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Nagoya's property market in 2026 is showing resilience, with prices holding steady despite rising interest rates and shifting buyer preferences toward station-close locations.
Whether you're eyeing a family-sized condo near Sakae or a detached house in the suburbs, understanding the current trends can help you make a smarter decision.
This article breaks down the latest Nagoya property prices, forecasts for 2026 and beyond, and which neighborhoods are worth watching.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Nagoya.
Insights
- Nagoya detached houses averaged ¥37.6 million in late 2025, while condos came in at ¥28.7 million, making Nagoya significantly more affordable than Tokyo for similar property types.
- Despite a roughly flat year-on-year price movement, Nagoya's land values in prime wards like Atsuta-ku and Nakamura-ku continued rising, creating a two-speed market.
- The Bank of Japan's policy rate at 0.75% and Flat 35 mortgage rates around 2.08% are putting a soft ceiling on bidding wars, especially in non-prime Nagoya locations.
- Condos near Nagoya Station and Sakae are holding value better than detached houses in distant suburbs because buyers are prioritizing convenience over space.
- The Meieki area around Nagoya Station is expected to lead price growth in 2026, driven by ongoing redevelopment projects that attract both residents and investors.
- Our 5-year forecast for Nagoya property prices sits between 12% and 18% total growth, translating to roughly 2.3% to 3.4% annually.
- Older condos with unclear maintenance reserves are becoming harder to sell in Nagoya, as rate-sensitive buyers now scrutinize building management more closely.
- Compact 1LDK and 2LDK condos near major rail lines offer the strongest rental property fundamentals in Nagoya's current market conditions.
What are the current property price trends in Nagoya as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Nagoya as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the average price for a detached house in Nagoya is approximately ¥37.6 million (around $250,000 USD or €235,000 EUR), while existing condominiums average about ¥28.7 million (roughly $191,000 USD or €179,000 EUR).
When looking at price per square meter, Nagoya condos currently trade at around ¥397,000 per square meter ($2,650 USD or €2,480 EUR per sqm), which gives you a cleaner way to compare different properties across the city.
For most buyers in Nagoya, a realistic budget covering roughly 80% of property purchases falls between ¥25 million and ¥45 million (approximately $167,000 to $300,000 USD or €156,000 to €281,000 EUR), depending on whether you choose a central condo or a suburban detached home.
How much have property prices increased in Nagoya over the past 12 months?
Property prices in Nagoya increased by approximately 1% overall from January 2025 to January 2026, which represents a notable slowdown from the stronger growth seen in previous years.
Looking at specific property types, the picture is mixed: resale condos in the Aichi prefecture area saw prices dip slightly by about 2%, while resale detached houses declined around 3%, but prime land values in central Nagoya wards still posted positive gains.
The single most significant factor behind this cooling is the shift in interest rates, with the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to 0.75% and long-term mortgage rates climbing to around 2.08%, which has made buyers more cautious about stretching their budgets.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Nagoya as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the top three neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Nagoya are Atsuta-ku (particularly the Kanayama corridor), Nakamura-ku (the Meieki area around Nagoya Station), and Naka-ku (including Sakae, Fushimi, and Marunouchi).
These leading areas have seen residential land values increase by roughly 3% to 5% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the citywide average of about 1%.
The main demand driver is rail connectivity and redevelopment activity, as all three areas benefit from excellent access to major train lines and ongoing urban renewal projects that make them increasingly attractive to both homeowners and investors.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Nagoya.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Japan. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Nagoya as of 2026?
As of January 2026, well-located condominiums near major stations are appreciating faster than detached houses in Nagoya, followed by newer detached homes in rail-connected suburbs, while older properties farther from stations lag behind.
The top-performing property type, station-close condos, is seeing appreciation rates of around 3% to 4% annually in prime locations like Meieki and Fushimi.
The main reason condos are outperforming is land scarcity combined with strong buyer preference for convenience, as Nagoya residents increasingly prioritize short commutes and walkable neighborhoods over larger floor plans.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much do properties cost in Nagoya?
- How much should you pay for a house in Nagoya?
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Nagoya?
- How much should you pay for a studio in Nagoya?
What is driving property prices up or down in Nagoya as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the three main factors driving Nagoya property prices are the Nagoya Station redevelopment creating localized demand, rising construction costs limiting new supply, and higher interest rates putting pressure on buyer affordability.
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure is the ongoing transformation of the Meieki area around Nagoya Station, which continues to attract residential demand into nearby neighborhoods and supports premium pricing for station-adjacent properties.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Nagoya here.
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What is the property price forecast for Nagoya in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Nagoya in 2026?
As of January 2026, property prices in Nagoya are expected to increase by approximately 2.5% over the course of the year, with condos likely rising 3% to 4% and detached houses seeing more modest gains of 1% to 2%.
Forecasts from different analysts range from roughly flat growth in a pessimistic scenario to around 4% in an optimistic scenario, depending on how interest rates and economic conditions evolve through the year.
The main assumption underlying most forecasts is that the Bank of Japan will maintain a gradual approach to rate normalization rather than implementing aggressive hikes, which would preserve reasonable affordability for Nagoya buyers.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Nagoya.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Nagoya in 2026?
As of January 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Nagoya are Nakamura-ku (Meieki and Nagoya Station area), Naka-ku (Fushimi, Marunouchi, and Sakae), and Atsuta-ku (the Kanayama corridor).
These top neighborhoods are projected to see price growth of 4% to 6% in 2026, roughly double the citywide average.
The primary catalyst is the concentration of redevelopment activity and transit infrastructure around these areas, which continues to attract both owner-occupiers seeking convenience and investors looking for liquidity.
One emerging neighborhood that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is the Kakuozan and Motoyama area in Chikusa-ku, where family-friendly appeal combined with excellent school reputations is drawing increased buyer interest.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Nagoya.
What property types will appreciate the most in Nagoya in 2026?
As of January 2026, condominiums near major transit hubs are expected to appreciate the most in Nagoya, particularly family-sized units (2LDK to 3LDK) within walking distance of stations like Nagoya, Fushimi, or Kanayama.
The projected appreciation for top-performing station-close condos in Nagoya is around 3% to 4% for the year.
The main demand trend driving this appreciation is the growing preference among Nagoya buyers for convenience and shorter commutes, even if it means accepting smaller living spaces.
On the flip side, older detached houses located far from train stations are expected to underperform because they require car ownership and often need costly renovations, making them less attractive to today's convenience-focused buyers.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Japan versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Nagoya in 2026?
As of January 2026, higher interest rates are putting a soft ceiling on Nagoya property price growth, with the most noticeable impact being reduced bidding competition and longer time-on-market for properties in non-prime locations.
The Bank of Japan's policy rate currently sits at 0.75%, and the most common Flat 35 long-term fixed mortgage rate is around 2.08%, which represents a meaningful increase from the near-zero rates of previous years.
Generally speaking, a 1% increase in mortgage rates reduces buyer purchasing power by roughly 10%, which in Nagoya translates to either lower maximum budgets or buyers accepting smaller or less central properties to stay within their monthly payment limits.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Japan.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Nagoya in 2026?
As of January 2026, the three biggest risks for Nagoya property prices are faster-than-expected interest rate hikes that could shock affordability, wage stagnation that would erode real purchasing power, and potential oversupply in certain condo micro-markets if investor demand cools.
The risk with the highest probability of materializing is continued pressure on affordability, as even modest additional rate increases could push some buyers out of the market entirely, particularly for properties that lack strong location fundamentals.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Nagoya.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Nagoya in 2026?
As of January 2026, buying a rental property in Nagoya can be a solid investment if you focus on well-located, liquid assets near major transit lines rather than chasing the highest nominal yields in inconvenient locations.
The strongest argument in favor of buying now is that Nagoya rental demand remains stable near employment centers like Meieki and Fushimi, and compact condos (1LDK or 2LDK) in these areas tend to stay occupied with minimal vacancy.
The strongest argument for waiting is that mortgage rates have increased meaningfully, which compresses your yield spread and means you need to be more selective about purchase price to make the numbers work.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Nagoya.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Nagoya.
Buying real estate in Nagoya can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Nagoya?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Nagoya as of 2026?
As of January 2026, cumulative property price growth in Nagoya over the next five years is expected to reach between 12% and 18% in total, with prime station-close properties likely landing at the higher end of that range.
Scenarios range from a conservative 10% total growth (if rates rise faster than expected or the economy weakens) to an optimistic 22% (if wage growth accelerates and construction costs stabilize).
This translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 2.3% to 3.4% per year for Nagoya residential property over the 2026 to 2031 period.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on is that Japan will maintain a moderate interest rate environment that is higher than the 2010s but still relatively low by global standards, preserving reasonable affordability for buyers.
Which areas in Nagoya will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The top three areas in Nagoya expected to have the best price growth over the next five years are Nakamura-ku (Meieki and Nagoya Station sphere), Naka-ku (Fushimi, Marunouchi, and Sakae), and Atsuta-ku (Kanayama access zones).
These top-performing areas are projected to see cumulative 5-year price growth of 18% to 25%, meaningfully outpacing the citywide average.
This is largely consistent with our shorter-term 2026 forecast because the same structural advantages (transit access, redevelopment, constrained supply) that drive near-term performance also support long-term appreciation.
One currently undervalued area with strong 5-year potential is the Yagoto neighborhood in Showa-ku, which combines family-friendly character, good schools, and solid rail connections at prices below the city core.
What property type will give the best return in Nagoya over 5 years as of 2026?
As of January 2026, well-located condominiums near major transit nodes are expected to give the best total return over five years in Nagoya, combining solid appreciation with reliable rental income potential.
The projected 5-year total return for top-performing station-close condos in Nagoya (appreciation plus rental income) is estimated at 25% to 35%, assuming moderate leverage and stable occupancy.
The main structural trend favoring condos is Nagoya's increasingly convenience-focused buyer base, which keeps demand concentrated in a limited number of well-connected locations where land is scarce.
For investors seeking a balance of return and lower risk, family-sized condos (2LDK to 3LDK) in established residential wards like Chikusa-ku or Showa-ku offer more defensive characteristics while still participating in the market's upside.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Nagoya over 5 years?
The top three infrastructure projects expected to impact Nagoya property prices over the next five years are the ongoing Nagoya Station area redevelopment, improvements to the Meieki-Sakae urban corridor, and general station facility upgrades along major rail lines.
Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Nagoya typically command a price premium of 5% to 15% compared to similar properties without such advantages, with the effect strongest within a 10-minute walk of upgraded stations.
The neighborhoods that will benefit most from these developments are Nakamura-ku (immediate Nagoya Station vicinity), Naka-ku (Sakae and Fushimi areas connected to the urban core), and parts of Atsuta-ku near the improved Kanayama interchange.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Nagoya in 5 years?
Population growth in Nagoya is projected to be modest over the next five years, but the key driver for property values will be household concentration in convenient urban locations rather than overall population numbers.
The demographic shift with the strongest influence on Nagoya property demand is the continued preference for smaller, higher-quality urban housing among younger households, which supports condo demand even as family sizes decline.
Migration patterns are expected to be neutral to slightly positive for Nagoya property values, as the city continues to attract workers from surrounding prefectures while also seeing some outflow to larger metros like Tokyo and Osaka.
The property types and areas that will benefit most from these demographic trends are compact to mid-sized condos in transit-rich wards like Nakamura-ku, Naka-ku, and Chikusa-ku, where convenience aligns with evolving lifestyle preferences.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Japan compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Nagoya?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Nagoya as of 2026?
As of January 2026, cumulative property price growth in Nagoya over the next ten years is expected to reach between 20% and 35% in total, with well-located condos likely at the higher end and older or poorly located properties potentially underperforming even this range.
Scenarios range from a conservative 15% total growth (if Japan faces economic headwinds or aggressive rate normalization) to an optimistic 45% (if inflation remains moderate and wages outpace prices).
This translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 1.8% to 3.0% per year for Nagoya residential property over the 2026 to 2036 period.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year predictions for Nagoya is the trajectory of Japan's interest rate policy, as the difference between a 1% and 3% long-term rate environment would dramatically change affordability dynamics and valuation multiples.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Nagoya?
The top three long-term economic factors that will shape Nagoya property prices over the next decade are Japan's interest rate regime, the balance between inflation and wage growth, and the continuing concentration of households into urban convenience locations.
The single factor with the most positive long-term impact will be sustained wage growth outpacing inflation, which would gradually improve real affordability and support healthy transaction volumes even at higher price levels.
The greatest structural risk to long-term Nagoya property values is the aging of building stock, as older condos with inadequate maintenance reserves and detached homes requiring seismic retrofits could become increasingly illiquid and drag down neighborhood averages.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Nagoya.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Nagoya, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why It's Authoritative | How We Used It |
|---|---|---|
| Chubu REINS (Nagoya City Snapshot) | Official realtor network transaction data for the Chubu region. | We used it to anchor actual closed transaction prices for detached houses and condos in Nagoya City. We also extracted price-per-square-meter figures for standardized comparisons. |
| Chubu REINS (Residential Land Time Series) | Monthly land transaction data from the same official REINS system. | We used it to estimate 12-month changes in land prices and cross-check market momentum. We treated it as transaction-mix sensitive and triangulated with appraisal data. |
| Chubu REINS (Aichi Condo Time Series) | One of the cleanest monthly resale condo series available in Japan. | We used it to track 12-month price changes in condo price-per-square-meter. We then localized findings to Nagoya City using the snapshot data. |
| Chubu REINS (Aichi Detached House Time Series) | Stable monthly series for resale detached houses in Aichi. | We used it to estimate year-on-year changes in detached house prices. We sanity-checked Nagoya City levels against the broader prefecture trend. |
| MLIT Residential Property Price Index | Japan's official home price index aligned with international standards. | We used it for big-picture direction at national and regional levels. We also used it to ground our methodology and avoid over-interpreting short-term noise. |
| MLIT Latest Release (Q3 2025) | Official government statistical release for the price index. | We used it to confirm prices were still rising at a broad level into late 2025. We contextualized Nagoya within big-city dynamics. |
| City of Nagoya Land Price Statistics | Official city portal based on MLIT Land Appraisal Committee data. | We used it to identify which wards are structurally expensive and likely to outperform. We kept our analysis uniquely Nagoya-focused rather than Tokyo-centric. |
| Aichi Prefecture Land Price Portal | Prefectural government's official hub for land price surveys. | We used it to validate that our land value narrative matches official survey frameworks. We also recommended it as a go-to for readers wanting primary data. |
| Daiwa Real Estate Appraisal (Nagoya Report 2025) | Major Japanese appraisal firm producing structured market reports. | We used it to identify which Nagoya wards are rising fastest and by how much. We connected price movements to Nagoya-specific drivers like the Station area. |
| Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision (Dec 2025) | Primary source for Japan's policy rate guidance. | We used it to anchor the interest rate environment as of January 2026. We translated policy shifts into implications for mortgages and pricing pressure. |
| Japan Housing Finance Agency (Flat 35 Rates) | Official public agency publishing Japan's most referenced fixed mortgage rates. | We used it to put real numbers on borrowing costs in January 2026. We explained why rate increases can cool prices with a lag. |
| Statistics Bureau of Japan (CPI Portal) | Japan's official inflation statistics source. | We used it as the inflation backdrop for why nominal prices can rise even if affordability feels tighter. We supported our construction cost narrative with this data. |
| Bank of Japan Inflation Outlook (FY2026) | BOJ's official forecast framework for inflation and economic activity. | We used it to frame a realistic 2026 macro scenario with inflation easing versus wages. We mapped that scenario into our Nagoya price forecast range. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following: