Is now a good time to buy a property in Nagoya? (January 2026)

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Japan Property Pack

Everything you need to know before buying real estate is included in our Japan Property Pack

Is it smart to buy now in Nagoya, or should I wait as of 2026?

Do real estate prices look too high in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, property prices in Nagoya are higher than a few years ago but still look reasonable compared to fundamentals, especially when you separate premium newer condos (which are pricey) from the broader used housing stock (which offers more accessible entry points).

One clear on-the-ground signal is that average used condos in Nagoya City are trading around ¥390,000 per square meter, while newer units under 5 years old command roughly double that at about ¥780,000 per square meter, which shows where the pricing heat is concentrated rather than spread across the whole market.

Another telling indicator is inventory depth: Aichi Prefecture still has thousands of for-sale listings for both new and used houses, so buyers are not facing the panic-inducing scarcity that typically drives prices into bubble territory.

You can also read our latest update regarding the housing prices in Nagoya.

Does a property price drop look likely in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of a meaningful property price decline in Nagoya over the next 12 months is low to medium, with no signs of an imminent crash but some softening possible in weaker segments.

If prices do move, we estimate a plausible range of flat to a modest 5% decline in vulnerable property types like older condos far from stations, while prime central properties could hold steady or even edge up slightly.

The single most important macro factor that would increase the odds of a price drop in Nagoya is continued Bank of Japan rate hikes, which squeeze mortgage affordability and shrink the pool of qualified buyers.

This factor is fairly likely to materialize in the coming months, as the BOJ raised rates to 0.75% in December 2025 and has signaled it will keep tightening if inflation persists.

Finally, please note that we cover the price trends for next year in our pack about the property market in Nagoya.

Could property prices jump again in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of a renewed broad-based price surge in Nagoya within the next 12 months is low, though selective jumps in prime locations remain possible.

If prices do rise, we estimate the upside for well-located central properties in Nagoya could be in the 3% to 7% range, while average or peripheral properties will likely stay flat or lag.

The single biggest demand-side trigger that could drive prices higher in Nagoya would be a pause or reversal in BOJ rate hikes, which would restore some mortgage affordability and bring hesitant buyers back into the market.

Please also note that we regularly publish and update real estate price forecasts for Nagoya here.

Are we in a buyer or a seller market in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the Nagoya market is closer to balanced overall, with a slight seller tilt in prime station-adjacent neighborhoods where well-priced listings move quickly.

In Aichi Prefecture, inventory counts show thousands of houses available for sale (roughly 2,700 to 3,600 new houses and over 5,000 used houses), which suggests buyers have meaningful choice and negotiating room in most segments.

Direct data on price reductions is limited, but the fact that inventory remains substantial rather than depleting suggests sellers in less desirable areas are not commanding as much leverage, while truly prime properties in central Nagoya still attract multiple interested buyers.

Are homes overpriced, or fairly priced in Nagoya as of 2026?

Are homes overpriced versus rents or versus incomes in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, homes in Nagoya appear moderately priced relative to rents and incomes, not cheap but not alarmingly stretched either, which makes affordability manageable for buyers who plan carefully.

The price-to-rent ratio in Nagoya sits around 15 to 16 in central areas, which is lower than Tokyo's and suggests that buying can make financial sense over renting within a reasonable time horizon.

The price-to-income ratio in Nagoya is approximately 4.2, which is considered manageable by Japanese standards and means a typical household earning the median income would need about 4 years of gross earnings to cover the average home price.

Finally please note that you will have all the indicators you need in our property pack covering the real estate market in Nagoya.

Are home prices above the long-term average in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, Nagoya home prices are above levels from a few years ago and clearly in an upward phase compared to the post-pandemic recovery period, though they remain well below the infamous 1990 bubble peak in inflation-adjusted terms.

Over the past 12 months, residential land prices in the Greater Nagoya Area rose around 2.8% according to official government data, which is above the long-run average pace but not an alarming spike.

When adjusted for inflation, current Nagoya prices remain substantially below the early 1990s bubble peak, so while prices feel elevated compared to recent years, they are not in historically unprecedented territory.

What local changes could move prices in Nagoya as of 2026?

Are big infrastructure projects coming to Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the biggest planned infrastructure project in Nagoya is the Chuo Shinkansen (SCMAGLEV), which will eventually connect Nagoya to Tokyo in about 40 minutes and could significantly boost property values near Nagoya Station over the long term.

The timeline for this project is long: construction is ongoing, but full commercial service is not expected for several more years due to engineering challenges and local approval processes, so buyers should not expect an immediate price bump from this catalyst.

For the latest updates on the local projects, you can read our property market analysis about Nagoya here.

Are zoning or building rules changing in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the most important building-related pressure in Nagoya is not a specific zoning headline but rather the combination of rising construction costs and new energy efficiency standards (introduced April 2025), which are making new builds more expensive and complex to deliver.

If there were a major zoning change allowing higher density in central Nagoya, it could theoretically ease supply constraints and moderate prices, but no such sweeping reform is currently on the table.

The areas most affected by current construction constraints are central redevelopment zones like the Nagoya Station district, where Meitetsu has publicly indicated a schedule review for its major project due to contractor capacity and cost pressures.

Are foreign-buyer or mortgage rules changing in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, there are no new restrictions targeting foreign buyers in Nagoya, but the practical effect of BOJ rate hikes is tightening mortgage affordability for everyone, which effectively acts like a cooling rule even without formal policy changes.

Japan remains an open market for foreign property ownership, so there are no bans, quotas, or new foreign-buyer taxes being seriously considered at this time.

The most meaningful change for borrowers is the rise in benchmark rates: Flat 35 long-term fixed mortgages now sit around 2.08%, and variable-rate borrowers should expect banks to pass along further BOJ hikes as they come.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Japan.

Will it be easy to find tenants in Nagoya as of 2026?

Is the renter pool growing faster than new supply in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, renter demand and new supply in Nagoya appear roughly in balance, with household counts staying stable around 1.19 million while new housing starts have actually declined in the Greater Nagoya Area.

The best signal for renter demand is Nagoya's household count, which has grown to nearly 1.2 million households, meaning the base of potential renters remains large even as overall population growth has flattened.

On the supply side, new housing starts in Greater Nagoya dropped by about 9.5% year-over-year in recent data, which means landlords are not facing a flood of competing new units hitting the rental market.

Are days-on-market for rentals falling in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, precise days-on-market data for rentals in Nagoya is not widely published, but institutional occupancy indicators suggest units are filling at a steady pace without dramatic acceleration or slowdowns.

The difference in leasing speed between "best areas" like Sakae, Naka-ku, Higashi-ku and weaker peripheral areas is significant, with central units near major stations typically renting within weeks while outlying properties may sit for a month or longer.

One common reason rental days-on-market falls in Nagoya is the spring moving season (March to April), when job transfers and university enrollments create a surge in demand that absorbs available units quickly.

Are vacancies dropping in the best areas of Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, vacancy trends in Nagoya's best rental areas like Sakae, Naka-ku, Fushimi, and the Nagoya Station (Meieki) district appear stable to slightly tightening, supported by steady corporate and young professional demand.

In these prime areas, vacancy rates are estimated to be lower than the citywide average, though exact figures are not publicly broken out, because demand consistently exceeds supply near top rail connections.

One practical sign that "best areas" are tightening first in Nagoya is that newer, well-located units are increasingly listed with zero key money or deposit to attract tenants quickly, which suggests landlords are confident units will fill and can afford to waive upfront fees.

By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current rent levels in Nagoya.

Am I buying into a tightening market in Nagoya as of 2026?

Is for-sale inventory shrinking in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, for-sale inventory in Nagoya and Aichi Prefecture has not dramatically shrunk compared to last year, with thousands of listings still available across both new and used house segments.

In Aichi, months-of-supply appears to be in a healthy range for buyers, with inventory counts suggesting roughly 6 to 9 months of supply for houses depending on the segment, which typically indicates a balanced market rather than a seller-dominated squeeze.

One reason inventory is not collapsing in Nagoya is that higher mortgage rates have caused some sellers to list while also causing some buyers to pause, which keeps the market from tilting too hard in either direction.

Are homes selling faster in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, precise median days-on-market data for Nagoya is not consistently published, but transaction volumes and price stability suggest homes are selling at a steady pace without dramatic speedups or slowdowns.

Year-over-year, the market appears neither significantly faster nor slower, with well-priced properties in good locations still moving within reasonable timeframes while overpriced or poorly located homes sitting longer.

Are new listings slowing down in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, new for-sale listings in Nagoya do not appear to have dramatically slowed, though we cannot pinpoint an exact year-over-year percentage because detailed monthly listing flow data is not consistently published for this market.

Seasonally, new listings in Nagoya typically peak around spring (ahead of the fiscal year change in April) and slow during summer and year-end, and current levels appear to be following this normal pattern.

One plausible reason some owners may be hesitant to list is rate lock-in: sellers who financed at ultra-low rates years ago are reluctant to give up their favorable mortgage terms, which reduces churn in the market.

Is new construction failing to keep up in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, new housing construction in Greater Nagoya is declining (down roughly 9.5% year-over-year) rather than surging, which means new supply is not flooding the market but also may not fully meet demand in prime areas.

The trend in housing starts and permits across Japan and Nagoya specifically has been downward, driven by higher construction costs and labor shortages that make new projects less profitable.

The single biggest bottleneck limiting new construction in Nagoya is construction cost inflation: materials and labor costs are estimated to be 25% to 29% higher than in early 2021, which squeezes builder margins and delays projects.

Will it be easy to sell later in Nagoya as of 2026?

Is resale liquidity strong enough in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, resale liquidity in Nagoya is reasonably strong for well-located and sensibly priced properties, with an active transaction market supported by Chubu REINS and a broad base of potential buyers.

Median days-on-market for resale homes in Nagoya is difficult to pin down precisely, but well-priced properties in central wards typically sell within 30 to 90 days, which falls within a healthy liquidity range for a regional Japanese city.

The property characteristic that most improves resale liquidity in Nagoya is proximity to a major rail station: homes within a 10-minute walk of stations like Nagoya, Kanayama, Sakae, or Fushimi consistently attract more buyer interest and sell faster than equivalent properties farther from transit.

Is selling time getting longer in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, selling time in Nagoya has not dramatically lengthened compared to last year, though higher mortgage rates are reducing the pool of qualified buyers and may cause some listings to sit slightly longer.

The realistic range of days-on-market across most listings in Nagoya spans from about 30 days for prime central properties to 90 days or more for older homes in less desirable locations or with challenging features.

One clear reason selling time could lengthen in Nagoya is affordability pressure: as mortgage rates rise (Flat 35 now around 2.08%) and prices stay elevated, fewer buyers can qualify for loans, which stretches out the time needed to find a matching buyer.

Is it realistic to exit with profit in Nagoya as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of selling with a profit in Nagoya is medium, provided you buy wisely, hold for an adequate period, and avoid overpaying for hype or speculative locations.

The minimum holding period in Nagoya that most often makes exiting with profit realistic is about 7 to 10 years, which allows you to absorb transaction costs, ride through potential flat periods, and benefit from any long-term appreciation.

Total round-trip transaction costs in Japan (buying plus selling) typically run 10% to 15% of the property value, which works out to roughly ¥3 to ¥4.5 million on a ¥30 million property (approximately $20,000 to $30,000 USD or €18,000 to €27,000 EUR at recent exchange rates).

One clear factor that most increases profit odds in Nagoya is buying in a stable or improving neighborhood near major rail lines, since these properties retain demand through market cycles and attract buyers when you eventually sell.

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Nagoya, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.