Is right now a good time to buy a property in Tokyo? (2026)

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Japan Property Pack

Yes, the analysis of Tokyo's property market is included in our pack

Is it smart to buy now in Tokyo, or should I wait as of 2026?

Do real estate prices look too high in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, property prices in Tokyo's 23 wards appear stretched compared to historical norms, with used condos now averaging above 100 million yen for a 70 square meter unit, though rising rents provide some fundamental support for these elevated levels.

One clear signal from Tokyo's listings data is that prime properties in desirable locations are still selling quickly, which suggests that despite high prices, buyer demand remains strong enough to absorb well-priced inventory.

However, properties with compromises like poor building management, inconvenient station access, or awkward layouts are sitting longer on the market, indicating that buyers have become more selective and are no longer paying top prices for anything.

You can also read our latest update regarding the housing prices in Tokyo.

Does a property price drop look likely in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of a meaningful property price drop in Tokyo over the next 12 months is low to medium, because structural demand from jobs, migration, and foreign investors continues to support central Tokyo, even as higher mortgage rates create headwinds.

A plausible range for Tokyo property price changes over the next year would be somewhere between minus 5% in weaker submarkets to plus 5% in the best central locations, with most properties likely seeing flat to modest gains.

The single most important macro factor that could trigger a price drop in Tokyo would be a faster-than-expected rise in Bank of Japan interest rates, which would directly increase mortgage payments and reduce what buyers can afford to bid.

However, the BOJ has signaled a gradual approach to rate normalization, so a sharp rate spike is unlikely, though rates are expected to edge higher through 2026, keeping affordability pressure as a background risk rather than an immediate shock.

Finally, please note that we cover the price trends for next year in our pack about the property market in Tokyo.

Could property prices jump again in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of a renewed price surge in Tokyo is medium, particularly concentrated in prime central wards and neighborhoods benefiting from new infrastructure projects, though a broad market-wide jump is less probable given higher financing costs.

A plausible upside scenario could see prices in the best Tokyo locations rise by 5 to 8% over the next 12 months, especially in areas with limited new supply and strong foreign buyer interest.

The single biggest demand-side trigger that could push Tokyo prices higher would be continued yen weakness, which makes Tokyo property significantly cheaper for overseas buyers from Hong Kong, Singapore, the United States, and other markets, drawing more foreign capital into the market.

Please also note that we regularly publish and update real estate price forecasts for Tokyo here.

Are we in a buyer or a seller market in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, Tokyo's residential market leans toward sellers in prime central locations where inventory is tight and demand is strong, while outer wards and less convenient areas offer more balanced conditions where buyers have room to negotiate.

The months-of-inventory in Tokyo's resale condo market has stayed relatively tight, generally below six months in popular wards like Minato, Shibuya, and Chuo, which typically signals that sellers have the upper hand because buyers compete for limited stock.

The share of listings with price reductions tends to be higher for older properties, units in buildings with management issues, or locations far from train stations, which tells you that seller leverage disappears quickly once a property has any real drawbacks.

Are homes overpriced, or fairly priced in Tokyo as of 2026?

Are homes overpriced versus rents or versus incomes in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, Tokyo homes appear stretched versus incomes but more reasonably priced versus rents, with gross rental yields around 4% suggesting that high prices are at least partly justified by strong rental demand rather than pure speculation.

The price-to-rent ratio in Tokyo's 23 wards works out to roughly 25 times annual rent for a typical condo, which is elevated compared to a balanced market benchmark of around 15 to 20 times, indicating that buying is expensive relative to renting.

The price-to-income multiple in Tokyo is even more stretched, with a 100 million yen condo representing 12 to 14 times the average household income, well above the 5 to 7 times range that is considered affordable in most international markets.

Finally please note that you will have all the indicators you need in our property pack covering the real estate market in Tokyo.

Are home prices above the long-term average in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, Tokyo property prices are clearly above their long-term historical average, with the 23-ward condo market having posted consecutive record highs and sitting well above pre-pandemic levels.

Over the past 12 months, Tokyo residential prices have risen by roughly 8 to 10%, which is faster than the long-run pace of 2 to 3% annual appreciation that characterized the more stable pre-2020 period.

In inflation-adjusted terms, Tokyo prices have likely surpassed their prior cycle peak from the late 1980s bubble for prime central condos, though the broader market remains more mixed, with outer areas and older stock still trading below historical highs in real terms.

What local changes could move prices in Tokyo as of 2026?

Are big infrastructure projects coming to Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the most impactful planned infrastructure project for Tokyo residential prices is the Haneda Airport Access Line, which will create faster direct connections from central and eastern Tokyo to Haneda Airport and is expected to boost property values in areas along its route.

The Haneda Airport Access Line has received approval and is under construction, with JR East targeting completion around 2031, meaning neighborhoods like Shinagawa, Tamachi, and eastern waterfront areas could see gradual price appreciation as the opening date approaches.

For the latest updates on the local projects, you can read our property market analysis about Tokyo here.

Are zoning or building rules changing in Tokyo as of 2026?

The most important building rule change being discussed in Tokyo relates to stricter energy efficiency standards for new construction, which will affect eligibility for mortgage tax deductions and could increase construction costs for developers.

As of early 2026, these building efficiency requirements are unlikely to directly lower property prices, but they could reduce the supply of new affordable units as developers pass on higher construction costs, which may indirectly support existing property values.

The areas most affected would be locations with significant redevelopment activity like Shinagawa, Shibuya, and the Tokyo Bay waterfront, where new projects must meet these updated standards while competing with older buildings that were built under less stringent rules.

Are foreign-buyer or mortgage rules changing in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the biggest rule change affecting Tokyo buyers is not a foreign-buyer restriction but rather the shift in mortgage rates, with Flat 35 long-term fixed rates now around 2% compared to the ultra-low levels below 1.5% that prevailed in previous years.

The Japanese government has discussed potential regulations on foreign real estate ownership, with some observers expecting deliberations during the 2026 Diet session, which could actually trigger a wave of last-minute purchases by foreign buyers trying to get in before any restrictions take effect.

On the mortgage side, banks have been gradually raising variable loan rates following Bank of Japan policy shifts, and further increases are expected through 2026, which will directly impact monthly payments and reduce the maximum price many domestic buyers can afford.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Japan.

Will it be easy to find tenants in Tokyo as of 2026?

Is the renter pool growing faster than new supply in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, renter demand in Tokyo's central wards appears to be outpacing new rental supply, as evidenced by rising rents and very low vacancy rates in desirable neighborhoods.

Tokyo continues to attract net migration from other parts of Japan, with young professionals and dual-income households drawn to employment opportunities in the city, creating steady household formation that feeds directly into rental demand.

New residential construction has been constrained by rising material costs and limited prime land availability, with housing starts in Greater Tokyo falling sharply in recent years and failing to keep pace with the number of households seeking rental units in popular areas.

Are days-on-market for rentals falling in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, rental properties in Tokyo's prime central wards are leasing quickly, with well-located units in areas like Minato, Shibuya, and Meguro often finding tenants within days or a couple of weeks, indicating tight market conditions.

There is a noticeable gap in leasing speed between the best areas and weaker locations, with centrally located units near major train stations leasing much faster than properties in outer wards or buildings with dated facilities.

One key reason days-on-market stays low in Tokyo's prime areas is persistent undersupply, as new construction cannot keep up with demand from the steady flow of workers relocating to the city and the return of international tenants after the pandemic.

Are vacancies dropping in the best areas of Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, vacancy rates in Tokyo's best rental areas like Minato (Azabu, Roppongi), Shibuya (Ebisu, Daikanyama), Chuo (Tsukishima, Kachidoki), and Koto (Toyosu) remain extremely low, typically around 4 to 5% or even lower, and are not showing signs of rising.

These prime areas maintain vacancy rates well below the citywide average, which includes older stock in less desirable locations, with occupancy rates often exceeding 96% in well-managed rental buildings.

A practical sign that the best Tokyo rental areas are tightening is that landlords are increasingly switching tenants to fixed-term leases, which allows them to renegotiate rents at renewal rather than being locked into below-market rates, a behavior you only see when landlords feel confident about tenant demand.

By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current rent levels in Tokyo.

Am I buying into a tightening market in Tokyo as of 2026?

Is for-sale inventory shrinking in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, for-sale inventory in Tokyo's resale market has remained relatively constrained compared to historical averages, with no significant surge in listings despite high prices, which suggests a tightening rather than loosening market.

Months-of-supply in popular Tokyo wards typically hovers around 4 to 6 months for well-priced properties, which is below the 6 to 8 month range that would indicate a more balanced market and suggests that buyers still face meaningful competition.

One reason inventory stays tight is that current owners, especially those who locked in low mortgage rates in previous years, are reluctant to sell and give up their favorable financing, which keeps new listings from flooding the market even as prices reach record levels.

Are homes selling faster in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, well-priced homes in desirable Tokyo locations are selling relatively quickly, with quality properties near major train stations often receiving offers within a few weeks, though less attractive listings can sit for months.

Year-over-year, the market has not seen a dramatic acceleration in selling speed for average properties, but the gap between "good" and "compromised" inventory has widened, meaning buyers are pickier but still move fast when they find the right property.

Are new listings slowing down in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, new for-sale listings in Tokyo have not been surging despite record prices, which suggests that potential sellers are holding back, likely anchored to past valuations or reluctant to trade their low-rate mortgages for higher borrowing costs on a new property.

Seasonally, Tokyo's listing activity typically picks up in spring and autumn, but even during these peak periods, the flow of new inventory has remained below what you would expect in a market where prices have risen so significantly.

The most plausible reason new listings are slow is that many Tokyo homeowners simply do not feel compelled to sell, as they are comfortable in their current homes and the higher rate environment makes "move-up" buying less attractive.

Is new construction failing to keep up in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, new housing construction in Greater Tokyo is failing to keep pace with household demand, with the number of new condo units hitting multi-decade lows and developers constrained by high land costs, rising material prices, and labor shortages.

Housing starts data from official sources shows a declining trend in new completions, with Greater Tokyo seeing a roughly 17% drop in new condo supply in recent years, tightening the market and pushing more buyers toward the resale segment.

The single biggest bottleneck limiting new construction in Tokyo is the combination of soaring construction costs and limited availability of developable land in prime locations, which makes it difficult for developers to launch projects that pencil out at prices buyers can afford.

Will it be easy to sell later in Tokyo as of 2026?

Is resale liquidity strong enough in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, resale liquidity in Tokyo remains strong for well-located properties, with condos in the 23 wards near major train lines consistently attracting buyer interest and selling within reasonable timeframes when priced correctly.

Median days-on-market for resale homes in prime Tokyo areas typically ranges from 2 to 4 months, which is healthy by international standards and suggests that sellers can exit their investments without excessive waiting periods.

The property characteristic that most improves resale liquidity in Tokyo is proximity to a major train station, ideally within a 10-minute walk of the Yamanote Line or a Metro hub, because this access directly translates to tenant demand and buyer interest.

Is selling time getting longer in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, selling time in Tokyo has not dramatically lengthened for quality properties, though less desirable units are experiencing longer wait times as buyers become more selective amid higher financing costs.

Current median days-on-market in Tokyo varies widely, ranging from as little as 30 days for prime centrally located condos to 90 days or more for older buildings, inconvenient locations, or units with management issues.

One clear reason selling time can lengthen in Tokyo is affordability pressure from rising mortgage rates, which reduces the buyer pool and makes it harder for sellers to find qualified purchasers willing to meet their asking prices.

Is it realistic to exit with profit in Tokyo as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of exiting with a profit in Tokyo is medium to high if you hold for a reasonable period and buy a quality property in a good location, though the easy gains of the past few years are probably behind us.

A realistic minimum holding period in Tokyo to cover transaction costs and have a reasonable chance of selling at a profit is typically 5 to 7 years, though shorter holds can work if you buy at a genuine discount or benefit from area-specific appreciation.

Total round-trip transaction costs in Tokyo, including buying and selling fees, typically run around 8 to 12% of the property value, which translates to roughly 8 to 12 million yen on a 100 million yen property (approximately 55,000 to 80,000 USD or 50,000 to 75,000 EUR at current rates).

One factor that most increases your profit odds in Tokyo is buying a property that tenants genuinely want to rent, because this gives you income during the hold period and ensures a deeper pool of potential buyers when you sell.

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Tokyo, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.