Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Japan Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Tokyo's property market is included in our pack
Tokyo's property market continues to draw attention from buyers worldwide, with prices reaching new highs in many central neighborhoods.
This article breaks down what's really happening with Tokyo housing prices in 2026, where values are headed, and what it means if you're thinking about buying.
We update this blog post regularly to reflect the latest data and market shifts.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Tokyo.
Insights
- Tokyo property prices rose between 6% and 9% over the past year, but central ward condos outpaced the average with gains of 8% to 15%.
- A typical 70 square meter existing condo in Tokyo's 23 wards now costs around 105 million yen, which is roughly 700,000 USD or 650,000 EUR.
- New-build condos in Tokyo's central wards are selling at approximately 1.8 million yen per square meter, setting the ceiling for resale prices.
- Minato, Shibuya, and Chuo wards are seeing the fastest price growth in Tokyo, driven by limited supply and redevelopment projects near major rail hubs.
- The Bank of Japan's gradual rate hikes are starting to cool demand in outer Tokyo areas, while prime neighborhoods remain resilient due to cash buyers and global interest.
- Tokyo's continued population inflow from other parts of Japan supports rental demand and keeps resale liquidity strong compared to the national average.
- Over the next five years, Tokyo property prices could rise between 12% and 25% cumulatively, with central condos potentially gaining 20% to 35%.
- The Takanawa Gateway and Toranomon redevelopment zones are expected to be among Tokyo's strongest performers through 2031.
- Detached houses in Tokyo are appreciating more slowly than condos, typically gaining 3% to 6% annually, and are more sensitive to interest rate changes.
What are the current property price trends in Tokyo as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Tokyo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the average price for a typical purchased home in Tokyo is around 75 million yen, which works out to approximately 500,000 USD or 465,000 EUR.
When you look at price per square meter, the Tokyo-wide blended average sits at roughly 1.1 million yen per square meter, or about 7,300 USD and 6,800 EUR per square meter.
That said, Tokyo's market varies enormously by location and property type, so the realistic price range that covers about 80% of property purchases in Tokyo runs from around 40 million yen to 130 million yen, or roughly 265,000 to 865,000 USD and 245,000 to 805,000 EUR.
How much have property prices increased in Tokyo over the past 12 months?
Over the past 12 months leading into January 2026, Tokyo residential property prices have increased by an estimated 6% to 9% on a blended basis across all property types.
However, the range varies quite a bit depending on what you're looking at: condos in central wards have jumped 8% to 15%, while detached houses across Tokyo have risen a more modest 3% to 6%.
The single biggest factor behind this price movement has been the ongoing supply squeeze in Tokyo's prime areas, where land is scarce, construction costs keep climbing, and new-build pricing continues to set ever-higher benchmarks for the resale market.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Tokyo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the three Tokyo neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices are Minato (especially Azabudai, Toranomon, and Roppongi), Shibuya (particularly around Shibuya Station and Ebisu), and Chuo (notably Nihonbashi and the Kachidoki tower belt).
Annual price growth in these top neighborhoods is running between 10% and 18%, with some ultra-prime pockets in Minato pushing even higher due to new luxury tower completions.
The main demand driver behind this growth is the combination of major redevelopment projects, excellent rail connectivity, and extremely limited new land supply, which creates intense competition among buyers for a shrinking pool of quality properties.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Tokyo.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Japan. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Tokyo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the ranking of property types by appreciation rate in Tokyo goes: new-build condos in prime wards (fastest), followed by existing condos in central wards, then well-located detached houses, and finally outer-area homes (slowest).
The top performer, new-build condos in prime locations, is appreciating at roughly 10% to 15% annually, though this partly reflects the premium pricing set by developers on limited inventory.
The main reason condos are outperforming other property types in Tokyo is that land scarcity and high construction costs make new supply expensive, which pulls up resale values, while strong demand from both domestic and international buyers keeps competition fierce for central locations.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much do properties cost in Tokyo?
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Tokyo?
- How much should you pay for a studio in Tokyo?
What is driving property prices up or down in Tokyo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three factors driving Tokyo property prices are supply constraints combined with rising construction costs, strong population inflows into Greater Tokyo, and the Bank of Japan's gradual interest rate normalization.
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure on Tokyo property prices right now is the tight supply of developable land in central areas, which keeps new-build pricing at record levels and supports resale values even as rates tick higher.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Tokyo here.
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What is the property price forecast for Tokyo in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, we expect Tokyo property prices to increase by 3% to 6% over the calendar year on a blended basis across all residential types.
The realistic range of forecasts from different analysts runs from about 2% on the conservative end to around 8% on the optimistic side, with most estimates clustering in the 4% to 6% range for the overall market.
The main assumption underlying most price increase forecasts for Tokyo is that interest rates will rise only gradually and that employment and wage growth will remain stable enough to support buyer demand, especially in the central wards.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Tokyo.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Tokyo are Toranomon and Azabudai in Minato, the Takanawa Gateway area straddling Shinagawa and Minato, and Nihonbashi in Chuo ward.
Projected price growth for these top Tokyo neighborhoods ranges from 8% to 12% over the course of 2026, with some premium micro-locations potentially exceeding that if new developments sell out quickly.
The primary catalyst driving expected growth in these neighborhoods is major mixed-use redevelopment that improves walkability, adds retail and office amenities, and attracts international residents and investors seeking Tokyo's best addresses.
One emerging neighborhood in Tokyo that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is Nakano, which combines strong rail connectivity with relatively affordable pricing compared to neighboring Shinjuku, making it attractive to young professionals and families.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Tokyo.
What property types will appreciate the most in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, the property type expected to appreciate the most in Tokyo is prime and near-prime condos, both new-build and high-quality existing units in central wards.
The projected appreciation for top-performing condos in Tokyo's best locations is between 8% and 12% for 2026, though individual buildings near major redevelopment projects could see even stronger gains.
The main demand trend driving appreciation for Tokyo condos is the combination of scarce new supply, high construction costs that keep developer pricing elevated, and sustained interest from both domestic upgraders and international buyers seeking a foothold in one of Asia's most stable markets.
The property type expected to underperform in Tokyo in 2026 is car-dependent detached houses in outer areas, which face weaker demand as interest rates rise and younger buyers increasingly prefer convenient, station-adjacent locations.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Japan versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, rising interest rates are expected to have a moderate cooling effect on Tokyo property prices, particularly in the outer areas and for buyers who depend heavily on mortgage financing.
The Bank of Japan has signaled it will continue raising rates gradually, with the benchmark policy rate expected to move higher through 2026, which means mortgage rates will likely climb from their historically low levels.
A 1% increase in mortgage rates typically reduces buying power by about 10% to 12% at Tokyo's current price levels, which can push marginal buyers out of the market or force them to look at smaller units or less central locations.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Japan.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, the three biggest risks for Tokyo property prices are faster-than-expected interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, a broader economic slowdown in Japan or globally that hurts employment and bonuses, and persistent construction cost inflation that limits new supply while also squeezing affordability.
The risk with the highest probability of materializing in Tokyo's market is a mild cooling in transaction volumes if rates rise more quickly than anticipated, which would affect outer areas first while prime locations stay more resilient due to their higher share of cash buyers.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Tokyo.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, buying a rental property in Tokyo is generally a reasonable decision for investors who focus on well-located units near major train stations, though careful selection matters more than ever given rising rates.
The strongest argument in favor of buying a rental property in Tokyo now is that population inflows continue to support rental demand, vacancy rates remain low in central areas, and Tokyo's status as a global city provides a structural floor for both rents and resale values.
The strongest argument for waiting before buying a rental property in Tokyo is that interest rates are still rising, which compresses rental yields at current price levels, and prices in some areas may soften enough over the next year or two to offer better entry points.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Tokyo.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Tokyo.
Buying real estate in Tokyo can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Tokyo?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Tokyo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, we estimate that Tokyo property prices will grow by 12% to 25% cumulatively over the next five years, with prime central condos potentially gaining 20% to 35% and outer areas rising a more modest 5% to 15%.
The range of 5-year forecasts spans from a conservative scenario of around 10% total growth if rates rise sharply and the economy slows, to an optimistic scenario of 30% or more if Tokyo continues attracting global capital and supply stays constrained.
That translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 2% to 5% per year over the next five years in Tokyo, depending on where you buy and how the macro environment evolves.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on for their 5-year Tokyo property predictions is that the city will maintain its population inflow advantage over the rest of Japan and continue functioning as a safe, liquid real estate market that attracts both domestic and international buyers.
Which areas in Tokyo will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The three areas in Tokyo expected to have the best price growth over the next five years are the Shinagawa and Takanawa Gateway zone, the Toranomon and Azabudai redevelopment corridor in Minato, and the Nihonbashi and Yaesu fringe area in Chuo ward.
Projected 5-year cumulative price growth for these top-performing Tokyo areas ranges from 25% to 40%, assuming redevelopment timelines stay on track and demand from high-income buyers remains solid.
This largely mirrors our shorter-term forecast, but the 5-year horizon allows emerging areas like Toyosu in Koto ward, Sumida near riverside redevelopments, and Nakano to catch up as infrastructure improvements complete and awareness builds.
The currently undervalued Tokyo area with the best potential for outperformance over five years is probably Sumida ward, where riverside regeneration projects are underway but prices still lag behind neighboring central wards.
What property type will give the best return in Tokyo over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the property type expected to give the best total return over five years in Tokyo is a high-quality existing condo in a well-maintained building near a major train station, which balances appreciation potential with rental income.
The projected 5-year total return for this top-performing property type in Tokyo, combining price appreciation and net rental income, is roughly 25% to 45%, though this varies significantly by exact location and building quality.
The main structural trend favoring existing condos over the next five years in Tokyo is that new-build supply remains expensive and limited, which keeps pushing resale values higher for good buildings, while rental demand from Tokyo's steady population inflows supports consistent income.
For buyers who want a balance of return and lower risk over five years in Tokyo, station-adjacent existing condos in the 50 to 70 square meter range offer the best combination of liquidity, rental appeal, and price resilience during market dips.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Tokyo over 5 years?
The three major infrastructure projects expected to impact Tokyo property prices most over the next five years are the ongoing Takanawa Gateway area development, the Shibuya Station complex expansion, and various Nihonbashi waterfront and underground walkway improvements in Chuo ward.
Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Tokyo typically see a price premium of 5% to 15% compared to similar units further from the improvements, with the effect strongest for residential within a 5-minute walk of new station facilities or public realm upgrades.
The specific Tokyo neighborhoods that will benefit most from these infrastructure developments are the immediate surroundings of Takanawa Gateway Station, the Shibuya and Ebisu corridor, and the blocks connecting Nihonbashi to Tokyo Station via new underground routes.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Tokyo in 5 years?
Tokyo's population is projected to remain stable or grow slightly over the next five years thanks to continued domestic migration from other parts of Japan, and this inflow is expected to support property values by maintaining demand for both rentals and purchases.
The demographic shift with the strongest influence on Tokyo property demand over five years will be the continued growth of single-person and two-person households, which increases demand for compact and mid-sized units near transit rather than large suburban homes.
Migration patterns, both domestic workers moving to Tokyo for jobs and a modest increase in international residents, are expected to keep Tokyo's housing market more resilient than Japan's national average, where population decline is already putting downward pressure on prices.
The property types and areas in Tokyo that will benefit most from these demographic trends are one-bedroom and two-bedroom condos in well-connected wards like Shibuya, Shinjuku, Minato, and Meguro, which appeal to young professionals and international tenants.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Japan compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Tokyo?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Tokyo as of 2026?
As of early 2026, we estimate that Tokyo property prices will grow by 20% to 50% cumulatively over the next ten years, with prime condos potentially reaching the higher end and outer areas landing closer to the lower end of that range.
The range of 10-year forecasts for Tokyo spans from a conservative scenario of around 15% total growth if interest rates settle higher and economic growth disappoints, to an optimistic scenario of 60% or more if Tokyo cements its position as Asia's top safe-haven real estate market.
That works out to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 2% to 4% per year over the next decade in Tokyo, though the actual path will likely include some years of stronger growth and occasional flat or slightly down years.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Tokyo is where Japanese interest rates ultimately settle after the current normalization cycle ends, since that will determine long-term affordability and investor appetite.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Tokyo?
The three long-term economic factors that will shape Tokyo property prices most over the next decade are where interest rates stabilize after normalization, whether real wage growth keeps pace with inflation, and Tokyo's ability to continue attracting population and capital from the rest of Japan and abroad.
The single long-term factor likely to have the most positive impact on Tokyo property values is the city's enduring appeal as a global financial and cultural hub, which should continue drawing residents, businesses, and investors even as Japan's overall population shrinks.
The single long-term factor posing the greatest structural risk to Tokyo property values is a scenario where interest rates rise significantly higher than expected and stay elevated, which would squeeze affordability and potentially trigger a prolonged period of flat or declining prices in all but the most prime locations.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Tokyo.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Tokyo, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why It's Authoritative | How We Used It |
|---|---|---|
| MLIT (Ministry of Land, Japan) | Japan's national ministry that publishes official land-market statistics and policy reporting. | We used it to anchor the ground truth on land-price direction, which is a key input cost for homes. We also checked private indices against official land-price momentum. |
| REINS Market Watch | The MLIT-designated real estate distribution organization compiling actual transaction data. | We used it for transaction-level trends including price, price per square meter, volume, and inventory. We triangulated how broad price growth is beyond luxury hotspots. |
| Bank of Japan Outlook (Oct 2025) | The central bank's official macro outlook that shapes rates, lending conditions, and confidence. | We used it to frame the 2026 macro backdrop that typically drives mortgage rates and buyer budgets. We also used it as a baseline for our 2026 to 2031 scenarios. |
| Bank of Japan Outlook (Full Version) | Same official BOJ outlook, with extended tables and detailed assumptions. | We cross-checked our narrative against the projection tables. We kept our forecasts consistent with the BOJ's baseline scenario. |
| OECD Economic Outlook (Japan) | A major international organization with standardized country forecasts and assumptions. | We used it to triangulate BOJ and IMF views on 2026 growth and risk balance. We stress-tested our soft landing versus slowdown price paths. |
| IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct 2025) | A top-tier global macro authority used by governments, investors, and central banks. | We used it to corroborate Japan's 2026 macro direction including growth, inflation, and global trade conditions. We also used it for longer-horizon context on what could derail the cycle. |
| BIS Residential Property Price Statistics | The BIS compiles cross-country house-price statistics used widely by central banks. | We used it to benchmark Japan's national house-price cycle versus other advanced economies. We avoided Tokyo-only tunnel vision when discussing long-run mean reversion. |
| FRED (BIS Japan Series) | Republishes BIS series with clean charting and downloads for easy verification. | We used it as a quick, verifiable time series for Japan's national house price index direction. We triangulated whether Tokyo's strength is consistent with the national trend. |
| Statistics Bureau of Japan (CPI) | The official inflation dataset used across government and Bank of Japan analysis. | We used CPI to discuss real, inflation-adjusted housing affordability and construction-cost pressure. We interpreted whether nominal price gains are real gains or mostly inflation. |
| e-Stat (Internal Migration) | Japan's official government statistics gateway for demographic data. | We used migration flows as a demand driver since Tokyo inflows support prices and rents. We explained why Tokyo can outperform Japan overall despite national aging. |
| Reuters (BOJ Rate Context) | A major wire service that reliably cites primary sources and publishes dated updates. | We used it to pin down the as-of-January-2026 rate direction messaging and expectations. We referenced BOJ statements and timing rather than using it as original data. |
| Reuters (Tokyo Kantei Citation) | A reputable outlet that explicitly attributes condo price data to Tokyo Kantei. | We used it as a verification point for the existing condo benchmark in the 23 wards. We calibrated our Tokyo-wide average home price estimate accordingly. |
| Tokyo Kantei | One of Japan's best-known real-estate research firms for price and rent tracking. | We used it to identify which official market reports exist and how they define segments. We aligned neighborhood narratives with widely followed market segmentation. |
| Savills Tokyo Residential Spotlight | A major global real-estate consultancy with transparent research methodology. | We used it to triangulate new-condo pricing levels and price per square meter for Tokyo's 23 wards. We interpreted what's driving the premium including supply, buyer mix, and product mix. |
| CBRE Japan Market Outlook 2026 | A top global property consultancy whose outlooks are widely cited by investors and lenders. | We used it to ground 2026 expectations on rates, lending conditions, and real-estate liquidity. We cross-checked our 2026 forecast ranges for base versus downside scenarios. |
| MUFG Research (MURC) | A major Japanese financial-group research arm with detailed macro assumptions. | We used it to triangulate the domestic macro narrative on consumption, inflation measures, and risk factors. We treated it as a local lens cross-check against OECD and IMF. |
| Savills Japan Residential Quarterly | Another Savills primary research PDF with consistent methodology across quarters. | We used it mainly for demand-side context including foreign resident inflows and leasing tightness. We supported our rental investment timing section with this data. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following: