How's the real estate market doing in Tokyo? (2026)

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Japan Property Pack

Get all the data you need about the real estate market in Tokyo

Who is the author of this content?

BAMBOOROUTES

A team specialized in real estate investing in APAC countries (Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, etc.).

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Tokyo. If you’d like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.

How’s the real estate market going in Tokyo in 2026?

The Tokyo housing market in 2026 is still moving up, but the market is no longer easy for every seller because buyers now compare prices, mortgage costs and building quality more carefully.

The simplest way to read the Tokyo property market in 2026 is this: good resale condos near strong train stations remain very liquid, while overpriced older units, far-from-station homes and buildings with weak repair funds are becoming harder to sell.

For a foreign individual buyer, this means Tokyo is not a bargain market anymore, but it is still one of the deepest and most liquid residential property markets in Japan.

What's the average days-on-market in Tokyo in 2026?

As of 2026, the estimated average days-on-market for a normal resale residential property in Tokyo is around 60 to 90 days from public listing to an accepted offer.

That average hides a wide range, because a well-priced Tokyo condo near a station in Minato, Shibuya, Chiyoda, Chuo, Bunkyo, Meguro, Shinagawa or Koto can sell in 30 to 60 days, while an overpriced old unit can sit for 120 to 180 days or more.

Compared with 2024 and 2025, Tokyo homes in 2026 are still selling quickly, but buyers are less impulsive because prices are higher, mortgage rates are less comfortable and more listings need price revisions.

Are properties selling above or below asking in Tokyo in 2026?

As of 2026, the estimated sale-to-asking price ratio for typical Tokyo resale homes is around 92% to 97% of the first asking price and around 95% to 99% of the final asking price.

In practical terms, we estimate that only about 5% to 15% of Tokyo resale homes sell above asking, while most sell at asking or below asking, and our confidence is medium because Tokyo does not publish one clean citywide sale-to-list ratio.

The Tokyo homes most likely to attract bidding pressure are newer condos within a short walk of major stations in Minato, Shibuya, Chiyoda, Chuo, Meguro, Bunkyo and waterfront zones like Kachidoki, Harumi and Toyosu.

By the way, you will find much more detailed data in our property pack covering the real estate market in Tokyo.

What kinds of residential properties can I realistically buy in Tokyo?

A foreign individual can legally buy most normal residential property types in Tokyo, including condominiums, detached houses, land with an old house, leasehold apartments and new-build units.

For most non-professional buyers, a resale condominium is the easiest Tokyo property to understand because title, building management, repair funds, resale demand and rental demand are easier to compare.

The key point is that the best Tokyo property is rarely the biggest home on paper, because station access, earthquake standards, building management and future repair costs often matter more than floor area.

What property types dominate in Tokyo right now?

In the Tokyo residential market in 2026, resale condominiums and new condominiums dominate the practical buyer market, while detached houses are common in outer wards but less common for foreign buyers in central Tokyo.

The single largest and most practical property type for foreign buyers in Tokyo is the resale condominium, especially 1LDK to 3LDK units in buildings with professional management and strong rail access.

Resale condominiums became so important in Tokyo because land is scarce, central detached houses are expensive, rail commuting is essential and apartment-style ownership fits Tokyo’s dense urban lifestyle.

If you want to know more, you should read our dedicated analyses:

• How much should you pay for an apartment in Tokyo?

Are new builds widely available in Tokyo right now?

New-build homes are not widely available in Tokyo in 2026, and we estimate that new-build condominiums represent only a small minority of the total homes a buyer can realistically compare at any one time.

As of 2026, the highest concentration of visible new-build activity is around Kachidoki, Harumi, Toyosu, Ariake, Shinagawa, Takanawa Gateway, Nakano and selected redevelopment zones around central Tokyo stations.

Which neighborhoods are improving fastest in Tokyo in 2026?

The fastest-improving Tokyo neighborhoods in 2026 are not only the famous prime areas, but also rail-connected areas that are getting new cafés, office demand, station upgrades, family housing and lifestyle spillover from expensive wards.

For a buyer, this matters because the best value is often one or two stops away from the headline redevelopment zone, not inside the most expensive project itself.

Which areas in Tokyo are gentrifying in 2026?

As of 2026, the Tokyo areas showing the clearest gentrification signals are Kuramae, Asakusabashi, Kiyosumi-Shirakawa, Morishita, Monzen-Nakacho, Kita-Senju, Nakano, Jujo, Oyama, Oimachi, Kachidoki, Harumi, Toyosu and Ariake.

The visible changes are quite specific: Kuramae and Asakusabashi are adding design shops and cafés, Kiyosumi-Shirakawa is building on its coffee and art image, Nakano is being reshaped by station redevelopment, and Kachidoki and Harumi are absorbing new tower-resident demand.

Over the past two to three years, many of these gentrifying Tokyo neighborhoods have likely seen resale condo price growth of around 15% to 35%, with the strongest gains in waterfront and station-redevelopment areas.

By the way, we’ve written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Tokyo.

Where are infrastructure projects boosting demand in Tokyo in 2026?

As of 2026, the Tokyo areas where infrastructure and redevelopment are most clearly boosting housing demand are Shinagawa, Takanawa Gateway, Tamachi, Hamamatsucho, Oimachi, Nakano, Toranomon, Azabudai, Nihonbashi, Kachidoki, Harumi, Toyosu and Ariake.

The main demand drivers are the Haneda Airport Access Line, the Shinagawa and Takanawa Gateway redevelopment area, the Nakano station redevelopment, the Toranomon and Azabudai mixed-use cluster, and the continued waterfront buildout around Tokyo Bay.

The timeline is mixed, because some central redevelopment projects are already shaping prices in 2026, while the Haneda Airport Access Line and several station-area projects are expected to influence demand through the late 2020s and early 2030s.

In Tokyo, property prices often move when a project is announced, then rise again when the project becomes visible, so the best nearby homes can gain roughly 5% to 15% more than similar homes if the location truly benefits.

What do locals and insiders say the market feels like in Tokyo?

Tokyo locals and market insiders generally describe the 2026 housing market as strong, expensive and divided between very liquid good stock and slower overpriced stock.

The local frustration is simple: many normal households still want to live in central or well-connected Tokyo, but family-sized condos have moved far above what average salaries can comfortably support.

Do people think homes are overpriced in Tokyo in 2026?

As of 2026, many Tokyo locals and market insiders believe central Tokyo homes are overpriced for ordinary domestic buyers, even if wealthy Japanese households and foreign-currency buyers still see Tokyo as reasonable compared with Singapore, Hong Kong, Seoul, London or New York.

The evidence people cite most often is the sharp rise in Tokyo 23-ward new-condo prices, the 70㎡ resale condo benchmark above ¥120 million, higher mortgage rates and the widening gap between home prices and local wages.

The counterargument is that Tokyo prices are supported by limited central land, very low new supply, deep rail access, safe ownership rules, global-city demand and strong rental demand.

Compared with the Japanese national average, Tokyo’s price-to-income ratio is much higher, especially for family-sized condos in Minato, Shibuya, Chiyoda, Chuo, Meguro and Bunkyo.

What are common buyer mistakes people regret in Tokyo right now?

The most common buyer mistake in Tokyo is paying too much for a famous ward while ignoring the specific building, because a weak building in Minato can be a worse purchase than a strong building in Bunkyo, Koto, Shinagawa or Suginami.

The second common regret is buying an older condo without checking the repair reserve fund, earthquake standard, management minutes and future renovation burden, because these details can affect financing, resale and monthly costs.

If you want to go deeper, you can check our list of risks and pitfalls people face when buying property in Tokyo.

It’s because of these mistakes that we have decided to build our pack covering the property buying process in Tokyo.

How easy is it for foreigners to buy in Tokyo in 2026?

Tokyo is legally open to foreign residential buyers, but the practical buying process can still feel difficult if the buyer needs financing, does not read Japanese or wants to buy remotely.

The main difference between a foreign buyer and a local buyer is not the right to own property, but the ease of proving funds, securing a loan and understanding building-level risks.

Do foreigners face extra challenges in Tokyo right now?

Foreign buyers face a medium difficulty level in Tokyo compared with local buyers, because ownership itself is generally possible but financing, Japanese-language paperwork and seller trust can be harder.

Japan does not generally ban foreigners from buying residential property in Tokyo, but buyers still need normal registration, tax, identity, fund-source and foreign-exchange reporting steps when applicable.

The most common practical Tokyo challenges are reading the important matters explanation, checking condominium bylaws, understanding repair-reserve risk, getting a Japanese bank comfortable with the buyer’s income and completing remote signing without slowing the deal.

We will tell you more in our blog article about foreigner property ownership in Tokyo.

Do banks lend to foreigners in Tokyo in 2026?

As of 2026, mortgage financing is available to some foreign buyers in Tokyo, but it is much easier for permanent residents with stable Japanese income than for non-resident foreign buyers.

A strong foreign borrower in Tokyo may get normal Japanese mortgage terms, while a non-resident or non-permanent-resident buyer should often expect a larger down payment, commonly around 30% to 50%, and a stricter interest-rate offer.

Tokyo banks usually want proof of income, residence status, tax records, employment history, Japanese bank history, identity documents, property documents and a clear explanation of where the down payment comes from.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Japan.

We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Japan compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.

How risky is buying in Tokyo compared to other nearby markets?

Tokyo is usually less risky than smaller Japanese cities because it has deeper demand, stronger employment, more renters and better resale liquidity.

The trade-off is that Tokyo is expensive, so the risk is less about “no one wants the home” and more about “the buyer paid too much for the wrong home.”

Is Tokyo more volatile than nearby places in 2026?

As of 2026, Tokyo residential prices are more expensive and more rate-sensitive than Yokohama, Kawasaki, Saitama and Chiba, but Tokyo is also more liquid and usually easier to resell if the property is well located.

Over the past decade, Tokyo condos have risen much more than most nearby commuter markets, while weaker suburban locations have had smaller gains and usually less foreign-buyer demand.

If you want to go into more details, we also have a blog article detailing the updated housing prices in Tokyo.

Is Tokyo resilient during downturns historically?

Tokyo property values have historically been more resilient than weaker regional markets because Tokyo has jobs, universities, foreign demand, rail infrastructure and constant rental demand.

During major downturns, weaker or overpriced Tokyo homes can fall meaningfully, but prime station-adjacent condos often recover faster than poor-location homes, and a realistic stress case for 2026 would be a 5% to 10% decline in normal resale condos if rates and demand move against buyers.

The Tokyo homes that usually hold value best are well-managed freehold condos near major stations in Minato, Chiyoda, Chuo, Shibuya, Bunkyo, Meguro, Shinagawa, Koto and strong family areas along useful rail lines.

How strong is rental demand behind the scenes in Tokyo in 2026?

Rental demand in Tokyo is strong in 2026, but investors need to be careful because purchase prices have risen faster than rents in many central areas.

That means a Tokyo property can be easy to rent and still produce only a modest net yield after management fees, taxes, repairs and vacancy.

Is long-term rental demand growing in Tokyo in 2026?

As of 2026, long-term rental demand in Tokyo is still growing, with central and well-connected wards showing rent growth supported by workers, students, expats and households priced out of ownership.

The main tenant groups driving Tokyo rental demand are young professionals near Shinjuku, Shibuya and Tokyo Station, students around university nodes, expats near Minato and Shibuya, and families around Bunkyo, Meguro, Shinagawa, Koto, Setagaya and Suginami.

The strongest long-term rental neighborhoods in Tokyo right now include Shinjuku, Shibuya, Ebisu, Meguro, Iidabashi, Toyosu, Kachidoki, Nakano, Kita-Senju, Shinagawa, Nihonbashi and Ueno.

You might want to check our latest analysis about rental yields in Tokyo.

Is short-term rental demand growing in Tokyo in 2026?

Short-term rental operations in Tokyo are still constrained by Japan’s minpaku framework, the 180-day annual cap, local notification rules, reporting duties and condominium bylaws that can ban short-stay use entirely.

As of 2026, short-term rental demand in Tokyo is growing because inbound tourism to Japan remains very high, but legal and building-level restrictions mean only a limited share of ordinary condos are truly suitable for Airbnb-style use.

The current average occupancy rate for good legal short-term rentals in central Tokyo is likely strong, but a cautious buyer should underwrite around 65% to 80% occupancy rather than assuming full hotel-style demand all year.

The main guest groups driving Tokyo short-term rental demand are tourists from Asia, North America and Europe, business travelers, families who need more space than a hotel room, and repeat visitors who want easy access to rail lines.

By the way, we also have a blog article detailing whether owning an Airbnb rental is profitable in Tokyo.

We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Japan compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.

What are the realistic short-term and long-term projections for Tokyo in 2026?

The realistic outlook for Tokyo residential property in 2026 is positive, but slower and more selective than the sharp rise seen in 2024 and 2025.

Good homes should keep support from limited supply, strong rent demand and redevelopment, while weak homes should face more negotiation and longer selling times.

What's the 12-month outlook for demand in Tokyo in 2026?

As of 2026, the 12-month demand outlook for Tokyo residential property is firm but selective, with the best demand focused on well-managed condos near stations and the weakest demand focused on overpriced old stock.

The main factors that will influence Tokyo demand over the next 12 months are Bank of Japan rate policy, the yen, wage growth, foreign-buyer appetite, construction costs, new-condo supply and political attention on housing affordability.

Our base forecast is that good Tokyo resale condos rise around 3% to 7% over the next 12 months, while weaker or overpriced units stay flat or rise only slightly.

By the way, we also have an update regarding price forecasts in Japan.

What's the 3–5 year outlook for housing in Tokyo in 2026?

As of 2026, the 3–5 year outlook for Tokyo housing is moderately positive, with good residential assets likely to keep rising because supply is tight and demand remains deep.

The major projects shaping Tokyo over the next 3–5 years include Shinagawa and Takanawa Gateway redevelopment, the Haneda Airport Access Line, Nakano redevelopment, Toranomon and Azabudai growth, and the continued waterfront buildout around Kachidoki, Harumi, Toyosu and Ariake.

The single biggest uncertainty for Tokyo is whether higher interest rates and affordability pressure finally become strong enough to offset scarcity, foreign demand and redevelopment momentum.

Are demographics or other trends pushing prices up in Tokyo in 2026?

As of 2026, demographics are still supporting Tokyo housing prices because Tokyo keeps attracting people, jobs and capital even while Japan’s national population is shrinking.

The most important demographic shifts are domestic migration toward Tokyo, more single-person households, more dual-income households, more foreign residents and strong demand from people who want to live near major rail and job nodes.

Non-demographic trends are also pushing prices, especially high construction costs, global-city investment flows, lifestyle demand for central neighborhoods, tourism pressure and redevelopment around Shinagawa, Toranomon, Tokyo Station, Nakano and the bay area.

These pressures should continue through the late 2020s, although the speed of price growth may slow if mortgage costs rise faster than household incomes.

What scenario would cause a downturn in Tokyo in 2026?

As of 2026, the most likely downturn scenario for Tokyo housing would be a faster rise in interest rates, a stronger yen that cools foreign demand, weaker household confidence and sellers finally cutting inflated asking prices.

The early warning signs would be rising Tokyo condo inventory, more price reductions in central wards, falling REINS transaction volume, slower rent growth and weaker demand for expensive tower units in Kachidoki, Harumi, Toyosu, Minato and Shibuya.

Based on historical patterns, a realistic Tokyo downturn could mean a 5% to 10% fall for normal resale condos and a 10% to 15% fall for the most expensive or speculative units, while prime well-managed station-side homes should usually hold up better.

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it’s in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Tokyo, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can, and we don’t throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we’ve listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.

Source	Why this source is useful	How we used it
MLIT Real Estate Price Index	It is Japan’s official residential property price index based on transaction-price data.	We used it to anchor the national and Tokyo price direction. We treated it as a baseline because it is based on real market transactions, not only asking prices.
MLIT Real Estate Information Library	It is the government portal for transaction prices, official land values, hazards and planning data.	We used it to cross-check real prices and local risk factors. We prioritized it when we needed factual property and land context.
East Japan REINS	It is the official broker-network statistics source for existing home transactions in Greater Tokyo.	We used it to understand resale liquidity, transaction direction and inventory pressure. We relied on it more heavily for resale condos than for new-build pricing.
Real Estate Economic Institute	It is a standard Japanese industry source for new-condo supply, prices and contract rates.	We used it to measure new-condo prices and new-build supply. We compared it with resale sources because new-build and resale markets behave differently.
REEI 2026 supply forecast	It gives a direct forecast for new condominium supply from a major Japanese housing research institute.	We used it to estimate how available new builds are in 2026. We used the 23-ward forecast to judge whether normal buyers can realistically rely on new supply.
Tokyo Kantei 70㎡ resale condo index	It is a long-running Japanese property-data series that makes resale condo prices easy to compare.	We used it to track Tokyo 23-ward resale price momentum. We also used its price-revision comments to judge whether sellers are becoming too ambitious.
Japan Real Estate Institute Home Price Indices	JREI is a recognized Japanese real estate appraisal and research institution.	We used it as a second price-index check for existing condominium values. We used it to compare Tokyo with nearby and national markets.
Tokyo Metropolitan Government housing starts	It is Tokyo’s official housing-starts data, based on building-start statistics.	We used it to understand the future supply pipeline. We looked at starts because they affect availability in the next few years, not only today’s listings.
Bank of Japan Financial System Report	It is the central bank’s official view on financial stability, lending and macro risk.	We used it to assess rate and credit pressure on buyers. We treated it as macro context, not as a direct housing-price forecast.
Savills Tokyo Residential Leasing Q1 2026	Savills is a major real estate consultancy with regular Tokyo rental-market reporting.	We used it to estimate rent growth and leasing demand. We cross-checked its rent data with migration and local population context.
JNTO Japan Tourism Statistics	It is the official tourism-statistics platform for Japan.	We used it to judge short-stay demand pressure. We did not treat tourist growth as automatic permission to operate Airbnb-style rentals.
Tokyo minpaku procedure page	It is Tokyo’s official page for residential short-term-rental procedures.	We used it to explain short-term rental feasibility. We emphasized that condominium bylaws and local procedures can matter more than tourist demand.