Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Japan Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Tokyo's property market is included in our pack
Tokyo's real estate market in 2026 is a fascinating mix of record-high prices, tight supply, and evolving buyer behavior driven by rising interest rates.
Whether you are looking to buy a family apartment in the 23 wards or invest in a rental property near the Yamanote Line, understanding Tokyo's unique market dynamics is essential.
In this blog post, we cover the latest data on Tokyo housing prices in 2026 and we constantly update this article to keep the numbers fresh.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Tokyo.
How's the real estate market going in Tokyo in 2026?
What's the average days-on-market in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, well-priced resale condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards typically spend around 60 to 90 days on the market before going under contract.
That said, the realistic range varies quite a bit: correctly priced units in desirable wards like Minato, Shibuya, and Chuo often sell in 30 to 60 days, while overpriced listings or those with compromise factors (low light, poor building management, awkward floor plans) can sit for 90 to 150 days or more.
Compared to one or two years ago, Tokyo's days-on-market has stretched slightly longer because the Bank of Japan's rate hikes (now at 0.75%, the highest since 1995) have made buyers more cautious and selective, even though overall demand remains solid.
Are properties selling above or below asking in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, most resale condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards close at roughly 0% to 3% below the original asking price, which is a relatively small discount compared to many global markets.
In central Tokyo, around 15% to 25% of well-positioned listings sell at or slightly above asking (especially when multiple buyers compete), though this is less common than during the ultra-low rate era; we are reasonably confident in this range based on transaction patterns and agent feedback.
The neighborhoods most likely to see bidding wars and above-asking sales in Tokyo are the premium Central 5 wards (Minato, Chuo, Shibuya, Chiyoda, and Shinjuku), particularly for units with short station walks, good building management, and modern layouts.
By the way, you will find much more detailed data in our property pack covering the real estate market in Tokyo.
We created this infographic to give you a simple idea of how much it costs to buy property in different parts of Japan. As you can see, it breaks down price ranges and property types for popular cities in the country. We hope this makes it easier to explore your options and understand the market.
What kinds of residential properties can I realistically buy in Tokyo?
What property types dominate in Tokyo right now?
In Tokyo's 23 wards in 2026, condominiums (called "mansions" in Japanese) make up about 75% of residential listings, detached houses account for roughly 20%, and townhouses or low-rise buildings represent the remaining 5%.
Condominiums are by far the largest share of Tokyo's residential market, especially in central and inner-city areas where land prices make single-family homes impractical for most buyers.
This dominance developed because Tokyo's extreme land scarcity, high population density, and train-centric lifestyle make vertical living the most efficient solution, and developers have responded by building condominium towers for decades.
If you want to know more, you should read our dedicated analyses:
Are new builds widely available in Tokyo right now?
New-build condominiums represent only about 15% to 20% of the active residential listings in Tokyo's 23 wards, and their average price (around 92 million yen in Greater Tokyo as of late 2025) puts them out of reach for many buyers.
As of early 2026, the highest concentration of new-build developments in Tokyo is found in the bay area (Koto Ward's Toyosu and Ariake), around major redevelopment hubs like Shinagawa/Takanawa Gateway and Shibuya, and in select inner-city pockets of Minato and Chuo where large-scale projects have been completed.
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Which neighborhoods are improving fastest in Tokyo in 2026?
Which areas in Tokyo are gentrifying in 2026?
As of early 2026, the Tokyo neighborhoods showing the clearest signs of gentrification include Kuramae and Bakurocho in Taito Ward, Kiyosumi-Shirakawa in Koto Ward, Kita-Senju in Adachi Ward, and parts of Sumida Ward near the Sumida River.
The visible changes driving gentrification in these areas include the opening of specialty coffee shops, artisan workshops, and design studios in converted warehouses, along with younger creative professionals and families moving in and older manufacturing businesses being replaced by boutiques and cafes.
Over the past two to three years, these gentrifying Tokyo neighborhoods have seen price appreciation of roughly 15% to 25%, though exact figures vary by building quality and station proximity.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Tokyo.
Where are infrastructure projects boosting demand in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, the top areas where major infrastructure projects are boosting housing demand in Tokyo include Shinagawa/Takanawa (thanks to TAKANAWA GATEWAY CITY), Nihonbashi and Yaesu in Chuo Ward (major redevelopment complexes), and the Shibuya station orbit (with ongoing projects like Shibuya Sakura Stage).
The specific infrastructure projects driving this demand include JR East's TAKANAWA GATEWAY CITY grand opening in spring 2026, the Nihonbashi 1-chome 52-story tower completing in March 2026, the Haneda Airport Access Line under construction, and multiple station-area redevelopments around the Yamanote Line.
The Nihonbashi and Takanawa projects are completing in 2026, while the Haneda Airport Access Line is a longer-horizon project expected to open in the late 2020s or early 2030s.
In Tokyo, the typical price impact is a 5% to 15% premium on nearby residential properties when major infrastructure projects are announced, with a further 5% to 10% bump upon completion as accessibility and amenities materialize.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Japan. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
What do locals and insiders say the market feels like in Tokyo?
Do people think homes are overpriced in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, the general sentiment among Tokyo locals and market insiders is that homes feel expensive but not irrationally so, because strong rental demand and limited supply provide fundamental support for current prices.
When arguing homes are overpriced in Tokyo, locals typically cite the fact that a standard 70-square-meter condo in the 23 wards now costs around 120 million yen (roughly $800,000), which requires household income well above the Tokyo average to afford.
Those who believe prices are fair in Tokyo often point to rising rents (up around 6% to 8% year-over-year), persistent in-migration from other parts of Japan, and the continued weakness of the yen making Tokyo look affordable to foreign buyers.
Tokyo's price-to-income ratio is estimated at roughly 13 to 15 times median household income, which is significantly higher than Japan's national average of around 7 to 8 times and comparable to other global gateway cities like Hong Kong or Singapore.
What are common buyer mistakes people regret in Tokyo right now?
The most frequently cited buyer mistake in Tokyo is underestimating the importance of building management quality, because two condominiums on the same street can have completely different resale prospects depending on the HOA's repair reserve fund, maintenance history, and rules.
The second most common regret is buying based on "minutes to station" without actually walking the route, since a listed "12-minute walk" that goes uphill or through awkward crossings feels much longer than a flat "8-minute walk," and Tokyo buyers price that difference brutally.
If you want to go deeper, you can check our list of risks and pitfalls people face when buying property in Tokyo.
It's because of these mistakes that we have decided to build our pack covering the property buying process in Tokyo.
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How easy is it for foreigners to buy in Tokyo in 2026?
Do foreigners face extra challenges in Tokyo right now?
The overall difficulty level for foreigners buying property in Tokyo is moderate: there are no legal restrictions on foreign ownership, but practical hurdles around financing, paperwork, and language make the process more complex than for local buyers.
Japan imposes no specific legal restrictions on foreign property ownership, though non-resident buyers may need to file post-purchase reports through the Bank of Japan channel under foreign exchange regulations, and some rural or security-sensitive zones have separate rules that rarely affect Tokyo residential purchases.
The practical challenges foreigners most commonly encounter in Tokyo include the "Important Matters Explanation" document being in Japanese only, the need for a registered seal (hanko) and Japanese bank account, and the reality that most local real estate agents do not speak English fluently.
We will tell you more in our blog article about foreigner property ownership in Tokyo.
Do banks lend to foreigners in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, mortgage financing is available to foreign buyers in Tokyo, but the options are narrower than for Japanese nationals, and non-residents (those without a Japan address or visa) typically need to purchase in cash.
Foreign residents in Tokyo can generally expect loan-to-value ratios of 70% to 80% and variable interest rates starting around 0.5% to 1.0% (though rates are rising following the Bank of Japan's hikes), with some lenders offering fixed-rate products at higher rates.
Banks in Tokyo typically require foreign applicants to show permanent residency or at least several years of stable employment in Japan, proof of income (tax returns or employer certificates), a Japanese bank account, and sometimes a co-signer or additional collateral.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Japan.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Japan versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How risky is buying in Tokyo compared to other nearby markets?
Is Tokyo more volatile than nearby places in 2026?
As of early 2026, Tokyo's residential property prices are generally less volatile than those in nearby markets like Hong Kong or certain Chinese cities, though more volatile than very stable markets like Singapore's regulated public housing segment.
Over the past decade, Tokyo has experienced steady price appreciation of roughly 45% to 70% in nominal terms for existing condos, without the dramatic boom-bust cycles seen in Hong Kong (which had swings of 20% to 30% in short periods) or parts of China (where some cities saw 50%+ drops).
If you want to go into more details, we also have a blog article detailing the updated housing prices in Tokyo.
Is Tokyo resilient during downturns historically?
Tokyo has historically shown moderate resilience during economic downturns, with property values tending to "freeze" (fewer transactions at sticky prices) rather than collapse dramatically like some other global cities.
During Japan's post-bubble period and the 2008 global financial crisis, Tokyo residential prices declined roughly 10% to 20% in most submarkets, with recovery taking 3 to 5 years in central areas and longer in outer wards.
The property types and neighborhoods that have historically held value best during downturns in Tokyo are well-managed condominiums within a 5-minute walk of major stations on the Yamanote Line, particularly in Minato, Shibuya, and Chiyoda wards where demand from high-income residents and corporations provides a floor.
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How strong is rental demand behind the scenes in Tokyo in 2026?
Is long-term rental demand growing in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, long-term rental demand in Tokyo's 23 wards is growing strongly, with rents up around 6% to 8% year-over-year and vacancy rates for professionally managed stock sitting at approximately 3.5%.
The tenant demographics driving this demand in Tokyo include young professionals relocating for work, dual-income couples choosing to rent near central stations, international workers and expats (especially in tech and finance), and students attending Tokyo's many universities.
The neighborhoods with the strongest long-term rental demand in Tokyo right now are those along the Yamanote Line (especially Meguro, Ebisu, and Shibuya), the bay area near Toyosu and Tsukishima, and emerging creative hubs like Kiyosumi-Shirakawa and Kuramae.
You might want to check our latest analysis about rental yields in Tokyo.
Is short-term rental demand growing in Tokyo in 2026?
Tokyo's short-term rental regulations remain among the strictest in the world, with the Minpaku Law limiting most properties to 180 operating days per year and many wards (like Toshima and Sumida) implementing even tighter weekend-only or seasonal restrictions starting in 2026.
As of early 2026, short-term rental demand in Tokyo is growing robustly thanks to record inbound tourism and the weak yen, with platforms like Airbnb reporting high occupancy rates in the 70% to 85% range for licensed properties.
The current estimated average occupancy rate for compliant short-term rentals in Tokyo is around 75% to 80%, though this varies significantly by ward and property type.
The guest demographics driving short-term rental demand in Tokyo include international tourists (especially from Korea, Taiwan, China, and the United States), business travelers, and increasingly digital nomads taking advantage of Japan's new visa categories.
By the way, we also have a blog article detailing whether owning an Airbnb rental is profitable in Tokyo.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Japan compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What are the realistic short-term and long-term projections for Tokyo in 2026?
What's the 12-month outlook for demand in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, the 12-month demand outlook for residential property in Tokyo is solid but selective, meaning well-located and fairly-priced properties will continue to attract buyers while overpriced or compromised listings will sit longer.
The key factors likely to influence Tokyo housing demand over the next 12 months include the Bank of Japan's interest rate path (with potential further hikes to 1.0% or beyond), the spring 2026 Shunto wage negotiations, currency movements affecting foreign buyer appetite, and any progress on proposed foreign ownership regulations.
Forecasters expect Tokyo residential prices to increase by roughly 3% to 6% over the next 12 months, though this masks significant variation by ward and property type, with central premium areas likely to outperform outer wards.
By the way, we also have an update regarding price forecasts in Japan.
What's the 3 to 5 year outlook for housing in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, the 3 to 5 year outlook for Tokyo housing prices and demand is cautiously positive, with most analysts expecting continued but slower appreciation as interest rates normalize and affordability constraints bite harder.
Major development projects expected to shape Tokyo over the next 3 to 5 years include the completion of the Haneda Airport Access Line, continued redevelopment around Shinagawa and the Shibuya orbit, the Nihonbashi area transformation, and the buildout of the bay area with new residential towers in Toyosu and Harumi.
The single biggest uncertainty that could alter the 3 to 5 year outlook for Tokyo is the pace and magnitude of Bank of Japan rate hikes, because a faster-than-expected move toward 1.5% or higher could significantly dampen buyer affordability and transaction volumes.
Are demographics or other trends pushing prices up in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, demographic trends are providing meaningful support to Tokyo housing prices, primarily because Tokyo continues to attract domestic migrants from other parts of Japan even as the national population declines.
The specific demographic shifts most affecting prices in Tokyo include net in-migration of roughly 80,000 to 100,000 people annually into the Tokyo metro area, a rise in single-person households, and an increase in dual-income couples who prioritize central locations with short commutes.
Non-demographic trends also pushing prices in Tokyo include the weak yen attracting foreign buyers, the shift toward hybrid work making well-connected central apartments more valuable, and wealthy Japanese households moving assets into real estate as a hedge against inflation.
These demographic and trend-driven price pressures are expected to continue in Tokyo for at least the next 5 to 10 years, as long as the city maintains its role as Japan's economic and cultural center and continues to attract young workers and international talent.
What scenario would cause a downturn in Tokyo in 2026?
As of early 2026, the most likely scenario that could trigger a housing downturn in Tokyo is a combination of faster-than-expected Bank of Japan rate hikes (to 1.5% or above) paired with stagnant wage growth, which would create a sharp affordability shock for leveraged buyers.
Early warning signs that such a downturn is beginning in Tokyo would include a sustained rise in days-on-market beyond 120 days for average listings, a visible increase in price reductions on portals, rising vacancy rates in rental stock, and banks tightening lending standards.
Based on historical patterns, a realistic downturn in Tokyo would likely mean price declines of 10% to 20% over 2 to 3 years (more in fringe areas, less in prime central locations), with transaction volumes dropping significantly as buyers and sellers wait each other out.
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What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Tokyo, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Kantei | Tokyo Kantei is a long-running Japanese real estate data firm with a consistent monthly methodology for tracking condo prices. | We used their December 2025 Tokyo 23-ward 70-square-meter price as our starting point for early 2026 pricing. We also used it to infer how tight the resale market feels right now. |
| Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) | JREI is a major Japanese real estate research institute whose index is widely cited by financial institutions. | We used their Tokyo metro existing-condo index as a cross-check against Tokyo Kantei. We used it to discuss momentum and volatility beyond just asking prices. |
| Bank of Japan | The BOJ's policy statements are the primary source for understanding interest rate direction in Japan. | We used the December 2025 rate decision to anchor mortgage-rate direction and affordability headwinds going into 2026. We used it to explain why buyer behavior is shifting even when prices stay high. |
| Real Estate Economic Institute | This institute is the standard industry reference in Japan for new condominium supply, pricing, and contract rates. | We used their latest monthly figures for launches, average price, and contract rate to describe the new-build market entering 2026. We used it to separate new-build dynamics from resale market conditions. |
| Savills Japan | Savills is a major global real estate consultancy with transparent, institutionally-focused market reporting. | We used their data to quantify rent growth and vacancy rates in Tokyo's 23 wards as we enter 2026. We used it to triangulate rental demand strength beyond just listings websites. |
| Statistics Bureau of Japan | This is Japan's official statistics producer for internal migration data and demographic trends. | We used it to ground the "Tokyo keeps attracting people" story in official migration data. We used it to support rental-demand and neighborhood-momentum explanations. |
| Bank for International Settlements (BIS) | BIS is the international standard-setter for cross-country financial statistics and provides a consistent methodology for comparing housing markets. | We used it to compare Tokyo's housing volatility to nearby markets using a consistent international lens. We used it to keep our risk discussion comparable rather than subjective. |
| MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) | MLIT publishes Japan's official land price benchmarks and real estate regulations. | We used it to anchor ground truth on land values and confirm directionality versus private indexes. We also referenced their minpaku portal for short-term rental regulations. |
| AirDNA | AirDNA is a widely used short-term rental data provider covering Airbnb and similar platforms with consistent methodology. | We used it to estimate STR occupancy and daily rates as a proxy for tourism-driven demand. We used it alongside government rules to distinguish demand from operational feasibility. |
| JR East | JR East is the railway operator behind major redevelopment projects and provides official project announcements. | We used their TAKANAWA GATEWAY CITY and Haneda Airport Access Line announcements to identify infrastructure that can shift residential desirability. We used it to connect redevelopment to neighborhood momentum. |
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