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SUMMARY
Are Russians replacing Chinese property buyers in Thailand? Partly. Russians are already taking a large share of the demand China has lost, especially in Phuket and other resort markets, but Chinese buyers still lead nationwide.
The national ranking has not flipped. Chinese buyers still account for almost twice as much condominium transfer value as Russians, even after a sharp fall in Chinese spending.
The speed of the catch-up is more important than the ranking itself. Chinese transfer value is down 27.7% in the latest first-half comparison, while Russian transfer value is up 75.9%.
Russian growth has replaced roughly 59% of the condo spending lost from Chinese buyers. That is large enough to change the shape of foreign demand rather than simply add another small nationality to the mix.
The shift is geographically uneven. In Bangkok, Chinese buyers remain much more important; in Phuket, Russian demand is already strong enough that agents and developers can experience the market very differently from the national statistics.
Phuket is where the replacement story looks most convincing. Russian tourism has overtaken Chinese tourism there, long-stay demand is well established, and the island’s newer villa, branded-residence and resort-style supply fits Russian buyers particularly well.
Official condo data probably understate Russia’s influence in Phuket because the cleanest nationality statistics do not fully capture villas and other structures where foreign buyers cannot simply own the land directly.
Russian buyers are also moving up the price curve. In the latest first quarter, their average transferred condo value was about 13% higher than the Chinese average, reversing the relationship seen in 2024.
Thailand is becoming less dependent on any single foreign market. China’s share of foreign condo transfer value has fallen from 46.7% in 2023 to roughly one-quarter in the latest first half, while Russia, Myanmar, India and other buyer groups have become more visible.
The bigger story is therefore diversification, not a clean handover from China to Russia. China remains first nationally, Russia is closing fast, and Phuket has moved much further toward a Russian-led resort market than Thailand as a whole.
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Are Russians actually replacing Chinese property buyers in Thailand right now?
Only partly. Russian buyers are catching Chinese property buyers in Thailand very quickly, but China is still clearly ahead nationwide.
The latest Real Estate Information Center data make the gap easy to see. During the latest first half, Chinese nationals transferred about THB 6.87 billion of Thai condominiums, compared with roughly THB 3.60 billion for Russians. China was still spending about 1.9 times as much.
What has changed dramatically is the direction. Chinese transfer value fell 27.7% from a year earlier, while Russian transfer value jumped 75.9%. The wider foreign-condo market barely moved, declining around 1.5%.
Using those growth rates, Chinese buyers had generated roughly THB 9.5 billion during the comparable earlier period and Russians only about THB 2.0 billion. In one year, the gap between them shrank from around THB 7.5 billion to THB 3.3 billion.
Russia therefore looks much more important today than it did even a year ago. But at the national level, calling Russians Thailand's new leading foreign buyers would still be wrong.
| Foreign condo transfer value | Earlier comparable H1 | Latest H1 | YoY change | Latest ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | ~THB 9.51bn | THB 6.87bn | -27.7% | 1.91x Russia |
| Russia | ~THB 2.05bn | THB 3.60bn | +75.9% | 52% of China |
| All foreigners | ~THB 28.70bn | THB 28.27bn | -1.5% | — |
Why does it suddenly feel like Russians are taking over from Chinese buyers?
Because Chinese property buying is falling fast at exactly the same time Russian buying is accelerating.
The split was already obvious in the latest first quarter. REIC recorded 906 condominium transfers to Chinese nationals, down 38.8% from a year earlier. Their transfer value fell 42.9% to THB 3.49 billion.
Russian buyers moved the other way. They transferred 383 units, up 33%, with transfer value jumping 68.7% to THB 1.67 billion.
One year earlier, Chinese buyers had purchased 1,481 condos against 288 for Russians, more than five Chinese units for every Russian one. That ratio has now fallen to roughly 2.4.
This is why the change feels much bigger on the ground than the national ranking suggests. China remains first, but its lead is disappearing surprisingly quickly.
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How much of the Chinese property slowdown are Russians actually replacing?
Quite a lot. Russian buyers replaced roughly three-fifths of the condominium spending lost from Chinese buyers during the latest first half.
Chinese transfer value fell by around THB 2.63 billion from the comparable period. Russian transfer value increased by roughly THB 1.55 billion.
That Russian gain is equivalent to about 59% of the Chinese decline.
This is one of the strongest pieces of evidence behind the replacement argument. Russian spending is now large enough to offset a meaningful part of the missing Chinese money rather than simply growing from a tiny base.
Other nationalities are also filling the gap. Myanmar buyers transferred around THB 2.46 billion during the same period, while Americans, Taiwanese, French, British, Germans, Australians and Indians all contributed meaningful volumes.
What we are seeing today looks increasingly like a broader redistribution of foreign demand, with Russia taking the biggest share of the space China has left behind.
| Change in H1 condo value | Approximate change |
|---|---|
| Chinese buyer decline | -THB 2.63bn |
| Russian buyer increase | +THB 1.55bn |
| Russian increase as share of Chinese decline | ~59% |
| Net change in all foreign transfers | about -THB 0.43bn |
Has China already lost its old dominance in Thailand property?
Yes. China is still Thailand's largest foreign condo buyer, but the overwhelming dominance seen a few years ago has already gone.
REIC recorded 6,614 condominium transfers to Chinese buyers in 2023, worth THB 34.13 billion. China represented almost 46% of foreign units and nearly 47% of foreign transfer value.
Russia was far behind, with 1,260 units worth THB 4.46 billion. Chinese buyers were spending roughly 7.7 times more than Russians.
The gap was still above seven times in 2024. Chinese nationals transferred THB 26.56 billion of condominiums, compared with THB 3.66 billion for Russians.
Today, the latest half-year gap is only 1.9 times.
The comparison is striking because Russia has not needed to overtake China for the market structure to change. Thailand has already moved from a market where Chinese buyers dwarfed every other nationality to one where several foreign groups matter.
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Is the Russian property boom happening across Thailand or mostly in Phuket?
The Russian surge is heavily concentrated in Thailand's resort markets, especially Phuket and Chonburi.
REIC identifies Phuket and Chonburi as the main areas where Russian condominium transfer value is growing. Chinese buyers remain much more important in Bangkok as well as Chonburi.
That difference explains why people can describe the same Thai property market in completely different ways.
A Phuket broker selling holiday homes or resort condos can genuinely feel that Russians have replaced Chinese clients. A Bangkok developer selling urban condominiums will still see China as a much bigger source of foreign demand.
Russian buyers also fit naturally into Pattaya and Phuket, where second homes, extended stays, beach living and rentals form a much bigger part of the market. Chinese demand has historically spread further into Bangkok investment units, metropolitan housing, education-related purchases and business stays.
So the Russian takeover story becomes much weaker as soon as we zoom out from the resort provinces.
Have Russians already replaced Chinese buyers in Phuket?
Russians are now more influential than Chinese buyers across several parts of Phuket's property market, although there is no clean nationality dataset covering every villa and condo transaction on the island.
Tourism shows how far the balance has shifted. C9 Hotelworks recorded roughly 1.07 million Russian visitors to Phuket in 2024, making Russia the island's largest international source market. China contributed around 998,000.
The historical contrast is even more telling. Chinese arrivals to Phuket had reached roughly 3.1 million before the pandemic. That old level has never fully returned, while Russia has built a much deeper long-stay presence.
Russian demand also shows up strongly in Phuket rentals. C9 research has placed Russians among the island's leading house and condominium renters, alongside British and American tenants.
Phuket's buyer pipeline often starts with repeat visits and longer rentals. People who spend several months on the island are simply more plausible future buyers than short-stay tourists.
In places such as Rawai, Bang Tao and Cherngtalay, Russian influence is now strong enough that saying the market has shifted away from Chinese dependence is reasonable.
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Is Phuket property becoming dependent on Russian buyers?
No, and the latest Phuket demand data make that fairly clear. Russians matter a lot, but Phuket has become too international to depend on one foreign nationality.
A recent dataset presented by FazWaz and analysed by C9 Hotelworks covered 54,628 online enquiries from 141 countries across 1,258 Phuket projects. Around 71% of those enquiries were for rentals, while only 29% concerned purchases.
Among the 15,586 sales enquiries, the median buyer budget was about THB 7.5 million. Interest fell sharply above THB 20 million.
The geography is much more concentrated than the nationality mix. Cherngtalay dominates both sales and rental enquiries, with Rawai consistently second. The west-coast corridor captures most of the qualified demand.
This gives a more useful picture of Phuket today. Russian buyers are a major force inside an international market, particularly in certain neighborhoods and product types. They are nowhere close to being the island's only source of liquidity.
Are Russians spending more on Thai condos than Chinese buyers?
Recently, yes. Russian buyers have been paying more per transferred condo on average than Chinese buyers.
In the latest first quarter, Chinese buyers transferred THB 3.49 billion across 906 units, giving an average of around THB 3.86 million per condo.
Russian buyers transferred THB 1.67 billion across 383 units, or roughly THB 4.35 million per condo. The average Russian transaction was about 13% higher.
A year or two ago, the relationship looked very different. During 2024, Chinese buyers averaged roughly THB 4.68 million per unit, while Russians averaged about THB 3.39 million.
The current figures suggest that Russian demand is spreading beyond cheaper resort apartments into larger or higher-priced properties.
One quarter cannot prove a permanent change in buyer behavior because project completions can distort averages. Still, the latest numbers fit what we are seeing in Phuket, where villas, branded residences and larger resort units are playing a much bigger role.
| Average condo transfer value | China | Russia | Russia vs China |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ~THB 4.68m | ~THB 3.39m | ~28% lower |
| Latest Q1 | ~THB 3.86m | ~THB 4.35m | ~13% higher |
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Do official condo numbers understate how important Russian buyers have become?
Almost certainly in Phuket, because the cleanest national statistics largely miss the villa market.
Thailand can track foreign condominium ownership quite well because foreigners are legally allowed to own qualifying freehold condo units directly. Villas are much harder to classify by buyer nationality.
Foreigners generally cannot directly own Thai land. Villa transactions can therefore involve long leases, Thai spouses, companies, separate ownership of the building and land, or other structures.
That creates a measurement problem exactly where Russian demand is strongest.
C9 Hotelworks counted more than 43,000 residential units in Phuket's primary market in its later supply work, with the market increasingly tilted toward villas, branded residences and resort-style developments. Cherngtalay alone accounted for nearly half of that pipeline.
If Russian buyers are more interested than Chinese buyers in villas and larger lifestyle properties, national condo-transfer data will make their true influence in Phuket look smaller than it feels to developers and agents.
We can measure the Russian rise confidently in condos. The broader Phuket shift is probably larger.
Why are Chinese buyers pulling back from Thailand property?
Chinese buyers are currently being held back mainly by weaker finances at home and tighter access to money for overseas purchases.
REIC has repeatedly pointed to China's domestic economic slowdown, liquidity pressure and restrictions around moving capital abroad when explaining the decline.
The numbers line up with that story. Chinese buyers transferred 6,614 Thai condos in 2023 and 5,670 in 2024, a fall of 14.3%. Transfer value dropped faster, from THB 34.13 billion to THB 26.56 billion, down about 22%.
The decline has since become steeper. Chinese buyers transferred 1,481 condos worth THB 6.12 billion in the first quarter of 2025. In the comparable latest quarter, that fell to 906 units worth THB 3.49 billion.
Thailand itself has not suddenly become irrelevant to Chinese travelers or investors. The sharper problem is that fewer Chinese households currently feel comfortable moving large amounts of money into overseas property.
A healthier Chinese economy could bring part of this demand back.
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Why are Russians buying so much more Thailand property now?
Thailand currently fits the needs of Russian long-stay buyers unusually well: easy resort living, a large Russian-speaking ecosystem, international schools, private healthcare and an established rental market.
Phuket is the clearest example. More than one million Russian visitors were already arriving annually by 2024, and Russians have become a regular presence in long-term rental data rather than just a seasonal tourism wave.
The ecosystem builds on itself. Russian-speaking agents, restaurants, schools, service businesses and social networks make longer stays easier, particularly around Bang Tao, Cherngtalay and Rawai.
Geopolitics has undoubtedly added another reason for some Russians to spend more time abroad, but it cannot explain every purchase. Thailand also attracts Russian families, retirees, investors and people simply looking for a warm-weather second home.
The property numbers show the trend has moved well beyond tourism. Russian condominium transfer value is rising far faster than foreign purchases overall.
Is Russian property demand growing faster than Russian tourism?
Yes. Russian property spending has lately been growing much faster than visitor numbers, which points to deeper demand rather than tourism alone.
Russian arrivals to Phuket rose around 26% in 2024, according to C9 Hotelworks. Russian condominium transfer value nationwide is now up roughly 76% year on year in the latest first-half data.
The difference is too large to ignore.
Russian buyers are also spending more per condo than they were previously. As seen above, their latest first-quarter average reached about THB 4.35 million per unit, above the Chinese average and well above the Russian average recorded in 2024.
Property purchases therefore seem to be deepening faster than the tourism base itself.
Tourism remains the entry point for many Russian buyers, but repeat visits, rentals and longer stays are increasingly turning into actual ownership demand.
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Are Phuket developers now building for Russians instead of Chinese buyers?
Phuket developers are increasingly building the kind of homes Russian buyers like, but the same products also target Europeans, Indians, Middle Eastern buyers and other wealthy foreigners.
The clearest change is what developers are putting on the market.
Phuket has added far more villas, branded residences, large resort condos and projects designed around long stays. C9 Hotelworks' latest broader supply work counted 43,481 primary-market residences across Phuket, representing roughly THB 455 billion of incoming residential investment value.
Nearly half of that residential supply sits in Cherngtalay, one of the strongest locations for foreign lifestyle demand.
Branded residences have also become much more important. Earlier C9 data showed branded condos selling at a significant premium to ordinary projects, while luxury branded villas could reach roughly twice the per-square-metre price of non-branded villas.
That product mix works particularly well for Russians who want larger homes and resort living. It also shows why Thailand cannot simply recreate the old Chinese-investor boom by changing the nationality on the sales brochure.
The product itself has changed.
Could another nationality become more important than Russia?
Yes. India and Myanmar already show why Thailand's foreign property market may become more fragmented rather than Russian-dominated.
Myanmar buyers have recently generated around THB 2.46 billion of first-half condominium transfer value, putting them much closer to Russia than many people realize.
Indian buyers are still smaller in total volume but stand out at the expensive end. REIC reported an average Indian condominium transfer value of around THB 5.6 million per unit in the latest first quarter, the highest among the leading nationalities, with an average unit size of about 67.8 square metres.
Indian transaction volume also rose strongly in that quarter.
Thailand therefore has several foreign buyer pools developing at the same time. China still brings the biggest total amount, Russia has the fastest high-profile growth, Myanmar is substantial, and India increasingly matters for larger homes.
This broader mix is already reducing Thailand's dependence on Chinese buyers.
| Foreign buyer pattern | Current position |
|---|---|
| China | Still largest nationwide, but falling sharply |
| Russia | Fastest major challenger, especially strong in resort markets |
| Myanmar | Major condo buyer, especially relevant in Bangkok |
| India | Smaller volume, but unusually large and expensive purchases |
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Could Chinese buyers come back and push Russians back into second place?
Absolutely. A Chinese recovery is still the clearest threat to the idea that Russia is permanently replacing China.
China is holding first place even during a severe downturn in its own overseas property buying. That tells us how large the underlying Chinese buyer base remains.
The historical gap was enormous. Chinese nationals bought 6,614 Thai condominiums in 2023 against only 1,260 purchased by Russians. Chinese transfer value reached THB 34.13 billion, compared with THB 4.46 billion for Russia.
Russia has closed much of that distance while Chinese demand was falling.
If Chinese confidence, liquidity and overseas spending recover, Russia would need to keep growing quickly just to preserve today's much smaller gap.
For now, we have evidence of a rapid Russian catch-up. We do not yet have evidence that China has permanently surrendered first place.
Is Thailand becoming less dependent on Chinese property buyers?
Yes. This is already happening, regardless of whether Russia eventually overtakes China.
Chinese nationals accounted for 46.7% of all foreign condominium transfer value in 2023. Their share has now fallen to roughly one-quarter in the latest first-half figures.
Russia is around 13%, while Myanmar is close to 9%. More than half of foreign transfer value now comes from nationalities other than those three.
That change is bigger than the Russia-versus-China headline.
Bangkok can increasingly follow one set of foreign buyers while Phuket follows another. Chonburi can attract Chinese, Russian and European demand at the same time. Higher-end family purchases can come from Indians even while overall Chinese volumes fall.
Thailand's foreign property market today is much less tied to one country than it was only a few years ago.
| Foreign condo value share | 2023 | Latest H1 |
|---|---|---|
| China | 46.7% | ~24.3% |
| Russia | 6.1% | ~12.7% |
| Myanmar | 5.1% | ~8.7% |
| All other nationalities | 42.1% | ~54.3% |
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Are Russians replacing Chinese property buyers in Thailand?
Partly. Russians are already replacing Chinese buyers in some Thai resort markets, especially Phuket, while China still leads the country as a whole.
The national data leave little room for a stronger claim. Chinese buyers currently generate almost twice as much condominium transfer value as Russians, so Russia has not taken the number-one position.
The speed of the catch-up is much more impressive than the ranking. Chinese transfer value is down 27.7% in the latest first-half comparison, while Russian value is up 75.9%. Russian growth alone has replaced roughly 59% of the money lost from Chinese buyers.
Phuket has moved further. Russian tourism now exceeds Chinese tourism there, Russian long-stay demand is deeply established, and the island's growing villa and resort-residence market fits Russian buyers particularly well. Official condo statistics probably understate that local influence because they do not fully capture foreign participation in villas.
The bigger shift is already clear today: the period when Chinese buyers overwhelmingly defined Thailand's foreign property market is ending.
Russia is the most obvious beneficiary right now, especially in Phuket and Chonburi. But Thailand is moving toward a more fragmented foreign-buyer market rather than simply replacing Chinese dominance with Russian dominance. China remains first nationally, Russia is closing fast, and in some resort markets the handover has effectively already happened.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Russians are replacing Chinese property buyers in Thailand by separating the question into national rankings, recent momentum, the amount of lost Chinese demand being replaced, geographic concentration, Phuket-specific demand and the type of property being bought.
We gave the greatest weight to completed condominium transfers from the Real Estate Information Center, or REIC, because these provide the clearest comparable national evidence on buyer nationality, transaction value, unit volume and geography. We compared like-for-like periods where possible and recalculated ratios, shares and changes from the published figures when they made the shift easier to see.
We then tested whether the national picture held in Phuket. Because foreign demand there extends well beyond condominiums, we combined REIC transfer data with C9 Hotelworks research on tourism, rentals, online property enquiries, residential supply, villas, branded residences and the Cherngtalay-Bang Tao market.
We did not treat every source as equally strong. A completed transfer carries more weight than an online enquiry, while tourism and rental data are useful for showing the depth of a long-stay population but do not by themselves prove ownership. Short-term changes in average transaction values were used as directional evidence rather than proof of a permanent change in buyer behavior.
We also accounted for the limits of the data. Foreign condominium ownership is comparatively easy to track by nationality, while Phuket's villa market is harder to measure because foreigners generally cannot own Thai land directly and transactions may involve leases, companies, Thai spouses or separate ownership of land and buildings. Department of Lands and Thailand Board of Investment guidance were used to frame that legal boundary.
The final judgment was based on where the evidence agreed and where it did not. Russia can be replacing a meaningful share of Chinese demand, and can already be more influential in parts of Phuket, without having replaced China as Thailand's largest foreign property buyer nationwide.
Key sources used include: REIC on the latest first-half housing and foreign condominium transfers, REIC on latest first-quarter foreign condominium transfers by nationality, REIC on the 2025 foreign condominium market, REIC's 2024 annual foreign-buyer data, REIC on the 2023 foreign condominium market, C9 Hotelworks on Phuket tourism and Russian and Chinese arrivals, C9 Hotelworks and FazWaz on Phuket property enquiries, C9 Hotelworks on Phuket residential supply and product mix, the Department of Lands on foreign condominium ownership, and Thailand Board of Investment guidance on foreign land, building and condominium ownership.
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Attaya Suriyawonghae 🇹🇭
Real Estate Broker, Zest Real Estate
