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SUMMARY
Thailand’s housing market is actually recovering, but only at an early and uneven stage: transaction activity has turned up, while prices, purchasing power, new supply and developer confidence remain much weaker than they would be in a full recovery.
The most important improvement is in transaction volume. Nationwide residential transfers are back to double-digit year-on-year growth, which suggests the market has moved beyond the worst of the slump rather than simply stabilizing at a low level.
But buyers are spending much less per transaction. Transfer volumes are rising far faster than transfer values, especially in Bangkok, showing that cheaper homes are doing a disproportionate share of the work.
Bangkok condo sales look better partly because developers have cut supply hard. Launch-period sales rates above 50% are encouraging, but they are being achieved with far fewer launches than before, so stronger absorption is not yet the same thing as stronger underlying demand.
Prices are still too soft to call this a broad upcycle. New Bangkok-region condos are edging higher, but low-rise housing remains weak and EEC low-rise prices are essentially flat.
Lower interest rates and government incentives are helping transactions clear, but they have not solved the main constraint: household borrowing capacity. Thailand still has very high household debt, and mortgage access remains a real filter on demand.
The resale market is recovering faster than new construction, while the strongest listed developers are also pulling away from weaker rivals. That combination says buyers still exist, but they are concentrating around cheaper stock and companies they trust.
Foreign demand remains important but has changed shape. Chinese buying is weaker nationally, while international demand is still strong in specific premium markets such as Phuket and downtown Bangkok.
Geography is the clearest divide. Phuket, Rayong and Khon Kaen are showing healthier combinations of unit growth and transaction-value growth, while Bangkok is recovering mainly through cheaper transactions and tighter developer supply.
The next real test is whether transaction values, prices and new supply start rising alongside sales volumes. Thailand appears to have passed the worst point of the downturn, but the market has not fully recovered until those gains spread beyond a few regional, premium and affordability-driven pockets.
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Is Thailand’s housing market really recovering now?
Thailand’s housing market is recovering, but only in the early sense of the word: more homes are changing hands again, while prices, purchasing power and developer confidence still look weak.
The improvement is real enough to take seriously. REIC recorded nationwide residential transfers rising 11.2% year on year in the first quarter, while transfer value increased 3.1%. That followed a 5.7% quarter-on-quarter rise in transfers at the end of 2025, so the latest jump did not appear from nowhere.
But 2025 left an unusually low base. Bangkok and its surrounding provinces recorded only 147,347 residential transfers that year, down 13.9%, while transfer value fell 15.8%. New-home transfers dropped even faster, by 17.5%. Thailand is therefore bouncing from a bad year rather than breaking into a new boom.
The freshest Bangkok condo data points in the same direction. Knight Frank found that the sales rate for newly launched condominiums reached 51.7% in the second quarter, up from 45.3% in the first. Yet Knight Frank still expects the Bangkok condo market to remain broadly stable rather than return to widespread growth in the second half.
For now, “early recovery” fits the evidence much better than “housing boom.”
| Indicator | Earlier weakness | Latest evidence | What it tells us |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangkok-region transfers in 2025 | -13.9% YoY | 147,347 units | The rebound starts from a weak base |
| Nationwide transfers, Q1 | — | +11.2% YoY | Sales activity has clearly improved |
| Nationwide transfer value, Q1 | — | +3.1% YoY | Money spent is recovering much more slowly |
| Bangkok condo launch sales rate, Q2 | 45.3% in Q1 | 51.7% | New projects are selling better |
| Knight Frank H2 view | — | Stable market | Broad growth is still not expected |
Why can Thailand sell more homes while the housing market still feels weak?
Thailand can sell more homes without having a strong housing market because the extra transactions are increasingly concentrated in cheaper properties.
The gap between units sold and money spent is one of the clearest clues. Nationwide transfers rose 11.2% year on year in the first quarter, but their value increased only 3.1%. Around Bangkok, transfers increased 10.5% while their total value actually fell 2.8%. Bangkok city was even more striking: 17,746 homes changed hands, up 11.1%, while their combined value dropped 4.5%.
We can turn those figures into a useful comparison. Nationwide, the average value per transferred home fell by roughly 7%. Across Bangkok and its surrounding provinces, it fell by roughly 12%. Inside Bangkok itself, the decline was around 14%.
Those calculations do not tell us that an identical Bangkok home suddenly became 14% cheaper. The mix of properties being sold changed. What they do tell us is that lower-priced homes are doing much more of the work today.
That helps explain why transaction headlines can look surprisingly strong while developers still complain about weak purchasing power.
| Area | Transfer growth | Value growth | Approx. change in average value per transfer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand | +11.2% | +3.1% | about -7% |
| Bangkok metropolitan region | +10.5% | -2.8% | about -12% |
| Bangkok city | +11.1% | -4.5% | about -14% |
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Are Thailand’s home prices finally going up again?
Thai home prices are mostly stabilizing rather than taking off, and the latest data still show a clear split between condominiums and low-rise homes.
REIC’s index for new condominiums still for sale in Bangkok and surrounding provinces reached 161.7 in the second quarter, up 1.6% from a year earlier and 0.6% from the previous quarter. That was stronger than the 0.2% annual increase recorded one quarter earlier.
Houses and townhouses are weaker. REIC’s index for new housing developments stood at 131.2, down 0.9% year on year. Prices did edge up 0.2% from the previous quarter, but the annual comparison remains negative.
The Eastern Economic Corridor tells a similar story. REIC’s latest index for new low-rise housing across Chonburi, Rayong and Chachoengsao increased just 0.5% year on year and was unchanged quarter on quarter. REIC described prices there as moving toward a flat market because buyer purchasing power remains weak and developers still have plenty of unsold homes to clear.
So we are currently looking at price stabilization with small pockets of growth. A genuine national upswing would normally produce something much stronger and broader.
| New-build market | Latest YoY change | Latest QoQ change | Current picture |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangkok-region condos | +1.6% | +0.6% | Mild price growth |
| Bangkok-region low-rise homes | -0.9% | +0.2% | Still below last year |
| EEC low-rise homes | +0.5% | 0.0% | Essentially flat |
Is Bangkok’s housing market actually bouncing back?
Bangkok’s housing market is bouncing in transaction volume, but buyers are still trading down heavily enough that calling this a strong Bangkok recovery would be premature.
The capital recorded 17,746 residential transfers in the first quarter, up 11.1% year on year. Their total value, however, fell 4.5% to about ฿64.95 billion.
That fits what happened throughout 2025. Nearly every major metropolitan price bracket contracted, while one of the rare areas of growth was condominiums priced around ฿1.01 million to ฿1.5 million. Transfers in that cheap condo segment rose 5.4% in units even as the broader Bangkok market fell sharply.
The latest condo launch numbers also need context. Knight Frank found that launch-period sales reached 51.7% in the second quarter, their strongest recent reading. But developers are deliberately concentrating on smaller projects, proven locations and price points buyers can still afford. Knight Frank itself says purchasing power has yet to recover broadly.
Bangkok buyers are coming back. They are simply being much more selective about what they can pay for.
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Are Bangkok condo sales really recovering, or are developers just launching fewer units?
Bangkok condo sales are recovering from their worst levels, but much of the improvement comes from developers finally matching new supply to the amount of demand that actually exists.
The numbers show how dramatic that adjustment has been. Developers launched 35,761 Bangkok condominiums in 2023, and only 28.4% were reserved during their launch quarter. The sales rate then collapsed to 8.3% in the first quarter of 2024.
By 2025, new launches had fallen to 17,409 units, less than half the 2023 total. The launch-period sales rate consequently recovered to 51.6%.
The first half of the current year followed the same pattern. Only 8,501 units were launched, and 3,994 were reserved during their respective launch quarters. That produced a 47% sales rate for the half, with the second quarter reaching 51.7%.
Pre-pandemic launch-period sales rates generally exceeded 78%, according to Knight Frank. Current demand has therefore recovered a long way from the 2024 collapse while remaining far below the strength Bangkok developers once took for granted.
The next test is pretty simple: can sales rates stay above roughly 50% when developers start adding more supply? That would tell us much more than another strong quarter created by tiny projects.
| Period | New condo launches | Launch-period sales rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 35,761 | 28.4% |
| Q1 2024 | — | 8.3% |
| 2025 | 17,409 | 51.6% |
| H1 current year | 8,501 | 47.0% |
| Q2 current year | — | 51.7% |
| Pre-COVID typical level | Higher active supply | generally above 78% |
Have Thai developers started betting on a big housing recovery?
Thai developers are still acting cautiously, which tells us they do not yet believe a big housing recovery has arrived.
Earlier in the year, new residential launches across Bangkok and surrounding provinces fell 31.1% from a year before. Residential land-allocation permits dropped to only 13 projects, down 58.1%, while the number of permitted units fell 44.3% to 2,645.
An analysis of 12 listed developers by Finansia told the same story. First-quarter launch value fell 46% year on year to roughly ฿30.8 billion, the weakest first quarter in five years. Low-rise launches were down 55%, while condominium launches fell 40%.
This caution is now shaping the apparent recovery. Developers are putting fewer projects into the market, using smaller phases and targeting locations where they already know demand exists. That helps explain why Bangkok condo sales rates can improve even though household finances remain difficult.
There is an exception at the premium end. CBRE’s latest Bangkok research found a sharp rebound in downtown luxury condominium launches compared with the earthquake-depressed period a year earlier. Completed luxury projects had average sales rates above 90%, while CBRE’s own Bangkok residential sales during the first half were more than three times their year-earlier level.
That strength is real, but luxury Bangkok is a narrow market with richer buyers. Mass-market developers are still behaving defensively.
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Are lower interest rates finally fixing Thailand’s housing problem?
Thailand’s lower interest rates are helping home buyers who can qualify for mortgages, but they have not fixed the harder problem: too many households still have limited borrowing capacity.
The Bank of Thailand currently has its policy rate at 1.00%, leaving borrowing conditions much easier than they were during the previous tightening cycle.
Housing credit has started growing again. Outstanding housing loans stood at about ฿5.126 trillion in the second quarter, up from roughly ฿5.004 trillion a year earlier. That works out to growth of around 2.4%.
Where the growth comes from is more interesting. Commercial-bank housing loans increased only slightly, from roughly ฿2.713 trillion to ฿2.740 trillion. Housing lending by specialized financial institutions climbed more noticeably, from around ฿2.290 trillion to ฿2.386 trillion.
Thailand also still has more than ฿16 trillion of household debt, with the household-debt-to-GDP ratio remaining in the mid-80% range. Falling rates make a mortgage cheaper. They cannot turn a heavily indebted borrower into a good credit risk overnight.
Government measures are adding another push. Transfer and mortgage registration fees for qualifying homes have been cut to 0.01%, while temporarily relaxed loan-to-value rules make some purchases easier to finance.
Those policies are clearly helping transactions happen now. The recovery will look much healthier once sales keep improving without needing this much support.
Is Thailand’s second-hand housing market recovering faster than new homes?
Thailand’s second-hand housing market currently looks healthier than the new-build market, with completed resale transactions growing faster than developers are launching fresh projects.
REIC found that second-hand residential transfers increased 13.8% year on year in the first quarter, while their value rose 7.7%. Single houses accounted for 41.6% of those transfers.
The improvement also reached almost every price range below ฿7.51 million. That fits the broader affordability story: households are still buying homes, but demand drops away much faster once prices become expensive.
At the same time, the amount of resale stock advertised jumped sharply. REIC recorded 34.2% more second-hand homes listed for sale than a year earlier, while the advertised value almost doubled. Listings above ฿10 million increased 143.7%.
So the resale recovery is a bit messy. More second-hand homes are selling, particularly at accessible prices, but far more owners are also trying to sell expensive properties.
For buyers, that creates bargaining opportunities. For the housing market as a whole, it tells us the recovery is much deeper below the luxury end.
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Are Thailand’s big developers recovering faster than the housing market?
Yes. Some of Thailand’s strongest developers are already doing much better than the market around them, largely because buyers are concentrating around companies they trust.
AP Thailand entered the year with a backlog approaching ฿36.8 billion and reported around ฿11.2 billion of first-quarter net presales. Sansiri later reported approximately ฿10 billion of second-quarter presales, up 28% year on year, with a backlog of roughly ฿25.1 billion at mid-year.
Those figures look much stronger than the broader developer market. Aggregate first-quarter presales across the 12 listed developers tracked by Finansia fell 15% year on year to about ฿54.9 billion, the weakest first-quarter result in four years.
This concentration makes sense in a difficult mortgage market. Buyers worried about construction risk, financing or resale value are more likely to choose well-capitalized developers with established brands, finished projects and access to promotions.
The result is a housing market where AP or Sansiri can grow while weaker developers continue to struggle. That tells us who is winning the downturn rather than proving that Thai housing demand has recovered everywhere.
Are foreign buyers bringing Thailand’s condo market back?
Foreign buyers are still supporting important parts of Thailand’s condo market, but they are not driving the national recovery today.
REIC recorded 3,919 foreign condominium transfers worth about ฿16.39 billion in the first quarter of 2025. A year later, the number of foreign-owned condo transfers was roughly 17% lower. Transfer value also declined.
The biggest problem remains Chinese demand. Chinese buyers are still Thailand’s largest foreign condominium group, but economic weakness and tighter personal finances at home have reduced the purchasing power that once flooded projects in Bangkok, Pattaya and several tourist areas.
Yet the national decline hides some very strong local foreign demand. CBRE’s latest Phuket sales data show international buyers accounting for 67% of its first-half purchasers, with buyers coming from Russia, the United Kingdom, Canada, India, the United States and several European countries.
Downtown Bangkok also looks different from the national picture. CBRE found international buyers representing 32% of purchasers in its downtown condominium market during the first half, a notably larger share than in previous years.
Foreign demand therefore still matters enormously where the product is right. What Thailand has lost is the broad Chinese purchasing wave that once made foreign condo demand feel almost universal.
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Is Phuket already in a housing boom of its own?
Phuket is currently much closer to a genuine property expansion than Thailand overall, especially in condominiums, villas and branded residences aimed at international buyers.
First-quarter residential transfers in Phuket reached 2,548 units, up 17.9% year on year, while their value jumped 34.9% to about ฿10.37 billion. The fact that value grew almost twice as fast as units is important. Phuket buyers are moving toward more expensive property rather than simply creating extra transactions at the cheap end.
The latest CBRE figures strengthen that conclusion. Phuket condominium project launches increased 44.8% in the first half compared with the previous six months. Developers also launched 16 villa projects containing 224 units, with the ฿15 million to ฿35 million range accounting for the largest share.
CBRE’s own Phuket residential sales rose more than 45% year on year during the first half, and international buyers represented 67% of purchasers in its transaction sample.
Interestingly, the property strength has continued even while tourism stopped giving Phuket an obvious tailwind. Phuket Airport arrivals fell 1.4% year on year during the first half, and Thailand’s overall international tourist arrivals were down 4.9%.
That makes Phuket’s housing story harder to dismiss as a simple tourism rebound. International wealth, relocation demand and second-home buying are increasingly important on their own.
Which parts of Thailand are recovering fastest?
Thailand’s strongest housing recoveries are currently appearing in places with their own economic engine, particularly Phuket, Rayong and Khon Kaen.
Khon Kaen recorded 1,646 residential transfers in the first quarter, up 30.3% year on year. Their combined value increased almost as quickly, by 29.0% to roughly ฿3.15 billion. The close match between unit and value growth suggests a fairly broad increase rather than an unusual shift toward cheaper or more expensive homes.
Rayong recorded 2,691 transfers, up 24.0%, while value rose 25.2% to roughly ฿5.75 billion. Industrial employment and continued investment around the Eastern Economic Corridor give Rayong a demand source that much of Thailand does not have.
Phuket produced a different pattern. Its 17.9% increase in transfers came with a 34.9% increase in value, showing that the island is attracting a richer mix of purchases.
Bangkok was almost the mirror image: transfers rose 11.1% while value fell 4.5%.
Looking across these markets gives us a much clearer picture than the national average. Thailand’s housing recovery is strongest where buyers have a specific reason to be there, whether that is industrial jobs, regional economic activity or international lifestyle demand.
| Market | Transfer growth | Value growth | What is driving the recovery |
|---|---|---|---|
| Khon Kaen | +30.3% | +29.0% | Broad regional demand |
| Rayong | +24.0% | +25.2% | Industry and EEC employment |
| Phuket | +17.9% | +34.9% | International and higher-end demand |
| Bangkok | +11.1% | -4.5% | More activity at cheaper price points |
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What would prove that Thailand’s housing recovery has become a real one?
Thailand’s housing recovery becomes convincing once stronger sales survive alongside rising transaction values, firmer prices and more new supply.
Right now, too much of the improvement still depends on buyers moving down in price and developers moving down in risk. The nationwide gap between transfer growth and value growth shows that clearly. So does the way Bangkok developers are achieving better condo sales rates while keeping launches unusually low.
Fresh demand is another test. Developer presales need to rise consistently rather than relying mainly on transfers from projects sold months earlier. Knight Frank has highlighted the same issue in Bangkok: keeping launch-period condominium sales above 50% while supply begins to increase would be a much more powerful recovery sign.
Prices should also strengthen beyond a few condominium segments. Bangkok-region new condos are currently up 1.6% year on year, while low-rise prices remain down 0.9% and EEC low-rise prices are almost completely flat.
Finally, the regional recovery needs to spread. Phuket, Rayong and Khon Kaen already show what healthier housing demand looks like: units and transaction values growing together. Bangkok still does not.
That gives us a fairly clear line between today’s stabilization and a full recovery. Thailand is moving toward that line, but has not crossed it.
So, is Thailand’s housing market actually recovering?
Partly yes. Thailand’s housing market has clearly improved from the slump, but the evidence still points to an uneven early recovery rather than a broad national comeback.
Transactions give us the strongest reason to say conditions have turned. Nationwide transfers have returned to double-digit year-on-year growth, second-hand transfers are up 13.8%, Bangkok transactions are rising again, and Bangkok condo launch sales have recovered to just above 50%.
Other parts of the market are still far less convincing. Buyers are skewing toward cheaper homes, Bangkok transfer value is falling, low-rise prices remain soft, mass-market developers are keeping launches low, Chinese condo demand has weakened and household debt continues to make mortgage approval difficult.
The geography makes the answer even clearer. Phuket is already behaving like a real growth market. Rayong and Khon Kaen are showing broad transaction gains backed by local economic demand. Bangkok is recovering more cautiously and much more cheaply.
Developers have also improved the numbers themselves by cutting supply and targeting projects more carefully. That is healthy market repair, but rising sales rates still do not prove that Thai households suddenly have much more money to spend.
Thailand has probably passed the worst part of its housing downturn. Several local markets are already growing again, and national transaction activity has turned upward. What we still do not have is a countrywide recovery where sales, prices, purchasing power, foreign demand and new construction all rise together.
Thailand’s housing market is recovering. It just has not fully recovered yet.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Thailand’s housing market is genuinely recovering by looking at the parts of the market that would normally strengthen together in a broad upcycle: transactions, transaction value, prices, developer launches, financing conditions, resale activity, foreign demand and regional performance.
We prioritized official data from Thailand’s Real Estate Information Center and the Bank of Thailand wherever comparable national or regional figures were available. We used government policy sources for the current transfer-fee and mortgage-fee reductions and for the temporary relaxation of loan-to-value rules.
We supplemented those official datasets with current research from Knight Frank and CBRE for areas where market advisers publish faster detail on Bangkok condominium launches, launch-period sales rates, luxury sales, Phuket project activity and international-buyer composition. Those figures are used only for the markets they directly cover, not as national proxies.
Company-level evidence from AP Thailand and Sansiri is used to show how stronger listed developers are performing relative to the broader market. Their presales and backlog figures are treated as company indicators rather than proof of a nationwide recovery.
Where useful, we calculated relationships between published figures. In particular, we compare growth in transfer numbers with growth in total transfer value to estimate the direction of average value per transaction. That is a sales-mix indicator, not a house-price index, so we do not treat it as evidence that an identical property has risen or fallen by the same amount.
We also read condominium sales rates together with supply. A higher reservation rate is much more convincing when developers are increasing launches than when they have sharply cut project volume. This is why Bangkok’s improved launch-period sales rates are treated as evidence of repair, but not yet as proof of a full demand recovery.
Regional comparisons are used to test how broad the recovery really is. Phuket, Rayong, Khon Kaen and Bangkok were compared because their recent transfer and transaction-value patterns are materially different, helping separate markets where activity and spending are rising together from markets where cheaper purchases are driving most of the rebound.
Key sources include REIC’s Q1 2026 national housing-market release, REIC’s detailed Q1 2026 market results, REIC’s 2025 Bangkok-region market review, REIC’s Q1 2026 Bangkok metropolitan analysis, REIC’s Q2 2026 new condominium price index, REIC’s Q2 2026 low-rise housing price index, REIC’s Q2 2026 EEC low-rise price index, Knight Frank on Bangkok condominium sales and launches, CBRE on Bangkok and Phuket luxury residential demand, CBRE’s H1 2026 Phuket figures, the Bank of Thailand’s August 2026 monetary-policy decision, the Bank of Thailand’s housing-loan statistics, the Bank of Thailand’s LTV extension, the Royal Thai Government on transfer and mortgage fee reductions, AP Thailand’s Q1 2026 company disclosure, and Sansiri’s H1 2026 company disclosure.
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Real Estate Broker, Zest Real Estate
