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SUMMARY
Yes, Thailand property is probably finally past the bottom, but mainly in transaction activity. The market is recovering from a very weak base, and prices, household confidence and mass-market affordability have not caught up yet.
The strongest evidence is the rebound in completed transactions. Nationwide housing transfers rose 17.6% in the first half, while transfer value increased 9.8%, showing that buyers are returning even though the money flowing through the market is rising more slowly than the number of deals.
That gap matters. The implied average value per transferred home fell from roughly THB2.75 million to THB2.56 million, which suggests that the recovery is being led by affordable deals rather than buyers bidding prices higher.
Resale homes are carrying a large part of the rebound. Around 63% of nationwide transfers involved second-hand property, so Thailand is clearing existing housing stock faster than developers are creating a new-build boom.
Bangkok condos have improved, but inventory is still heavy. Launch-period sales rose from 45.3% in the first quarter to 51.7% in the second, while Colliers' wider market figures still imply roughly 60,800 unsold units.
Developers are helping the recovery by staying cautious. Smaller projects, delayed launches and tighter supply discipline are giving demand time to catch up instead of immediately recreating the excess inventory that hurt the market before.
Lower interest rates and temporary policy support are clearly helping, but they have not solved the main financing problem. The policy rate is 1.00%, housing lending is growing again and qualifying buyers can access up to 100% LTV, yet household debt near 86% of GDP still leaves many borrowers unable to pass bank credit tests.
The first-half rebound also looks stronger than the full-year picture. REIC expects only 2.3% growth in housing transfers for the year, which implies that second-half volumes could be about 10% lower than a year earlier after the unusually strong first six months.
The recovery is extremely uneven by segment. Bangkok luxury condos and premium Phuket property are already behaving much better than mortgage-dependent mass housing, while foreign condo demand nationally is still weak despite stronger Russian and other non-Chinese buying in some tourist markets.
Buyer confidence remains the clearest reason not to call this a broad housing boom. REIC's latest demand-confidence index is still below neutral, and only 27% of respondents planned to buy within six months.
The market therefore looks past its worst point without looking fully healthy. Thailand has probably moved beyond the transaction bottom, but the next phase is more likely to be a slow, selective recovery than a sharp nationwide rebound.
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Has Thailand property actually passed the bottom?
Thailand property has probably passed the worst point for transaction activity, although the broader housing market is still much weaker than the transfer numbers alone suggest.
REIC recorded 167,665 housing ownership transfers nationwide in the first half of 2026, up 17.6% from 142,619 a year earlier. Transfer value rose 9.8% to THB429.8 billion. Low-rise homes and condos both contributed, so this was broader than a rebound in one small corner of the market.
That is a meaningful change from 2025, when REIC was still describing a housing market where demand and new supply were both shrinking. More homes are changing hands today, banks are issuing more mortgages, and developers have become more careful about adding supply.
Prices and buyer confidence have moved much less. That is why we think Thailand has probably crossed its transaction bottom first. A full housing recovery would require stronger prices, healthier household finances and much more confident buyers.
| Thailand housing market | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes transferred | 142,619 | 167,665 | +17.6% |
| Transfer value | THB391.6bn | THB429.8bn | +9.8% |
| Low-rise transfers | ~97,400 | 111,624 | +14.6% |
| Condo transfers | ~45,200 | 56,041 | +24.1% |
Is Thailand's 17.6% jump in property transfers really that impressive?
Thailand's 17.6% rise in housing transfers is a strong rebound, but buyers are clearly returning at lower price points than before.
The clue is the gap between units and money. The number of homes transferred increased 17.6%, while total transfer value rose only 9.8%. Based on those REIC figures, the average value per transferred home dropped from roughly THB2.75 million to THB2.56 million, a decline of about 6.6%.
Low-rise housing shows an even wider gap. Unit transfers increased 14.6%, while their combined value rose 6.1%. That puts the implied average value per transaction roughly 7% below the previous year. Condo values held up better, although they also grew more slowly than condo volumes.
So the market is clearing more transactions because buyers are finding properties they can actually afford. They are not yet chasing prices higher across Thailand.
| Implied average transfer value | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Approx. change |
|---|---|---|---|
| All housing | THB2.75m | THB2.56m | -6.6% |
| Low-rise homes | ~THB2.90m | ~THB2.68m | about -7% |
| Condominiums | ~THB2.42m | ~THB2.33m | about -4% |
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Are cheap second-hand homes carrying Thailand's property recovery?
Second-hand homes are doing much of the work in Thailand's recovery right now.
Around 63% of nationwide housing transfers in the first half involved resale properties, according to REIC. New homes accounted for roughly 37%. In practical terms, almost two out of every three completed purchases happened outside developers' new-project inventories.
Affordability helps explain it. The THB2.01 million to THB3 million range accounted for roughly 24% of transactions. A household struggling to qualify for a larger mortgage can often buy more space or a better location in the resale market than from a developer selling a newly completed unit.
That also fits the falling implied value per transaction. Thai housing demand has not suddenly become wealthier. More deals are happening because existing homes are reaching prices that buyers can handle.
For developers, resale liquidity is encouraging and uncomfortable at the same time. It proves that housing demand still exists, while giving buyers thousands of alternatives to newly built stock.
Has Thailand's new-build property market bottomed yet?
Thailand's new-build market looks closer to stabilization, mainly because developers have stopped flooding weak areas with new supply.
REIC reported that new housing launches in Bangkok and surrounding provinces fell sharply early in the year. Land-allocation activity also dropped. Other datasets later showed more condo launches, but much of that increase came off unusually weak comparisons and was concentrated in projects where developers already believed demand existed.
Knight Frank's latest Bangkok condo research makes that behavior easy to see. Developers have been shrinking project sizes and focusing launches on proven locations. The launch-period sales rate improved from 45.3% in the first quarter to 51.7% in the second.
Expensive land also limits how far developers can cut prices. REIC's Bangkok-area vacant-land index was still 6.2% above its level a year earlier, despite falling 1.8% quarter over quarter. Developers therefore have to adjust through smaller projects, promotions, different unit sizes or delayed launches when buyers refuse higher prices.
That supply discipline is helping Thailand work through its existing stock. We would become much more bullish if improving sales continued for several quarters without developers immediately returning to oversized launches.
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Are Bangkok condo buyers really coming back now?
Bangkok condo buyers are coming back, but they are still choosing projects very carefully.
Knight Frank found that newly launched Bangkok condo projects achieved a 51.7% launch-period sales rate in the second quarter, up from 45.3% in the first. Across the first half, buyers reserved 3,994 of 8,501 newly launched units during their respective launch quarters, giving a 47% sales rate.
That is clearly better. It is also far from a market where developers can launch almost anything and expect buyers to absorb it.
Colliers' wider Bangkok data tells the same story from another angle. Its cumulative condo take-up rate reached 71.7%, improving from a year earlier, while roughly 28.3% of the stock it tracked remained unsold. Applied to its 214,849-unit market, that leaves around 60,800 unsold units.
Bangkok condo demand has turned in the right direction. The size of the remaining inventory means developers still have to earn every sale through location, pricing or product quality.
| Bangkok condo indicator | Latest reading | What we take from it |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 new-launch sales rate | 45.3% | Buyers remained selective |
| Q2 new-launch sales rate | 51.7% | Clear improvement |
| H1 launch-period sales rate | 47.0% | Recovery still incomplete |
| Colliers cumulative take-up | 71.7% | Absorption is improving |
| Estimated unsold share | 28.3% | Inventory remains heavy |
| Approx. unsold units | ~60,800 | Plenty of stock still available |
Are Thailand property prices finally rising again?
Thailand property prices are still too soft and uneven to confirm a nationwide price recovery.
REIC's new low-rise housing price index for Bangkok and surrounding provinces reached 131.2 in the second quarter. It edged up 0.2% from the previous quarter while remaining 0.9% below its level a year earlier.
New condo asking prices can look stronger, but the mix of projects changes dramatically from quarter to quarter. When more luxury projects launch in central Bangkok, the average asking price rises even if an ordinary condo has barely changed in value.
Promotions add another layer. Developers commonly protect headline prices while offering furniture, transfer-fee support, financing packages or other incentives. A published asking price can therefore stay flat while the effective amount a buyer pays quietly falls.
For now, we see pockets of firmer pricing rather than a national move higher. Transaction volumes have turned before prices.
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Is Thailand running out of unsold homes?
Thailand still has plenty of unsold housing, especially in Bangkok condos and parts of the low-rise market.
The roughly 60,800 unsold Bangkok condo units implied by Colliers' latest market figures are enough to prevent any serious shortage narrative. CBRE has also noted that unsold low-rise inventory built up over many years, although slower launches are finally reducing the pace at which that stock grows.
This is actually one of the healthier developments in the market today. Developers do not need explosive demand to repair inventory. They need sales to keep moving while new construction stays controlled.
If that continues, the unsold pile gradually becomes smaller and developers regain pricing power later. Thailand has started that process, but it has not finished it.
Have lower interest rates made Thai homes affordable again?
Lower rates are helping Thailand property, but mortgage approval remains the real obstacle for many buyers.
The Bank of Thailand's policy rate is currently 1.00%, giving borrowers a much friendlier backdrop than during the earlier tightening cycle. REIC reported THB289.3 billion of new individual housing loans in the first half, up 12.2% from a year earlier, while second-quarter lending grew even faster.
The Bank of Thailand has also extended temporary LTV relief. Qualifying borrowers can receive loans up to 100% of collateral value in categories that would normally face lower ceilings.
Still, Thailand's household debt remains very high at roughly 86% of GDP. Banks can offer a theoretically generous LTV and still reject a household whose income, existing debt or repayment history fails the credit test.
That explains why today's market can have cheaper money and rising mortgage issuance without producing a broad buying frenzy. Strong borrowers can act again. Weaker households are still being filtered out.
| Financing indicator | Current reading | What it means for housing |
|---|---|---|
| BOT policy rate | 1.00% | Borrowing backdrop is easier |
| H1 new housing loans | THB289.3bn | +12.2% YoY |
| Q2 housing lending growth | +18.4% YoY | Mortgage activity accelerated |
| Household debt/GDP | ~86% | Household balance sheets remain stretched |
| Temporary LTV ceiling | Up to 100% | Smaller down-payment barrier |
| Main constraint now | Credit approval | Many buyers still cannot qualify |
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Is government stimulus making Thailand property look healthier than it really is?
Government support is clearly lifting Thailand property transactions, so we should discount part of the current rebound when judging underlying demand.
The Bank of Thailand extended temporary LTV relief for another year, and reduced transfer and mortgage-registration fees have also made eligible purchases cheaper to complete. REIC itself directly linked the strong first-half transfer numbers to government measures.
Those policies are doing exactly what they were designed to do: lowering the friction around buying property when household confidence is weak.
The unanswered question is what happens after the support disappears. If transactions remain healthy once buyers lose some of these incentives, we will have much stronger evidence of a durable recovery. If activity falls sharply, part of today's demand was simply brought forward.
For now, policy support deserves a meaningful share of the credit for the rebound.
Will Thailand property keep growing this fast in the second half?
Thailand's first-half property rebound is very unlikely to continue at the same speed through the rest of the year.
REIC forecasts roughly 323,479 housing transfers for the full year, only 2.3% above 2025. That projection becomes much more interesting once we subtract the first-half transactions already completed.
A 2.3% annual increase implies roughly 316,200 transfers last year. About 142,600 happened in the first half, leaving around 173,600 for the second half. REIC's current full-year forecast leaves roughly 155,800 transactions for the second half of this year.
If that forecast is right, second-half volume would be about 10% lower than a year earlier.
So the eye-catching first-half growth partly reflects timing and a weak comparison base. Thailand may still finish the year with more transactions, but the next few quarters are likely to feel much less dramatic.
| Housing transfers | H1 | H2 | Full year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 142,619 | ~173,600 | ~316,200 |
| 2026 | 167,665 | ~155,800 forecast | 323,479 forecast |
| YoY change | +17.6% | about -10% | +2.3% |
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Are Thai developers confident enough to start building aggressively again?
Thai developers are still behaving cautiously, which tells us the industry itself does not believe a broad boom has arrived.
Large developers can still generate serious sales. AP Thailand, for example, reported THB12.3 billion of net presales in the second quarter and a backlog of THB37.4 billion while keeping net debt-to-equity around 0.66 times.
Smaller developers face a much harder environment. REIC's early-year permitting data weakened sharply, and CBRE has found new low-rise supply becoming increasingly concentrated among established developers. Some planned launches have been delayed while companies focus on clearing stock already on the market.
This can actually improve the next stage of the cycle. Strong developers keep selling while weaker players add less inventory, giving demand time to catch up.
We would worry more if developers were already rushing back into land purchases and giant speculative launches. That is not what they are doing today.
Is Bangkok luxury property already booming again?
Bangkok luxury condos are one of the few parts of Thailand where the word "recovery" may actually understate current demand.
CBRE found completed downtown luxury and super-luxury condo projects averaging around 93% sold, with the luxury segment at roughly 95%. Central Lumpini projects handled by CBRE generated more than THB2 billion of sales in the second quarter alone.
CBRE's own residential sales across Bangkok and Phuket rose more than 182% in the first half compared with a year earlier, while its Bangkok sales increased by more than 300%. We should treat company sales growth carefully because new launches affect the comparison, but the magnitude still shows how active the premium segment has become.
The buyer base is also unusually resilient. In CBRE's downtown Bangkok transactions, Thai buyers represented 68% and international buyers 32%. Wealthier Thai households and cash-rich foreign purchasers are much less exposed to the mortgage constraints hurting mass-market demand.
Bangkok luxury property is well ahead of the broader Thai housing cycle.
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Are foreign property buyers coming back to Thailand?
Foreign condo demand in Thailand is still weak overall, even though Russians and some other nationalities are becoming much more important.
REIC reported a sharp decline in foreign condo activity early in the year, with first-quarter transfers falling 17.3% by units and 17.9% by value. Chinese buyers remained the largest foreign group, although Chinese demand was hit particularly hard by weaker domestic finances and tighter controls around capital leaving China.
The interesting change is geographical and national rather than simply "foreigners are back." Russian buyers have become much more visible in Phuket and Chonburi, while premium Bangkok developers are increasingly targeting buyers from India, the Middle East and other wealthy markets.
Chonburi illustrates the diversification. Chinese and Russian buyers both spend heavily there, giving Pattaya and nearby condo markets access to two large foreign customer groups. Phuket is even more exposed to Russian capital.
Foreign demand these days is much less dependent on one nationality than during the old China-led boom. That makes some tourist markets more resilient, while national foreign condo volumes still need to recover before we can call this a broad foreign-buyer comeback.
Is Phuket property already past the bottom?
Phuket property is already behaving like a different cycle from Thailand's mass housing market.
International wealth, second-home demand and tourism give Phuket access to buyers who often do not need Thai mortgages. Russian demand is particularly important, and the island continues to attract developers targeting branded residences, luxury villas and high-end condos.
CBRE's latest residential results also show strong demand across Bangkok and Phuket premium properties. Buyers in those markets are responding to scarcity of good locations and lifestyle appeal rather than the same affordability calculations driving a THB2 million suburban Bangkok purchase.
There is still plenty of risk. International buyers can disappear quickly when exchange rates, visa rules, air connectivity or geopolitical conditions change. Thailand's foreign tourist arrivals also fell 8.1% year over year in the second quarter according to CBRE's latest market review.
We would still put Phuket among the clearest Thai markets already past its recent bottom, especially at the premium end. Its recovery simply cannot be used as a proxy for the whole country.
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Are Thai homebuyers confident enough to keep the recovery going?
Thai homebuyers are still remarkably cautious, and this remains the biggest weakness in the recovery story.
REIC's latest Bangkok and surrounding provinces housing-demand confidence index came in at 41.5, below the neutral 50 level and slightly lower than 41.7 the previous quarter. Only 27% of respondents planned to buy a home within the following six months.
That reading sits awkwardly beside stronger transfers, improving condo launch sales and faster mortgage issuance. We think the gap is explained by bargain-seeking, government incentives and better conditions for qualified borrowers rather than a big change in how households feel about their finances.
This is where the recovery still looks fragile. A healthy housing expansion normally becomes much easier once households expect their incomes and financial position to improve. Thailand has not reached that point yet.
Could Thailand property fall to another new low?
Another nationwide property low is possible, but we think it would now require a meaningful economic or financial shock.
Several buffers are stronger than they were during the worst part of the slowdown. Interest rates are low, mortgage lending is growing again, LTV rules remain relaxed, resale stock is moving, and developers have reduced unnecessary supply.
The remaining weak spots are easy to identify: high household debt, strict bank underwriting, weak buyer confidence, softer Chinese demand and a large stock of unsold homes. A recession or renewed credit squeeze could turn those problems into another downturn.
Without that kind of deterioration, slow improvement looks more likely than a return to the old low. Thailand has already done much of the painful adjustment through fewer launches, promotions, cheaper resale transactions and several years of weak volumes.
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So, is Thailand property finally past the bottom?
Yes, Thailand property is probably past its transaction bottom, but the country is only in the early stage of a very uneven recovery.
As seen above, nationwide transfers rose 17.6%, Bangkok new-launch condo sales improved from 45.3% to 51.7%, mortgage issuance is growing again, and developers are keeping supply under tighter control. Those changes are broad enough for us to stop treating every improvement as noise.
The weaker evidence explains why we would stop short of calling this a property boom. Average transaction values have fallen, resale homes dominate completed purchases, buyer confidence remains below neutral, Bangkok still carries tens of thousands of unsold condos, and foreign demand remains weaker than during previous cycles.
The full-year forecast is another useful reality check. REIC expects only 2.3% growth in housing transfers for the year, which implies a noticeably weaker second half after the unusually strong first six months.
Different parts of Thailand are also moving at completely different speeds. Bangkok luxury condos and premium Phuket property are already enjoying much stronger demand. Affordable resale homes are clearing because prices work for buyers. Mortgage-dependent mass housing is still struggling with household debt and credit approval.
So yes, we think Thailand property has finally moved past the worst point of the downturn. What comes next looks more like a slow climb than a sharp rebound, and anyone waiting for the whole country to move together will probably be waiting a long time.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Thailand property has actually moved beyond the bottom of its recent housing downturn. We separate the transaction cycle from a full housing recovery, because transfers can rebound while prices, confidence and household finances remain weak.
We looked separately at nationwide transaction activity, transaction values and pricing, resale versus new-build demand, unsold inventory and absorption, mortgage conditions, household debt, government support, developer behaviour, buyer confidence, foreign demand, and differences between major locations and price segments. National indicators are used for national conclusions, while Bangkok, Phuket, luxury and foreign-buyer data are kept within their proper scope.
We did not judge any one number in isolation. Where possible, we compared related indicators to understand what was driving the headline result: transaction volumes against transaction values, launches against absorption, easier LTV rules against actual mortgage lending and household debt, and the strong first half against REIC's full-year forecast.
We also calculated a small number of derived figures where they exposed something the headline numbers did not show directly. These include the implied average value per transferred home and the second-half transaction volume implied by REIC's full-year forecast.
Our evidence hierarchy favored direct official statistics and first-hand institutional sources, particularly REIC and the Bank of Thailand. We supplemented those with current market research from Knight Frank, Colliers and CBRE where official statistics did not provide the same project-, segment- or location-level detail.
Government support is treated as part of the current market environment rather than as proof of stronger underlying demand. The Bank of Thailand's temporary LTV relaxation and reduced transfer and mortgage-registration fees can lift transactions today, so we distinguish policy-assisted activity from a fully self-sustaining recovery.
Key sources used for this analysis include: REIC on H1 2026 nationwide housing transfers, transfer values, resale activity, mortgage lending and the full-year outlook, REIC on the Q1 2026 Bangkok and surrounding provinces housing market, REIC's Q2 2026 low-rise housing price index, REIC's Q2 2026 vacant-land price index, REIC's Q2 2026 housing-demand confidence index, REIC on Q1 2026 foreign condominium transfers, the Bank of Thailand's August 2026 monetary-policy decision, the Bank of Thailand on the extension of temporary LTV relaxation, the Thai Government on reduced property transfer and mortgage-registration fees, Knight Frank Thailand on the Q2 2026 Bangkok condominium market, Colliers on Bangkok condominium inventory and take-up, and CBRE Thailand's 2026 Mid-Year Outlook together with CBRE's Bangkok and Phuket luxury residential data.
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Attaya Suriyawonghae 🇹🇭
Real Estate Broker, Zest Real Estate
