How is the property market forecast in Osaka?

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Japan Property Pack

Yes, the analysis of Osaka's property market is included in our pack

Who is the author of this content?

BAMBOOROUTES

A team specialized in real estate investing in APAC countries (Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, etc.).

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Osaka. If you'd like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.

How this content was created 🔎📝

At BambooRoutes, we explore the Japanese real estate market every day. Our team doesn't just analyze data from a distance—we're actively engaging with local realtors, investors, and property managers in cities like Osaka, Tokyo, and Kyoto. This hands-on approach allows us to gain a deep understanding of the market from the inside out.

These observations are originally based on what we've learned through these conversations and our observations. But it was not enough. To back them up, we also needed to rely on trusted resources

We prioritize accuracy and authority. Trends lacking solid data or expert validation were excluded.

Trustworthiness is central to our work. Every source and citation is clearly listed, ensuring transparency. A writing AI-powered tool was used solely to refine readability and engagement.

To make the information accessible, our team designed custom infographics that clarify key points. We hope you will like them! All illustrations and media were created in-house and added manually.

What is the current average price per square meter for apartments and houses in Osaka, and how has it changed over the past five years?

The current average price per square meter for existing apartments in Osaka City stands at ¥707,300 (approximately $4,700) as of September 2025.

This represents a significant 14.5% increase from ¥617,500 recorded in June 2024, demonstrating the accelerating pace of price growth in Osaka's residential market. Newly listed condominium units command even higher prices, averaging ¥788,200 per square meter, which marks a substantial 20.3% year-over-year increase.

Detached houses in Osaka present a different picture, with average prices varying significantly by location. In the Hokusetsu area, prices average ¥426,700 per square meter, while North Osaka has experienced a slight decrease of 0.8% year-over-year, reflecting the typical suburban dynamics where single-family homes don't appreciate as rapidly as central apartment units.

Over the past five years, Osaka has witnessed accelerating price appreciation. The market experienced modest annual growth of 4-6% from 2020-2023, but this momentum has intensified dramatically in 2024 and 2025, with current annual growth rates reaching 8-10%.

It's something we develop in our Japan property pack.

How many residential property transactions were completed last year in Osaka, and how does that compare with the year before?

Osaka's residential property market completed 28,973 total transactions in 2024, representing a significant recovery in market activity.

The breakdown shows 17,119 existing condominium sales and 11,854 detached house transactions. Both segments experienced robust growth compared to 2023, with existing condominiums rising 4.5% and detached houses surging 11.1% year-over-year. This marked a strong rebound from the mild contractions experienced in previous years.

Monthly transaction data from 2025 confirms this upward trend continues. June 2025 recorded 525 units sold in Osaka City alone, up from 491 units in June 2024. Similar year-over-year increases have been consistent throughout the first half of 2025, indicating sustained buyer interest and market confidence.

The increased transaction volume reflects improved market sentiment, foreign buyer interest, and anticipation of continued price appreciation driven by supply constraints and infrastructure developments.

What are the projected growth rates for property prices in Osaka over the next one, three, and five years?

Property prices in Osaka are projected to maintain strong growth momentum through 2026, with forecasts indicating 8-10% appreciation for 2025.

Short-term outlook for 2026 suggests continued robust growth, though potentially moderating to 6-8% as the market begins to absorb current price levels and supply constraints gradually ease. The Expo 2025 effect and major infrastructure completions will continue supporting prices through mid-2026.

The three-year forecast (2025-2028) anticipates sustained above-average growth compared to national rates, with annual appreciation likely averaging 5-7% as new construction projects begin delivering additional supply while demand remains strong from both domestic and international buyers.

Five-year projections (2025-2030) indicate Osaka will continue outperforming Japan's national average while trailing Tokyo's peak growth rates. Leading property consultancies expect annual growth to settle into a 4-6% range by 2028-2030, supported by ongoing urbanization trends, infrastructure improvements, and the city's competitive positioning within the Kansai region.

These forecasts assume continued economic stability, moderate interest rate environment, and successful completion of major development projects currently underway.

How do rental yields in Osaka compare to the national average in Japan, and what are the current vacancy rates in different neighborhoods?

Osaka offers significantly more attractive rental yields compared to both national averages and major competing markets like Tokyo.

Location	Average Gross Rental Yield	Vacancy Rate
Central Osaka Wards	5.5-7%	~4%
Osaka City Overall	4.5-6%	6-8%
Greater Osaka Region	4.5-5.5%	8-12%
Japan National Average	4.2%	14%
Central Tokyo	3.4%	5-7%
Rural Japan	2-4%	25-30%

What percentage of property purchases in Osaka are made by foreign buyers, and is that number rising or declining?

Foreign buyers currently represent under 10% of total property purchases in Osaka, but their influence is growing steadily across multiple market segments.

This percentage has been increasing consistently over the past two years, driven primarily by Japan's weak yen making properties more affordable for international buyers, growing awareness of Osaka's investment potential, and the upcoming Expo 2025 generating additional international interest.

Foreign buyer activity is particularly concentrated in central districts and luxury segments, where their market share can reach 15-20% of transactions in premium developments. The trend is expected to accelerate through 2025 and beyond as Japan maintains its open policies for non-resident property ownership.

Key factors driving foreign investment include Osaka's higher rental yields compared to Tokyo, lower entry costs, and the city's strategic position as a gateway to the Kansai region's economic activities.

How many new housing units are expected to be completed in Osaka in the next three years, and how does that compare to expected demand?

Osaka faces a significant supply shortage with only approximately 15,000 new condominium units projected for completion in 2025, representing a 10% decrease from the previous year.

This continues a multi-year declining trend from 24,000 new units in 2022 and 19,600 in 2023. The three-year pipeline through 2028 includes 28 new tower condominium projects, with typically 4-5 major residential towers scheduled for completion annually, but total supply remains insufficient to meet growing demand.

Expected demand significantly exceeds planned supply due to increasing household formation rates of approximately 56,000 new households annually in Osaka Prefecture, despite overall population decline. The mismatch between supply and demand is a primary driver of continued price appreciation.

Major developers have scaled back construction due to rising material costs and labor shortages, while established demand from both domestic buyers and growing foreign investment continues to pressure the limited available inventory.

It's something we develop in our Japan property pack.

What is the population growth rate in Osaka, and how many new households are being formed each year?

Osaka metropolitan area population totals 18.92 million as of 2025, experiencing a decline of 0.24% annually, following broader Japanese demographic trends.

Despite population decline, household formation continues to increase significantly. Osaka Prefecture recorded approximately 4.309 million households in 2024 compared to 4.253 million in 2023, representing a net annual increase of about 56,000 households. This apparent contradiction occurs due to shrinking average household sizes and ongoing urbanization patterns.

The trend toward smaller household sizes reflects societal changes including aging population, delayed marriage, and lifestyle preferences for independent living. Young professionals and elderly individuals increasingly choose smaller living arrangements, driving demand for compact apartments and studio units.

Continued urban migration from rural areas to Osaka also contributes to household formation, as the city remains an economic hub attracting workers despite national population trends.

How have mortgage interest rates in Japan shifted over the last two years, and what effect are they projected to have on Osaka's housing affordability?

Japanese mortgage interest rates have risen modestly but remain historically low by global standards as of September 2025.

The Flat 35 program for 21-35 year fixed-rate loans has increased to 3.69% by March 2025, up from 3.57% in late 2024. Five-year fixed rates at major banks have reached 4.11%, representing recent highs but still competitive internationally. These increases reflect the Bank of Japan's gradual monetary policy normalization.

The rate increases have begun to moderately impact affordability, particularly for first-time buyers and those purchasing higher-priced properties. However, the ultra-low starting point means mortgages remain accessible for most qualified buyers, and the effect on market demand has been limited.

Future rate projections suggest continued gradual increases through 2026-2027, which may eventually moderate property price appreciation as buyer cost sensitivity increases. The overall impact on Osaka's market is expected to be gradual rather than dramatic, given the city's strong fundamental demand drivers.

What are the average time-on-market numbers for properties listed in Osaka, and how has that figure changed year-over-year?

Properties in central Osaka are selling more rapidly than in previous years, with well-located units often moving quickly due to strong buyer demand and limited supply.

While comprehensive time-on-market data requires more detailed analysis, market observations indicate that new condominium units in prime locations frequently sell during pre-construction phases or within weeks of completion. This acceleration reflects the current supply-demand imbalance favoring sellers.

The trend toward faster sales has been particularly pronounced in central wards and areas near major infrastructure developments, where buyer competition is most intense. Properties in outer districts may still require 2-4 months to sell, depending on pricing and condition.

This rapid absorption rate is expected to continue through the Expo period and major infrastructure completions, as buyer urgency remains high amid expectations of continued price appreciation.

We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Japan versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you're planning to invest there.

Which districts of Osaka have seen the highest price appreciation in the past three years, and by what percentage?

The six central wards of Osaka have led price appreciation over the past three years, with several districts experiencing double-digit annual growth.

1. Joto-ku: Leading with approximately 10.5% annual appreciation, driven by proximity to central business districts and transportation improvements
2. Kita-ku: Recording 10.2% growth annually, benefiting from major commercial developments and excellent connectivity
3. Naniwa-ku: Achieving 9.7% appreciation, supported by its central location and ongoing urban renewal projects
4. Chuo-ku: Experiencing 8-9% growth, reflecting its status as Osaka's primary business district
5. Fukushima-ku and Nishi-ku: Both recording 7-8% annual appreciation, driven by residential development and improved transportation links

Properties located near new transportation infrastructure, particularly areas benefiting from the Kita-Osaka Express extension and Bay area redevelopments, have seen outsized price increases often exceeding district averages by 2-3 percentage points.

How many large-scale infrastructure or urban redevelopment projects are currently underway in Osaka, and what impact are they expected to have on nearby property values?

Osaka is experiencing unprecedented large-scale development with 28 new tower condominiums scheduled for completion by 2031 and several transformative urban redevelopment projects currently underway.

Major projects include Grand Green Osaka, the Nakanoshima 5-Chome redevelopment, and the integrated resort (IR) complex development. The Expo 2025 has catalyzed extensive infrastructure improvements including transportation upgrades, public space enhancements, and utility modernization across multiple districts.

These projects are expected to create substantial positive impacts on nearby property values. Historical analysis of similar developments suggests properties within 500 meters of major infrastructure improvements typically appreciate 15-25% above market averages during construction and completion phases.

The concentration of multiple large-scale projects creates synergistic effects, with experts predicting continued above-average appreciation in directly impacted neighborhoods through 2028. Transportation improvements alone are projected to boost property values by 10-15% in newly connected areas.

It's something we develop in our Japan property pack.

What do leading financial institutions and property research firms forecast for Osaka's housing market performance compared to Tokyo and Kyoto over the next five years?

Leading financial institutions and property research firms project Osaka will deliver steady, above-national-average returns over the next five years, positioning between Tokyo's premium performance and Kyoto's more modest growth.

City	5-Year Price Growth Forecast	Key Advantages
Tokyo	6-9% annually	Global financial center, highest liquidity
Osaka	4-6% annually	Higher yields, lower entry costs, infrastructure growth
Kyoto	3-5% annually	Tourism appeal, cultural significance, limited supply
Japan National	2-4% annually	Stable market, low interest rates

Osaka's competitive advantage lies in offering more affordable entry points while maintaining higher rental yields than Tokyo (4.5-7% vs 3.4%). Major financial institutions expect this yield premium to persist, making Osaka attractive for income-focused investors.

Conclusion

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.

Sources

1. RE/MAX Apex Monthly Report - July 2025
2. RE/MAX Apex Monthly Report - June 2025
3. BambooRoutes - Osaka Price Forecasts
4. BambooRoutes - Osaka Real Estate Market Analysis
5. Global Property Guide - Japan Price History
6. Wagaya Japan - Market Analysis
7. BambooRoutes - Average Rent in Japan
8. Daibiru Corporation - Market Report
9. MacroTrends - Osaka Population Data
10. Statista - Japan Home Loan Interest Rates