How's the real estate market doing in Osaka? (2026)

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Japan Property Pack

Yes, the analysis of Osaka's property market is included in our pack

How's the real estate market going in Osaka in 2026?

What's the average days-on-market in Osaka in 2026?

As of early 2026, our confident estimate for the average days-on-market for residential properties in Osaka is around 75 to 95 days, depending on property type and location.

For well-priced condominiums in central Osaka wards like Kita-ku, Chuo-ku, and Nishi-ku, you can expect listings to move in roughly 70 to 80 days, while family homes in city-adjacent suburbs typically sit closer to 90 to 100 days before signing a contract.

Compared to one or two years ago, the days-on-market in Osaka has remained relatively stable, with a slight compression in prime areas due to rising demand and limited inventory, especially for used condominiums near major rail stations.

Are properties selling above or below asking in Osaka in 2026?

As of early 2026, properties in Osaka are generally selling slightly below asking price, with an average sale-to-asking ratio of around 95% to 97%, meaning buyers typically negotiate a 3% to 5% discount from the listed price.

Based on Kinki REINS data comparing newly registered listing prices to final contract prices, we estimate that roughly 70% to 80% of Osaka properties sell at or below asking, while only 10% to 15% achieve above-asking sales, and we are fairly confident in these numbers given the transparent transaction reporting in Japan.

Properties most likely to see bidding wars and above-asking sales in Osaka are compact, well-maintained condominiums within a 5-minute walk of major stations like Umeda, Namba, and Tennoji, particularly newer buildings with strong management reserves in high-demand wards such as Kita-ku or Chuo-ku.

By the way, you will find much more detailed data in our property pack covering the real estate market in Osaka.

What kinds of residential properties can I realistically buy in Osaka?

What property types dominate in Osaka right now?

In Osaka's residential market in 2026, the breakdown is roughly 65% to 70% condominiums (called "mansions" in Japan), 20% to 25% detached houses, and 5% to 10% smaller apartment units or townhouses, with condominiums clearly dominating the landscape.

Used condominiums represent the single largest share of the Osaka market, accounting for approximately 55% to 60% of all residential transactions, far outpacing new-build condominiums and detached homes combined.

Used condominiums became so prevalent in Osaka because rising construction costs and high new-build prices have pushed more buyers toward the existing market, where they can find better locations at more accessible price points, especially near major rail stations where resale liquidity is strongest.

If you want to know more, you should read our dedicated analyses:

• How much should you pay for an apartment in Osaka?

Are new builds widely available in Osaka right now?

New-build properties represent only about 20% to 25% of all residential listings currently available in Osaka, as supply remains constrained by rising construction costs and limited developable land in central areas.

As of early 2026, the highest concentration of new-build condominium developments in Osaka can be found in the Umeda/Umekita redevelopment zone in Kita-ku, the Nakanoshima waterfront area, the bay-side Konohana-ku district near the Expo site, and parts of Tennoji-Abeno where urban renewal projects are underway.

Which neighborhoods are improving fastest in Osaka in 2026?

Which areas in Osaka are gentrifying in 2026?

As of early 2026, the Osaka neighborhoods showing the clearest signs of gentrification include Fukushima-ku (spillover from Umeda), Nakazaki-cho in the eastern Umeda area, parts of Tennoji-Abeno, and select pockets near rail stations in Nishinari-ku.

Visible changes indicating gentrification in these Osaka neighborhoods include the arrival of specialty coffee shops and craft bars along Fukushima's back streets, the conversion of old machiya townhouses into boutique retail in Nakazaki-cho, and the opening of new mid-rise residential buildings aimed at young professionals in Tennoji.

Over the past two to three years, gentrifying neighborhoods in Osaka have seen estimated price appreciation of 8% to 15%, with Fukushima-ku in particular recording some of the sharpest gains due to its walking proximity to the Umeda business hub and improving lifestyle amenities.

By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Osaka.

Where are infrastructure projects boosting demand in Osaka in 2026?

As of early 2026, the top areas in Osaka where major infrastructure projects are boosting housing demand include Konohana-ku (near the new Yumeshima Metro station), the Umeda/Umekita redevelopment corridor, and neighborhoods along the future Naniwasuji Line route such as Namba and Shin-Imamiya.

The specific infrastructure projects driving demand in Osaka include the Chuo Line extension to Yumeshima Station (which opened January 19, 2025, providing direct rail access to the Expo site), the massive Umekita Phase 2 urban renewal project, and the Naniwasuji Line (a new north-south rail connection targeting 2031 completion).

The Chuo Line extension is already operational, the Umekita Phase 2 development is completing in stages through 2027, and the Naniwasuji Line is scheduled to open around 2031, giving buyers a clear timeline for each catalyst.

In Osaka, the typical price impact of infrastructure projects is a 5% to 10% uplift upon announcement and an additional 10% to 20% appreciation by completion, with the strongest gains occurring in properties within a 10-minute walk of new or upgraded stations.

What do locals and insiders say the market feels like in Osaka?

Do people think homes are overpriced in Osaka in 2026?

As of early 2026, the general sentiment among locals and market insiders in Osaka is that homes feel "expensive but explainable" in central wards, with most people acknowledging that prices are high but supported by genuine demand and infrastructure investment rather than pure speculation.

When arguing that homes are overpriced, locals in Osaka typically point to the rapid rise in condominium prices (up 9% to 10% year-over-year for used units), stagnant wage growth, and the fact that monthly management fees and reserve funds add significantly to the real cost of ownership.

Those who believe prices are fair in Osaka counter that official land benchmarks show consistent, moderate growth (residential land up 2.3% in the latest Koji Chika), that Osaka remains 60% to 70% cheaper than Tokyo, and that major events like the Expo and the future Integrated Resort justify premium pricing in well-located areas.

Osaka's price-to-income ratio sits around 9 to 10, which is meaningfully lower than Tokyo's ratio of 15 to 16, making Osaka notably more affordable relative to local incomes compared to the capital and roughly in line with other major regional Japanese cities.

What are common buyer mistakes people regret in Osaka right now?

The most frequently cited buyer mistake people regret in Osaka is overpaying for a property marketed as "near Umeda" or "near Namba" without verifying the actual walking time and transfer complexity, since Osaka's value is extremely station-specific and a 12-minute walk versus a 5-minute walk can dramatically affect resale liquidity.

The second most common mistake is ignoring the monthly building costs on condominiums, specifically the management fee and repair reserve fund, which in older Osaka buildings can add 30,000 to 50,000 yen per month and significantly impact long-term affordability and future buyer appeal.

If you want to go deeper, you can check our list of risks and pitfalls people face when buying property in Osaka.

It's because of these mistakes that we have decided to build our pack covering the property buying process in Osaka.

How easy is it for foreigners to buy in Osaka in 2026?

Do foreigners face extra challenges in Osaka right now?

Foreigners face a moderate level of difficulty when buying property in Osaka compared to local buyers, primarily due to operational hurdles like banking, documentation, and language rather than legal ownership restrictions, since Japan allows foreigners to own land and buildings outright.

Foreign buyers in Osaka must be aware that non-residents may need to file a post-acquisition report under Japan's Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (commonly known as the FEFTA notification), typically within 20 days of purchase, though this is a reporting requirement rather than a restriction on ownership.

Practical challenges foreigners commonly encounter in Osaka include finding agents who communicate effectively in English, navigating building management association rules that are written entirely in Japanese, and understanding renovation restrictions that vary by condominium and are often buried in the building bylaws.

We will tell you more in our blog article about foreigner property ownership in Osaka.

Do banks lend to foreigners in Osaka in 2026?

As of early 2026, mortgage financing is available to foreign buyers in Osaka, but availability depends heavily on residency status, with permanent residents having access to most loan products while non-residents face significantly more limited options and stricter requirements.

Foreign buyers with permanent residency in Japan can typically access loan-to-value ratios of 70% to 90% at variable interest rates around 0.7% to 1.0%, while non-residents may be limited to 50% to 70% LTV with higher rates and fewer participating banks.

Banks in Osaka typically require foreign applicants to provide proof of stable income (usually 2 to 3 years of tax records in Japan), a valid residence card or visa documentation, an inkan seal (personal stamp), and sometimes a Japanese guarantor or additional collateral for non-residents.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Japan.

How risky is buying in Osaka compared to other nearby markets?

Is Osaka more volatile than nearby places in 2026?

As of early 2026, Osaka's residential property market shows moderate volatility compared to nearby markets, sitting between the steadier Tokyo core (which has deeper liquidity) and more tourism-dependent resort areas like Kyoto's central districts or Niseko, which can swing more dramatically with visitor flows.

Over the past decade, Osaka experienced a relatively steady recovery from the post-bubble lows, with residential land prices rising consistently since around 2013, unlike some regional cities that saw sharper drops during the 2008 global financial crisis and slower rebounds afterward.

If you want to go into more details, we also have a blog article detailing the updated housing prices in Osaka.

Is Osaka resilient during downturns historically?

Osaka has shown moderate historical resilience during economic downturns, with central areas near major rail hubs recovering faster than suburban or car-dependent neighborhoods, though the city did experience significant declines during Japan's post-bubble period in the 1990s.

During the 2008 global financial crisis, Osaka residential prices dropped approximately 5% to 10% from their mini-bubble peak, with recovery taking roughly 5 to 7 years to return to pre-crisis levels, which was faster than many rural areas but slower than Tokyo's prime core.

The property types and neighborhoods in Osaka that have historically held value best during downturns are compact condominiums within walking distance of major Osaka Metro and JR stations, particularly in Kita-ku, Chuo-ku, and Tennoji-Abeno, where strong commuter demand provides a floor under prices.

How strong is rental demand behind the scenes in Osaka in 2026?

Is long-term rental demand growing in Osaka in 2026?

As of early 2026, long-term rental demand in Osaka is growing steadily, supported by net positive migration into the city, a high renter share (around 54% of Osaka City households rent), and rising property prices pushing more people toward renting rather than buying.

The tenant demographics driving long-term rental demand in Osaka include young professionals working in the Umeda and Honmachi business districts, university students attending institutions like Osaka University and Kindai University, and a growing number of foreign workers and expats attracted by the city's international business expansion.

The neighborhoods in Osaka with the strongest long-term rental demand right now are Kita-ku (near Umeda), Chuo-ku (including Shinsaibashi and Honmachi), Nishi-ku, and Fukushima-ku, where proximity to jobs, nightlife, and transport hubs keeps vacancy rates low and rents firm.

You might want to check our latest analysis about rental yields in Osaka.

Is short-term rental demand growing in Osaka in 2026?

Short-term rental operations in Osaka are subject to Japan's minpaku (home-sharing) law, which requires registration and compliance with local regulations, and many condominium buildings in Osaka prohibit short-term rentals entirely through their management association bylaws, making regulatory compliance a real operational constraint.

As of early 2026, short-term rental demand in Osaka is strong and growing, fueled by the Expo 2025 visitor surge, the recovery of international tourism, and the city's position as a gateway to Kansai attractions like Kyoto and Nara.

The current estimated average occupancy rate for properly licensed short-term rentals in Osaka is around 65% to 70%, with prime tourist areas like Namba and Shinsaibashi achieving higher rates during peak seasons.

The guest demographics driving short-term rental demand in Osaka are predominantly international leisure tourists (especially from Asia and increasingly from Western countries), domestic travelers visiting the Expo, and business travelers attending conferences and trade events in the city.

By the way, we also have a blog article detailing whether owning an Airbnb rental is profitable in Osaka.

What are the realistic short-term and long-term projections for Osaka in 2026?

What's the 12-month outlook for demand in Osaka in 2026?

As of early 2026, the 12-month demand outlook for residential property in Osaka is stable to moderately positive, with well-located condominiums expected to see continued buyer interest while less desirable stock may sit longer on the market.

The key factors most likely to influence demand in Osaka over the next 12 months are Bank of Japan interest rate decisions (with the policy rate currently at 0.75%), the economic spillover from Expo 2025, and the pace of wage growth relative to property price increases.

For Osaka in 2026, forecasters project modest price appreciation of 2% to 5% for prime central properties, with flatter or mixed results in suburban and less transit-connected areas, reflecting a market that rewards location quality more than ever.

By the way, we also have an update regarding price forecasts in Japan.

What's the 3 to 5 year outlook for housing in Osaka in 2026?

As of early 2026, the 3 to 5 year outlook for housing prices and demand in Osaka is moderately positive, with analysts expecting continued appreciation in prime rail-connected areas and redevelopment corridors, while peripheral locations may see flatter or declining values.

Major development projects expected to shape Osaka over the next 3 to 5 years include the Naniwasuji Line (opening around 2031), the Integrated Resort project targeted for 2030, continued buildout of the Umekita district, and ongoing urban renewal in the bay area following the Expo.

The single biggest uncertainty that could alter the 3 to 5 year outlook for Osaka is the trajectory of Bank of Japan interest rates, since a faster-than-expected rise in borrowing costs could compress buyer affordability and dampen price growth across the market.

Are demographics or other trends pushing prices up in Osaka in 2026?

As of early 2026, demographic trends are having a moderately positive impact on Osaka housing prices, with net migration into the city (especially among young adults and foreign workers) offsetting Japan's overall population decline and supporting demand in central wards.

The specific demographic shifts most affecting prices in Osaka are the continued concentration of young professionals moving from smaller Kansai cities to central Osaka for jobs, a "social increase" in population (more people moving in than leaving despite natural decline), and a growing foreign resident community now representing a meaningful share of net migration.

Non-demographic trends also pushing prices in Osaka include the weak yen attracting foreign investment, the rise of remote work allowing some buyers to prioritize lifestyle over commute, and investor interest driven by Osaka's higher rental yields compared to Tokyo (around 4.3% versus 3.5%).

These demographic and trend-driven price pressures are expected to continue in Osaka for at least the next 3 to 5 years, assuming the Expo, IR project, and infrastructure investments proceed as planned, though any sharp economic shock could accelerate a correction.

What scenario would cause a downturn in Osaka in 2026?

As of early 2026, the most likely scenario that could trigger a housing downturn in Osaka is a combination of faster-than-expected interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and a sharp cooling of tourism or event-driven demand, which together would squeeze buyer affordability and investor sentiment.

Early warning signs that such a downturn is beginning in Osaka would include a noticeable increase in days-on-market for central condominiums, widening gaps between asking and contract prices, rising inventory levels without matching transaction growth, and a slowdown in foreign buyer activity.

Based on historical patterns, a potential downturn in Osaka could realistically result in price declines of 10% to 20% in vulnerable submarkets (overpriced new builds, poorly connected locations) over 2 to 3 years, while prime station-adjacent properties would likely see more modest corrections of 5% to 10%.

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Osaka, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can ... and we don't throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.