Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Philippines Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Manila's property market is included in our pack
The Manila property market in 2026 is showing steady growth, though not all segments are moving at the same pace.
This blog post covers the current housing prices in Manila, along with forecasts for 2026, 5 years, and 10 years ahead, and we constantly update it to keep the data fresh.
Whether you're looking to buy, sell, or invest, understanding where Manila property prices are heading can help you make smarter decisions.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Manila.
Insights
- Manila condo vacancy hit 26% in late 2025, the highest in years, meaning buyers have significant negotiating power on resale units right now.
- Houses in Metro Manila carry a median price of around 7.4 million pesos, roughly 48% higher than the national median, reflecting land scarcity in the capital region.
- The BSP policy rate dropped to 4.5% in December 2025, bringing mortgage costs to their lowest since 2022 and improving monthly affordability for mid-market buyers.
- Quezon City holds about 7,000 unsold condo units, the largest inventory in Metro Manila, making it a buyer's market for those willing to negotiate.
- BGC and Rockwell command the highest Manila prices at 230,000 to 600,000 pesos per square meter, while Caloocan and Valenzuela start around 70,000 to 130,000 pesos per square meter.
- Metro Manila property prices grew about 2.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025 according to BSP data, outpacing the national average of 1.9%.
- The Metro Manila Subway's full completion has been pushed to 2032, so buyers should be cautious about paying "transit premiums" on properties along the route today.
- Secondary market rental yields in Manila average 4.8%, compared to 4.1% in the primary market, because resale units were purchased at lower prices years ago.
- Mid-market condos priced between 2.5 million and 7 million pesos represent most of Manila's unsold inventory, signaling oversupply specifically in this segment.
What are the current property price trends in Manila as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Manila as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the average property price in Manila falls between 9 million and 14 million pesos for a typical condo, roughly 150,000 to 235,000 USD or 140,000 to 220,000 EUR, though houses and townhouses can push well above 20 million pesos depending on the location.
When you look at the price per square meter, Manila properties in 2026 average around 180,000 to 220,000 pesos per sqm for most residential types, which translates to about 3,000 to 3,700 USD or 2,800 to 3,500 EUR per sqm, with prime areas like BGC and Makati reaching 300,000 pesos per sqm or more.
The realistic price range that covers roughly 80% of property purchases in Manila in 2026 runs from about 3 million to 25 million pesos (50,000 to 420,000 USD or 47,000 to 395,000 EUR), spanning studios in more affordable cities like Caloocan up to family-sized townhouses in established villages.
How much have property prices increased in Manila over the past 12 months?
Property prices in Manila increased by approximately 4% to 6% in nominal terms over the past 12 months, though luxury condos in some central business districts actually saw slight declines while mid-market and house segments showed stronger gains.
Across different property types in Manila, price increases over the past year ranged from about 2% to 8%, with townhouses and houses in land-constrained areas at the higher end and investor-heavy condo segments closer to flat or even slightly negative in real terms.
The single most significant factor behind Manila's price movement over the past 12 months was the BSP's series of interest rate cuts, which brought the policy rate down to 4.5% and made mortgages more affordable for end-user buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Manila as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Manila are Vertis North in Quezon City, Arca South in Taguig, and the Kapitolyo-Ortigas East corridor in Pasig, all benefiting from strong end-user demand and improving infrastructure connectivity.
These three neighborhoods in Manila are seeing annual price growth of roughly 8% to 12%, with Vertis North leading due to its mixed-use township development, Arca South attracting buyers seeking value versus fully-priced BGC, and Kapitolyo-Ortigas East drawing families who want access to business districts without paying peak CBD prices.
The main demand driver behind these fast-growing Manila neighborhoods is the shift toward practical, livable locations where buyers can get more space for their money while still enjoying reasonable commute times to major employment centers.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Manila.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in the Philippines. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Manila as of 2026?
As of early 2026, houses in established villages lead Manila's appreciation ranking, followed by townhouses, then mid-market condos, with luxury condos in oversupplied areas showing the slowest growth due to elevated inventory and more negotiable pricing.
Houses in land-scarce Manila neighborhoods are appreciating at roughly 7% to 10% annually, driven by the simple fact that you cannot build more land, and families are willing to pay a premium for space and privacy they cannot find in high-rise developments.
This property type is outperforming in Manila because land values in core Metro Manila locations keep rising even when building costs stay flat, and the pool of buyers seeking horizontal living with private outdoor space continues to grow as remote work arrangements become more common.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much do properties cost in Manila?
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Manila?
- How much should you pay for a condo in Manila?
- How much should you pay for a townhouse in Manila?
- How much should you pay for a studio in Manila?
What is driving property prices up or down in Manila as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three factors driving Manila property prices are lower borrowing costs following BSP rate cuts, persistent end-user demand supported by a large housing backlog, and developer promotions that are helping move inventory in the mid-market segment.
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure on Manila property prices right now is mortgage affordability, because the 4.5% policy rate translates into lower monthly payments that bring more buyers into the market, especially first-time purchasers who previously could not qualify.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Manila here.
Get fresh and reliable information about the market in Manila
Don't base significant investment decisions on outdated data. Get updated and accurate information with our guide.
What is the property price forecast for Manila in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Manila in 2026?
As of early 2026, Manila property prices are expected to increase by approximately 4% to 7% over the full calendar year, with mid-market segments likely to outperform luxury condos that still face inventory pressure.
Forecasts from different analysts for Manila property price growth in 2026 range from a conservative 2% to an optimistic 8%, depending on how quickly condo oversupply gets absorbed and whether infrastructure projects stay on schedule.
The main assumption underlying most price increase forecasts for Manila is that the Philippine economy will grow around 5% to 6% in 2026, keeping employment stable and supporting household incomes that drive housing demand.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Manila.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Manila in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Manila are Vertis North and Araneta City in Quezon City, Bridgetowne and Ortigas East in Pasig, and Arca South in Taguig, all benefiting from mixed-use development and improving transit access.
These top Manila neighborhoods are projected to see price growth of 8% to 12% in 2026, outpacing the metro-wide average because they offer newer inventory, township amenities, and prices that still feel attainable compared to fully mature CBDs.
The primary catalyst driving expected growth in these Manila neighborhoods is the combination of corporate relocations to secondary business districts and young families seeking affordable alternatives to Makati and BGC without sacrificing lifestyle conveniences.
One emerging neighborhood in Manila that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is the Alabang-Filinvest City corridor in Muntinlupa, where family demand for houses and townhouses remains strong and new commercial developments are adding appeal.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Manila.
What property types will appreciate the most in Manila in 2026?
As of early 2026, houses in established villages and townhouses are expected to appreciate the most in Manila, followed by mid-market condos, while luxury condos will likely see the slowest growth due to ongoing inventory absorption challenges.
Houses in land-constrained Manila locations are projected to appreciate by 7% to 10% in 2026, benefiting from the scarcity of developable land and sustained demand from families upgrading from smaller units.
The main demand trend driving appreciation for houses in Manila is the post-pandemic preference for more living space and private outdoor areas, which high-rise condos simply cannot offer regardless of their amenities.
The property type expected to underperform in Manila in 2026 is luxury condos in oversupplied submarkets like parts of the Bay Area and some Quezon City corridors, where developers must offer discounts and flexible payment terms to move inventory.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in the Philippines versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Manila in 2026?
As of early 2026, the BSP's 4.5% policy rate is having a positive effect on Manila property prices by making monthly mortgage payments more affordable, which is helping mid-market buyers who depend on financing enter the market with more confidence.
The current benchmark rate is 4.5% and mortgage rates in Manila typically run 7% to 9% for bank loans, with analysts expecting rates to stay flat or see one more small cut in early 2026 before stabilizing for the rest of the year.
A 1% change in interest rates in Manila typically affects monthly mortgage payments by about 8% to 10%, which can translate to a shift of roughly 5% to 8% in effective buying power, meaning rate cuts directly expand the pool of qualified buyers.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in The Philippines.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Manila in 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three biggest risks for Manila property prices are condo oversupply that could take years to absorb, infrastructure project delays that disappoint buyers who paid "transit premiums" early, and external economic shocks that could weaken remittance flows and corporate expansion.
The single risk with the highest probability of materializing in Manila is continued condo oversupply in the affordable-to-mid-market segment, where roughly 30,000 units remain unsold across Metro Manila and new completions keep arriving, putting downward pressure on both prices and rents in affected corridors.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Manila.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Manila in 2026?
As of early 2026, buying a rental property in Manila can be a good decision if you focus on locations with genuine tenant demand and avoid investor-crowded condo stacks where high vacancy rates are compressing yields.
The strongest argument in favor of buying now is that negotiating power is on the buyer's side due to elevated inventory, meaning you can secure discounts of 7% to 12% below listing prices and lock in financing at historically low rates before conditions tighten.
The strongest argument for waiting is that condo vacancy in Metro Manila remains around 26%, which could pressure rents further in 2026 and make it harder to achieve target yields until oversupply is absorbed over the next two to three years.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Manila.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Manila.
Buying real estate in Manila can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Manila?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Manila as of 2026?
As of early 2026, Manila property prices are expected to grow by roughly 30% to 50% cumulatively over the next five years, assuming the Philippine economy maintains steady growth and infrastructure projects deliver improved connectivity.
Five-year forecasts for Manila range from a conservative scenario of about 25% total growth if oversupply lingers, to an optimistic scenario of 55% or more if demand absorbs current inventory faster than expected and new transit lines open on schedule.
The projected average annual appreciation rate for Manila property over the next five years is approximately 5.5% to 8.5% per year, with houses and townhouses likely at the higher end and condos closer to the lower end until vacancy normalizes.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on for their 5-year Manila property predictions is that GDP growth will average 5% to 6% annually, supporting job creation and household income growth that ultimately translates into housing demand.
Which areas in Manila will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The top three areas in Manila expected to have the best price growth over the next five years are Quezon City's northern growth belt (Vertis North to North Triangle), Pasig's eastern expansion corridor (Ortigas East to Bridgetowne), and Taguig's next-wave developments (Arca South and surrounding nodes).
These top-performing Manila areas are projected to see 5-year cumulative price growth of 40% to 60%, outpacing the metro-wide average because they combine improving infrastructure access with pricing that still leaves room for appreciation.
This longer-term outlook largely aligns with our 2026 forecast, though the gap between outperformers and laggards widens over five years because infrastructure benefits compound and oversupplied areas take longer to recover.
The currently undervalued Manila area with the best potential for outperformance over five years is the Alabang-Filinvest City corridor, where house and townhouse demand remains strong and commercial expansion is adding new employment anchors.
What property type will give the best return in Manila over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, townhouses in family-oriented Manila neighborhoods are expected to give the best total return over five years, combining solid appreciation with stable rental demand from tenants who need more space than a condo can offer.
Townhouses in well-located Manila areas are projected to deliver a 5-year total return of 50% to 70% when you combine price appreciation of roughly 35% to 50% with cumulative rental income that adds another 15% to 20% over the period.
The main structural trend favoring townhouses in Manila over the next five years is the growing preference for horizontal living among young families, combined with limited new townhouse supply because developers find high-rise condos easier to scale.
For buyers seeking a balance of return and lower risk over five years in Manila, mid-market condos in established business districts offer a more liquid option with steady rental demand, even if appreciation potential is more modest than townhouses.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Manila over 5 years?
The top three major infrastructure projects expected to impact Manila property prices over the next five years are the Metro Manila Subway (partial operations targeting 2028 with full completion by 2032), the North-South Commuter Railway connecting Clark to Calamba, and various expressway extensions linking Metro Manila to surrounding provinces.
Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Manila typically command a price premium of 10% to 20% compared to similar properties farther from transit access, though this premium usually materializes gradually as stations actually open rather than all at once during construction.
The specific Manila neighborhoods that will benefit most from these infrastructure developments are Quezon City areas along the subway alignment (North Avenue, Quezon Avenue), Pasig near future NSCR stations, and Valenzuela where the subway depot and early stations are located.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Manila in 5 years?
Metro Manila's population is projected to grow at roughly 1% to 1.5% annually over the next five years, adding steady baseline demand for housing that supports property values even during periods when investment demand cools.
The demographic shift with the strongest influence on Manila property demand will be the rise of young professionals and newly formed households in their late 20s to early 40s, who are entering their prime home-buying years and seeking accessible locations near employment centers.
Migration patterns are expected to support Manila property values over five years as the capital region continues attracting workers from provinces, while overseas Filipino remittances provide down payment support for families purchasing homes in Metro Manila.
Townhouses and mid-sized condos in suburban nodes with good connectivity will benefit most from these demographic trends in Manila, as growing families seek more space than studio or one-bedroom units can provide without moving completely outside the metro.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in the Philippines compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Manila?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Manila as of 2026?
As of early 2026, Manila property prices are expected to grow by roughly 60% to 110% cumulatively over the next 10 years, with the wide range reflecting uncertainty about economic growth, infrastructure delivery, and how effectively oversupply gets absorbed.
Ten-year forecasts for Manila range from a conservative scenario of about 50% total growth if the economy underperforms, to an optimistic scenario of 120% or more if the Philippines sustains strong GDP growth and major transit projects like the subway operate as planned.
The projected average annual appreciation rate for Manila property over the next 10 years is approximately 4.8% to 7.5% per year, which would roughly double property values in peso terms by 2036 under the base case scenario.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Manila is whether infrastructure projects will actually be completed on announced timelines, since delays can postpone the connectivity gains that justify higher valuations in emerging corridors.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Manila?
The top three long-term economic factors that will shape Manila property prices over the next decade are sustained GDP and wage growth that expands the pool of qualified buyers, infrastructure investment that improves connectivity and unlocks new growth corridors, and the balance between housing supply and structural demand driven by the country's housing backlog.
The single long-term economic factor with the most positive impact on Manila property values will be continued productivity and income growth, because rising wages directly translate into higher purchasing power that supports both prices and rents across all property segments.
The single long-term economic factor that poses the greatest structural risk to Manila property values is a prolonged period of oversupply in the condo market, which could keep vacancy elevated for years and compress both capital appreciation and rental yields in affected submarkets.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Manila.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Manila, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) RPPI | The Philippine central bank's official housing price index publication. | We used it as the backbone for official price growth by property type and region. We translated growth rates into practical Manila takeaways. |
| JLL Manila Residential Report | JLL is a global research consultancy with transparent market reporting. | We used it to anchor current price levels in Manila's condo market. We cross-checked direction against BSP data and other local research. |
| Colliers Philippines | A major international real estate advisory firm with consistent quarterly coverage. | We used it to explain what's selling now and why. We relied on their segment and neighborhood analysis for demand patterns. |
| Leechiu Property Consultants | A leading local advisory frequently cited in Philippine market coverage. | We used it to triangulate supply-demand conditions and rental yields. We paired it with BSP data to distinguish activity from price growth. |
| BusinessWorld | A major national business outlet that routinely cites primary BSP releases. | We used it to anchor the current interest rate setting. We tied rate direction to affordability and buyer demand in Manila. |
| Reuters | A highly vetted wire service that quotes policymakers directly. | We used it to ground the January 2026 rate and inflation backdrop. We connected macro data to housing demand and financing behavior. |
| Asian Development Bank | A leading international organization with standardized forecasting. | We used it for a credible 2026 growth baseline. We cross-checked against other outlooks to avoid relying on a single forecast. |
| World Bank Philippines | A top-tier international institution with regular macro monitoring. | We used it to frame broader economic risks and tailwinds. We translated macro themes into implications for Manila buyers and sellers. |
| IMF Philippines | The global reference for country macro surveillance and forecasts. | We used it to triangulate growth and inflation expectations. We converted macro assumptions into property market implications. |
| Philstar (Pag-IBIG coverage) | Cites Pag-IBIG Fund's announced policy, a major mass-market mortgage channel. | We used it to explain the floor of mortgage affordability for first-time buyers. We connected it to demand in mid-market condos. |
| Presidential Communications Office | Official government channel describing infrastructure projects and priorities. | We used it to explain why some corridors get a transit premium. We combined it with market evidence on where developers launch. |
| ABS-CBN News | A major national newsroom that attributes timelines to official briefings. | We used it to keep infrastructure expectations realistic. We treated timelines as a risk input to our forecasts. |
| DHSUD Housing Backlog | The official housing department's custodian of backlog figures. | We used it to explain why end-user demand stays strong. We kept it high-level to avoid overfitting national backlog to Manila micro-markets. |
| Global Property Guide | An independent research platform tracking housing markets worldwide. | We used it as a cross-reference for long-term price trends. We validated their data against BSP and brokerage reports. |
| Lamudi Philippines | A major property listing platform showing real asking prices. | We used it to check current listing price ranges by neighborhood. We compared asking prices to transacted values from other sources. |
| Philippine Statistics Authority | The official government agency for population and economic statistics. | We used it for demographic projections that underpin housing demand. We connected population growth to property value support. |
| Trading Economics | A data aggregator that tracks central bank rates globally. | We used it to verify BSP rate history and direction. We confirmed the current policy rate against primary BSP sources. |
| Inquirer Business | A major Philippine publication with detailed economic and property coverage. | We used it for analyst commentary on rate outlook. We incorporated their reporting on market sentiment and forecasts. |
Get the full checklist for your due diligence in Manila
Don't repeat the same mistakes others have made before you. Make sure everything is in order before signing your sales contract.
If you want to go deeper, you can read the following: