Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Philippines Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Manila's property market is included in our pack
Wondering whether January 2026 is the right time to buy property in Manila? You're not alone, and the answer depends on hard data, not just gut feelings.
In this article, we break down the current housing prices in Manila, supply and demand signals, and what the numbers actually say about where the market is headed.
We constantly update this blog post to reflect the latest market conditions, so you always have fresh information at your fingertips.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Manila.
So, is now a good time?
As of January 2026, our verdict for Manila is "rather yes" for patient, selective buyers who can negotiate hard, but "rather no" for short-term speculators expecting quick flips.
The strongest signal is that Manila's condo vacancy rate sits around 25%, with developers offering aggressive discounts and promos, which means buyers have real negotiating power right now.
Another key signal is that property price growth has slowed sharply, with Metro Manila prices rising just 2.3% year-over-year and actually dipping 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, so you're not buying into a runaway market.
Additional signals include interest rate cuts from the central bank improving affordability, stretched price-to-income ratios around 9 to 14 times annual household income, and a future slowdown in new condo deliveries that could stabilize prices.
The best strategies involve targeting well-located condos with developer discounts for long-term rental income, or scarce townhouses and houses in established neighborhoods like Makati, BGC, or Ortigas for capital preservation.
Please note this is not financial or investment advice, we don't know your personal situation, and you should always do your own research before making any property purchase decision.
Is it smart to buy now in Manila, or should I wait as of 2026?
Do real estate prices look too high in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, Manila property prices appear stretched relative to local incomes but not in a fresh acceleration phase, with official data showing year-over-year growth cooling to around 2.3% in the National Capital Region while quarter-over-quarter prices actually dipped by 0.8%.
One clear on-the-ground signal that supports this is the widespread use of developer promos and discounts on ready-for-occupancy units, which you typically see when sellers are struggling to move inventory at listed prices.
Another telling sign is the Metro Manila condo vacancy rate hovering around 25% as of Q3 2025, with some areas like the Bay Area exceeding 50% vacancy, which puts downward pressure on what sellers can realistically ask for.
You can also read our latest update regarding the housing prices in Manila.
Does a property price drop look likely in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the likelihood of a broad property price crash in Manila looks low, but a selective softening with discounts and longer selling times in oversupplied condo submarkets looks medium-to-high.
The plausible price change range for Manila over the next 12 months is roughly flat to down 5% in oversupplied condo pockets, while scarce family homes in established areas could hold steady or edge up 2 to 4%.
The single most important macro factor that could increase the odds of a price drop in Manila is a reversal in interest rate direction, because if inflation spikes and the central bank has to raise rates again, mortgage costs would jump and buyer demand would weaken.
However, this factor looks unlikely in the near term since the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut rates into late 2025 and signaled the easing cycle was continuing, which supports housing demand rather than threatening it.
Finally, please note that we cover the price trends for next year in our pack about the property market in Manila.
Could property prices jump again in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the likelihood of a broad renewed price surge in Manila is low overall, but medium in specific scarcity-driven pockets like prime Makati, Rockwell, and BGC where demand remains strong.
The plausible upside price change range for Manila over the next 12 months is around 3 to 8% in the most resilient prime submarkets, while the broader Metro Manila condo market is more likely to stay flat or see modest gains of 1 to 3%.
The single biggest demand-side trigger that could drive Manila property prices to jump again is continued interest rate cuts combined with strong overseas Filipino worker remittance flows, because lower mortgage costs and steady dollar inflows directly boost buying power for local households.
Please also note that we regularly publish and update real estate price forecasts for Manila here.
Are we in a buyer or a seller market in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, Manila's residential property market leans buyer-friendly overall, especially for condominiums where high vacancy and aggressive developer promos give purchasers real negotiating leverage.
While Manila doesn't publish a single official "months of inventory" figure, the condo vacancy rate around 25% and expected peak near 26.5% by late 2025 strongly suggests there's more than enough supply on the market, which typically means buyers can take their time and push for better terms.
The heavy use of price reductions, extended payment terms, and freebies by developers is a clear proxy for seller desperation, and this pattern is especially pronounced in oversupplied areas like the Bay Area where vacancy exceeds 50%, while prime locations like Makati CBD and BGC remain more seller-resilient.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in the Philippines. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Are homes overpriced, or fairly priced in Manila as of 2026?
Are homes overpriced versus rents or versus incomes in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, Manila homes look moderately overpriced when comparing purchase costs to local incomes, though the picture is more balanced when comparing to rents in prime rental areas.
The price-to-rent ratio in Manila's prime condo market translates to a gross rental yield of around 3.4%, which means you'd need roughly 29 years of rent to equal the purchase price, and that's on the expensive side compared to global benchmarks where 15 to 20 years is considered more balanced.
The price-to-income multiple in Manila is particularly stretched, with the median NCR condo price around PHP 4.7 million sitting at roughly 9 times the average annual family income of about PHP 514,000, and houses at around 14 times income, well above the globally accepted affordability threshold of 3 to 5 times.
Finally please note that you will have all the indicators you need in our property pack covering the real estate market in Manila.
Are home prices above the long-term average in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, Manila property prices sit materially above the 2019 baseline according to the BSP's price index, but the growth rate has slowed sharply enough that the market looks more like a high-price plateau than an overheating bubble.
The recent 12-month price change in Manila's NCR region came in around 2.3% year-over-year, which is well below the double-digit growth rates seen in some earlier boom years and suggests the market is normalizing rather than accelerating.
When adjusting for inflation, Manila property prices are still elevated versus their prior cycle levels, but the real gains have compressed as inflation ate into nominal price growth, meaning buyers today are paying a premium but not necessarily at a historic peak in purchasing power terms.
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What local changes could move prices in Manila as of 2026?
Are big infrastructure projects coming to Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the Metro Manila Subway Phase 1 is the single biggest infrastructure project expected to impact Manila property prices, with early estimates suggesting areas near future stations could see price premiums of 10 to 20% once the line becomes operational.
The timeline for the Metro Manila Subway involves a long construction horizon extending into the late 2020s, while the North-South Commuter Railway has segments targeting partial completion in 2026, meaning buyers should be cautious about paying future-rail prices today for benefits that remain years away.
For the latest updates on the local projects, you can read our property market analysis about Manila here.
Are zoning or building rules changing in Manila as of 2026?
There is no single verified Manila-wide zoning overhaul in the pipeline as of January 2026, though local government units continue to adjust density allowances and building height limits on a case-by-case basis.
As of January 2026, the net effect of likely zoning or building rule changes on Manila property prices is indirect but meaningful: the expected sharp slowdown in new condo completions from 2026 to 2028 compared to the 2017 to 2019 boom means tighter future supply, which could stabilize or lift prices even without explicit rule changes.
If there were a major upzoning or density reform, the areas most likely to be affected would be transit-adjacent corridors in Quezon City, parts of Pasig along the future subway route, and secondary business districts seeking to attract more development.
Are foreign-buyer or mortgage rules changing in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, foreign-buyer and mortgage rules in Manila remain structurally stable, with foreigners still restricted from owning land but permitted to buy condo units subject to the 40% foreign ownership cap per building, and no major rule changes appear imminent that would significantly shift prices.
On the foreign-buyer side, there's ongoing discussion about simplifying registration processes and potentially adjusting the foreign ownership quota enforcement, but no concrete legislative changes have been enacted that would open or restrict the market further.
On the mortgage side, the most relevant change is the direction of interest rates rather than new LTV limits or stress tests, with the BSP's rate cuts into late 2025 making borrowing cheaper and supporting buyer demand, while banks continue to apply their own credit standards as tracked by the BSP's quarterly loan officers survey.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in The Philippines.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in the Philippines versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
Will it be easy to find tenants in Manila as of 2026?
Is the renter pool growing faster than new supply in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the balance between renter demand and new rental supply in Manila is uneven: the prime Makati-BGC rental core shows strong tenant demand outpacing limited new stock, while the broader Metro Manila condo market still faces oversupply from years of heavy construction.
The clearest signal of renter demand in Manila comes from steady overseas Filipino worker remittances supporting household formation and the return of expatriate and corporate tenants to central business districts, which keeps premium rental areas competitive.
On the supply side, Metro Manila saw heavy condo completions in recent years pushing vacancy to around 25%, but Colliers expects annual deliveries to drop sharply from roughly 13,000 units per year during 2017 to 2019 down to about 3,600 units per year from 2026 to 2028, which should gradually rebalance the rental market.
Are days-on-market for rentals falling in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, days-on-market for rentals in Manila varies dramatically by location: prime areas like Makati CBD and BGC with around 6 to 7% vacancy typically see units leased within weeks, while oversupplied submarkets with 25% or higher vacancy often take multiple months to find tenants.
The difference in leasing speed between Manila's best areas and weaker pockets can be substantial, with well-located two-bedroom units in Rockwell or Salcedo Village often leasing in 2 to 4 weeks, while similar units in the Bay Area might sit vacant for 3 to 6 months or require significant rent cuts.
One common reason days-on-market falls in Manila's prime districts is the structural undersupply of quality rental stock near major office clusters, combined with seasonal spikes when multinational companies relocate employees at the start of the year or after mid-year budget cycles.
Are vacancies dropping in the best areas of Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, vacancy in Manila's best-performing rental areas like Makati CBD, Rockwell Center, and BGC in Taguig is holding steady at around 6 to 7% and showing signs of tightening as corporate tenant demand recovers, while the broader Metro Manila condo market remains stuck near 25% vacancy.
The contrast is stark: JLL's prime Manila residential sample shows vacancy around 6.6% with rising rents, whereas Colliers reports the overall Metro Manila condo vacancy could peak near 26.5%, highlighting how location dramatically affects landlord outcomes.
One practical sign that Manila's best areas are tightening first is that landlords in Makati Legazpi Village and BGC are starting to reduce or eliminate rent-free periods and other concessions that were common during 2023 and 2024, signaling they have more leverage in negotiations now.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current rent levels in Manila.
Buying real estate in Manila can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Am I buying into a tightening market in Manila as of 2026?
Is for-sale inventory shrinking in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, for-sale inventory in Manila's condo market is not shrinking yet, with high vacancy around 25% and heavy developer promos suggesting plenty of available stock, though future completions are expected to slow dramatically after 2025.
While Manila doesn't publish a single months-of-supply figure, the combination of elevated vacancy and aggressive RFO discounts indicates supply currently exceeds immediate buyer demand, which is the opposite of a tight market where inventory disappears quickly.
For houses and townhouses in established Manila neighborhoods, however, inventory can feel genuinely tight because there simply isn't much buildable land left in areas like New Manila, San Juan, or parts of Quezon City, creating natural scarcity that doesn't show up in condo-focused statistics.
Are homes selling faster in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, there is no broad evidence that homes in Manila are selling faster, with the condo market in particular showing extended selling times due to oversupply and buyer caution, though well-priced family homes in scarce neighborhoods can still move quickly.
Year-over-year, selling times for Manila condos have likely lengthened rather than shortened, given that vacancy climbed toward its expected 2025 peak and developers had to offer more aggressive promos to close sales, both of which indicate buyers are taking their time.
Are new listings slowing down in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, we don't have a clean "new listings" data series for Manila, but the closest verifiable proxies point to a cooling pipeline: building permits have moderated and Colliers expects annual condo completions to drop sharply from around 13,000 units per year to about 3,600 per year from 2026 to 2028.
Seasonally, Manila's property market tends to see more activity in the first quarter and around mid-year when bonuses arrive, but current supply levels are more a function of the heavy 2019 to 2024 construction wave winding down rather than seasonal patterns.
The most plausible reason new supply is slowing is that developers pulled back on launches after seeing vacancy climb and absorption slow, which is a rational response to oversupply that should help stabilize prices over the medium term.
Is new construction failing to keep up in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, new condo construction in Manila has actually exceeded household demand in recent years, creating the current oversupply situation, though for well-located family housing the opposite is true because land scarcity limits what can be built.
The recent trend shows a shift from boom to cooldown: after heavy deliveries of around 13,000 condo units annually during 2017 to 2019, Colliers expects only about 3,600 units per year from 2026 to 2028, meaning the market is working off its excess inventory rather than adding more.
For family homes and townhouses, the biggest bottleneck limiting new construction in Manila is simply the lack of available land in established neighborhoods, which means prices in those segments are supported by genuine scarcity rather than development cycles.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in the Philippines compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
Will it be easy to sell later in Manila as of 2026?
Is resale liquidity strong enough in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, resale liquidity in Manila is adequate for standard, well-located properties but weaker for investor-heavy condo towers where many similar units compete with each other and with developer promos.
While Manila lacks a single official median days-on-market statistic, reasonably priced resale condos in prime areas like Makati or BGC can sell within 2 to 4 months, which is acceptable liquidity, whereas units in oversupplied buildings may take 6 months or longer.
The property characteristic that most improves resale liquidity in Manila is location near major employment centers or transport nodes, because buyer pools are deepest for units within walking distance of Ayala Avenue, BGC high streets, or Ortigas Center offices.
Is selling time getting longer in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, selling time in Manila has likely lengthened compared to the 2021 to 2022 period when pent-up demand drove faster transactions, as buyers now have more choices and less urgency given the high condo vacancy environment.
Current median days-on-market in Manila probably ranges from around 60 to 90 days for well-priced units in prime locations to 120 to 180 days or more for overpriced units or those in oversupplied submarkets like parts of the Bay Area.
One clear reason selling time can lengthen in Manila is affordability pressure: with price-to-income ratios around 9 to 14 times annual household income, many potential buyers need longer to save larger down payments or secure financing, which slows the transaction process.
Is it realistic to exit with profit in Manila as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the likelihood of exiting with profit in Manila is medium for patient buyers who hold for 5 years or more and buy selectively, but low for short-term speculators expecting quick capital gains given the current slow-growth environment.
The estimated minimum holding period in Manila that most often makes exiting with profit realistic is around 5 to 7 years, which allows time for price appreciation to exceed transaction costs and for any oversupply to be absorbed by the market.
Total round-trip transaction costs in Manila, including transfer taxes, documentary stamps, agent fees, and capital gains tax, typically run around 10 to 15% of the property value, which translates to roughly PHP 500,000 to 700,000 on a PHP 5 million condo (about USD 9,000 to 12,500 or EUR 8,500 to 11,500).
The single factor that most increases profit odds in Manila is buying at a genuine discount, whether through developer RFO promos, motivated resellers, or foreclosed properties, because starting below market value gives you a buffer against flat or slow price growth.
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What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Manila, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can, and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why It's Authoritative | How We Used It |
|---|---|---|
| Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas RPPI Report | Official central bank property price index built from bank housing loan appraisals. | We used it as our anchor for price direction and year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter changes in Metro Manila. We also extracted median price data for affordability calculations. |
| BSP Overnight RRP Facility | Official reference for the policy rate that drives mortgage rate direction. | We used it to explain why mortgage rates were easing into January 2026. We translated rate direction into implications for monthly payments and buyer demand. |
| BSP Senior Bank Loan Officers Survey | Official survey capturing whether banks are tightening or loosening credit standards. | We used it to gauge whether housing loans are getting easier or harder to obtain. We applied it as a credit availability cross-check on demand pressure. |
| Colliers Philippines Q3 2025 Report | Major global real estate advisory with disclosed market tracking metrics. | We used it to quantify condo vacancy, take-up, and completions across Metro Manila submarkets. We also used it to identify buyer versus seller power signals from promo activity. |
| JLL Manila Residential Report Q3 2025 | Major global property consultancy with consistent methodology. | We used it for rent levels, capital values, and vacancy in the Makati-Taguig prime rental core. We converted these into gross rental yield estimates for buy-versus-rent analysis. |
| PSA OpenSTAT Building Permits Database | Official queryable government database for construction permits. | We used it to track whether new residential supply is accelerating or cooling. We connected permit trends to likely inventory pressure over the next 1 to 3 years. |
| PSA Family Income and Expenditure Survey | Official national statistics for household income benchmarks. | We used it as the baseline for household income levels in Metro Manila. We combined it with newer income figures to estimate price-to-income affordability ratios. |
| JICA Metro Manila Subway Project | Official development finance partner with technical project documentation. | We used it to describe the subway's objective and corridor relevance without relying on marketing claims. We linked it to areas that typically reprice when rail access becomes real. |
| NSCR Project Portal | Official project-facing portal tied to implementation and public engagement. | We used it to describe the North-South Commuter Railway corridor and intended connectivity. We connected the corridor to commuter-shed housing demand shifts. |
| Reuters BSP Rate Cut Coverage | Top-tier wire service with clear attribution to official central bank statements. | We used it as a dated snapshot of policy rate direction immediately before January 2026. We applied its inflation expectations to frame rate path risk for borrowers. |
| Inquirer NSCR Reporting | Major national newspaper reporting official agency statements and milestones. | We used it to cross-check timing and milestones being discussed publicly for NSCR. We translated reported milestones and delays into caution about pricing in future rail benefits. |
| DPWH Infrastructure Projects | National infrastructure agency with official project listings. | We used it to ground infrastructure catalyst discussion with official project references. We translated likely accessibility gains into neighborhood-level demand implications. |
We created this infographic to give you a simple idea of how much it costs to buy property in different parts of the Philippines. As you can see, it breaks down price ranges and property types for popular cities in the country. We hope this makes it easier to explore your options and understand the market.
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