Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Japan Property Pack
Everything you need to know before buying real estate is included in our Japan Property Pack
If you're wondering what homes actually cost in Japan right now, you're in the right place.
We've pulled together the latest data on Japanese property prices, trends, and forecasts to give you a clear picture of where the market stands in 2026.
This article is updated regularly to reflect the most current information available.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Japan.
Insights
- Japan's property market in 2026 operates as "two Japans" where Tokyo condos can rise 7% annually while rural areas see prices stagnate or decline in real terms.
- The typical home purchase in Japan runs around 40 million yen (roughly $260,000), but new condos in major cities often exceed 60 million yen due to construction costs and urban scarcity.
- Greater Tokyo resale condos now trade at about 810,000 yen per square meter, which is nearly double the national average of 450,000 yen per square meter.
- Japan's buildings depreciate faster than in most countries, so land value drives long-term returns, making station-adjacent plots in Tokyo far more resilient than suburban detached homes.
- Bank of Japan rate normalization means mortgage costs matter again after decades of ultra-low financing, and even small increases can shift buyer psychology significantly.
- Minato, Chuo, and Shibuya wards in Tokyo consistently outperform other areas, with annual price growth reaching 7% to 9% in prime pockets.
- Japan's population is projected to shrink nationally, yet major hubs like Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka still attract internal migration and support rising property values.
- New infrastructure like the Haneda Airport Access Line and Osaka's Naniwasuji Line are already influencing property values in connected neighborhoods before completion.
- Rental yields in ultra-prime central Tokyo are compressed below 3%, while secondary areas in outer wards can offer better cashflow with slightly higher risk.
- Over a 10-year horizon, prime Tokyo districts could see cumulative gains of 25% to 45%, while many rural markets may barely break even or decline.
What are the current property price trends in Japan as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Japan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the average home purchase price in Japan sits at approximately 40 million yen (around $260,000 or €240,000), though this figure blends together new condos, resale apartments, and detached houses across urban and rural areas.
When it comes to price per square meter, the Japan-wide average lands at roughly 450,000 yen per square meter ($2,900 or €2,700), but this varies dramatically depending on whether you're looking at a new Tokyo condo or an older house in a regional city.
The realistic price range that covers about 80% of property purchases in Japan spans from 26 million yen to 62 million yen ($170,000 to $400,000, or €155,000 to €370,000), with resale detached houses at the lower end and new condominiums in major cities at the higher end.
How much have property prices increased in Japan over the past 12 months?
Property prices across Japan have increased by an estimated 3% to 5% over the past 12 months, with major city condominiums seeing the strongest gains while rural areas remained mostly flat.
The range of price increases varies significantly by property type in Japan, from essentially 0% in depopulating rural markets to as high as 9% for well-located condos in central Tokyo and Osaka.
The single most significant factor driving this price movement has been supply scarcity in prime urban areas, where limited new construction combined with strong demand from both domestic buyers and international interest has kept upward pressure on prices.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Japan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the three neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Japan are Minato-ku in Tokyo (particularly Akasaka and the Shinagawa Bay area), Chuo-ku in Tokyo (the Nihonbashi and Tsukishima districts), and Fukuoka's Chuo-ku (centered on Tenjin and Daimyo).
These top-performing neighborhoods in Japan are seeing annual price growth of approximately 7% to 9% in Minato and Chuo wards, while Fukuoka's central district is growing at around 5% to 7% annually.
The main demand driver behind these fast-rising neighborhoods is a combination of major redevelopment projects, excellent public transit access, and a concentration of high-income employment, which creates persistent buyer competition for limited available properties.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Japan.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Japan. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Japan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the ranking of property types by value appreciation in Japan places condominiums (particularly resale units in central locations) at the top, followed by well-located detached houses, with older suburban homes and rural properties trailing behind.
The top-performing property type in Japan, central-city resale condominiums, is appreciating at approximately 5% to 8% annually in major metropolitan areas like Tokyo and Osaka.
The main reason condos are outperforming other property types in Japan is that smaller households, urban convenience preferences, and severe supply constraints in prime locations create sustained competition among buyers for a limited number of well-positioned units.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much do properties cost in Japan?
- How much should you pay for a house in Japan?
- How much should you pay for lands in Japan?
What is driving property prices up or down in Japan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three factors driving property prices in Japan are urban supply scarcity in major cities, elevated construction costs for new buildings, and the ongoing shift toward higher wages and moderate inflation supporting buyer budgets.
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure on Japanese property prices is the acute shortage of available homes in prime Tokyo and Osaka locations, where redevelopment concentrates demand into smaller geographic areas while new supply cannot keep pace.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Japan here.
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What is the property price forecast for Japan in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Japan in 2026?
As of early 2026, property prices across Japan are expected to increase by approximately 2% to 4% over the calendar year, with major city cores likely outperforming the national average.
The realistic range of forecasts from different analysts for Japanese property price growth in 2026 spans from about 1% on the conservative end to 6% on the optimistic end, depending on how interest rates and economic conditions evolve.
The main assumption underlying most price increase forecasts for Japan is that the Bank of Japan will continue its gradual rate normalization without aggressive tightening, allowing buyer demand to remain reasonably strong despite slightly higher borrowing costs.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Japan.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Japan in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Japan include Minato-ku and Shibuya-ku in Tokyo, Kita-ku (Umeda area) in Osaka, and Chuo-ku (Tenjin) in Fukuoka.
These top neighborhoods in Japan are projected to see price growth of 5% to 8% during 2026, outpacing the national average by a significant margin.
The primary catalyst driving expected growth in these Japanese neighborhoods is concentrated redevelopment activity combined with strong employment centers that attract both domestic migrants and international interest.
One emerging neighborhood in Japan that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is Nakano-ku in Tokyo, which offers excellent transit access and is attracting younger buyers priced out of more central wards.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Japan.
What property types will appreciate the most in Japan in 2026?
As of early 2026, resale condominiums in prime and near-prime locations are expected to appreciate the most among property types in Japan.
The projected appreciation for top-performing resale condos in Japan during 2026 is approximately 4% to 7%, depending on location quality and building age.
The main demand trend driving appreciation for resale condos in Japan is the combination of affordability constraints pushing buyers away from new-build prices, while urban scarcity keeps competition high for well-maintained units near train stations.
The property type expected to underperform in Japan during 2026 is older detached houses located far from train stations, as these suffer from faster structural depreciation and weaker resale demand in a market where land value near transit drives long-term returns.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Japan versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Japan in 2026?
As of early 2026, rising interest rates in Japan are expected to create modest downward pressure on property prices, particularly for stretched buyers considering new-build condos or properties in fringe locations.
The Bank of Japan's benchmark rate has been gradually normalizing, and mortgage rates in Japan are expected to continue edging upward during 2026, though they remain low by global standards.
A 1% increase in mortgage rates typically reduces purchasing power by roughly 10% in Japan, which tends to push buyers toward smaller units, older resale properties, or locations further from city centers where prices are lower.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Japan.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Japan in 2026?
As of early 2026, the three biggest risks for property prices in Japan are faster-than-expected interest rate increases from the Bank of Japan, a global economic downturn affecting employment and incomes, and accelerating demographic decline in areas outside major metropolitan centers.
The single risk with the highest probability of materializing in Japan during 2026 is continued demographic pressure in regional markets, where shrinking populations are already reducing buyer pools and could lead to further price stagnation or declines outside Tokyo, Osaka, and other major hubs.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Japan.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Japan in 2026?
As of early 2026, buying a rental property in Japan can be a reasonable choice if you prioritize cashflow discipline and location quality over speculative price gains, though conditions vary significantly by area.
The strongest argument in favor of buying a rental property now in Japan is that prime and near-prime locations continue to see stable tenant demand, while moderate inflation supports gradual rent increases that can offset higher financing costs over time.
The strongest argument for waiting before buying a rental property in Japan is that yields in ultra-prime central Tokyo are compressed below 3%, meaning returns depend heavily on future appreciation that may not materialize if interest rates rise faster than expected.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Japan.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Japan.
Buying real estate in Japan can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Japan?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Japan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Japan over the next 5 years is expected to reach approximately 8% to 15% nationally, with prime big-city locations potentially seeing gains of 15% to 25%.
The range of 5-year forecasts for Japan spans from a conservative scenario of around 5% cumulative growth (if rates rise aggressively and demand weakens) to an optimistic scenario of 20% or more (if economic conditions remain favorable and urban scarcity persists).
This translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 1.5% to 3% for Japan overall, though major metropolitan cores could average 3% to 5% annually.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on for their 5-year Japanese property predictions is that demographic decline will remain geographically concentrated, allowing Tokyo and other major hubs to continue attracting internal migration while national population shrinks.
Which areas in Japan will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The three areas in Japan expected to deliver the best price growth over the next 5 years are central Tokyo (particularly Minato, Chuo, and Shibuya wards), central Osaka (Kita and Chuo wards around Umeda and Namba), and Fukuoka's core district (Chuo and Hakata areas).
These top-performing areas in Japan are projected to see 5-year cumulative price growth of 20% to 30%, significantly outpacing the national average.
This longer forecast is largely consistent with our shorter-term view, though 5-year projections amplify the gap between prime urban locations and weaker regional markets because demographic and infrastructure trends compound over time.
One currently undervalued area in Japan with strong potential for outperformance over 5 years is Nakano-ku in Tokyo, which offers relatively affordable entry points while benefiting from excellent Chuo Line access and growing appeal among younger buyers.
What property type will give the best return in Japan over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, resale condominiums in prime and near-prime urban locations are expected to give the best total return over 5 years in Japan, balancing appreciation potential with rental income stability.
The projected 5-year total return for well-located resale condos in Japan, combining price appreciation and rental income, could reach approximately 25% to 40% in the best locations.
The main structural trend favoring resale condos over the next 5 years in Japan is the combination of shrinking household sizes, aging population preferring convenient locations, and continued supply constraints in central areas that keep these properties in high demand.
For investors seeking the best balance of return and lower risk over 5 years in Japan, well-located detached houses with strong land value near major train stations offer a compelling alternative, as land value provides downside protection even if the structure depreciates.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Japan over 5 years?
The three major infrastructure projects expected to impact Japanese property prices most over the next 5 years are the Haneda Airport Access Line in Tokyo (improving airport connectivity to central areas), Osaka's Naniwasuji Line (enhancing north-south transit links), and ongoing station redevelopment projects around major JR and private railway hubs.
Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Japan typically command a price premium of 5% to 15% compared to similar homes further from improved transit, with the effect strongest within a 10-minute walk of new stations.
Specific neighborhoods in Japan that will benefit most from these infrastructure developments include areas along the Haneda Access Line route in Tokyo, districts near the new Naniwasuji Line stations in Osaka, and any neighborhoods receiving upgraded station facilities or pedestrian improvements.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Japan in 5 years?
Japan's national population is projected to decline by roughly 0.5% annually over the next 5 years, but this demographic headwind will have an uneven impact on property values, with major cities largely insulated while rural areas face continued pressure.
The demographic shift with the strongest influence on Japanese property demand over 5 years is household size shrinkage, as more single-person and elderly households drive demand for smaller, conveniently located apartments rather than large suburban family homes.
Internal migration patterns in Japan are expected to continue favoring Tokyo, Osaka, Fukuoka, and other job centers, supporting property values in these metros even as national population declines, while depopulating prefectures see weaker demand and more oversupply.
The property types and areas that will benefit most from these demographic trends in Japan are compact condominiums in central urban locations with excellent transit access, healthcare facilities nearby, and walkable amenities.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Japan compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Japan?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Japan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Japan over the next 10 years is expected to reach approximately 10% to 25% nationally, with prime Tokyo and major city districts potentially achieving gains of 25% to 45%.
The range of 10-year forecasts for Japan spans from a conservative scenario of roughly 5% cumulative growth (if demographic decline accelerates and economic conditions weaken) to an optimistic scenario of 35% or more (if wage growth strengthens and urban demand remains robust).
This translates to a projected average annual appreciation rate of roughly 1% to 2.5% for Japan overall, with significant variation between thriving urban centers and declining regional markets.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Japan is the trajectory of demographic decline and whether policy interventions, immigration changes, or productivity gains can offset the structural headwind of a shrinking population.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Japan?
The three most important long-term economic factors that will shape property prices in Japan over the next decade are demographic trends and household formation rates, wage and productivity growth affecting affordability, and the evolution of monetary policy and interest rates.
The single long-term economic factor with the most positive potential impact on Japanese property values is sustained wage growth, which would improve affordability and support higher nominal prices even as the population shrinks.
The single long-term economic factor posing the greatest structural risk to Japanese property values is accelerating population decline, particularly if it spreads beyond rural areas to affect secondary cities and suburban Tokyo, reducing buyer pools and increasing vacant housing stock.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Japan.
Is buying a property in Japan a good long-term investment?
As of early 2026, buying a property in Japan can be a good long-term investment if you focus on location quality, transit access, and liquidity potential rather than expecting broad national appreciation.
The strongest argument for Japanese property as a long-term investment is that prime urban locations benefit from concentrated demand, limited supply, and durable land value that can outperform inflation even as the national market remains subdued.
The main caution for long-term property investment in Japan is that many regional and suburban areas face structural decline where exit liquidity becomes difficult, meaning a "cheap" property can become a liability rather than an asset if you cannot find a buyer when needed.
The key to successful long-term property investment in Japan is prioritizing station proximity, building quality, and management standards (for condos), while accepting that the "right Japan" of thriving urban cores will perform very differently from the "declining Japan" of depopulating regions.
Get the full checklist for your due diligence in Japan
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What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Japan, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| MLIT Trends Concerning Land (FY2024) | Japan's official ministry report on land prices and market monitoring. | We used it to anchor official land value directions for metro versus regional areas. We treated it as our macro reality check for all price trend claims. |
| MLIT Land Market Value Publication | Japan's official annual benchmark land price system with standard sites. | We used it to frame why central city prices behave differently from depopulating areas. We explained the Japan-specific pattern of land rising fastest in prime nodes. |
| MLIT Real Estate Transaction Price Information | Government's transaction price disclosure with searchable deal-level data. | We validated that our yen-per-square-meter ranges match real transactions. We cross-checked against private indexes to prevent estimate drift. |
| Japan Real Estate Institute Home Price Indices | Long-running national institution publishing widely cited housing indices. | We quantified the most recent home price index direction going into 2026. We used it as the backbone for current trend and forecast calibration. |
| BIS Residential Property Prices (via FRED) | Standard cross-country reference for residential property price trends. | We sanity-checked that Japan's direction matches international macro datasets. We avoided overfitting to Tokyo-only metrics. |
| REINS Market Watch (East Japan) | MLIT-designated real estate network publishing transaction-based stats. | We obtained concrete yen-per-square-meter levels in Greater Tokyo resale condo market. We captured what buyers actually paid, not just asking prices. |
| REINS Data Library | Official repository where REINS publishes recurring Market Watch materials. | We confirmed that Market Watch is a structured, recurring dataset. We supported repeatable methodology for ongoing updates. |
| Japan Housing Finance Agency Flat 35 Survey | Core housing finance institution aggregating real borrower application data. | We estimated typical purchase budgets by property type. We derived credible price-per-square-meter ranges using typical floor area assumptions. |
| JHF Flat 35 Survey Portal | Official index documenting survey scope, continuity, and definitions. | We validated what the survey measures and ensured correct interpretation. We justified using Flat 35 data as a national buyer budget proxy. |
| Statistics Bureau Housing and Land Survey | Japan's core official household and housing stock survey. | We grounded Japan-specific realities like housing stock composition and market segmentation. We explained why buildings depreciate and land matters more. |
| IMF World Economic Outlook (Oct 2025) | Top-tier global macro forecaster with transparent methodology. | We anchored 2026 macro assumptions for growth and inflation affecting demand. We kept forecasts consistent with mainstream economic baselines. |
| OECD Economic Outlook (Japan chapter) | Highly trusted policy institution with widely cited country outlooks. | We cross-checked the macro story for wages, consumption, and inflation. We bounded best case versus base case price growth ranges. |
| UN World Population Prospects | Official UN population projection dataset used globally. | We anchored Japan's long-run demographic headwind for housing outlook. We explained why major hubs can rise even as national population declines. |
| Reuters (BOJ Policy Coverage) | Reports specific BOJ decisions and schedules that can be verified. | We grounded the rates-are-no-longer-one-way-down shift for 2026. We justified why affordability pressure is a real risk even with strong demand. |
| JR East Haneda Airport Access Line | Official operator documentation for major infrastructure project. | We cited specific infrastructure improving Tokyo airport connectivity. We connected rail projects to neighborhood property value impacts. |
| Nankai Railway Naniwasuji Line | Official operator information on new Osaka transit line. | We documented infrastructure boosting Osaka north-south connectivity. We showed how anticipation affects prices before project completion. |
If you want to go deeper, you can read the following: