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SUMMARY
Are property prices in Ho-chi Minh City still rising? Yes. The stronger apartment segments are still moving higher, but the broad citywide boom has slowed sharply and the market is now much more dependent on the individual project and location.
The clearest current benchmark is JLL’s high-end apartment series, which was still up 5.1% year on year in Q2 2026. That is a long way from the 20%-plus gains seen in some earlier primary-market measures, but it is still positive growth in a comparable segment.
Headline averages have become unusually noisy because the definition of Ho Chi Minh City has changed and cheaper peripheral supply is entering the statistics. A falling metropolitan average can now coexist with rising prices in Thủ Thiêm or another established central project.
The market entered this slowdown from a very high base. Primary condominium prices rose by roughly 24% during 2024 in CBRE’s former-HCMC series, and the average was about 21% higher again by the end of 2025.
Resale apartments are much less predictable than they were a year ago. Completed projects with clear legal status, strong management and scarce locations can still rise, while older or more interchangeable buildings have lost much of the automatic uplift they enjoyed during the boom.
The east remains the strongest structural submarket. Former District 2, especially Thủ Thiêm and the established Metro Line 1 corridor, still has scarce land and strong developer concentration, but buyers are now paying a visible premium for that story rather than discovering it early.
The biggest pressure on prices is affordability. Core HCMC apartments around VND90 million per m² imply purchase prices above VND6 billion for an ordinary 70 m² unit, while mortgage rates around 10% to 14% make leverage difficult for a much larger share of local households.
Buyer caution is already showing up in absorption rather than only in sentiment. Primary apartment absorption was roughly 25% in Q1 and about 31% in Q2 in Cushman & Wakefield’s core-market data, while developers increasingly relied on payment schedules and incentives instead of simple headline price cuts.
Greater HCMC is finally giving buyers a serious alternative to central-city pricing. Former Bình Dương launched and sold thousands of apartments at a fraction of core HCMC pricing, which should act as a much stronger brake on broad metropolitan inflation than existed during the supply-starved years.
The most plausible near-term outcome is therefore not another immediate citywide surge and not a broad crash. Prime apartments and genuinely scarce locations can keep getting more expensive, while ordinary projects are more likely to stagnate, negotiate harder, or underperform as supply expands and buyers become choosier.
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Are Ho Chi Minh City property prices still going up?
Yes, Ho Chi Minh City property prices are still rising in some of the segments that matter most, but the citywide boom has clearly lost speed.
The latest numbers look contradictory at first. JLL measured high-end primary apartment prices at about US$5,335 per m² in Q2 2026, up 2.6% from the previous quarter and 5.1% from a year earlier. Cushman & Wakefield, meanwhile, put central HCMC apartment prices at US$6,209 per m², down 15% quarter on quarter but still 29% higher year on year. CBRE's broader residential average fell 3% from the previous quarter.
Those numbers measure different baskets of homes, so we cannot line them up as if they were the same index. Taken together, though, they show a market where comparable premium apartments can still appreciate even while broader averages are dragged around by new project mix.
HCMC has moved into a much more selective phase.
| Recent HCMC measure | Latest movement | What it covers | What we take from it |
|---|---|---|---|
| JLL high-end apartments | +2.6% QoQ, +5.1% YoY | High-end primary apartments | Comparable premium stock is still appreciating |
| Cushman central apartments | -15% QoQ, +29% YoY | New central apartments | Project mix is moving averages violently |
| CBRE primary residential | -3% QoQ | Broader primary market | Cheaper new stock is pulling averages lower |
| Cushman landed homes | -2% QoQ, -57% YoY | Primary landed market | New peripheral projects have reset the market average |
Why is it suddenly so hard to tell whether HCMC property prices are rising?
Ho Chi Minh City property prices are harder to read now because both the city's boundaries and the type of homes entering the market have changed dramatically.
The enlarged HCMC now includes the former Bình Dương and Bà Rịa–Vũng Tàu markets. At the same time, huge projects in places such as Hóc Môn are adding homes at prices far below prime central HCMC.
That can make an average fall even when an existing apartment in Thủ Thiêm has become more expensive.
We can see the distortion in recent research. Cushman & Wakefield's central apartment average jumped to almost US$7,300 per m² in Q1 2026 because premium launches dominated a very small pool of new supply. One quarter later, its average fell to about US$6,209 per m² as the product mix changed. A 15% quarterly drop did not mean owners across central HCMC suddenly lost 15%.
This is why a single citywide percentage is becoming less useful. We need to know whether we are talking about an old apartment, a new luxury project, a house in Hóc Môn or a condo in the former Bình Dương.
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Did HCMC apartment prices already rise too far before this slowdown?
Yes, Ho Chi Minh City apartment prices had already gone through a huge repricing before today's slower market arrived.
CBRE estimated that primary condominium prices in the former HCMC rose by about 24% during 2024. By the end of 2025, its average was around VND92 million per m², roughly 21% higher than a year earlier.
If those two annual increases are compounded, they amount to around 50%. We should not read that as a 50% gain for every apartment because the mix of projects changed, but it shows how far the market had already moved.
The resale market also surged. CBRE recorded secondary condominium prices up around 26% year on year at the end of 2025, with some high-end projects in the former District 2 rising by more than 40%.
So today's slowdown starts from an unusually high base. A market moving from 20%-plus annual growth to low-single-digit growth can feel weak while prices are still technically climbing.
| HCMC apartment measure | Earlier move | Later move | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary condos | ~+24% in 2024 | ~+21% YoY by end-2025 | Two unusually strong years |
| Primary average | ~VND76m/m² in late 2024 | ~VND92m/m² in late 2025 | Much higher entry price |
| Secondary condos | Rising | ~+26% YoY by end-2025 | Resale owners also captured the boom |
| Selected former District 2 projects | — | >40% in some cases | Prime eastern HCMC ran far ahead of the average |
Are new apartments in Ho Chi Minh City still getting more expensive?
Yes, new high-end apartments in Ho Chi Minh City are still getting more expensive today, although developers have become much more careful about how far they push prices.
JLL's high-end apartment benchmark increased 2.6% quarter on quarter in Q2 2026 and remained 5.1% above the previous year. That is genuine positive growth in a defined segment.
The pace has changed considerably. During 2024 and 2025, broader primary-market figures were rising by roughly 20% or more in some measures. Today's 5% annual gain looks far calmer.
Cushman & Wakefield provides another clue. Its central HCMC asking-price measure was still 29% higher year on year in Q2, even after falling sharply from the previous quarter because the launch mix changed. The firm also noted that those prices exclude early-bird incentives and accelerated-payment discounts.
Developers can therefore keep the advertised price high while making the actual deal easier for the buyer. We see less willingness to slash headline prices than to stretch payment schedules, offer discounts or subsidize financing.
The new-build market is still expensive and, in the better projects, still moving upward. Developers just have to work harder to close the sale now.
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Are HCMC resale apartment prices still rising?
HCMC resale apartment prices are no longer rising as reliably as they were in 2025.
The secondary market was one of the strongest parts of the boom last year. CBRE had average resale condominium prices up roughly 26% year on year by the end of 2025.
More recent market data point to a much less uniform picture. Higher financing costs have reduced the number of buyers willing to chase secondary units, while new developments compete with long payment plans and developer incentives that individual owners cannot easily match.
The result varies enormously by project. A completed apartment with clear legal status, good management and a strong location can still command more today than it did a year ago. Older projects with weaker facilities or many similar units for sale have less room to raise prices.
During the strongest part of the cycle, owners could benefit simply from being in a rising HCMC apartment market. That shortcut is gone. The individual building matters much more.
Is the former District 2 still one of HCMC's strongest property markets?
Yes, the former District 2 remains one of Ho Chi Minh City's strongest property markets, especially around Thủ Thiêm and the established eastern residential corridor.
CBRE found some high-end projects in the former District 2 gaining more than 40% during 2025. Cushman & Wakefield also showed how dominant the east remains for new apartment development: the eastern area accounted for 80.3% of core HCMC supply in Q1 2026 and 71% in Q2.
That concentration makes sense. The area combines scarce riverside sites, relatively modern housing, access to the traditional CBD and the operating Metro Line 1. Thủ Thiêm also has a scale of planned commercial development that few other parts of HCMC can reproduce.
The risk is price.
New apartments across the east can now be priced so far above the wider city that buyers are paying for much of the infrastructure story upfront. A great location can keep outperforming without repeating the extraordinary percentage gains seen when the area was cheaper and Metro Line 1 was still unfinished.
We still like the underlying pricing power of prime eastern HCMC. We would be much more cautious about assuming another 40% jump simply because a project sits near Thủ Thiêm.
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Is Metro Line 1 still lifting HCMC apartment prices?
Yes, Metro Line 1 is still helping apartment prices along its Ho Chi Minh City corridor, but buying near a station today is very different from buying before the line opened.
Savills has estimated that apartment projects along the corridor gained roughly 35% to 70% over the decade during which the metro was being built, with a few projects roughly doubling.
Researchers studying 40 apartment projects within two kilometres of Metro Line 1 stations have also found a statistically significant relationship between station proximity and apartment value. The metro premium can be measured; it is not just a developer marketing story.
The easy speculative gain, however, has already been captured in many places. Stations are open, the route is known and developers price that accessibility into new projects.
From here, we would pay more attention to what develops around each station. A stop surrounded by offices, retail, schools and dense residential activity can keep creating value. A project that merely says "near the metro" has a much weaker case.
| Metro Line 1 evidence | Result | What it means now | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Savills corridor projects | ~+35% to +70% over about a decade | Large gains were real | Much of the uplift happened before opening |
| Strongest historical projects | Around +100% in some cases | Metro can transform a location | These were exceptional projects |
| Academic research | 40 projects studied | Station distance affects value | Location quality still differs by station |
| Current market | Metro already operating | Accessibility supports prices | Buyers now pay a visible metro premium |
Is HCMC still short of apartments?
Yes, Ho Chi Minh City is still short of the apartments buyers actually want, especially reasonably priced homes in established urban locations.
The raw supply numbers make that clear. CBRE recorded only 850 new condominium launches in its HCMC coverage during Q2 2026, down 48% from the previous quarter. Cushman & Wakefield, using a somewhat broader methodology, counted just over 1,300.
Both firms therefore reach the same basic conclusion despite different totals: new apartment supply remains thin.
The shortage becomes even more obvious when we look at price. Savills previously found that apartments costing VND50 million per m² or less accounted for nearly half of sales in 2020. By 2024, their share had fallen to 18%, and subsequent quarters brought very little genuinely affordable stock back into core HCMC.
HCMC does not simply need more luxury towers. The market is missing the VND2 billion to VND4 billion apartments that a far larger group of households can realistically consider.
As long as that gap remains, well-located existing apartments have a strong floor under their prices.
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Is the HCMC housing shortage finally starting to ease?
Yes, HCMC's housing shortage should start easing over the next few years, but most of the new supply will appear far from the old city centre.
Cushman & Wakefield expects more than 15,000 apartments to enter its HCMC market during 2027. Its longer-range forecast also points to roughly 31,800 units in the former Bình Dương between 2026 and 2029, concentrated in places such as Dĩ An, Thuận An and Thủ Dầu Một.
Legal changes are helping. Vietnam brought revised Land, Housing and Real Estate Business laws into force in 2024, while local authorities have continued trying to unlock delayed projects. That does not create apartments overnight, but it expands the pipeline after years when legal bottlenecks severely restricted launches.
Geography will decide how much this affects prices.
Thirty thousand additional homes around the wider metropolitan area can give buyers more alternatives and cool the overall market. They cannot recreate a scarce riverfront plot in Thủ Thiêm or a completed building close to District 1.
The shortage is therefore becoming less severe at the metropolitan level while remaining very real in the most desirable submarkets.
Are HCMC buyers becoming much more cautious now?
Yes, Ho Chi Minh City property buyers are considerably more cautious now, and the slowdown is visible in actual sales rather than just surveys or commentary.
Cushman & Wakefield recorded an absorption rate of only 31% for newly launched primary apartments in Q2 2026. The firm said tightened credit and high interest rates were causing buyers to delay decisions.
That follows an already weak Q1, when core HCMC recorded fewer than 1,000 new-home sales and absorption of roughly 25%.
Financing explains part of the hesitation. Cushman & Wakefield put mortgage rates at roughly 10% to 14% around the middle of 2026. At those rates, even a wealthy household thinks differently about borrowing several billion dong.
Developers know it. Current projects increasingly use flexible payment schedules, early-bird discounts and different handover conditions to keep buyers interested without openly marking down list prices.
Demand has not disappeared. Buyers have simply become harder to convince, which is exactly the sort of market where price growth usually gets patchier.
| Buyer-demand measure | Recent reading | Comparison | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 new-apartment absorption | ~31% | Still low | Buyers are selective |
| Q1 core apartment absorption | ~25% | Even weaker | Caution began before Q2 |
| Q2 core new supply | >1,300 units | -53% YoY | Developers are also holding launches back |
| Mortgage rates | ~10%–14% | High for leveraged buyers | Financing is directly hurting affordability |
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Are HCMC apartment prices becoming unaffordable for local buyers?
Yes, a large part of Ho Chi Minh City's new apartment market has moved beyond what ordinary local households can comfortably finance.
Take VND50 million per m². A 70 m² apartment at that price costs VND3.5 billion before transaction costs. Yet apartments at or below that level have become increasingly rare in the core city.
At VND92 million per m², which was CBRE's average primary level in the former HCMC near the end of 2025, the same 70 m² apartment costs about VND6.44 billion.
With 70% financing, the mortgage alone would be roughly VND4.5 billion. Double-digit borrowing costs make that a serious monthly commitment even before maintenance fees, furnishing and other expenses.
This affordability problem helps explain two recent developments that otherwise seem unrelated: buyers are moving farther out, while developers are giving people much longer to pay.
High prices can survive an affordability problem for quite a while in HCMC because buyers include wealthy families, investors and households receiving family capital. Another broad round of 20%-plus annual appreciation is much harder to see from here.
| Apartment price | Cost for 70 m² | 70% mortgage | How it feels in today's market |
|---|---|---|---|
| VND50m/m² | VND3.50bn | VND2.45bn | Increasingly hard to find in core HCMC |
| VND70m/m² | VND4.90bn | VND3.43bn | Already a major household purchase |
| VND92m/m² | VND6.44bn | VND4.51bn | Close to the recent former-HCMC primary average |
| VND120m/m² | VND8.40bn | VND5.88bn | Premium-buyer territory |
Are buyers moving from central HCMC to cheaper suburbs?
Yes, buyers are moving outward, and this is becoming one of the clearest changes in the Ho Chi Minh City housing market.
Cushman & Wakefield counted roughly 1,200 new apartments in core HCMC in Q1 2026. Across the wider metropolitan market, more than 7,000 units were launched and more than 6,100 were sold.
The former Bình Dương was responsible for most of that activity. Around 6,430 units entered the market there during the quarter, and approximately 5,484 units sold. Its average primary price was around US$1,886 per m², a fraction of the almost US$7,300 recorded in core HCMC during the same period.
That is a huge price gap.
A household that no longer accepts central-HCMC pricing can buy a much newer or larger home farther out rather than leave the market completely. Better road links and metropolitan integration make that trade-off easier than it was a decade ago.
This outward movement is probably one of the strongest brakes on future citywide price inflation. Central HCMC can remain expensive, but it now competes with a much bigger pool of alternatives.
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Has Greater HCMC changed what a "Ho Chi Minh City property price" means?
Yes, Greater HCMC has made the idea of one Ho Chi Minh City property price much less meaningful.
The expanded city now contains everything from ultra-premium apartments close to the old CBD to mass-market projects dozens of kilometres away. Their prices can differ by several times.
The recent landed-home data show how dramatic the effect can be. Cushman & Wakefield counted about 1,700 new landed units in Q2 2026, with roughly 70% of the supply coming from the northern area, largely because of the new Vinhomes Saigon Park phase in Hóc Môn.
Its marketwide primary landed price then fell to about US$6,460 per m², down 57% year on year. JLL, which uses another methodology and market definition, reported an even lower landed benchmark of US$2,724 per m² and a 45.2% annual decline.
Those declines mainly tell us that cheaper homes entered the sample. They do not prove that a comparable villa in an established inner-city neighbourhood lost half its value.
For property buyers today, district, project and housing type tell us far more than the headline HCMC average.
Could Ho Chi Minh City property prices start rising quickly again?
Ho Chi Minh City property prices could accelerate again, but we would need several things to change at the same time.
Cheaper mortgages would make the biggest immediate difference. Buyers who are hesitant at 10% to 14% borrowing costs could return quickly if financing became much easier.
The second condition would be another disappointment on housing supply. Developers currently have a much larger pipeline than they did during the supply-starved years. If legal delays push a large share of those homes back again, scarcity would return faster than expected.
The third clue would come from developer incentives. Right now, flexible payment plans and discounts are helping projects move. If developers can remove those concessions, raise prices and still sell quickly, we would have much stronger evidence that another broad upswing has begun.
Some neighbourhoods can move earlier. New infrastructure, commercial development and scarce sites can still create sharp local increases even when the wider HCMC market is quiet.
We are much less convinced by the case for another immediate citywide surge. The metropolitan supply base is simply becoming larger.
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Could Ho Chi Minh City property prices actually fall?
Yes, Ho Chi Minh City property prices could fall more broadly if expensive financing lasts long enough for the new supply pipeline to catch up with buyers.
We already have parts of that setup. Absorption is weak, buyers are delaying purchases, developers are offering incentives and some market averages have fallen from the previous quarter.
What we do not see yet is widespread distressed selling.
Homeowners do not necessarily cut prices simply because transaction volumes slow. Many will hold an apartment rather than accept a large loss, particularly if they are not heavily leveraged. The result can be months of low liquidity with surprisingly sticky asking prices.
A more serious correction would become much easier if resale owners suddenly had to compete with thousands of completed new homes while mortgage costs stayed high.
For now, selective price cuts and long periods of stagnation look more plausible than a broad HCMC housing crash.
So, are property prices in Ho Chi Minh City still rising?
Yes, Ho Chi Minh City property prices are still rising in the stronger apartment segments, but the broad property boom has already broken into very different local markets.
The latest comparable high-end data remain positive, with JLL's apartment benchmark still up 5.1% year on year. Prime eastern HCMC also continues to benefit from scarce land, Metro Line 1 and strong developer activity.
The weaker side of the market is increasingly easy to see as well. Core apartment absorption has been low, mortgage rates are painful, developers are relying more on incentives, and buyers are finding much cheaper alternatives in the wider metropolitan area.
Even recent price declines can be misleading because thousands of cheaper suburban homes are entering statistics that previously contained a much more expensive mix. That makes today's market impossible to summarize with one citywide percentage.
Our conclusion is clear. HCMC property prices are rising, but the easy, broad-based phase of the boom is over. Prime apartments and genuinely scarce locations can keep getting more expensive. Ordinary projects now have to justify their price, and peripheral supply is finally giving buyers somewhere else to go.
For anyone buying today, the useful question is no longer whether Ho Chi Minh City as a whole will rise. The project and location will increasingly decide whether it does.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
The question “Are property prices in Ho Chi Minh City still rising?” sounds simple, but one headline number does not answer it well. We therefore broke the market into current price momentum, primary versus resale performance, core versus wider metropolitan HCMC, buyer demand and liquidity, financing and affordability, housing supply, and the effect of location and infrastructure.
For each part, we prioritized the freshest available evidence and used pricing, transaction, absorption, launch, mortgage and supply data from major real-estate research firms. Older figures were used mainly to establish a baseline and show how the current market differs from the previous phase of the cycle.
We kept unlike datasets separate. JLL, Cushman & Wakefield, CBRE and Savills do not always measure the same geography, property segment or price concept, so we did not blend their figures into an artificial citywide average. We first looked at movement within comparable series, then compared whether the broader indicators were pointing in the same direction.
The enlarged HCMC market required particular care. We distinguished the former or core city from the wider post-merger market whenever cheaper peripheral supply could materially alter metropolitan averages. Sharp movements in citywide landed or apartment averages were therefore checked for changes in project mix before being treated as evidence of comparable property values rising or falling.
We also tested price movements against what was happening underneath them. Prices can remain firm while liquidity weakens, so absorption, sales activity, developer incentives, borrowing costs, affordability and incoming supply were used alongside price data before drawing the broader conclusion.
Infrastructure was treated as a location-specific factor rather than a blanket appreciation rule. Metro Line 1 evidence was used to assess how station proximity can affect values, while recognizing that much of the historical uplift was captured before the line became operational and that not every station or nearby project has the same development quality.
Key sources used for this analysis include JLL’s Ho Chi Minh City Residential Market Dynamics Q2 2026, Cushman & Wakefield’s Ho Chi Minh City Residential MarketBeat Q2 2026, Cushman & Wakefield on the Q1 2026 shift from core HCMC toward the wider metropolitan market, CBRE’s Ho Chi Minh City Figures Q2 2026, CBRE’s Q4 2025 figures, Savills’ Viet Nam Real Estate Market Brief Q2 2026, and Savills on HCMC’s affordable-housing shortage.
For the structural and geographic parts of the analysis, we also used the official government source on the 2025 provincial administrative reorganization, the Land Law, the Housing Law, the Law on Real Estate Business, the Ho Chi Minh City official source on Metro Line 1 operations, and the GIS-based research on Metro Line 1 and property prices.
The final conclusion is not based on one index, one forecast or one expert view. It comes from comparing recent evidence across the parts of the market that actually determine whether prices are still rising, and giving the most weight to observations that were current, directly measured and consistent with the rest of the evidence.
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