Is Harumi Flag becoming oversupplied?

Get all the data you need about the real estate market in Japan

Is Harumi Flag actually becoming oversupplied now?

Harumi Flag is showing real oversupply in parts of the resale market right now, especially SKY DUO, but the wider neighborhood still has enough demand to prevent us from calling the whole project oversupplied.

The distinction becomes clear once we separate people who want to live at Harumi Flag from owners who want to sell there.

HARUMI FLAG has more than 5,500 homes across the wider development. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government says more than 11,200 people now live there, already close to the roughly 12,000 residents originally envisioned for the neighborhood. So there is no obvious shortage of people willing to live in Harumi.

The resale market looks more awkward. SKY DUO added 1,455 tower apartments, and a noticeable number reached the secondary market around the same time after handover. Several property databases now show much heavier seller competition in the towers than in the original mid-rise villages.

Recent transactions are still happening, including seven SKY DUO deals in June and another seven in July according to HARUMI FLAG specialist brokerage FLAGSHIPS. Those were the strongest two consecutive months of the previous half-year.

Our current read is quite specific: Harumi Flag has enough residents, but certain types of owners are competing too aggressively for the same buyers. That is genuine resale oversupply, even if the development itself is far from empty.

Part of Harumi Flag	Approx. homes	Current market picture	Oversupply risk
Original mid-rise villages	2,690	Limited resale supply, regular transactions	Low to moderate
SKY DUO	1,455	Much heavier resale competition	High
Neighborhood overall	More than 5,500	More than 11,200 residents	Low
Investor-owned units	Unusually high share in some buildings	Can return to market quickly	High

Why did Harumi Flag end up with so many investors?

Harumi Flag attracted an unusually large investor population because the original apartments were sold cheaply enough to create enormous instant resale upside.

NHK's investigation of the original 2,690 condominium units found 491 already being offered for resale or rent shortly after occupancy began. Its examination of SUN VILLAGE ownership records found 292 of 1,089 units registered to companies, roughly 27%.

Some individual buildings were above 40% corporate ownership. One company reportedly controlled 38 apartments.

That ownership pattern was helped by the original sales process. Early buyers could apply for multiple units, while prices increasingly looked cheap compared with the rest of central Tokyo. Average lottery competition rose from 2.57 applicants per unit in an early phase to 13.8 later and eventually 71.1. One apartment attracted 266 applications.

Those numbers explain why today's supply behaves differently from a normal residential development.

A typical condominium mostly produces sellers when people move, divorce, inherit property or change jobs. Harumi Flag also has a large group of owners who bought because the price looked mispriced. Once those units gained 50%, 80% or even more than 100%, selling became part of the original investment logic.

Investor indicator	Evidence	What it tells us
Units quickly marketed for sale or rent	491 of 2,690	Large speculative pool
Corporate ownership in SUN VILLAGE	292 of 1,089	About 27%
Units reportedly owned by one company	38	Ownership could be highly concentrated
Later average lottery competition	71.1x	Initial pricing was far below demand
Highest reported lottery	266x	Speculative upside was obvious

Did SKY DUO make the Harumi Flag oversupply problem worse?

Yes. SKY DUO made Harumi Flag's resale supply problem much more visible because 1,455 newly transferable apartments reached the market within the same short period.

The towers contain 733 homes in SUN VILLAGE and 722 in PARK VILLAGE. Residents started moving into SKY DUO after completion, but investors could also finally sell units they had bought years earlier.

That created a synchronized wave of sellers.

The timing is important. Before handover, FLAGSHIPS was already recording around 15 new SKY DUO resale offerings in some months. Once owners received their units, the market gained many more apartments that could legally and practically be sold.

Even today, specialist brokerage sites display numerous SKY DUO units with very similar floor areas, layouts and views. A buyer looking for a 70–80 m² 3LDK can often compare several units inside the same pair of towers rather than negotiating with one seller.

The balance of power has flipped. During the original lottery, buyers fought for access. Today, many SKY DUO sellers are fighting to stand out.

Are Harumi Flag sellers piling onto the market faster than buyers can absorb them?

In the mid-rise buildings, new Harumi Flag listings have recently been arriving faster than recorded transactions, although the gap moves around considerably from month to month.

FLAGSHIPS recorded 61 newly offered mid-rise apartments from January through July. Over roughly the same period, about 25 transactions were recorded.

The monthly pattern is uneven. February produced 16 new listings against four sales. March had seven versus four. April had five versus three. June was much healthier, with eight new units and seven deals. July then widened again to 12 new listings and only three transactions.

We should not interpret 61 minus 25 as 36 unsold homes because listings disappear for other reasons. Some owners withdraw apartments, change brokers or relaunch at another price.

Still, buyers are no longer clearing every new unit quickly.

SKY DUO has recently absorbed units better. FLAGSHIPS recorded seven tower transactions in both June and July, the highest monthly level of the previous six months. That is surprisingly strong given all the talk about oversupply.

The problem today is concentrated seller competition rather than a market where nobody buys anything.

Period	New mid-rise listings	Recorded mid-rise deals	What happened
January	7	1	Weak absorption
February	16	4	Heavy new supply
March	7	4	Better
April	5	3	Fairly balanced
June	8	7	Strong absorption
July	12	3	Supply widened again

Are SKY DUO owners already cutting prices?

Yes. Price cuts are appearing now in SKY DUO, which is one of the clearest signs that seller competition has become uncomfortable.

A recent snapshot from property-data platform Chitaku tracked nine active SUN VILLAGE SKY DUO listings and found that three had cut their asking prices within a single week. That is roughly one-third of the monitored stock.

One small portal snapshot cannot tell us the direction of the entire 1,455-unit tower market. The interesting part is that the behavior matches what we see elsewhere.

FLAGSHIPS has repeatedly described a shift toward more selective buyers. Apartments with attractive views, higher floors or strong layouts still sell. Ordinary units priced as though every SKY DUO apartment deserves a huge speculative premium face much more resistance.

We also see large differences between asking prices for similar floor areas. Current SUN tower listings around 70–80 m² stretch from roughly ¥130 million into the ¥180 million range, with exceptional floors and views priced much higher.

Buyers can see those alternatives immediately. Sellers who overshoot now risk sitting beside cheaper near-substitutes in the same building.

That is how oversupply usually starts to influence prices: slowly, apartment by apartment, before any dramatic headline decline appears.

Are Harumi Flag prices actually falling?

Harumi Flag prices are softening in some ordinary units, but current transaction data do not show anything close to a broad price collapse.

The mid-rise market gives us the clearest example.

FLAGSHIPS recorded an average completed-sale price of ¥5.61 million per tsubo in April. That jumped to ¥6.47 million in June before falling back to ¥5.86 million in July.

Those swings are large because relatively few apartments trade each month and HARUMI FLAG units vary enormously by size, floor, orientation and view.

Looking at individual transactions is therefore more useful. In June, SUN VILLAGE 70 m²-class apartments sold around ¥5.67 million to ¥6.22 million per tsubo. SEA VILLAGE larger apartments achieved roughly ¥6.52 million to ¥7.47 million.

SKY DUO has also continued producing expensive deals. Before and after handover, some apartments sold for 1.7 to almost 2 times their original developer prices, while premium units have cleared at more than ¥10 million per tsubo.

So far, the pressure sits underneath the headline averages rather than showing up as a general crash. Average apartments need increasingly realistic prices. Exceptional apartments still attract very strong bids.

Is Harumi Flag becoming a buyer's market?

Harumi Flag is becoming much more buyer-friendly today, particularly when several similar apartments are available inside the same village or tower.

This is probably the biggest practical change from the early resale boom.

The original buyer had almost no bargaining power. Hundreds of people sometimes competed for the right to buy a developer unit. Someone who missed the lottery either paid a large resale premium or went elsewhere.

The current SKY DUO buyer can often compare several 2LDK and 3LDK apartments at once. SUUMO currently shows units around 55–80 m² at asking prices ranging from roughly ¥115 million to above ¥180 million, depending on floor and orientation.

Some apartments are advertised as immediately available. Others have already had asking prices reduced.

That creates leverage.

A buyer can reject a poorly priced east-facing 3LDK and look three floors higher. Someone who dislikes the SUN tower can compare PARK. A family willing to give up the tower view can move into the mid-rise section and save substantially.

Harumi Flag sellers can still achieve excellent prices, but the easy phase where almost any resale listing benefited from scarcity has passed.

Is the Harumi Flag rental market also crowded?

Yes. Harumi Flag currently has enough rental competition that landlords cannot assume a premium apartment will automatically find a tenant at whatever rent they choose.

Rental portals often show dozens of HARUMI FLAG advertisements at once. We need to be careful with those counts because several brokers can advertise the same apartment, so 50 portal listings do not necessarily mean 50 different empty units.

The underlying supply is still substantial.

NHK had already found hundreds of original HARUMI FLAG apartments entering either the resale or rental market shortly after move-in. SKY DUO later added another 1,455 homes, including investor-owned units.

Current rental estimates from LIFULL HOME'S put a SUN VILLAGE SKY DUO apartment around 61 m² at roughly ¥280,000 per month and a roughly 98 m² unit above ¥510,000, with plenty of variation by floor and view.

Those are meaningful rents even by Tokyo standards. Tenants paying ¥350,000–¥500,000 per month are able to compare HARUMI FLAG with newer towers in Kachidoki, Toyosu, Tsukishima and elsewhere in the bay area.

Harumi Flag has attracted thousands of residents, so rental demand clearly exists. The harder question for investors is whether tenants will accept the rent needed to justify today's resale price.

Rental factor	Current situation	Effect on landlords
Number of investor-owned units	High	More competing landlords
Similar 2LDK/3LDK layouts	Numerous	Easy for tenants to compare
Typical large-unit rent	Several hundred thousand yen monthly	Smaller tenant pool
Kachidoki walk	Long for Tokyo	Limits rent premium
Resident population	Strong	Prevents a demand collapse

Does the long walk to Kachidoki Station make Harumi Flag oversupply more dangerous?

Yes. Harumi Flag's distance from Kachidoki Station becomes a much bigger pricing issue once buyers have plenty of apartments to choose from.

Depending on the building, the walk is commonly quoted at roughly 16–21 minutes. SKY DUO is usually marketed around 18 minutes.

That was easy to tolerate when original HARUMI FLAG prices were dramatically below comparable central Tokyo condominiums. Buyers were effectively receiving a large home, new construction, waterfront views and extensive shared facilities in exchange for a weaker rail connection.

Resale buyers face a different calculation now.

A ¥150 million or ¥180 million budget opens far more possibilities across Tokyo than the original developer price did. Buyers can compare HARUMI FLAG with properties closer to rail stations in Kachidoki, Tsukishima and Toyosu.

Tokyo BRT helps, and HARUMI FLAG also has buses, cycling infrastructure and a multimobility station. Those options have clearly been good enough for thousands of residents.

Still, the station distance puts a limit on how aggressively an ordinary HARUMI FLAG apartment can be priced when ten similar units are competing nearby.

Are people actually living at Harumi Flag, or are too many apartments still empty?

People are very clearly living at Harumi Flag now, and the old ghost-town argument has become badly outdated.

Tokyo Metropolitan Government figures put the development's resident population above 11,200. The original planning assumption was around 12,000 residents.

That is a much stronger measure of housing demand than photos of dark windows taken during the first months of move-ins.

Harumi Flag now has schools, nurseries, shops, medical services, parks, community facilities, Tokyo BRT and thousands of families using them. LaLa Terrace opened as the neighborhood filled, while SKY DUO brought another major wave of residents.

There may still be investment apartments sitting empty between tenants or waiting for a buyer. With more than 5,500 homes, some vacancy is unavoidable.

But an oversupply thesis based on the idea that nobody wants to live at Harumi Flag simply does not survive the population data.

Will more new apartments around Harumi make the problem worse?

More development around Harumi will make mediocre Harumi Flag units harder to sell at premium prices, although it could also make the neighborhood itself more attractive.

The freshest example is the former HARUMI FLAG sales-center land in Harumi 2-chome. FLAGSHIPS reported recently that Mitsui Fudosan had acquired the site and was considering condominium development there.

That would eventually introduce another modern housing option into the same waterfront submarket.

At the same time, further development tends to bring more shops, better services and a stronger residential ecosystem. Harumi becomes a more established place to live as construction fills the remaining gaps.

So additional supply cuts both ways.

The risk is greatest for interchangeable apartments. A standard HARUMI FLAG 3LDK with no exceptional view has to compete on price. A high-floor SKY DUO apartment overlooking Rainbow Bridge or a large SEA VILLAGE corner unit is much harder to replace.

This difference between ordinary and genuinely scarce units is likely to become more obvious over the next few years.

What would tell us Harumi Flag has become seriously oversupplied?

Harumi Flag would cross into serious oversupply if inventory kept growing while completed-sale prices, rents and transaction volumes all weakened together.

We do not see that full combination today.

Transaction volume actually improved recently in SKY DUO, with seven completed deals in June and seven again in July. The mid-rise market also produced seven transactions in June before slowing to three in July.

At the same time, we have clear warning signs. New mid-rise listings have often exceeded monthly deals. SKY DUO owners are cutting asking prices. Buyers have many similar units to choose from. Some original investors are sitting on gains large enough that they can cut prices substantially and still make money.

The next stage is easy to identify.

If SKY DUO price reductions become more frequent while monthly transactions fall back toward two or three units, we would become much more negative. The same would apply if standard 70–80 m² apartments started repeatedly closing below previous comparable transactions rather than simply below optimistic asking prices.

Falling rents would strengthen the case further because investors would lose the option of comfortably renting units they cannot sell.

For now, the resale market is clearing. It is simply clearing with much more negotiation than before.

What to watch	Current situation	Serious oversupply warning
SKY DUO transactions	Recently 7 per month	Falls persistently despite price cuts
New resale listings	High in some months	Keeps rising faster than deals
Asking prices	Cuts already appearing	Broad repeated reductions
Completed-sale prices	Still strong overall	Comparable units trend consistently lower
Rents	Demand still present	Falling rents plus persistent vacancy

Is Harumi Flag becoming oversupplied?

Yes, Harumi Flag is becoming oversupplied in parts of its resale market, and SKY DUO is where the problem is most obvious right now.

We would stop short of calling HARUMI FLAG itself overbuilt. More than 11,000 people already live there, recent transactions continue, and well-positioned apartments can still command extremely high prices.

The weak spot is the ownership structure.

Too many investors bought similar apartments at unusually low original prices, then reached the resale market within a relatively short period. SKY DUO amplified that problem by releasing another 1,455 homes into an environment where many owners had enormous unrealized gains.

Buyers now have choices they simply did not have during the original lottery.

That is already affecting behavior. Price cuts are appearing. Ordinary apartments have to compete harder. New listings have sometimes arrived considerably faster than mid-rise transactions. Meanwhile, the best units continue selling because their views, size or position make them genuinely scarce.

Harumi Flag has entered a selective oversupply phase. Standard investor-owned units, especially in SKY DUO, are becoming harder to sell at inflated asking prices. Sellers who bought cheaply can probably absorb that adjustment without distress, which makes a sudden crash less likely.

The more plausible outcome is a slow separation between apartments that deserve a premium and apartments that were simply priced as if every HARUMI FLAG unit were scarce.

That separation has already started.

Who is the author of this content?

BAMBOOROUTES

A team specialized in real estate investing in APAC countries (Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, etc.).

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Japan. If you’d like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.