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SUMMARY
Yes. Tokyo condo prices are already falling in parts of the resale market, and the evidence now points to a broader correction rather than another uninterrupted leg higher.
The important change is not one weak monthly number. Tokyo Kantei's 23-ward resale series has fallen for two consecutive months after more than two years of gains, central Tokyo has weakened for longer, and completed-sale data are softening at the same time.
New-build records are giving a misleading impression of the wider market. Tokyo developers are launching very few apartments, often at the expensive end, so a small number of luxury projects can push the average sharply higher even while ordinary resale condos become harder to sell.
That also means Tokyo does not look like a classic oversupply bubble. Greater Tokyo new-condo supply is around its lowest level in more than half a century, which makes a broad crash driven by excess construction much less likely.
Affordability has become the clearer problem. Average new-condo prices above ¥100 million have spread into 19 of Tokyo's 23 wards, including districts that buyers once used as cheaper alternatives to the center.
Higher mortgage rates are arriving at exactly the wrong moment for buyers. Moving an ¥80 million, 35-year loan from roughly 1% to 3% adds about ¥82,000 a month, before management fees, repair reserves and property taxes.
There are still strong cushions under the market. Rents remain near record levels, land values continue rising, construction is expensive and developers have little incentive to create a wave of cheaper replacement stock.
Foreign and wealthy buyers can keep trophy projects in Minato, Chiyoda, Chuo and Shibuya extremely expensive, but that demand does much less for an ordinary aging condo in a neighborhood where buyers have several substitutes.
The next phase should therefore be much more uneven than the boom. Overpriced resale units, weak buildings and apartments with high running costs can fall noticeably, while scarce homes near major stations may barely move.
A 5% to 10% correction in weaker resale segments now looks quite believable, with larger drops possible in individual overheated buildings. A 20% to 30% fall across Tokyo's 23 wards would still need a much worse combination of recession, tighter credit, forced selling or collapsing rents.
Tokyo's condo boom has turned, but it has not yet turned into a crash. The more useful question now is not whether every Tokyo condo will fall, but which properties were priced as if the boom could never end.
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Have Tokyo condo prices actually started falling?
Yes. Tokyo resale condo prices have started to fall, and the latest data make the change harder to dismiss as a one-month wobble.
Tokyo Kantei's standardized 70 m² asking-price series for the 23 wards fell 0.8% in June and another 0.1% in July, leaving the typical 70 m² unit at ¥127.24 million. June was the first monthly decline in 26 months.
That sounds small, and it is. After more than two years of uninterrupted gains, though, two consecutive declines tell us that sellers can no longer assume the market will absorb a higher price every month.
The picture gets more interesting once we separate resale condos from new developments. New condos in the 23 wards averaged a record ¥142.49 million during the first half of 2026, according to the Real Estate Economic Institute. Then the July average jumped to ¥265.2 million as several very expensive projects came to market.
Those figures describe different things. Tokyo Kantei tracks a standardized 70 m² resale apartment, while the new-build average can swing enormously depending on which luxury projects launch. A handful of ¥300 million to ¥500 million apartments can move the average without making an ordinary 20-year-old condo in Setagaya worth anything close to that amount.
So, as of now, Tokyo's resale market has started correcting while the new-build market is still printing extraordinary headline prices.
| Tokyo condo indicator | Earlier reading | Latest reading | What we see |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23-ward resale, 70 m² | ¥128.49m in May | ¥127.24m in July | Two monthly declines |
| June resale change | — | -0.8% | First fall in 26 months |
| July resale change | — | -0.1% | Weakness continued |
| New condo average, first half | — | ¥142.49m | Record high |
| New condo average, July | — | ¥265.2m | Heavily distorted by luxury launches |
Is central Tokyo already turning?
Yes. Central Tokyo is currently further into the correction than the 23-ward average, which makes it the clearest early warning inside the city.
Tokyo Kantei recorded three consecutive monthly declines in its central-Tokyo resale measure by July. It also found more apartments coming onto the market and signs of the adjustment spreading into neighboring wards.
Seller behavior changed as well. In Tokyo Kantei's June sample, more than half of central-Tokyo listings had undergone a price revision.
That is more revealing than a tiny move in an average index. During the strongest stage of the boom, owners could list aggressively and wait for buyers to catch up. These days, more sellers are discovering that the initial asking price simply does not clear the market.
Central Tokyo also had the furthest to fall. Chiyoda, Minato, Chuo, Shibuya and nearby prime districts recorded some of the largest gains of the entire cycle. Prices there became increasingly dependent on wealthy domestic buyers, investors and overseas purchasers rather than normal salaried-household affordability.
A few months of declines cannot establish a long downturn. They do show that even Tokyo's most fashionable districts have lost the automatic upward momentum they enjoyed before.
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Are Tokyo condo buyers starting to pull back?
Yes. Buyers across the Greater Tokyo resale market have become noticeably more selective, and July produced one of the clearest combinations of weaker demand and growing choice so far.
East Japan REINS reported 3,638 resale-condo transactions across Greater Tokyo in July, down 8.6% from a year earlier. Transactions had fallen year on year for four consecutive months.
Meanwhile, 16,474 properties were newly registered for sale, up 5.7%, and total inventory reached 47,151 units, up 5.5%. Inventory had increased for five consecutive months.
Prices achieved in completed deals were weakening too. The average contracted price per square meter was ¥841,700, down 1.5% year on year, while the average transaction price fell 0.7% to ¥52.67 million. Both measures had declined year on year for three consecutive months.
This combination deserves more attention than a new luxury launch in Minato pushing an average to another record. More apartments are available, fewer are changing hands, and achieved prices are slipping.
Greater Tokyo is still a functioning and liquid housing market. What has changed is bargaining power. Buyers now have more room to reject an overpriced apartment and inspect the next one.
| Greater Tokyo resale market | July reading | YoY change | Recent pattern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completed transactions | 3,638 | -8.6% | Down four months in a row |
| New listings | 16,474 | +5.7% | Rising |
| Inventory | 47,151 | +5.5% | Up five months in a row |
| Contracted price/m² | ¥841,700 | -1.5% | Down three months in a row |
| Average contracted price | ¥52.67m | -0.7% | Down three months in a row |
Is Tokyo building too many condos?
No. Tokyo still has remarkably little new condo supply, and that shortage is the biggest obstacle to a severe citywide price fall.
Only 21,659 new condominiums were supplied across Greater Tokyo during the fiscal year ending in March, according to the Real Estate Economic Institute. Supply fell another 2.6% and reached the lowest level since its fiscal-year records began in 1973.
That comparison goes back more than half a century.
The calendar-year data tell the same story. Greater Tokyo had only 21,962 new launches in 2025, down 4.5% from the previous year. The market once absorbed several times that number.
Tokyo therefore has a strange combination right now: resale inventory is increasing while construction of new condos remains historically scarce.
Those trends can coexist. Existing owners may become more willing to sell just as developers struggle to acquire land and build affordable projects.
A classic housing bust becomes much easier when developers have built far more homes than buyers need. Tokyo currently has almost the reverse problem. New housing is expensive to produce and there is very little of it.
That does not protect every resale apartment. It does make a broad 20% or 30% Tokyo condo collapse much harder to generate from supply alone.
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Have Tokyo condos become too expensive for local buyers?
Yes. New Tokyo condos have moved beyond the comfortable reach of ordinary local households across much more of the city, and affordability is now a real constraint on further price growth.
LIFULL HOME'S looked at new-condo listings from January through May and found an average price above ¥100 million in 19 of Tokyo's 23 wards.
The interesting part is where the threshold has spread.
Sumida averaged ¥138.1 million, Arakawa ¥106.01 million, Itabashi ¥102.4 million and Adachi ¥111.66 million. All four crossed ¥100 million for the first time since LIFULL began this version of its survey.
This used to be a problem concentrated in prestigious central districts. It now reaches areas that buyers traditionally considered alternatives to central Tokyo.
Across all 23 wards, LIFULL calculated an average new-condo listing price of ¥168.84 million and ¥2.305 million per square meter. Chiyoda reached ¥351.5 million on average, Chuo ¥297.92 million and Shibuya ¥277.92 million.
We should be careful with those averages because project mix matters enormously. Even after allowing for that distortion, the geographical spread of ¥100 million-plus pricing is difficult to ignore.
A household priced out of Minato could once move several wards outward and cut the purchase price dramatically. That escape route is getting narrower.
| Ward | Average listed new-condo price | What stands out |
|---|---|---|
| Chiyoda | ¥351.5m | Only ward above ¥300m |
| Chuo | ¥297.92m | Close to ¥300m |
| Sumida | ¥138.10m | Above ¥100m for first time in survey |
| Arakawa | ¥106.01m | Above ¥100m for first time |
| Itabashi | ¥102.40m | Above ¥100m for first time |
| Adachi | ¥111.66m | Above ¥100m for first time |
| Tokyo 23 wards | ¥168.84m | ¥100m+ now common across the city |
Are higher mortgage rates finally hurting Tokyo condo prices?
Yes. Higher Japanese mortgage rates are now strong enough to reduce what Tokyo buyers can comfortably borrow, and the pressure is arriving while condo prices are already extremely high.
The Bank of Japan currently guides the overnight rate at around 1.0%. Japan spent years with rates around zero or below zero, so today's financing environment represents a major change even if 1% looks low by international standards.
Fixed mortgages show the shift clearly. The most common Flat 35 rate for a 21-to-35-year loan currently stands at 3.46% before any applicable preferential reduction.
Many Japanese buyers use cheaper variable-rate mortgages, so 3.46% should never be presented as the rate every household pays. The useful point is the direction of travel: financing has become more expensive while purchase prices have continued climbing.
Consider an ¥80 million, 35-year mortgage. At 1%, principal and interest come to roughly ¥226,000 a month. At 2%, the payment rises to around ¥265,000. At 3%, it is about ¥308,000.
A two-percentage-point increase therefore adds roughly ¥82,000 every month, or close to ¥1 million a year.
Tokyo buyers also pay management fees, repair-reserve contributions and property taxes. Once those costs are added, an apparently modest rate increase can remove a large group of households from the top end of the market.
Higher rates are unlikely to create instant forced selling across Tokyo because many existing owners bought earlier at much lower prices and are sitting on large unrealized gains. The first effect is showing up among new buyers instead: more hesitation, more choice and more negotiation.
| ¥80m mortgage over 35 years | Approx. monthly payment | Extra vs 1% |
|---|---|---|
| 1% | ¥226,000 | — |
| 2% | ¥265,000 | +¥39,000 |
| 3% | ¥308,000 | +¥82,000 |
| 3.46% | ~¥330,000 | ~+¥104,000 |
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Why are new Tokyo condo prices still hitting records if the market is weakening?
Because developers are selling fewer apartments at much higher prices, and expensive projects can heavily distort Tokyo's new-condo average.
The Real Estate Economic Institute put the average new-condo price in the 23 wards at ¥142.49 million during the first half of 2026, up 9.1% year on year.
Then July produced a ¥265.2 million average, up 96% from a year earlier.
Tokyo did not suddenly become twice as expensive in a few weeks. That month's project mix included extremely expensive central developments, with Minato launches around the ¥500 million average level playing an outsized role.
The underlying business model has also changed. Developers face expensive land, materials and labor, so they increasingly build fewer homes aimed at buyers who can still afford them.
The first-month contract rate offers a useful check on the record-price headlines. Across Greater Tokyo, the annual contract rate was only 63.9% in 2025, below the traditional 70% benchmark for a second consecutive year.
So record prices and softer demand can happen at the same time. Developers have protected headline prices partly by restricting supply and moving upmarket.
For anyone trying to judge whether a normal Tokyo condo is about to lose value, the resale market is currently much more informative than the average price of whatever luxury tower happened to launch last month.
Will expensive land and construction costs stop Tokyo condo prices from falling?
They should limit the downside for new condos. Tokyo land and building costs remain so high that developers have very little room to produce a wave of cheap replacement stock.
The government's latest official land-price survey is striking. Residential land values across Tokyo's 23 wards rose 9.0% year on year, accelerating from 7.9% previously. Every one of the 23 wards recorded an increase.
Minato residential land rose 16.6%, Taito 14.2% and Shinagawa 13.9%.
Commercial land was even stronger. Prices across the 23 wards increased 13.8%, with Taito up 19.1%, Bunkyo 17.8%, and Nakano and Suginami both up 17.5%.
The government also found that the pace of land appreciation accelerated during the second half of the measured year.
At the same time, LIFULL points to materials, labor and central-Tokyo land costs as major reasons developers keep raising prices. Those costs are already embedded in newly acquired sites and projects under construction.
This creates a floor under replacement value. If a developer cannot make acceptable returns selling at ¥100 million, building a similar unit for ¥80 million is hardly an attractive solution.
Existing resale condos can still trade below today's asking prices. Buyers hoping developers will suddenly flood Tokyo with much cheaper new apartments, though, are betting against the economics of construction currently visible on the ground.
| Official Tokyo land-price measure | Latest annual change |
|---|---|
| 23-ward residential land | +9.0% |
| Minato residential land | +16.6% |
| Taito residential land | +14.2% |
| Shinagawa residential land | +13.9% |
| 23-ward commercial land | +13.8% |
| Taito commercial land | +19.1% |
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Are Tokyo rents still strong enough to support condo prices?
Yes. Tokyo condo rents are currently near record levels, giving owners another reason to resist large price cuts.
Tokyo Kantei put the average condominium rent in the 23 wards at ¥5,157 per square meter in July, up 0.8% from the previous month. It was the second consecutive monthly increase and kept rents close to their highest level in the series.
For a 70 m² apartment, ¥5,157 per square meter translates into roughly ¥361,000 a month, although the actual rent varies enormously by ward, building age and quality.
Against a resale asking value of roughly ¥127 million for Tokyo Kantei's standardized 70 m² unit, that gives a crude gross yield of about 3.4%.
That yield hardly makes Tokyo look cheap. Financing costs have risen, management charges are higher and investors still need to allow for vacancy, tax and maintenance.
Rising rents do help the downside case, though. An owner collecting more rent every year has less reason to dump a property at a steep discount. An investor can also absorb some financing pressure through higher rental income.
For owner-occupiers, the calculation is less comfortable. A household comparing a very expensive purchase with renting may decide that ¥300,000 to ¥400,000 a month is preferable to committing a huge down payment and taking a large mortgage.
Strong rents support property values while simultaneously giving would-be buyers another way to stay in Tokyo without buying.
Are foreign buyers keeping Tokyo condo prices high?
Foreign buyers are helping keep prime Tokyo expensive, especially at the luxury end, but they cannot carry the entire condo market.
International demand matters most in Minato, Chiyoda, Chuo, Shibuya and high-profile redevelopment projects where ¥200 million, ¥300 million or ¥500 million apartments are increasingly common.
Tokyo can still look relatively attractive to wealthy buyers comparing it with central Hong Kong, Singapore, London or New York. Japan also imposes fewer restrictions on foreign ownership of ordinary residential property than many Asian markets.
That creates a pool of demand with very different affordability limits from Japanese salaried households.
The effect becomes obvious in luxury-launch data. A development aimed at international and ultra-high-net-worth buyers only needs a relatively small number of purchasers to sell hundreds of expensive units. The median Tokyo household is almost irrelevant to that project's pricing.
Most of Tokyo's condo stock lives outside that world. A 25-year-old apartment in Nerima, Itabashi or Edogawa still depends mainly on domestic buyers, local rents and Japanese mortgage conditions.
Foreign money can therefore preserve eye-watering prices in selected buildings even while a much larger part of Tokyo becomes harder to sell.
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Can Tokyo's population keep condo prices from falling?
Tokyo's population pull gives the condo market a strong long-term base, although people moving to Tokyo can choose to rent or buy farther out when purchase prices become unreasonable.
This remains one of the major differences between Tokyo and many other Japanese property markets.
Japan's national population keeps shrinking, while Tokyo continues to attract younger workers, students and households from other prefectures. Jobs, universities, company headquarters and high-paying service industries remain concentrated in the capital.
Tokyo therefore does not face the same fundamental problem as a regional city losing households every year: finding people to occupy all those homes.
The affordability response is more subtle. Someone who moves to Tokyo still has several options. They can rent, buy an older apartment, live in a smaller unit or move across the prefectural boundary into Kanagawa, Saitama or Chiba.
Population growth supports housing demand without guaranteeing that today's purchase prices can keep rising.
For the strongest neighborhoods around major stations, continued inward migration remains a serious protection. For generic apartments that already look expensive compared with nearby rent, demographics offer much less protection from a correction.
Which Tokyo condos could fall the hardest?
Overpriced resale condos with plenty of substitutes are the clearest downside candidates today, while scarce apartments in exceptional locations should hold up much better.
The market became forgiving during the boom. Buyers worried that waiting six months would simply mean paying more, so mediocre properties could rise alongside excellent ones.
That behavior is fading.
With resale inventory now increasing, buyers can compare several apartments and punish flaws again. A long walk from the station matters. So does an aging building, weak maintenance, a poor repair reserve, high monthly charges, an awkward layout or an asking price based on last year's hottest comparable.
Running costs deserve particular attention. East Japan REINS has documented rising condominium management fees and repair-reserve contributions, adding another layer to the affordability problem created by higher mortgages.
Location should matter more too. A well-managed tower directly connected to a major station has limited competition. A standard apartment ten or fifteen minutes away may compete with dozens of similar units.
Central Tokyo adds another twist. Some luxury apartments could experience larger percentage corrections because their previous gains were so extreme, even while the best buildings remain expensive.
Expect a wider gap between winners and losers rather than one clean Tokyo-wide percentage move.
| More vulnerable today | Better protected today |
|---|---|
| Aggressively priced resale units | Rare prime properties |
| Buildings with many nearby substitutes | Major-station locations |
| Long walks from rail transport | Direct or very short station access |
| Weak maintenance or reserves | Strong building management |
| High recurring ownership costs | Efficient fee structures |
| Units bought mainly for short-term appreciation | Homes with durable owner-occupier demand |
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Could Tokyo condo prices fall without a dramatic crash?
Absolutely. A slow correction is currently much more believable than a spectacular Tokyo property crash.
There are several ways prices can adjust.
Some apartments can fall 5% or 10% while trophy properties remain flat. Owners can accept larger negotiations without changing advertised prices immediately. Developers can build fewer units. And nominal prices can stay roughly unchanged for years while inflation and wages gradually reduce their real value.
Imagine a ¥100 million condo still selling for ¥100 million four years later while general prices rise around 2% a year. The newspaper sees a flat property price. In real purchasing-power terms, the property has lost close to 8%.
Tokyo is particularly suited to this kind of adjustment because distressed sellers do not currently dominate the market. Many existing owners bought earlier at much lower prices, and developers have already responded to expensive construction by limiting output.
That can make the downturn frustratingly uneven. One building drops 12%. A better building 500 meters away stays flat. A new luxury tower sets another record and makes the entire city look stronger than it really is.
A slow, selective correction would barely resemble the dramatic crash people imagine when they hear that Tokyo condo prices are falling. It could still be painful for anyone who bought the wrong apartment near the top.
How far could Tokyo condo prices realistically fall?
A 5% to 10% decline in vulnerable Tokyo resale condos is credible from today's evidence, while a 20% to 30% citywide collapse would require conditions to deteriorate far beyond what we can currently see.
The bear case has become much stronger lately. Standardized resale asking prices have fallen for two months. Central Tokyo has weakened for longer. Greater Tokyo completed-sale prices have declined year on year for three months. Transaction volumes are falling while inventory and new listings rise. Financing is more expensive.
Those trends can easily produce further price cuts.
A much deeper Tokyo-wide fall needs another layer of pressure. We would probably need substantially higher mortgage costs, a serious employment shock, forced selling, a sharp reversal in rents, a retreat in wealthy and foreign demand, or several of those things at once.
Supply still pushes strongly in the other direction. New-condo launches are near half-century lows. Land in every Tokyo ward has appreciated. Construction remains expensive. Rents are high. Tokyo continues attracting residents.
Individual properties can absolutely fall 15% or 20%, especially after an excessive run-up or if a seller has to move quickly. That is different from the average condo across the 23 wards losing a quarter of its value.
For now, 5% to 10% is the range we would take seriously for weaker segments if the current resale deterioration continues. A citywide crash requires evidence that has not arrived.
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Are Tokyo condo prices about to fall?
Yes, in parts of the market. Tokyo's resale correction has already started, and more apartments are likely to record lower prices, although the evidence still points toward a selective downturn rather than a citywide crash.
The change over the past few months is real. Tokyo Kantei's 23-ward resale index has fallen twice after 25 consecutive monthly gains. Central Tokyo has declined for three months. REINS shows Greater Tokyo transactions down for four consecutive months, inventory up for five and completed-sale prices down year on year for three.
Put together, those indicators say the same thing: buyers have regained some bargaining power.
Several forces still make a deep Tokyo-wide decline difficult. New supply is at its lowest level in roughly half a century. Official residential land prices across the 23 wards rose 9.0%. New construction remains expensive. Condo rents are near record levels. Prime Tokyo still attracts wealthy domestic and foreign buyers.
The next stage should therefore be much more selective than the boom that preceded it. During the rally, almost every decent Tokyo condo benefited from the same upward current. Now, building quality, station access, age, running costs and the seller's asking price matter much more.
Our call is fairly clear: weaker resale properties can plausibly lose 5% to 10% if the current pattern continues. Some overheated buildings could fall considerably more.
A 20% to 30% drop across Tokyo's 23 wards still looks unlikely without a recession, much tighter credit or a genuine wave of forced selling.
Tokyo's condo boom has turned. The interesting question now is how far the correction spreads.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Tokyo condo prices are about to fall by separating the market into the parts that can actually answer that question: resale-price momentum, completed transactions, listings and inventory, new-build supply, affordability, financing, rents, land and construction costs, demographic demand and differences between prime and more replaceable properties.
We kept unlike measures separate. Tokyo Kantei's standardized 70 m² series is used to track resale asking-price momentum, while East Japan REINS is used for completed transactions, achieved prices, new listings and inventory. New-development averages from the Real Estate Economic Institute are treated separately because a small number of expensive launches can move them sharply.
The conclusion is built through cross-confirmation rather than one headline number. A monthly price decline carries more weight when transaction volumes are weakening, inventory is rising and achieved sale prices are also softening. We also weighed those downside indicators against the factors still supporting prices, particularly limited new supply, rising rents, higher land values and expensive construction.
We did not convert the evidence into a numerical market score. The indicators cover different parts of the market, so we assessed them according to their recency, persistence, directness and market coverage. The 5% to 10% downside range discussed above is therefore a scenario judgment for weaker resale segments, not a mechanical forecast for every Tokyo condo.
For affordability and financing, we used LIFULL HOME'S ward-level new-condo data, the Bank of Japan's current policy setting and official Flat 35 mortgage rates. The mortgage-payment examples are illustrative calculations designed to show how higher rates affect buyer capacity rather than to suggest that every Japanese household borrows on the same terms.
Land and replacement-cost pressure are based primarily on the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's official land-price survey, while Tokyo Kantei's rental series is used to judge whether rental income is still providing owners with meaningful support. Demographic demand is checked against Statistics Bureau and Tokyo Metropolitan Government population data.
We also distinguish the prime market from ordinary Tokyo housing. International and wealthy-buyer demand can materially affect luxury projects in central wards, but it should not be used as a blanket explanation for pricing across older or more suburban resale stock.
Key sources used for this analysis include Tokyo Kantei's standardized 70 m² resale-price series, Tokyo Kantei's June 2026 resale report, East Japan REINS' July 2026 Monthly Market Watch, East Japan REINS' analysis of management fees and repair reserves, the Real Estate Economic Institute's first-half 2026 new-condo report, its FY2025 Greater Tokyo supply report, LIFULL HOME'S ward-level new-condo analysis, Tokyo Kantei's July 2026 rent report, the Bank of Japan, Flat 35, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism's official land-price survey, the Statistics Bureau's internal-migration data, Tokyo Metropolitan Government population estimates, and Ministry of Justice real-estate registration guidance for overseas foreign owners.
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