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SUMMARY
Yes. Tokyo rents are likely to keep rising for now, but the next phase should be slower and much less uniform than the surge of the past two years.
The strongest point in the bull case is that three different parts of the market are still moving in the same direction: asking rents remain high, rent indices are still rising, and tenants signing leases are actually paying more.
The rent boom is no longer just a Minato or Shibuya story. In the latest REINS comparison, 22 of Tokyo’s 23 wards had higher contracted condominium rents than a year earlier, with some of the biggest increases appearing in cheaper outer wards.
There is still a gap between what long-term tenants pay and what landlords can charge when a unit becomes vacant. That gives rent growth some inertia even if spot-market increases begin to cool.
Small apartments look closer to an affordability ceiling than the wider market. A 25-month record streak for single-oriented condominium asking rents finally ended, while the newest properties have also found it harder to keep pushing rents higher.
Tenant resistance is already visible, but mostly through behavior rather than outright rent declines. Completed rental transactions are down, and more households appear willing to compromise on size, age, location or commute rather than accept every increase.
Tokyo’s ownership market is still expensive enough to keep some would-be buyers renting. Small recent declines in resale condo prices do little to change that after the huge rise in purchase costs over the past decade.
Population and household demand remain supportive. Tokyo is still gaining residents while Japan shrinks overall, and the city’s large number of single- and two-person households keeps housing demand high relative to population growth alone.
The biggest medium-term brake is supply. Rental housing starts have rebounded sharply, and a sustained construction cycle could eventually take pressure out of rents, although new units take time to complete and tend to arrive at relatively high price points.
Wage growth also limits how far the current boom can run. Pay increases around 4% to 5% can support moderate rent growth, but they are much harder to reconcile with repeated 8% to 10% increases across mainstream apartments.
Our base case is continued nominal rent growth, led increasingly by well-connected family units, scarce local supply and older leases resetting toward market levels. Tiny units near affordability limits and expensive new buildings have less room left.
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Are Tokyo rents still rising right now?
Tokyo rents are still rising, and the latest data give us little reason to call the peak yet.
Tokyo Kantei's latest reading put condominium rents in the 23 wards at ¥5,157 per square meter. That was another 0.8% monthly increase, the second increase in a row, and the highest level recorded over the previous year. Across Tokyo prefecture, rents reached ¥4,963 per square meter.
AtHome's latest asking-rent data point in the same direction. Every apartment-size category across the main Tokyo metropolitan markets remained above its level a year earlier. Couple-oriented condominiums in the 23 wards reached another record, continuing a 14-month run of new highs.
More importantly, higher asking rents have already reached signed contracts. East Japan REINS recorded an average contracted condominium rent of ¥3,899 per square meter in the 23 wards during the latest reported quarter, compared with ¥3,705 a year earlier. That works out to roughly 5.2% growth.
The average monthly condominium rent rose even faster, from ¥122,000 to ¥132,000. Apartments rather than condominiums also became more expensive, with contracted rent per square meter rising about 6.5%.
So as of now, Tokyo still has three separate datasets telling roughly the same story: advertised rents are high, condominium rent indices are still moving up, and tenants signing leases are actually paying more.
| Tokyo 23 wards rental measure | Earlier level | Latest level | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contracted condominium rent/m² | ¥3,705 | ¥3,899 | +5.2% | REINS |
| Average contracted condo rent | ¥122,000 | ¥132,000 | +8.2% | REINS |
| Contracted apartment rent/m² | ¥2,943 | ¥3,134 | +6.5% | REINS |
| Tokyo Kantei condo rent/m² | ¥5,118 | ¥5,157 | +0.8% MoM | Tokyo Kantei |
Is the Tokyo rent boom spreading beyond Minato and Shibuya?
Yes. Tokyo's rent boom has spread far beyond the expensive central wards, which makes the current increase much harder to dismiss as a luxury-market story.
We compared REINS contracted condominium rents across the 23 wards with the same quarter one year earlier. Twenty-two of the 23 wards recorded a higher rent per square meter.
Several of the biggest increases appeared well outside the neighborhoods usually associated with Tokyo's high-end housing market. Edogawa was up about 10.7%, Kita around 7.8%, Adachi 7.7%, Nerima 7.5% and Katsushika 6.7%.
Central Tokyo remains in another price league. Minato reached almost ¥6,000 per square meter, while Chiyoda exceeded ¥5,500 and Shibuya ¥5,200. Yet those expensive wards no longer explain the overall direction of the market.
Cheaper apartment buildings show much the same pattern. Among wards with enough comparable REINS apartment transactions, the large majority recorded higher rents than a year earlier.
That breadth is one of the strongest findings in the data. When rent increases reach Edogawa, Adachi and Nerima alongside Minato and Chiyoda, we are dealing with pressure across Tokyo's rental system rather than a handful of wealthy neighborhoods.
| Ward | Earlier rent/m² | Latest rent/m² | Approx. change | Area |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiyoda | ¥4,765 | ¥5,549 | +16.5% | Central |
| Edogawa | ¥2,520 | ¥2,790 | +10.7% | East |
| Kita | ¥3,366 | ¥3,627 | +7.8% | North |
| Adachi | ¥2,582 | ¥2,780 | +7.7% | North |
| Nerima | ¥2,665 | ¥2,864 | +7.5% | West |
| Katsushika | ¥2,664 | ¥2,842 | +6.7% | East |
| Arakawa | ¥3,350 | ¥3,252 | -2.9% | North-east |
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Are Tokyo asking rents getting ahead of what tenants will actually pay?
Tokyo asking rents are getting more aggressive, but tenants are still accepting enough of those increases to keep actual rents moving higher.
There is an important difference between AtHome's advertised rents and REINS completed leases. Landlords can raise an advertisement immediately. A REINS transaction only appears once somebody actually signs.
Today both are moving in the same direction.
Tokyo Kantei has the 23-ward condominium market around ¥5,157 per square meter, while REINS contracted condominium rents are up about 5.2% year over year. AtHome continues to show record or near-record asking rents across several apartment sizes.
We would be much more skeptical if landlords were repeatedly increasing listings while completed rents stayed flat. That broad divergence has not appeared.
There are early cracks, though. AtHome's latest release showed that 23-ward condominium asking rents for single-person units finally fell after 25 consecutive months of record highs. That is the first meaningful break in a very long streak.
For now, it looks more like landlords are discovering the upper limit in certain segments than the whole market suddenly turning.
Are small Tokyo apartments finally becoming too expensive?
Small Tokyo apartments are the clearest part of the market where we can now see tenants pushing back.
AtHome's single-oriented condominium category in the 23 wards had set a record for 25 consecutive months before finally falling in the latest reading. Its apartment equivalent, however, was still setting records, so one monthly decline is not enough to call a reversal.
Tokyo Kantei gives us another clue. Its newest properties, the category that includes units less than five years old, have lately struggled to push rents higher even while older age groups remained firm.
That makes sense when we look at how renters can respond to higher prices. Someone renting 50 square meters can move to 40. Someone already renting a 20-square-meter studio has much less room to shrink without making a major lifestyle compromise.
A young renter can still move farther from the station, choose an older building or leave the central wards entirely. Those choices increasingly become the pressure valve once the cheapest reasonable apartments stop feeling cheap.
This does not give us enough evidence to predict falling small-unit rents. It does make another two-year streak of almost uninterrupted record highs considerably harder to imagine.
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How much higher can Tokyo landlords charge when a tenant moves out?
Tokyo landlords can currently get much more from many apartments when an old tenant leaves, which gives rents another source of upward pressure even if headline growth cools.
Advance Residence is useful here because its portfolio contains thousands of rental units and reports how rents change when tenants are replaced.
In its latest reported fiscal period, rent on replacement leases across its portfolio increased on average. Earlier reporting also showed especially large resets in Tokyo, where apartments that had been occupied for several years could be remarketed much closer to today's price.
We have to interpret those numbers carefully. A large increase on a replacement contract does not mean the entire Tokyo market is growing at that rate every year. The departing tenant may have signed a lease several years earlier, when Tokyo rents were much lower.
That gap is important for the next stage of the market. Tokyo still contains plenty of apartments where the existing tenant pays less than a new renter would pay today. Each time one becomes vacant, the landlord gets another chance to close part of that difference.
Advance Residence has also reported more than 20 consecutive fiscal periods of increasing portfolio rent per tsubo. Its Tokyo 23-ward rent per tsubo rose 2.37% during one recent six-month period, considerably slower than some new-lease increases but still strong for an entire occupied portfolio.
This gives Tokyo rent growth some inertia. Spot rents can slow while the average rent collected by landlords continues creeping upward.
Can Tokyo landlords raise the rent on existing tenants just as easily?
No. Existing Tokyo tenants have far more protection from sudden rent increases than somebody shopping for a new apartment.
Tokyo's metropolitan housing authorities have specifically reminded tenants that landlords cannot simply dictate an increase and automatically force them to accept it. Ordinary lease disputes can involve comparable local rents, taxes, property values and other economic conditions, and disagreement does not immediately give a landlord the right to remove a tenant.
That creates two rental markets inside the same building.
The first is the market for vacant apartments, where owners can test today's price against new applicants. The second is the large stock of occupied apartments whose rents adjust more slowly.
Institutional landlord data show that renewal rents can still increase. The increases are generally much more restrained than the jumps achieved after a tenant moves out.
For Tokyo's outlook, this slows the rent boom without killing it. It also means the headline market can keep repricing for years as leases gradually turn over.
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Are Tokyo renters starting to resist higher rents?
Yes. Tokyo renters are already responding to higher prices, although that resistance has so far changed where and how people rent more than the overall direction of rents.
REINS recorded 18,218 condominium rental contracts in the 23 wards during the latest reported quarter, compared with 21,515 one year earlier. That is roughly a 15% drop in completed deals. Apartment transactions also fell.
At the same time, the rent paid per square meter increased.
Fewer contracts alongside higher rents can happen when people stay longer in their existing apartment, search for cheaper neighborhoods, compromise on size or age, or cross into Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa instead of accepting the new Tokyo price.
Mitsui Fudosan Realty has also reported stronger movement from the 23 wards toward cheaper parts of the metropolitan area as central rents rise.
We should expect more tenant resistance from here. Tokyo landlords still have pricing power today, but renters have already started changing their behavior rather than absorbing every increase.
| 23-ward completed rentals | Earlier quarter | Latest quarter | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Condominium contracts | 21,515 | 18,218 | -15.3% |
| Condo monthly rent | ¥122,000 | ¥132,000 | +8.2% |
| Condo rent/m² | ¥3,705 | ¥3,899 | +5.2% |
| Apartment contracts | 5,643 | 5,212 | -7.6% |
| Apartment rent/m² | ¥2,943 | ¥3,134 | +6.5% |
Is Tokyo still gaining enough people to keep rents high?
Yes. Tokyo is still adding residents while most of Japan is shrinking, and that remains a powerful support for rental demand.
The latest Tokyo Metropolitan Government estimate puts the prefecture's population at about 14.30 million. That is roughly 61,000 more people than a year earlier. The 23 wards alone are now sitting just below 10 million residents.
Tokyo also has about 7.64 million households.
The household figure deserves as much attention as the population figure because apartments are occupied by households, not population statistics. Tokyo has large numbers of single-person and two-person households, so even modest population growth can create meaningful housing demand.
Domestic migration continues helping. Earlier Statistics Bureau data showed tens of thousands more Japanese residents moving into the 23 wards than leaving during the year. Including international movements makes Tokyo's broader social population gain considerably larger.
There is little support for the simple argument that Japan's shrinking national population will soon push Tokyo rents down.
People and jobs are still concentrating in the capital. As long as Tokyo keeps winning population from the rest of the country and attracting international residents, Japan's national demographic decline can coexist with a tight Tokyo housing market.
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Is Tokyo building enough rental housing to cool rents?
Tokyo is building more rental housing again in the latest data, but the current construction rebound is not large enough yet to change our rent outlook.
This part of the story has changed recently, so older numbers can be misleading.
Earlier fiscal-year data showed Tokyo rental starts falling 7.4%, which looked like a clear supply constraint. The latest monthly figures are stronger. Tokyo recorded 6,362 rental-housing starts in the latest available month, up 14.4% from a year earlier and marking a third consecutive monthly increase.
Total housing starts in Tokyo also rose 16.0% year over year that month.
We should stop describing Tokyo as if residential construction were currently collapsing. Builders are responding.
The scale and location of that response are what matter now. One or two stronger quarters of starts will not immediately create apartments, and metropolitan-wide construction does not automatically solve shortages in the neighborhoods where demand is strongest.
Tokyo also faces high land, construction and labor costs. New supply therefore tends to enter the market at rents that developers can justify economically, which limits how much it can undercut existing properties.
A sustained construction acceleration could eventually change the rent story. We are not there yet.
| Latest Tokyo housing-start indicator | Units | YoY change | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| All new housing | 10,792 | +16.0% | Supply has rebounded |
| Rental housing | 6,362 | +14.4% | Three months of growth |
| For-sale housing | 3,180 | +23.5% | Strong rebound |
| Condominiums for sale | 1,481 | +18.2% | More ownership supply too |
Are crazy Tokyo condo prices keeping people in the rental market?
Yes. Tokyo's extremely expensive ownership market is keeping some households renting for longer, and that adds another layer of demand.
The longer-term change is huge. According to Mitsui Fudosan Realty's review of market data, the average price of a new condominium across the broader Tokyo metropolitan area increased from about ¥54.9 million in 2016 to more than ¥90 million by 2025. New-condominium supply fell sharply over the same period.
Inside the 23 wards, the numbers became even more extreme. Tokyo Kantei recently valued a standardized 70-square-meter second-hand condominium at around ¥127 million.
Interestingly, that market has lately shown its first signs of cooling. Tokyo Kantei recorded two consecutive monthly declines in 23-ward second-hand condominium prices, leaving the standardized price around ¥127.24 million.
Those small declines do very little for affordability after such a huge run-up. A renter who had hoped to buy still faces a purchase price dramatically above the levels of a decade ago.
High mortgage rates by Japanese standards, larger required deposits and higher property prices all raise the hurdle further.
For many households, renting remains the only realistic way to live in the neighborhood and apartment size they want. Until buying becomes materially easier, Tokyo's expensive ownership market should continue feeding rental demand.
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Are Tokyo salaries rising quickly enough to pay these higher rents?
Tokyo wages are rising enough to support moderate rent increases, but probably not enough to sustain another long stretch of 8% or 10% mainstream rent growth.
Tokyo's latest final spring wage-negotiation survey showed an average increase of ¥17,573 per month among the comparable unions surveyed, equal to 4.82% of their average wage.
Japan has now had several consecutive years of unusually strong spring wage settlements. That gives landlords a much better backdrop for rent increases than they had during the long period when Japanese nominal wages barely moved.
The problem is the gap between wage growth and some rental increases.
REINS contracted condominium rent per square meter in the 23 wards rose roughly 5.2% year over year, while the average monthly rent increased about 8.2%. Even allowing for changes in apartment size and composition, renters cannot repeatedly absorb that sort of increase if household incomes settle closer to 4% or 5%.
And the spring-wage figures do not represent every Tokyo renter. Young workers, students, freelancers and employees of smaller businesses can have much weaker income growth.
Wages therefore give Tokyo rents more room to rise from here, but they also point toward a slower pace. Low-to-mid-single-digit rent increases can coexist with current pay growth much more easily than another prolonged run near double digits.
Will people just leave the Tokyo 23 wards for cheaper suburbs?
More renters will move outward, and this is probably the biggest natural brake on how fast central Tokyo rents can rise.
The price gap is already large. REINS puts contracted condominium rent at ¥3,899 per square meter in the 23 wards, compared with ¥2,371 in the rest of Tokyo prefecture.
Yokohama and Kawasaki together were around ¥2,772. Saitama was roughly ¥2,089, while Chiba was about ¥2,274.
A renter does not have to leave the Tokyo labor market to access those savings. The metropolitan rail system makes it possible to live in Saitama, Chiba, western Tokyo or Kanagawa and still commute into major employment districts.
The interesting part is what happens next. Renters leaving expensive wards add demand to those cheaper areas, so the pressure begins spreading outward. REINS already shows year-over-year rent increases in several surrounding metropolitan markets.
That makes a sudden collapse in 23-ward demand less likely. Tokyo's rent pressure can diffuse geographically rather than disappear.
| Contracted condo rent/m² | Latest level | Discount vs 23 wards |
|---|---|---|
| Tokyo 23 wards | ¥3,899 | — |
| Yokohama/Kawasaki | ¥2,772 | 29% cheaper |
| Other Tokyo | ¥2,371 | 39% cheaper |
| Chiba | ¥2,274 | 42% cheaper |
| Saitama | ¥2,089 | 46% cheaper |
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Are Tokyo apartments still full enough for landlords to keep pushing rents?
Yes. Occupancy remains healthy enough that Tokyo landlords have little reason to panic and cut rents.
Advance Residence's latest disclosed occupancy rate for its Tokyo 23-ward portfolio was 95.1%.
The monthly history is useful here. Occupancy climbed to 96.4% during the spring leasing season, dropped back as the peak moving period ended, then returned to 95.1% in the latest available reading. The same portfolio stood at 94.6% one year earlier.
That is a fairly normal seasonal pattern rather than evidence of buildings suddenly emptying because rents have become impossible to pay.
At around 95% occupancy, landlords can still accept some vacancy while trying for a higher rent on the next lease. The strategy becomes especially attractive when the departing tenant was paying well below today's market.
If occupancy starts spending several months materially below its recent range while advertised rents remain elevated, we would have a stronger reason to worry about overshooting.
Currently, that warning has not appeared.
What are the first real signs that Tokyo rent growth is slowing?
Tokyo's rent boom is starting to lose some of its earlier speed, and the clearest warnings now come from small units, new buildings and weaker leasing volumes.
The latest AtHome data ended a 25-month streak of record asking rents for single-oriented condominiums in the 23 wards. Tokyo Kantei is also finding that properties less than five years old have had a harder time pushing rents higher than older stock.
Meanwhile, REINS recorded materially fewer completed rental transactions in the latest quarter even though tenants who did sign contracts paid more.
We have already seen above that some households are moving toward cheaper parts of the metropolitan area. Put these observations together and the market starts to look mature rather than euphoric.
Tenants still want Tokyo housing. They are simply becoming more selective about what they will sacrifice to get it.
Another year of rent growth looks quite plausible. Another year in which almost every segment repeatedly sets new records looks less plausible.
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What could actually make Tokyo rents fall?
Tokyo rents would probably need a real demand shock or a sustained supply boom before we would expect a broad decline.
A recession that hits hiring and household formation could do it. A sharp deterioration in Tokyo's population inflows would also weaken the rental market, particularly if foreign and younger domestic residents stopped arriving at the same pace.
Supply could eventually matter just as much. The latest housing-start numbers have improved substantially. If the rebound continues for several quarters and translates into a large wave of completed rental units, landlords would face much more competition.
Affordability can also produce localized declines without a citywide crash. Very expensive new apartments can overshoot. Small studios can reach their practical ceiling. Individual neighborhoods can suddenly receive too much new supply.
We are already seeing hints of that kind of resistance.
What we still do not see is a combination of falling population, surging vacancy, weak wages, rapidly rising completed supply and declining contracted rents. Until several of those conditions appear together, a broad Tokyo rent downturn remains the weaker scenario.
So, will Tokyo rents keep rising?
Yes. Tokyo rents are likely to keep rising for now, but we expect the next phase to be slower and much less uniform than the surge of the past two years.
The evidence still leans clearly upward. Tokyo Kantei's latest 23-ward rent index has reached a fresh one-year high. REINS contracted rents are roughly 5% higher per square meter than a year earlier. In our ward-level comparison, 22 of 23 wards had higher condominium rents. Tokyo's population is still growing, with the latest metropolitan estimate about 61,000 above a year earlier. Occupancy in a large institutional portfolio remains around 95%.
There is also unfinished repricing inside the existing housing stock. Many long-term tenants still pay below today's market rent, allowing landlords to capture another increase whenever those apartments turn over.
But the brakes are becoming much easier to see. Single-oriented condominium asking rents finally broke their 25-month record streak. The newest properties are having trouble pushing rents higher. Completed rental transactions have dropped. Tenants are moving farther out. Wage growth around 4% to 5% cannot comfortably finance repeated 8% to 10% rent increases.
The latest construction data add another reason to avoid an overly bullish forecast. Tokyo rental starts have rebounded, with the most recent monthly total up 14.4% from a year earlier. If that turns into a sustained building cycle, supply will eventually take some pressure out of rents.
Our base case is therefore continued nominal rent growth rather than a peak or broad decline. The strongest increases should increasingly concentrate in well-connected apartments, family-sized units with scarce local supply, and older leases being reset toward current market levels. Tiny apartments already near affordability limits and expensive new buildings have less room left.
Tokyo's rental boom still has somewhere to go. The period when landlords could assume almost every segment would move sharply higher, however, is starting to fade.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
Whether Tokyo rents will keep rising cannot be answered reliably from one rent index, one month of data, or a general impression of the city's housing market. We broke the question into separate dimensions and tested current rent momentum, geographic breadth, asking rents versus signed leases, affordability, tenant resistance, lease turnover, population and household demand, new supply, ownership costs, wages, outward movement and landlord occupancy.
We prioritized recent primary data and direct market evidence. Completed lease data were used to see what tenants are actually paying, while asking-rent and rent-index data helped identify changes appearing earlier in the pricing process. Official demographic and construction statistics were used for demand and supply, and institutional landlord disclosures were used to examine occupancy, renewals and rent resets that broad market data do not show as directly.
We also separated levels from momentum. High rents and high occupancy show that the market remains tight, while changes in small-unit pricing, transaction volumes, housing starts and outward migration tell us whether that tightness is strengthening or starting to ease. Year-over-year comparisons were used to reduce seasonal noise, while the latest monthly data helped identify newer turning points.
No single indicator determined the conclusion. We looked for agreement across independent datasets, and we also gave weight to the places where they diverged. That is why the base case is continued rent growth, but with a slower and increasingly uneven next phase rather than another broad acceleration.
Key rental sources include Tokyo Kantei's July 2026 condominium-rent report, AtHome's July 2026 asking-rent data, East Japan REINS for April-June 2026 rental transactions, and the matching April-June 2025 REINS report. These were used together because they capture different stages of the market rather than measuring the same thing.
For landlord behavior, we used Advance Residence's occupancy history, its January 2026 fiscal-period presentation, and its disclosure archive. For existing-tenant rent increases, we used Tokyo Metropolitan Government guidance on rent-increase disputes.
For demand and supply, key sources include Tokyo Metropolitan Government's August 2026 population estimate, the underlying Tokyo population statistical series, Statistics Bureau internal-migration data, Tokyo's June 2026 housing-start release, and MLIT's housing-start statistical series.
For the ownership and affordability side, we used Mitsui Fudosan Realty's Property Market Trends, Tokyo Kantei's standardized 70 m² resale-condominium price series, Tokyo Metropolitan Government's final 2026 spring wage-settlement survey, and Statistics Bureau population-census data. Together, these sources let us test whether rent growth is being supported by real demand and income conditions or simply extrapolated from headline asking prices.
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