What are the price trends and forecasts in Tasmania right now? (January 2026)

Tasmania's property market in 2026 is showing signs of steady recovery after the correction that followed the post-pandemic boom.

In this article, we break down what's happening with house prices in Tasmania right now, where values are heading, and which areas offer the best opportunities.

We constantly update this blog post with the latest data and insights so you always have the freshest information available.

And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Tasmania.

Who is the author of this content?

BAMBOOROUTES

A team specialized in real estate investing in APAC countries (Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, etc.).

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Tasmania. If you’d like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.

What are the current property price trends in Tasmania as of 2026?

What is the average house price in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the typical median house price in Tasmania sits at around A$690,000, which converts to approximately US$460,000 or €395,000 at current exchange rates.

When looking at price per square meter for residential properties in Tasmania, houses typically cost around A$3,700 per square meter (roughly US$2,480 or €2,110), while units average closer to A$5,200 per square meter due to their smaller sizes and often more central locations.

The realistic price range that covers about 80% of property purchases in Tasmania spans from roughly A$450,000 to A$950,000 (approximately US$300,000 to US$635,000, or €255,000 to €540,000), with Hobart properties clustering at the higher end and regional areas like the North West Coast offering more affordable entry points.

How much have property prices increased in Tasmania over the past 12 months?

Property prices in Tasmania have grown by approximately 5% over the 12 months to January 2026, marking a return to positive growth after the correction period of 2023 and early 2024.

The range of price increases varies across property types and locations, with regional Tasmania recording slightly stronger growth of around 6%, while Hobart has tracked closer to 4% to 5% depending on the specific segment.

The single biggest factor driving this price movement has been the persistent shortage of available housing stock, with total listings in Tasmania running more than 20% below year-ago levels according to recent market data.

Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Tasmania include Romaine on the North West Coast, Berriedale in Hobart's northern suburbs, and Bridgewater in the Derwent Valley corridor.

Romaine has recorded annual house price growth of nearly 15%, while Berriedale and Bridgewater have seen increases in the 8% to 12% range, significantly outpacing the statewide average of around 5%.

The main driver behind these fast-rising areas is their relative affordability compared to established suburbs, with median prices often sitting below A$500,000 and attracting first-home buyers and investors who have been priced out of more expensive locations.

By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Tasmania.

We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Australia. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.

Which property types are increasing faster in value in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the ranking of property types by value appreciation in Tasmania places units and villas at the top, followed by townhouses, and then detached houses which have shown more modest growth.

Units in Hobart have appreciated by approximately 5% to 6% over the past year, slightly outpacing houses which have grown by around 4% to 5% in the same period.

The main reason units are outperforming is affordability pressure, as buyers who cannot stretch to house prices are turning to the unit market, while tight rental conditions are also attracting investors seeking better yields.

Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:

• How much do properties cost in Tasmania?
• How much should you pay for a house in Tasmania?
• How much should you pay for lands in Tasmania?

What is driving property prices up or down in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the top three factors driving Tasmania's property prices are persistent housing supply constraints, extremely tight rental market conditions, and the interest rate environment which continues to limit borrowing capacity.

The single factor exerting the strongest upward pressure is the shortage of available housing stock, with advertised listings running significantly below historical averages and new construction completions unable to keep pace with underlying demand.

If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Tasmania here.

What is the property price forecast for Tasmania in 2026?

How much are property prices expected to increase in Tasmania in 2026?

As of early 2026, property prices in Tasmania are expected to increase by around 3% to 6% over the full calendar year, representing a continuation of the modest recovery that began in late 2024.

Forecasts from different analysts range from conservative estimates of around 2% (Westpac) to more optimistic projections of up to 7% to 10% under bullish scenarios (SQM Research), with most major bank forecasts clustering in the 2% to 4% range for Hobart.

The main assumption underlying most price forecasts is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold interest rates steady or begin modest cuts later in 2026, which would support buyer confidence without triggering a new boom.

We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Tasmania.

Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Tasmania in 2026?

As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Tasmania include Hobart's northern suburbs like Moonah, Glenorchy, and Bridgewater, along with affordable pockets in Launceston such as Newstead and Riverside.

These growth hotspots are projected to see price increases of 6% to 10% over the year, compared to the statewide average of 3% to 6%, driven by their relative affordability and improving infrastructure connections.

The primary catalyst driving expected growth is the combination of entry-level pricing and strong rental demand, which attracts both first-home buyers seeking affordability and investors chasing better yields than prestige suburbs can offer.

One emerging neighborhood that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is Sorell on Hobart's eastern fringe, which has been flagged by analysts as a suburb to watch given its affordable housing stock and proximity to the city.

By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Tasmania.

What property types will appreciate the most in Tasmania in 2026?

As of early 2026, units and villas in well-located suburbs are expected to appreciate the most in Tasmania, followed by entry-level detached houses in affordable growth corridors.

The projected appreciation for top-performing units in Hobart and Launceston sits at around 5% to 7% for the year, driven by their relative affordability compared to houses and strong rental yields that attract investors.

The main demand trend driving this appreciation is affordability constraints, as buyers who cannot afford detached houses at median prices of A$700,000+ are shifting to units priced closer to A$470,000.

Premium detached houses in prestige suburbs like Sandy Bay and Battery Point are expected to underperform in 2026, as higher interest rates continue to limit the pool of buyers who can afford these price points.

We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Australia versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.

How will interest rates affect property prices in Tasmania in 2026?

As of early 2026, current interest rate settings are acting as a stabilizing force on Tasmania's property prices, limiting rapid price gains but also preventing any significant downturn by supporting steady buyer demand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate stands at 3.60%, with mortgage rates for owner-occupiers typically ranging from 5.5% to 6.5%, and most analysts expect rates to remain stable or see modest cuts later in the year.

A 1% change in interest rates typically affects borrowing capacity by around 10% to 12%, which can translate to price movements of 5% to 8% in Tasmania over a 12-month period as buyers adjust their maximum purchase budgets.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Australia.

What are the biggest risks for property prices in Tasmania in 2026?

As of early 2026, the three biggest risks for property prices in Tasmania are unexpected interest rate increases if inflation proves persistent, a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown affecting employment, and potential oversupply in specific apartment segments of the Hobart market.

The risk with the highest probability of materializing is ongoing affordability pressure, where weak population growth combined with stagnant wages could limit the pool of buyers able to meet current price levels, potentially capping growth below forecasts.

We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Tasmania.

Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Tasmania in 2026?

As of early 2026, buying a rental property in Tasmania remains attractive for investors who target the right locations, as the state offers some of Australia's tightest rental conditions and relatively affordable entry prices compared to mainland capitals.

The strongest argument in favor of buying now is Hobart's vacancy rate of just 0.4%, the lowest of any Australian capital city, which virtually guarantees tenant demand and supports rental yields averaging 4.4% for houses and 4.8% for units.

The strongest argument for waiting is that price growth forecasts remain modest at 3% to 6%, meaning investors who buy at current levels may see limited capital appreciation in the short term if interest rates stay elevated longer than expected.

If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Tasmania.

You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Tasmania.

Where will property prices be in 5 years in Tasmania?

What is the 5-year property price forecast for Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Tasmania over the next 5 years is expected to fall in the range of 18% to 28%, representing steady compounding rather than any dramatic boom.

The range of 5-year forecasts spans from a conservative scenario of around 10% to 15% total growth (if rates stay higher for longer and population growth remains weak) to an optimistic scenario of 30% to 40% (if rates fall significantly and housing supply remains constrained).

The projected average annual appreciation rate over this period works out to approximately 3.3% to 5.0% per year, which is consistent with long-run Australian housing market performance.

The key assumption most forecasters rely on is that Tasmania's structural housing shortage will persist, as new construction cannot keep pace with underlying household formation, which provides a floor under price growth even in weaker demand scenarios.

Which areas in Tasmania will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?

The areas in Tasmania expected to deliver the best price growth over the next 5 years include Hobart's inner northern suburbs like Moonah and Glenorchy, family-oriented Launceston suburbs like Newstead and Riverside, and regional hubs in the North West such as Devonport and Burnie.

These top-performing areas are projected to see 5-year cumulative price growth of 25% to 40%, outpacing the statewide average of 18% to 28%, driven by their combination of relative affordability and improving amenity.

This differs somewhat from the shorter-term forecast because over 5 years, infrastructure improvements and gentrification effects have more time to play out, favoring suburbs where current prices don't yet reflect future livability upgrades.

One currently undervalued area with strong potential for outperformance is Kingston and Blackmans Bay in Hobart's south, which could benefit from the Tasmania JackJumpers basketball team's high-performance center confirmed for Kingborough Council.

What property type will give the best return in Tasmania over 5 years as of 2026?

As of early 2026, well-located units and villas in Hobart and Launceston are expected to give the best total return over 5 years in Tasmania, combining reasonable capital growth with strong rental yields.

The projected 5-year total return for this property type sits at around 45% to 60% when combining capital appreciation of 20% to 30% with cumulative rental income yielding 4% to 5% annually.

The main structural trend favoring units over the next 5 years is Tasmania's aging population and growing downsizer segment, who are selling large family homes and moving into low-maintenance strata properties closer to services.

For buyers seeking the best balance of return and lower risk over 5 years, entry-level detached houses in established suburbs with good schools offer the most stable option, as they attract consistent owner-occupier demand regardless of market conditions.

How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Tasmania over 5 years?

The top three major infrastructure projects expected to impact Tasmania's property prices over the next 5 years are the proposed Macquarie Point stadium in Hobart (valued at over A$1 billion), the Bridgewater Bridge replacement, and major renewable energy investments including the Marinus Link interconnector.

Properties near completed infrastructure projects in Tasmania typically see a price premium of 5% to 15% compared to similar properties in areas without new infrastructure, though this premium takes several years to fully materialize.

The neighborhoods likely to benefit most from these developments include Hobart's inner north and CBD fringe areas near Macquarie Point, Bridgewater and surrounding Derwent Valley suburbs near the new bridge, and North West Coast towns positioned to benefit from construction and operational jobs linked to energy projects.

How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Tasmania in 5 years?

Tasmania's projected population growth rate of around 0.5% to 1.0% annually over the next 5 years is below the national average, which means property demand will rely more heavily on household formation changes and lifestyle migration than on raw population growth.

The demographic shift with the strongest influence on property demand in Tasmania will be the aging population, as the state has Australia's oldest median age and a growing cohort of retirees seeking downsizing options and low-maintenance living.

Migration patterns, particularly domestic migration from mainland capitals seeking affordability and lifestyle, are expected to provide a modest but steady tailwind for Tasmania's property market, especially for lifestyle-oriented coastal and semi-rural areas.

Units and villas in Hobart and Launceston will benefit most from these demographic trends, along with lifestyle properties in scenic areas like the Huon Valley and East Coast that attract mainland tree-changers and retirees.

We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Australia compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.

What is the 10 year property price outlook in Tasmania?

What is the 10-year property price prediction for Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Tasmania over the next 10 years is expected to fall in the range of 35% to 60%, representing the compounding effect of steady annual appreciation.

The range of 10-year forecasts spans from a conservative scenario of 20% to 35% total growth (if Tasmania faces persistent economic challenges and weaker demand) to an optimistic scenario of 60% to 85% (if housing supply remains constrained and lifestyle migration accelerates).

The projected average annual appreciation rate over this decade works out to approximately 3.0% to 4.8% per year, which aligns with historical long-run Australian housing market returns.

The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year predictions for Tasmania is how effectively the state can attract and retain working-age population, as economic diversification and job creation will ultimately determine whether demand grows strongly or stagnates.

What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Tasmania?

The top three long-term economic factors that will shape property prices in Tasmania over the next decade are housing supply responsiveness (whether construction can meet demand), employment diversification (reducing reliance on government and tourism sectors), and demographic trends (population aging and household formation patterns).

The single factor with the most positive potential impact on property values is successful economic diversification, particularly growth in renewable energy, advanced manufacturing, and knowledge-based industries that would attract working-age migrants and boost incomes.

The single factor posing the greatest structural risk to property values is Tasmania's low labor force participation rate and weak jobs growth compared to other states, which could limit income growth and constrain buyer purchasing power over the long term.

You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Tasmania.

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Tasmania, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can and we don't throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.

Source	Why it's authoritative	How we used it
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) - Total Value of Dwellings	Australia's official statistics agency for housing data used across government.	We used it to anchor Tasmania's overall housing value level and recent trends. We cross-checked our market index numbers against these official aggregates.
ABS - National, State and Territory Population	The official population estimate series used by governments and economists.	We used it to quantify demand pressure from population change in Tasmania. We linked population momentum to housing demand projections.
Tasmania Treasury - Population Brief	Official Tasmanian Government publication citing ABS data.	We used it to pin down Tasmania's latest population level and growth rate. We cross-checked it against the ABS release for consistency.
ABS - Building Approvals	The standard leading indicator for future housing supply in Australia.	We used it to assess whether new supply will rise or stay constrained. We translated this into price growth implications for 2026 and beyond.
Tasmania Treasury - Building Approvals Brief	Official Tasmanian Government summary focused on state-level construction.	We used it to pull Tasmania-specific trend signals on housing supply. We used it as a second confirmation layer for supply constraints.
Reserve Bank of Australia - Monetary Policy Decision (Dec 2025)	The RBA sets the cash rate, the biggest driver of mortgage rates.	We used it to anchor the interest rate backdrop as of the first half of 2026. We mapped this rate environment to borrowing capacity in Tasmania.
RBA - Monetary Policy Decisions Index	Official archive of rate decisions and policy statements.	We used it to verify the policy path leading into 2026. We avoided relying on secondary media for rate settings.
Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) - Indices	Widely used hedonic home value index with documented methodology.	We used it as our main price movement yardstick for Tasmania. We used methodology notes to explain index-based estimates.
NAB - Hobart Property Market Insights (Nov 2025)	Major bank report using established data for lending decisions.	We used it to ground Hobart's late-2025 price level and house versus unit gap. We used its medians as a reality check for other sources.
Domain - House Price Report (Sep 2025)	Major Australian property research publisher with consistent methodology.	We used it for an additional median price benchmark for Hobart. We triangulated levels against index-based growth measures.
Domain - Rental Report (Sep 2025)	Widely cited rental reporting with consistent methodology across cities.	We used it to frame rental tightness in Hobart for investor demand analysis. We supported our rental property assessment with this data.
PropTrack - Home Price Index	Major Australian index producer (REA Group) with clear methodology.	We used it as a second independent pricing lens for Tasmania. We cross-checked growth direction between Hobart and regional areas.
Real Estate Institute of Tasmania (REIT)	Peak body representing real estate profession in Tasmania.	We used it to confirm Tasmania's regional differences and sales momentum. We used it as a Tasmania-specific triangulation layer.
SQM Research - Hobart Asking Prices	Long-running Australian housing analytics provider with published series.	We used it to capture near-real-time asking price momentum into 2026. We used it as a leading indicator alongside settled-sale metrics.
ABS - Average Floor Area of New Dwellings	Official ABS feature based on Building Activity data.	We used it to set reasonable size assumptions for price per square meter estimates. We kept our calculations defensible and consistent.
Tasmania Government - Macquarie Point Stadium Project	Official Tasmanian Government project document for major development.	We used it as an example of large infrastructure reshaping nearby suburbs. We supported our infrastructure discussion with official details.
ABC News - Hobart Stadium Decision	Australia's national public broadcaster with strong editorial standards.	We used it for timeline context around the stadium project decision process. We explained uncertainty and timing risk for nearby areas.
Housing Data Dashboard	Government-backed dashboard consolidating official housing supply indicators.	We used it to cross-check supply-side signals for construction activity. We supported our supply constraint messaging for 2026.
API Magazine - Tasmania Market Analysis	Respected Australian property investment publication with expert commentary.	We used it for suburb-level performance insights and investor sentiment. We incorporated analyst quotes on 2026 growth expectations.
OpenAgent - Best Areas in Tasmania	Major Australian real estate platform aggregating market data and forecasts.	We used it for additional analyst forecast ranges and suburb hotspot commentary. We cross-referenced growth projections with other sources.