Is right now a good time to buy a property in Tasmania? (2026)

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Australia Property Pack

Yes, the analysis of Tasmania's property market is included in our pack

Is it smart to buy now in Tasmania, or should I wait as of 2026?

Do real estate prices look too high in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, property prices in Tasmania appear fairly valued relative to fundamentals, sitting about 30% to 40% below the national average dwelling price of over AUD 1 million, which suggests Tasmania remains one of Australia's more affordable states for buyers.

One clear signal from listings data is that properties in Tasmania are selling within 30 to 45 days on average in Hobart, with well-priced homes in high-demand suburbs moving even faster, which indicates that current asking prices are generally aligned with what buyers are willing to pay.

Another supporting signal is that price reductions on Tasmania listings remain relatively modest compared to markets that experienced sharper corrections, suggesting sellers are not under extreme pressure to slash prices, which points to underlying market stability rather than overheating.

You can also read our latest update regarding the housing prices in Tasmania.

Does a property price drop look likely in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of a meaningful property price decline in Tasmania over the next 12 months is low, as supply remains constrained and demand is supported by interstate migration and tight rental conditions.

The plausible price change range for Tasmania in 2026 sits between a small decline of around 2% in a pessimistic scenario and growth of up to 7% in an optimistic scenario, with most forecasters expecting modest positive growth in the 2% to 5% range.

The single most important macro factor that could increase the odds of a price drop in Tasmania specifically would be a sharp rise in unemployment or a major economic slowdown, as Tasmania's economy is more sensitive to public sector employment and tourism than larger mainland states.

However, this risk appears limited given current conditions, as Tasmania's unemployment rate remains manageable and the RBA has signaled that further interest rate cuts are possible in 2026 if inflation continues to moderate, which would support buyer confidence rather than undermine it.

Finally, please note that we cover the price trends for next year in our pack about the property market in Tasmania.

Could property prices jump again in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of a renewed price surge in Tasmania within the next 12 months is medium, as the market is recovering from its correction phase but lacks the explosive drivers that fueled the 2020-2021 boom.

The plausible upside price change range for Tasmania in 2026 is between 3% and 7%, with some analysts like SQM Research suggesting growth could reach up to 10% in Hobart if interest rate cuts accelerate and buyer confidence strengthens.

The single biggest demand-side trigger that could drive prices to jump again in Tasmania specifically is a series of RBA interest rate cuts combined with continued mainland buyer migration, as more affordable borrowing costs would unlock pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.

Please also note that we regularly publish and update real estate price forecasts for Tasmania here.

Are we in a buyer or a seller market in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, Tasmania's property market is slightly seller-leaning, as limited housing stock and very low vacancy rates give sellers more leverage, though buyers can still negotiate in less competitive regional areas.

The estimated months-of-inventory in Tasmania is around three to four months in Hobart and slightly higher in regional areas, which sits below the six months typically considered balanced and means buyers face competition for well-priced properties while sellers can often achieve close to asking price.

The share of listings with price reductions in Tasmania remains relatively low at around 10% to 15% in Hobart, which suggests sellers still have reasonable leverage and are not being forced into significant discounts, though this varies by suburb and price point.

Are homes overpriced, or fairly priced in Tasmania as of 2026?

Are homes overpriced versus rents or versus incomes in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, homes in Tasmania appear fairly priced when comparing purchase costs to rents, but they feel stretched relative to local incomes, as Tasmania generally has lower median earnings than larger mainland states while housing costs have risen significantly since 2020.

The estimated price-to-rent ratio in Tasmania sits around 20 to 22 in Hobart, which is moderate compared to Sydney or Melbourne where ratios exceed 25, suggesting that buying is not dramatically more expensive than renting when viewed from an investment return perspective.

The estimated price-to-income multiple in Tasmania is around 7 to 8 times the median household income, which is above the 4 to 5 times historically considered affordable but remains lower than Sydney's multiple of 10 or more, positioning Tasmania as relatively accessible despite feeling expensive for many local buyers.

Finally please note that you will have all the indicators you need in our property pack covering the real estate market in Tasmania.

Are home prices above the long-term average in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, property prices in Tasmania sit slightly above their long-term average after recovering from the 2022-2024 correction, with Hobart dwelling values around 5% to 8% above the pre-pandemic trend line but still about 10% below the 2022 peak in inflation-adjusted terms.

The estimated recent 12-month price change in Tasmania is around 2% to 4%, which is below the long-run average growth pace of about 5% to 6% annually, indicating the market is in a stabilization phase rather than a boom or bust.

In inflation-adjusted (real) terms, Tasmania property prices in 2026 remain below the 2022 peak by roughly 8% to 12% depending on the area, which means buyers today are not purchasing at the absolute top of the market even though nominal prices have recovered somewhat.

What local changes could move prices in Tasmania as of 2026?

Are big infrastructure projects coming to Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the biggest infrastructure project with potential price impact in Tasmania is the approved $1.13 billion Macquarie Point Stadium in Hobart, which is expected to boost property values in surrounding inner-city suburbs by 5% to 15% over the next five years as the precinct develops into an entertainment and commercial hub.

The estimated timeline for the Macquarie Point Stadium shows that bulk excavation tenders were released in late 2025, lead builder selection is underway in early 2026, with construction expected to run until 2028 or 2029 when the Tasmania Devils AFL team begins playing home games at the venue.

For the latest updates on the local projects, you can read our property market analysis about Tasmania here.

Are zoning or building rules changing in Tasmania as of 2026?

The most important zoning change being discussed in Tasmania as of the first half of 2026 involves enabling medium-density residential developments in inner suburbs like Moonah and Glenorchy, which would allow townhouses and multi-unit developments in areas previously limited to single-family homes.

As of early 2026, the net effect of likely zoning changes on prices in Tasmania is expected to be modest and mixed, as increased density allowances could add supply and slightly temper price growth in affected suburbs while also increasing land values for properties with redevelopment potential.

The areas most affected by these rule changes in Tasmania are inner Hobart suburbs including Glenorchy, Moonah, and parts of the Kingston corridor, where property owners with larger blocks may see uplift in land value while buyers looking for established homes face competition from developers.

Are foreign-buyer or mortgage rules changing in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, foreign-buyer rules in Tasmania have tightened significantly with the Australian federal government's ban on foreign investors purchasing established dwellings from April 2025 to at least March 2027, which removes one source of buyer competition and may slightly ease pressure on certain price segments.

The most likely foreign-buyer rule change being considered is an extension of the established dwelling purchase ban beyond March 2027, with enhanced ATO enforcement and a crackdown on land banking by foreign investors who hold undeveloped land without building.

On the mortgage side, the most significant recent change is that the RBA held interest rates at 3.60% through late 2025, with further cuts expected in 2026, which would improve borrowing capacity for Australian buyers and support Tasmania property demand.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Australia.

Will it be easy to find tenants in Tasmania as of 2026?

Is the renter pool growing faster than new supply in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, renter demand in Tasmania is growing faster than new rental supply, as population growth of around 1.4% annually combines with very low vacancy rates while new housing construction remains below target by approximately 600 dwellings per quarter.

The best signal representing renter demand in Tasmania is continued interstate migration from mainland buyers and renters seeking lifestyle and affordability, with investor purchases from mainland states jumping over 40% in 2025 as people relocate or invest in Tasmania's rental market.

The pace of new completions in Tasmania remains constrained, with building approvals at their lowest levels in five years and actual completions struggling to match even modest population growth, which means the rental supply shortage is likely to persist through 2026.

Are days-on-market for rentals falling in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the estimated time-to-let for rentals in Tasmania is very short at around 10 to 14 days in Hobart and slightly longer in regional areas, reflecting the extreme tightness of the rental market and strong tenant competition for available properties.

The difference in days-on-market between best areas and weaker areas in Tasmania is noticeable, with premium suburbs like Battery Point, Sandy Bay, and inner Hobart seeing rentals leased within a week, while more remote regional towns may take three to four weeks.

One common reason days-on-market falls in Tasmania is the chronic undersupply of rental properties combined with seasonal demand spikes during university intake periods and summer tourism months, which creates urgent competition among tenants.

Are vacancies dropping in the best areas of Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, vacancy rates in the best-performing rental areas of Tasmania such as Battery Point, Sandy Bay, and North Hobart are dropping or holding at extremely low levels around 0.3% to 0.5%, which is well below the 3% considered a balanced market.

The current vacancy rate in these best areas is roughly half the overall Hobart rate of around 0.6%, and significantly lower than the national average of 1.2%, indicating that premium locations face even more acute rental shortages than the broader market.

One practical sign for landlords that the best areas in Tasmania are tightening first is the increasing number of rental applications per property, with popular listings in Battery Point or Sandy Bay often receiving 20 to 30 applications within days of listing, forcing landlords to choose from highly qualified tenant pools.

By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current rent levels in Tasmania.

Am I buying into a tightening market in Tasmania as of 2026?

Is for-sale inventory shrinking in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, for-sale inventory in Tasmania has declined by approximately 20% to 25% compared to the same time last year, as fewer sellers are listing properties while buyer interest has increased following market stabilization.

The estimated months-of-supply in Tasmania sits around three to four months in Hobart, which is below the six months typically considered balanced and indicates that buyers face a moderately competitive market where well-priced properties move quickly.

The single most likely reason inventory is shrinking in Tasmania specifically is that existing homeowners are reluctant to sell and lose their favorable mortgage rates locked in before 2022, combined with weak new construction failing to add sufficient fresh stock to the market.

Are homes selling faster in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the estimated median time-to-sell for homes in Tasmania is around 30 to 40 days in Hobart and 40 to 60 days in regional areas, with selling times speeding up compared to the slower conditions seen in 2023 and early 2024.

The estimated year-over-year change in median days-on-market for Tasmania shows an improvement of around 5 to 10 days faster than January 2025, indicating that buyer confidence has returned and properties are moving more efficiently through the market.

Are new listings slowing down in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, we estimate new for-sale listings in Tasmania are running approximately 15% to 20% below the same period last year, contributing to the inventory constraints that are supporting prices across the state.

The seasonal pattern for new listings in Tasmania typically shows a pickup in spring (September to November) and a slower period over summer holidays, but current January 2026 listing levels appear unusually low even accounting for seasonal factors.

The single most plausible reason new listings are slowing in Tasmania is seller caution, as many homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates in 2020-2021 are reluctant to sell and re-enter the market at higher borrowing costs, combined with general uncertainty about future price direction.

Is new construction failing to keep up in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, we estimate the gap between new housing completions and household demand in Tasmania is significant, with construction running approximately 600 dwellings per quarter below the target needed to keep pace with population growth and replace aging stock.

The recent trend in building approvals in Tasmania shows the lowest number of new build approvals in five years, with dwelling approvals declining in line with national trends but hitting Tasmania particularly hard given its already constrained housing supply.

The single biggest bottleneck limiting new construction in Tasmania is a combination of labor shortages in the building trades and restrictive planning processes, which extend approval timelines and increase costs, discouraging developers from starting new projects.

Will it be easy to sell later in Tasmania as of 2026?

Is resale liquidity strong enough in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, resale liquidity in Tasmania is moderately strong, with well-priced properties in desirable locations selling within 30 to 45 days, though overpriced listings or properties in less popular areas can take significantly longer to find buyers.

The estimated median days-on-market for resale homes in Tasmania is around 35 days in Hobart, which compares favorably to the 45 to 60 day benchmark typically considered healthy liquidity, indicating that sellers can expect reasonable turnover if priced appropriately.

One common property characteristic that most improves resale liquidity in Tasmania specifically is location within established suburbs close to Hobart's CBD, waterfront areas like Battery Point or Sandy Bay, or family-friendly suburbs with good school catchments, as these consistently attract multiple buyer segments.

Is selling time getting longer in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, selling time in Tasmania has actually decreased compared to the same period last year, with properties moving approximately 5 to 10 days faster as buyer confidence has improved and inventory constraints have intensified competition.

The current median days-on-market in Tasmania ranges from around 25 to 35 days for well-priced properties in Hobart up to 60 to 90 days for less desirable listings or regional properties that require more specific buyers.

One clear reason selling time can lengthen in Tasmania specifically is affordability pressure, as properties priced above $800,000 face a smaller buyer pool given Tasmania's lower median incomes, requiring longer marketing periods to find qualified purchasers.

Is it realistic to exit with profit in Tasmania as of 2026?

As of early 2026, the likelihood of selling with a profit in Tasmania given a typical holding period is medium to high, as properties held for five years or more have historically delivered positive returns even accounting for the 2022-2024 correction.

The estimated minimum holding period in Tasmania that most often makes exiting with profit realistic is around three to five years, which allows enough time for capital growth to offset transaction costs and absorb short-term market fluctuations.

The estimated total round-trip cost drag (buying plus selling costs) in Tasmania is approximately AUD 50,000 to 70,000 on a median-priced property, or around USD 32,000 to 45,000 / EUR 30,000 to 42,000, which includes stamp duty (unless exempt), legal fees, agent commissions, and marketing costs.

One clear factor that most increases profit odds in Tasmania specifically is buying below market value through motivated seller negotiations, targeting high-demand rental suburbs that offer both yield and capital growth, or purchasing in areas benefiting from confirmed infrastructure investments like the stadium precinct.

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Tasmania, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can and we don't throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.

Source	Why It's Authoritative	How We Used It
Australian Bureau of Statistics	Australia's official national statistics agency publishing rigorous residential market data	We used ABS data to benchmark Tasmania's average dwelling prices against national values. We also referenced their building approval statistics to assess construction trends.
Real Estate Institute of Tasmania	Tasmania's peak real estate industry body producing quarterly state-specific market reports	We used REIT quarterly reports to track recent sales activity, median prices, and vacancy rates. We extracted transaction volumes and price trends for both houses and units.
realestate.com.au	Australia's largest property platform aggregating current listings and sales data	We used their Tasmania portal to identify current median prices and listing volumes. We tracked days-on-market and price reduction patterns across different suburbs.
SQM Research	Independent property research firm providing vacancy rates and price forecasts	We used SQM data for Hobart vacancy rate tracking and future price forecasts. We referenced their inventory analysis for supply-demand assessments.
Cotality (formerly CoreLogic)	Leading property analytics company tracking dwelling values across Australia	We used Cotality data for suburb-level price growth analysis and historical trends. We referenced their best and worst performing suburb rankings.
TasCOSS Housing Indicators	Tasmania's peak social services body consolidating official housing affordability data	We used TasCOSS for vacancy rate context and rent growth statistics. We referenced their affordability metrics for price-to-income analysis.
Australian Taxation Office	Federal government agency administering foreign investment compliance	We used ATO announcements to explain the foreign buyer ban on established dwellings. We referenced their FIRB compliance guidance for foreign investor rules.
State Revenue Office Tasmania	Tasmanian government agency administering stamp duty and first home buyer exemptions	We used SRO data to explain the first home buyer stamp duty exemption up to $750,000. We calculated transaction cost estimates using their duty schedules.
Premier of Tasmania	Official government source for major policy and infrastructure announcements	We used Premier's office releases for Macquarie Point Stadium approval details. We referenced Bridgewater Bridge completion announcements and housing policy updates.
OpenAgent	Property platform compiling market forecasts from major banks and research firms	We used OpenAgent to cross-reference price forecasts from Westpac, NAB, and KPMG. We extracted rental yield and vacancy comparisons across Tasmania regions.
Rent.com.au	National rental platform tracking asking rents and listing supply	We used their rental market snapshots for Tasmania rent growth data. We referenced their supply tracking showing listing count changes year-over-year.
Tasmanian Planning Commission	Independent statutory authority assessing major development projects	We used Planning Commission reports for Macquarie Point Stadium assessment details. We referenced their recommendations and project impact findings.