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Is Phuket property becoming oversupplied?

Why are people suddenly worried about Phuket property oversupply?

Phuket property oversupply is a real concern now because unsold inventory grew much faster than the market could clear it after the huge 2023–2024 building boom.

The latest Krungsri Research review gives us the clearest picture. Phuket ended 2025 with 14,008 cumulative unsold residential units, up 33.3% in one year. Their combined value reached THB 193.7 billion, up 50.3%. Condominiums made up 12,346 of those unsold units and THB 112 billion of their value.

That is a much heavier backlog than Phuket had before developers accelerated construction. Colliers counted a record 14,718 new condominium units launched across 56 projects in 2024 alone. Krungsri then recorded another 7,205 residential launches in 2025.

Developers have clearly noticed the problem. Total launches dropped 52.6% in 2025, while condominium launches fell 55.4%. Even after that correction, however, 2025 launches were still around 1.8 times the 2019 level.

So the oversupply question is no longer coming from people simply seeing more cranes around Phuket. There is now a large measurable backlog sitting behind those cranes.

Does 14,000 unsold homes mean all of Phuket is oversupplied?

No. Phuket has too much property in several parts of the market, but the 14,008 unsold units do not mean every location and every type of property is struggling.

The easiest way to see the difference is to look at how long current stock would take to sell. Krungsri estimates roughly 30 months for Phuket condominiums, 42 months for housing estates and 50 months for villas at the recent sales pace.

Those are very different markets. A condo inventory lasting two and a half years is uncomfortable, especially when new projects are still coming, but Phuket condos have a broad foreign-buyer base and thousands of annual transactions. Villas are much more stretched. Fifty months means more than four years of inventory at the current pace.

Location matters just as much. Bang Tao and Cherngtalay continue attracting international buyers, major developers and luxury brands. Less distinctive projects elsewhere have a smaller pool of buyers and much less room to make mistakes on pricing.

There is enough evidence to call Phuket oversupplied in aggregate, but an island-wide label hides where the real pressure sits.

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Have Phuket developers slowed construction enough?

Phuket developers slammed on the brakes in 2025, but the latest numbers show they have not stopped adding supply.

After the record 2024 cycle, residential launches fell by more than half to 7,205 units. Condo launches dropped from roughly 14,500 units to 6,453. Developers were clearly trying to sell what they already had.

Then the direction changed again. CBRE's H1 2026 market update found that new condominium project launches increased 44.8% compared with H2 2025. Large listed developers were still leading the market.

That rebound deserves attention because only three condo projects, totaling 1,196 units, were completed during H1 2026. CBRE says several projects were delayed or were not ready for handover. Phuket therefore still has a sizeable pipeline sitting between launch and completion.

Villas look more disciplined. CBRE counted 16 new villa projects with only 224 units in H1 2026, compared with 397 units from 33 projects in H1 2025. The average project is small, and developers appear much more cautious after villa sales weakened.

The wildest part of the building boom has passed, but Phuket has not entered a genuinely low-supply cycle yet.

Are Phuket condos still selling fast enough?

Phuket condos are still selling, but current demand is no longer strong enough to make the inventory problem disappear.

The 2024 boom was unusually powerful. Colliers recorded 23,839 absorbed condominium units out of a cumulative inventory of 37,458 units by the end of that year, giving the market a 63.6% cumulative take-up rate.

The following year was much weaker. According to Krungsri, condominium sales fell 60.1% in 2025 to 4,758 units. Unsold condo inventory meanwhile rose 36.2% to 12,346 units.

That combination tells us more than either figure by itself. Developers cut launches dramatically, yet remaining stock still increased by more than a third because sales slowed even faster.

There is still plenty of demand for the right projects. CBRE says its Phuket residential sales in H1 2026 increased more than 45% from the same period a year earlier, with Bang Tao and Cherngtalay remaining its most sought-after condo locations. International buyers accounted for 67% of CBRE's Phuket purchasers during that period.

CBRE is heavily exposed to professionally marketed premium projects, so its sales book should not be treated as the entire island. It does show that strong projects can still move quickly while the broader condo market carries a substantial backlog.

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Are Phuket villas already oversupplied?

Yes. Phuket villas are the clearest part of the property market where supply has already run ahead of demand.

Krungsri recorded just 475 villa sales in 2025, down 69.6% from the previous year. Remaining villa supply jumped 56.4% to 2,043 units.

Monthly absorption collapsed from 6.3% to 1.8%. At that pace, Krungsri calculates that existing villa inventory would take around 50 months to sell, compared with only ten months a year earlier.

That deterioration happened remarkably quickly. Colliers estimates Phuket villa launches had climbed from 505 units in 2023 to 1,922 in 2024. Before 2022, annual villa launches had typically been below 100 units. Developers moved from a very small niche market into mass luxury development within only a few years.

The slowdown in new launches is encouraging, but it came after the stock had already been created. These days, buyers looking for a THB 15–35 million pool villa have far more choice than they did during the initial post-pandemic rush.

If Phuket is oversupplied, why are foreign buyers still buying?

Foreign buyers are still keeping Phuket property surprisingly liquid, especially at the premium end, but they are carrying more of the market than we would want to rely on indefinitely.

CBRE's latest Phuket sales data show international buyers making up 67% of purchasers in H1 2026. Buyers came from the UK, Russia, Canada, India, the US and several European countries.

Russia remains especially important. REIC data show Russians bought 383 Thai condominium units in Q1 2026, up 33% year on year, with transaction value rising 69% to THB 1.66 billion. Phuket produced the highest transaction value among provinces for Russian buyers.

The broader foreign market was going the other way. REIC recorded a 17.3% year-on-year fall in foreign condominium transfers nationwide during the same quarter. Chinese purchases dropped especially hard as China's domestic economy and capital constraints weakened demand.

Phuket has been protected by a different mix of buyers from Bangkok and several other Thai markets. Russian, European and Indian demand has replaced some of the Chinese demand that disappeared.

That makes the current Phuket market more resilient than the national foreign-transfer numbers suggest. It also leaves the island exposed to international demand that can shift quickly when currencies, air connectivity, geopolitical conditions or capital controls change.

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Is Bang Tao becoming too crowded with new Phuket property?

Bang Tao and Cherngtalay are carrying an extraordinary amount of Phuket's development, and this is now the island's most important local oversupply test.

C9 Hotelworks mapped 21,625 primary-market residential units in Cherngtalay, equal to about 48% of all Phuket units in its 43,481-unit dataset. Rawai, the second-largest area, had just 5,149 units.

Put differently, Cherngtalay alone had more than four times Rawai's primary-market supply.

More development is already locked in. C9's latest Bang Tao study identified nine new hotels and nine branded-residence projects from seven international brands scheduled between 2026 and 2030. Together they contain 1,640 hotel rooms and 1,649 branded residences.

Demand has kept pace better here than almost anywhere else on the island. CBRE still identifies Bang Tao and Cherngtalay as Phuket's most sought-after condo locations, and large projects continue recording sales. PEYLAA Phuket, Autograph Collection Residences, for example, passed SGD 28 million in sales during the first four months after opening its show residences.

Bang Tao is also becoming a larger year-round district, with new retail, international schooling and heavier commercial development rather than rows of isolated holiday projects.

That gives Bang Tao better fundamentals than the raw unit count suggests. Even so, almost half of Phuket's tracked primary residential supply sitting in one area is an extreme concentration. Mediocre projects will have a much harder time hiding behind the area's popularity now.

Are Phuket property prices starting to fall?

Phuket property prices have not broken sharply lower across the island yet, despite the growing oversupply.

That might sound surprising after a 33% jump in unsold inventory, but real-estate prices usually react slowly. Developers can protect headline prices with furniture packages, payment schedules, broker commissions, rental programs or temporary promotions. Private owners can simply wait longer before accepting a lower offer.

The composition of unsold inventory also matters. Krungsri found the value of unsold Phuket property rising 50.3%, much faster than the 33.3% increase in units. Higher-priced stock is therefore piling up disproportionately.

Land costs are another reason nominal prices remain sticky. Colliers' recent Phuket land research still describes Bang Tao and Cherngtalay as highly sought-after commercial locations, while Krungsri says rapidly rising land costs remain a challenge for developers. Cutting finished-property prices aggressively becomes harder when the development site itself was expensive.

Stable asking prices are not good evidence that oversupply is harmless. Sales velocity, incentives and inventory life are telling us more right now.

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Will Phuket resale owners have a harder time selling now?

Yes. Phuket resale owners are entering a much tougher market because every new completion creates more competition from both developers and other investors.

The buyers who purchased during the 2023–2024 rush are now gradually receiving completed units. Some will keep them. Others will rent them out or try to resell them.

At the same time, developers still have thousands of unsold units and can offer things an individual seller cannot easily match: staged payment plans, furniture, rental-management programs, international marketing teams and large broker commissions.

Age also becomes more visible when buyers have so much new stock available. A five-year-old unbranded condo with ordinary facilities can end up competing with a new project offering better common areas, newer interiors and an established hospitality brand only a short drive away.

We expect that gap to show first through longer selling periods and larger negotiation discounts rather than dramatic cuts to advertised prices.

Prime beachfront units, foreign-freehold units in buildings with limited resale stock and genuinely distinctive villas can behave very differently. Generic investor units have far less protection.

Can tourism and rents absorb Phuket's extra property?

Tourism and rental demand are still strong enough to support Phuket property, but current tourism growth is too slow to absorb unlimited new residential supply.

CBRE counted 4.39 million passenger arrivals at Phuket International Airport in H1 2026, down 1.4% from 4.46 million a year earlier. Hotel occupancy slipped 0.8 percentage points, while average daily rates increased only 0.9%.

Those numbers describe a very large tourism market that has stopped growing quickly for now.

C9 Hotelworks reached a similar conclusion from the full-year 2025 data. Phuket handled around 17.4 million airport passengers while the airport was already operating roughly 39% above its designed capacity. Visitor demand remained diversified despite a major decline in Chinese arrivals, helped by Russia, India and other markets.

The residential market also has a broader demand base than tourists alone. Phuket increasingly attracts long-stay residents, remote workers, retirees, families using international schools and second-home owners. That helps explain why residential demand can remain strong during a flatter tourism year.

Still, a buyer purchasing a rental condo today has to compete with a growing number of owners chasing the same tenants and holiday guests. Good rental demand can absorb a lot of property. It cannot make location, purchase price and future competition irrelevant.

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Are branded residences safer than ordinary Phuket condos?

Branded residences currently have an advantage in Phuket, but buyers should stop treating the word "branded" as proof of scarcity.

C9 Hotelworks estimates branded residences represent THB 112.6 billion of Phuket's THB 455 billion primary residential investment market. Non-branded projects still dominate the total value, but hospitality brands have become increasingly common at the premium end.

Buyers are paying for professional management, recognizable standards, amenities and confidence that the project will be run properly after completion. That matters more now because Phuket has so many competing developments.

Recent sales show that the model still works. CBRE says Phuket branded projects continue attracting strong demand, and PEYLAA's early sales are one example.

The problem is that branded residences themselves are multiplying. Bang Tao alone has 1,649 branded units scheduled across nine developments through 2030.

A Marriott, Banyan, Laguna or similar affiliation can make one project easier to sell than a generic condo next door. Once several branded schemes compete in the same corridor, buyers start comparing the brands, fees, unit sizes, views, legal structure and entry price just as aggressively.

Branding improves a project's odds. It no longer gives the project a free pass.

What could make Phuket's oversupply problem much worse?

Phuket's oversupply would become much more serious if new condo launches keep rising while sales stay weak and foreign demand begins to soften.

The first number we would watch is inventory life. Condos are around 30 months, housing estates around 42 months and villas around 50 months. Another meaningful increase would show that launch cuts are still not enough.

The second is new condominium supply. CBRE has just recorded a 44.8% increase in launches from H2 2025 to H1 2026. One half-year rebound does not create a new boom, but repeated increases would be difficult to justify while more than 12,000 condo units remain unsold under Krungsri's dataset.

Foreign demand is the third piece. Phuket is currently outperforming the weak national foreign-condo market because its buyer mix is different. A slowdown among Russian or European buyers would remove one of the island's biggest supports.

Then we have completions. Projects launched during the boom will continue reaching handover, adding rentals and resales even when developers announce fewer entirely new projects.

If those four things deteriorate together, the conversation would move quickly from selective oversupply toward genuine island-wide price pressure.

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What could make Phuket property absorb the excess supply instead?

Phuket can work through today's property backlog if developers keep launches under control while the island continues turning tourists into long-term residents and second-home buyers.

The first part is already happening in villas. H1 2026 villa launches fell to 224 units from 397 a year earlier, and projects have become smaller. Keeping that discipline for several years would give the existing inventory time to clear.

Phuket also has more structural demand than it did before the pandemic. C9 estimates the island's primary residential market at 43,481 units worth THB 455 billion, and its research increasingly describes Phuket as a residential and lifestyle hub rather than only a holiday destination.

Infrastructure can support that transition. Phuket airport is already operating beyond its intended capacity, expansion is planned, and districts such as Bang Tao are adding schools, retail, hotels and commercial activity alongside housing.

We should still be careful with that argument. New infrastructure does not magically sell an overpriced condo. It does expand the number of people who can plausibly live, work, study and spend several months a year on the island.

If demand keeps broadening while developers avoid another 2024-style launch frenzy, today's backlog can gradually shrink without requiring a property crash.

So, is Phuket property becoming oversupplied?

Yes. Phuket property is now oversupplied overall, although the problem is much worse in villas and generic projects than in the island's strongest condo and branded-residence developments.

The freshest numbers have made that conclusion easier to defend. Phuket finished 2025 with 14,008 unsold homes worth THB 193.7 billion. Sales fell sharply even after developers cut launches, and the inventory is expensive enough that its total value grew much faster than its unit count.

Villas have crossed the clearest line. As seen above, roughly 50 months of remaining supply at the current sales pace is already an oversupply problem, especially after annual villa construction exploded from fewer than 100 units historically to almost 2,000 units at the 2024 peak.

Condos sit in a less dangerous position. Roughly 30 months of inventory is heavy, yet foreign buyers are still active, Bang Tao and Cherngtalay continue recording strong demand, and CBRE's premium-project sales remain healthy.

What has changed is the amount of choice buyers have. Phuket developers can no longer assume that a pool, a tropical design and a foreign-investor pitch will be enough. Thousands of units now compete for the same international buyers, tenants and future resale purchasers.

That makes the current Phuket market much harsher on ordinary projects than the boom years were. Good property can still sell extremely well. The average project has lost that protection.

Our answer is therefore mostly yes: Phuket has entered an oversupplied phase, with villas already clearly beyond equilibrium and condominiums carrying enough inventory to create serious competition. We do not see evidence of an island-wide property crash today. We do see a market where developers built ahead of demand and buyers can finally afford to be picky.

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Fact-checked and reviewed by our local expert

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Attaya Suriyawonghae 🇹🇭

Real Estate Broker, Zest Real Estate

Attaya is a certified Thai Real Estate Broker who knows the Phuket market inside and out. With years of experience, she can guide you through the intricacies of the island's vibrant real estate scene, whether you're seeking a luxurious beachfront villa or a high-growth investment opportunity. After speaking with her, we reviewed the blog post, corrected a few points, expanded on others, and added her personal experience.

Who is the author of this content?

BAMBOOROUTES

A team specialized in real estate investing in APAC countries (Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, etc.).

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Phuket. If you’d like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.