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SUMMARY
Yes, buying a new Bangkok condo can still be worth it, but only selectively. The market no longer rewards buyers for simply choosing a new project in a good-looking location and assuming appreciation will do the rest.
Bangkok’s current weakness is unusual because it has not produced a broad price collapse. Roughly 28.3% of Colliers’ surveyed condo stock remained unsold in Q1 2026, yet official price indices were still positive and developers were often giving ground through incentives rather than obvious list-price cuts.
The improvement in launch sales is real, but it partly reflects developers becoming more disciplined. New supply has been cut sharply, project sizes are smaller, and launches are increasingly concentrated in areas where demand can already be identified.
That makes headline absorption rates easier to misread. A 50% launch sales rate in a tightly controlled pipeline does not mean Bangkok buyers have suddenly regained strong purchasing power across the board.
The clearest divide is between scarce, differentiated stock and interchangeable stock. Completed downtown and luxury projects are selling very well, while ordinary projects still compete with a large tail of unsold inventory.
For investors, the effective purchase price matters more than the brochure price. Cash rebates, transfer-cost support and realistic furniture value can change the economics materially, while inflated “free package” values often do not.
Rental yield can still make a Bangkok condo work, but the purchase price does most of the heavy lifting. The same THB30,000 monthly rent produces a much better investment at THB6 million than at THB7 million, and net returns fall further after vacancy, fees, repairs and management.
Newness alone is not enough to justify a premium over resale. A completed building can reveal rental depth, resale liquidity, management quality and how the project actually ages, while an off-plan buyer is still underwriting those risks in advance.
Being near a BTS or MRT station is increasingly a baseline feature rather than a unique investment edge. Existing offices, universities, hospitals, retail and dense neighborhoods matter more than a station surrounded mainly by competing new towers.
The biggest hidden risk is replaceability. A buyer should worry less about whether Bangkok has “too many condos” in the abstract and more about whether hundreds of nearly identical units will compete for the same tenants and resale buyers after completion.
The practical conclusion is simple: do not wait for Bangkok itself to crash, and do not buy new just because the project is new. Buy only when the effective price is hard to beat nearby, rental demand already exists, the unit has limited direct competition and the deal still works if condo prices go nowhere for several years.
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Why is buying a new Bangkok condo harder to justify now?
Buying a new Bangkok condo can still be a good deal today, but the average new project no longer gives us enough upside to buy almost blindly.
The awkward part is that Bangkok currently has a weak broad housing market without the dramatic condo discounts we might expect from one. Colliers counted 214,849 condominium units in its Bangkok market universe in Q1 2026, with 28.3% still unsold. That works out to roughly 61,000 available units. Yet developers have largely held their advertised prices and competed through promotions instead.
At the same time, some parts of Bangkok are selling extremely well. CBRE found that completed downtown condominium projects were 93% sold during the first half of 2026, while completed luxury projects were 95% sold.
New launches have also recovered from their post-pandemic low. Knight Frank calculated a 51.7% launch-period sales rate in Q2 2026, compared with only 8.3% in Q1 2024.
The catch is how that recovery happened. Developers cut the number and size of launches and became much more selective about where they build. Knight Frank itself says the improvement still does not show a broad recovery in purchasing power.
That leaves us with a very uneven Bangkok condo market. Strong projects can sell quickly while ordinary developments compete with large amounts of unsold stock. Whether buying new is worth it now depends much more on the exact project and entry price than it did during stronger market cycles.
| Bangkok condo indicator | Recent reading | What we learn from it | Buyer's takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colliers cumulative take-up | 71.7% | Most surveyed supply has sold | A large tail of inventory remains |
| Unsold share | 28.3% | Around 61,000 surveyed units remain | Buyers still have choice |
| Q2 new-launch sales rate | 51.7% | Launch absorption has improved sharply | Recovery partly reflects less supply |
| Completed downtown sales rate | 93% | Good completed projects are tight | Bangkok cannot be treated as one market |
| Completed luxury sales rate | 95% | Scarce prime stock remains strong | Quality is increasingly decisive |
Are Bangkok condo prices finally getting cheaper?
Bangkok condo prices are still holding up surprisingly well, so anyone waiting for a citywide new-condo fire sale is still waiting.
The Bank of Thailand's Bangkok-and-vicinity condominium price index reached 204.3 in July 2026, up from 197.2 a year earlier. That is an increase of roughly 3.6%.
REIC's index for new condominiums currently being offered by developers also rose in Q2 2026. The increase was 1.6% year on year and 0.6% from the previous quarter.
Those datasets measure different things, so we should not pretend they are identical. The Bank of Thailand relies heavily on mortgage transaction data and adjusts for property characteristics. REIC follows prices on unsold new developer inventory. Both nevertheless point in the same direction: Bangkok condos have avoided a broad nominal price correction so far.
The softer market is showing up elsewhere.
Colliers says developers are preserving headline selling prices through promotional packages rather than straightforward cuts. A unit advertised at THB6 million may therefore come with a cash rebate, transfer-cost support, furniture or other concessions that bring the buyer's real cost down.
For us, that effective cost now matters far more than the brochure price. Bangkok developers have good reasons to defend official price lists, including protecting previous buyers and comparable valuations. Some of the real negotiation is happening behind those published numbers.
| Bangkok price measure | Recent change | What it captures | What it does not tell us |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOT condo price index | ~+3.6% YoY | Mortgage-linked transaction pricing | Developer incentives |
| REIC new-condo index | +1.6% YoY | Unsold new developer units | Resale bargaining |
| REIC quarterly change | +0.6% QoQ | Latest new-build movement | Net price after freebies |
| Developer list prices | Mostly defended | Public asking price | Actual negotiated cost |
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Has demand for new Bangkok condos really come back?
Demand for new Bangkok condos has clearly improved, but buyers have not suddenly flooded back into the market.
Knight Frank's launch data make that distinction quite clear.
Bangkok developers launched 35,761 condominium units in 2023, and 10,155 were reserved within their launch quarters. That produced a launch-period sales rate of 28.4%. By Q1 2024, the rate had collapsed to just 8.3%.
Developers then changed strategy.
Only 17,409 units entered Knight Frank's dataset in 2025, less than half the 2023 total. Of those, 8,980 were reserved during their launch quarters, pushing the rate back to 51.6%.
During the first half of 2026, developers introduced 8,501 units and secured reservations for 3,994 during the relevant launch quarters, equivalent to 47%. Q2 alone reached 51.7%.
That sounds like a booming recovery until we look at the denominator. The number of units being pushed onto the market has been cut drastically, and developers are concentrating launches in places where demand is easier to identify.
Colliers saw a similar shift. More than 80% of its Q1 2026 new supply was priced below THB100,000 per square metre. Developers are clearly trying to meet the market where buyers still have purchasing power.
Bangkok today looks more like a better-managed supply market than a suddenly hot demand market. That is good for developers and existing owners, but it gives new buyers less reason to assume that strong launch percentages will automatically turn into fast resale gains.
| Period | New units | Launch-quarter reservations | Launch sales rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 35,761 | 10,155 | 28.4% |
| Q1 2024 | — | — | 8.3% |
| 2025 | 17,409 | 8,980 | 51.6% |
| H1 2026 | 8,501 | 3,994 | 47.0% |
| Q2 2026 | — | — | 51.7% |
Does Bangkok still have too many unsold condos?
Bangkok still has enough unsold condos to hurt mediocre projects, although calling the whole city oversupplied hides where the real risk sits.
The useful number here is Colliers' 28.3% unsold share in Q1 2026. A market where almost three units out of ten in the surveyed stock remain available plainly gives buyers plenty of alternatives.
The inventory is also badly distributed.
Colliers reported slower absorption in inner-city and higher-priced segments, while well-positioned projects continued to perform better. Meanwhile, CBRE's prime completed projects were already close to fully sold.
Developers are reacting accordingly. No new CBD project appeared in Colliers' Q1 launch data, and more than 79% of new supply came from major listed developers. Knight Frank has also seen launches shift toward suburban locations and transit-extension corridors where developers can find clearer demand.
For a buyer, local competition matters far more than a Bangkok-wide inventory number.
A 400-unit development with an unusual product beside established offices may have very little effective competition. A 1,500-unit tower surrounded by five similar projects can face intense competition even if the district itself looks popular.
We therefore look closely at how replaceable the unit will be. Ten nearby buildings offering almost the same one-bedroom apartment to the same tenant profile worry us much more than an abstract claim that Bangkok has "too many condos."
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Is a brand-new Bangkok condo actually better than a resale one?
For investment value, a new Bangkok condo often has to prove why it deserves to cost more than a good resale unit.
A completed condo gives us information that an off-plan project simply cannot provide yet. We can inspect the actual unit, hallways, elevators and common areas. We can see whether the building has aged well, whether management is competent and whether owners are maintaining it properly.
The rental market is visible too. We can check how many comparable apartments are currently listed, what landlords are asking and whether units disappear quickly or sit online for months.
Resale listings also expose the building's liquidity. If several owners have been trying to exit the same project for a long time, that tells us something useful before we buy.
New developments have real advantages. We get modern layouts, newer mechanical systems, fresh facilities, more attractive payment schedules and little immediate refurbishment work. A good developer can also build something meaningfully better than the surrounding older stock.
The problem comes when the premium reflects newness more than actual improvement.
If a five-year-old condo nearby costs THB140,000 per square metre and the new building asks THB190,000, we need to understand what justifies that 36% difference. A better lobby and newer gym are rarely enough.
Today, we would rather buy a strong completed building below replacement cost than pay a large premium for an ordinary new project whose future rent and resale liquidity remain untested.
Are Bangkok condo promotions giving buyers real bargains?
Bangkok condo promotions can make a new project much more attractive these days, but some incentives are worth far less than the number printed beside them.
Suppose a developer asks THB6 million for a condo and advertises a THB500,000 promotional package.
If that package consists of a THB250,000 cash rebate, THB100,000 of transfer-cost support and THB150,000 worth of furniture we genuinely planned to buy, the economic discount could come fairly close to THB500,000.
The calculation changes if the developer labels a furniture package as THB250,000 when we could source comparable items ourselves for THB100,000.
That is why we convert every promotion into a realistic cash value.
Direct price reductions and rebates rank highest. Transfer-cost contributions can also be measured easily. Free furniture, appliances, guaranteed-rent packages and other extras deserve more skepticism.
Colliers' current observation that developers are defending official prices through incentives makes this especially relevant. The published price may tell us less about today's negotiating environment than it did in a strong seller's market.
A new condo priced at THB180,000 per square metre can become interesting at an effective THB160,000. It can remain overpriced at THB175,000 even after a sales agent tells us we received THB500,000 of "free" items.
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Can Bangkok condo rent still make the investment work?
Bangkok condo rents can still produce decent returns, although a weak purchase price can destroy those returns surprisingly fast.
Global Property Guide's latest Bangkok dataset puts the average gross apartment yield at roughly 5.9%, with big differences between neighborhoods and unit types.
Its observed one-bedroom yields were around 4.24% in Pathum Wan, 5.57% in Watthana, 5.66% in Khlong Toei, 6.67% in Huai Khwang and 6.89% in Chatuchak.
The pattern is intuitive. Central prime locations cost much more to buy, while rents do not increase at the same rate.
Take a condo costing THB7 million and renting for THB30,000 per month. Annual rent of THB360,000 produces a gross yield of 5.14%.
Pay THB6 million for the same rental income and the gross yield rises to 6%.
That THB1 million difference changes the investment more than most optimistic forecasts about Bangkok rental growth.
Actual returns also come in below the gross number. Common fees, repairs, vacancy periods, letting commissions, insurance and management all take a bite. Global Property Guide estimates that net yields can commonly sit around 1.5 to 2 percentage points below gross yields.
Unit size creates another big difference. Its Bangkok-wide data show studios and one-bedroom units producing much stronger percentages than large luxury apartments. Purchase prices rise quickly with size, while rent rarely keeps pace.
We would still be careful with ultra-small investor units. A tiny apartment inside a building containing hundreds of virtually identical units may offer a nice spreadsheet yield before completion and a nasty price war once every owner starts looking for tenants.
The sweet spot is usually a compact but genuinely livable unit in a location where people already want to live.
| Bangkok example | Approx. gross yield | What is driving it |
|---|---|---|
| Pathum Wan, 1 bedroom | 4.24% | Very high purchase prices |
| Watthana, 1 bedroom | 5.57% | Strong rents with premium pricing |
| Khlong Toei, 1 bedroom | 5.66% | Similar central-market economics |
| Huai Khwang, 1 bedroom | 6.67% | Lower entry prices |
| Chatuchak, 1 bedroom | 6.89% | Better price-to-rent relationship |
| Bangkok average | ~5.9% | Broad mix of locations and sizes |
Why are luxury Bangkok condos doing so much better?
Luxury Bangkok condos are unusually strong right now because the best projects are selling scarcity rather than another interchangeable apartment.
CBRE's first-half 2026 figures are striking. Completed downtown projects were around 93% sold, and completed luxury projects reached 95%.
The pipeline is more mixed. Downtown projects still under development averaged a 52% sales rate, while pipeline super-luxury projects reached a much stronger 85%.
CBRE also reported more than THB2 billion in condominium sales in Central Lumpini during Q2 alone. Projects contributing to recent high-end activity include The Residences at Dusit Central Park, ONE89 Wireless, EL8HTEEN SEVEN and Scope Langsuan.
Locations such as Wireless Road, Langsuan and the Lumpini Park perimeter have characteristics developers cannot reproduce by building farther down a train line. The land itself is scarce, surrounding amenities are already established and international buyers recognize the addresses.
That gives the strongest luxury buildings a much better defense against generic oversupply.
We still would not assume every THB20 million or THB30 million new condo deserves its price. Expensive units usually generate lower rental yields and rely on a smaller resale pool. High common fees can add another drag.
The projects doing well currently tend to have something genuinely hard to copy: exceptional land, park frontage, a major mixed-use setting, distinctive architecture, unusually large units or a brand that attracts buyers well beyond Thailand.
Putting marble in a generic tower does not create scarcity.
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Are foreign buyers still propping up Bangkok condos?
Foreign buyers remain important to Bangkok condos, but current foreign demand is much patchier than it was during the strongest overseas-buying cycles.
REIC recorded 3,241 foreign condominium transfers across Thailand in Q1 2026. That was down 17.3% from a year earlier. Transfer value fell 17.9% to THB13.46 billion.
The weakness was heavily influenced by China. Chinese buyers still ranked first, but their purchases fell to 906 units, down 38.8%, while transaction value dropped 42.9%.
Russia moved the other way. Russian purchases rose 33% to 383 units and transaction value jumped 68.7%.
Bangkok still captured THB6.14 billion of foreign condo transaction value in that quarter, around 45.6% of the national foreign total.
The high-end Bangkok market looks stronger again. CBRE says foreigners made up 32% of its downtown condominium buyers during the first half of 2026, compared with 68% for Thai buyers. Japanese, British, Taiwanese and Russian purchasers were among the active groups.
That diversity is useful. A building that can attract Thai buyers plus several foreign nationalities has a healthier resale pool than a project designed almost entirely for one overseas market.
Foreigners also have a structural reason to focus on condos: qualifying units can be owned directly freehold, subject to Thailand's 49% foreign ownership limit by aggregate condominium area.
That quota deserves checking before we buy. A foreign-popular building can become awkward if available foreign quota is tight, because future overseas buyers may have fewer units they can legally acquire as foreign freehold.
So we still value foreign-freehold eligibility, especially in central Bangkok. We just would not confuse legal accessibility with investment quality.
Are easier mortgage rules helping Bangkok condo buyers now?
Thailand's easier mortgage rules are supporting the property market, but the Bank of Thailand's own reasoning shows how fragile broad housing demand still is.
The central bank has extended temporary LTV relaxation for another year. For qualifying housing loans, the regulatory ceiling can reach 100% for second and subsequent homes below THB10 million and for homes of THB10 million or more from the first contract onward.
The Bank of Thailand explicitly said that the measure is intended partly to help reduce high accumulated housing inventory. It also noted that financial conditions remain tight, lenders are cautious and there is currently no clear sign of excessive property speculation.
That context is more useful than the headline "100% LTV."
A regulatory ceiling does not mean every buyer receives a 100% mortgage. Banks still decide whether the borrower can actually repay it.
Colliers continues to cite elevated mortgage rejection rates, household debt and weak purchasing power as constraints on the mass market. REIC also reported that new housing launches across Bangkok and surrounding provinces dropped 31.1% year on year in Q1 2026.
For cash buyers, this can actually create negotiating power. A purchaser who can complete reliably is valuable to a developer operating in a market where many potential customers struggle to secure financing.
We would use that advantage at the negotiating table rather than treat easier LTV rules as proof that another condo boom is starting.
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Is buying near a BTS or MRT station still enough?
A Bangkok condo being near the BTS or MRT helps a lot, but today it is closer to an entry requirement than a special investment advantage.
Almost every new condo pitch seems to contain a station distance. That alone tells us very little about who will rent or eventually buy the unit.
A station next to established office towers, a university, a hospital cluster, major retail or a dense existing neighborhood can generate demand every day.
A station surrounded mainly by newly built condos creates a different setup. Thousands of landlords can end up chasing the same commuters.
This becomes even more important on newer transit corridors. Colliers says developers have been focusing heavily on suburban rail routes because land prices allow them to build cheaper products for the remaining mass-market demand.
That strategy can work very well in locations where communities and jobs already exist. It becomes much more speculative when the investment case depends on future offices, future malls, future population growth and future infrastructure all arriving as expected.
We therefore give much more weight to an operating station in an already busy neighborhood than to a future line on a sales-gallery map.
The train should improve an existing reason to live there. It should not be the only reason.
Should buyers wait for a Bangkok condo crash instead?
Waiting for a huge Bangkok condo crash looks less attractive today than patiently waiting for one overpriced seller or developer to give us a much better deal.
As seen above, official condo price indices remain positive even though demand is hardly booming. Developers have also shown that they prefer incentives, smaller launches and slower project pipelines to aggressive headline price cuts.
That makes a classic citywide crash harder to time.
The market can stay soft for years while good buildings remain expensive and weaker buildings quietly become cheaper through promotions, resale negotiations and owner distress.
A buyer looking at five comparable buildings may therefore get the opportunity long before an official Bangkok index turns sharply negative.
Imagine three similar units priced at THB7.0 million, THB6.8 million and THB6.7 million. If one owner suddenly needs liquidity and accepts THB5.9 million, that single transaction may create the entry point we were waiting for even though the Bangkok condo index barely moves.
This is where today's large stock of existing condos becomes useful. We have far more alternatives than a buyer committed to one pre-launch development.
For now, we would wait for the right unit rather than wait for Bangkok itself to crash.
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What can go most wrong with a new Bangkok condo?
The nastiest risk with a new Bangkok condo is ending up with a unit that hundreds of other owners can replace almost perfectly.
This tends to appear after completion, when the glossy launch period is over and owners start competing in the real rental and resale markets.
Imagine a 1,200-unit project containing 400 almost identical one-bedroom apartments. If dozens reach the rental market together, a tenant may see units at THB25,000, THB23,000, THB22,000 and THB21,500 with only minor differences between them.
The owner who needs a tenant fastest starts setting the market.
Resale works the same way. Twenty similar listings give buyers little reason to pay up for ours. The most motivated seller can drag comparable asking prices lower.
This is why a huge project can still be risky even beside a popular BTS station.
We look at the number of units, the concentration of particular layouts, nearby competing buildings and how many owners appear to be investors rather than residents. Corner apartments, genuinely good two-bedroom layouts, rare views and unusual floor plans often have more protection than the project's most common unit type.
Marketing brochures usually talk about Bangkok land scarcity. We care more about unit scarcity.
When is a new Bangkok condo actually worth buying?
A new Bangkok condo is worth buying when the deal already works at today's price and rent, without requiring us to predict a big property boom.
The first test is the effective purchase price. We compare the developer's net price after realistic incentives with completed resale condos nearby and with competing new developments.
Then we check rent. If the investment only looks attractive after assuming aggressive rent growth or perfect occupancy, we move on.
Location needs existing demand. Offices that already employ thousands of people are more convincing than a future commercial district on a rendering. The same goes for operating universities, hospitals, schools, retail and transport.
Developer quality matters too. We want a history of completed buildings that still look good several years later, competent juristic management and projects where facilities are large enough for the number of units.
For a foreign buyer, we also check foreign-freehold availability, the quota position and the paperwork needed to bring purchase funds into Thailand correctly.
At the luxury end, we can accept lower yields when the property has real scarcity. Prime park views, rare freehold plots, exceptional frontage or a genuinely prestigious address can support value in ways that a generic new tower cannot.
A normal new condo needs to win mainly on price and rental economics. A genuinely exceptional condo can also win on scarcity.
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So, is buying a new Bangkok condo still worth it?
Yes, buying a new Bangkok condo can still be worth it today, but we would reject far more projects than we would buy.
The latest evidence gives us little reason to make a broad bullish call on new Bangkok condos. Developers are selling a much smaller and more carefully targeted pipeline, domestic purchasing power remains constrained, mortgage problems have not disappeared and a substantial pool of unsold inventory still gives buyers alternatives.
At the same time, waiting for a broad collapse has not worked either. Official prices are still edging upward, and developers are often giving ground through incentives rather than dramatic advertised cuts.
Prime Bangkok adds another wrinkle. Completed luxury projects are selling extremely well, showing that buyers still pay up when the location and product are genuinely scarce.
For an ordinary investor, the bar should therefore be high.
If a developer wants a large premium over comparable completed condos, we would usually pass. If the expected net yield is weak, we would pass. If hundreds of identical units will compete for tenants after completion, we would pass. And if the whole investment case rests on a future train line, future mall or future capital appreciation, we would pass again.
The deals we like look different. The effective price is hard to beat nearby, rental demand already exists, the unit has relatively little direct competition, the developer has a strong record and the numbers still make sense if Bangkok condo prices go nowhere for several years.
That is the clearest answer currently: Bangkok still has new condos worth buying, but simply buying new in Bangkok is no longer a convincing strategy.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether buying a new Bangkok condo is still worth it under current market conditions. Because the answer changes materially by project, price, rental economics, buyer profile and local competition, we broke the question into separate analytical dimensions rather than relying on broad sentiment about Bangkok property.
For each dimension, we prioritized recent evidence that could actually change the investment conclusion. Bank of Thailand and Real Estate Information Center data were used for condo prices, housing supply, foreign transfers and mortgage policy. CBRE, Colliers and Knight Frank were used to examine launch absorption, completed-project sales, luxury performance, developer strategy and the distribution of unsold inventory.
We did not treat strong absorption, positive price indices or foreign demand as standalone verdicts. Launch sales rates were read alongside the sharp reduction in new supply; official price movements were read alongside incentives and unsold stock; and prime luxury performance was kept separate from conditions in the wider condo market.
Rental economics were assessed using current price-to-rent evidence rather than assuming that capital appreciation would rescue a weak deal. Global Property Guide was used as a live market reference for neighborhood-level gross yields, with the usual caution that asking-price and asking-rent data are not the same as completed transaction data.
For foreign buyers, we also separated legal accessibility from investment quality. Thailand's condominium foreign-ownership framework and foreign quota rules were treated as transaction constraints to check, not as reasons on their own to buy a project.
The final judgment comes from where these different pieces of evidence converge. We looked for projects where effective purchase price, existing rental demand, unit scarcity, developer quality and resale competition already support the deal without requiring a major Bangkok property boom.
Key sources used for this analysis include: Bank of Thailand residential property price data, REIC's Q2 2026 new condominium price index, Colliers' Bangkok Condominium Market Q1 2026, Knight Frank's analysis of Bangkok launch sales rates, CBRE's Bangkok luxury condo market update, REIC's Q1 2026 foreign condominium transfer data, Bank of Thailand guidance on the temporary LTV relaxation, Thailand Government guidance on foreign condominium ownership, Department of Lands guidance for foreign condominium registration, and Global Property Guide's Bangkok rental yield data.
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