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SUMMARY
Yes. Bangkok’s condo market is genuinely oversupplied today, but it is slowly correcting rather than heading toward a citywide crash.
The clearest number is not the exaggerated 300,000-plus figures sometimes repeated online. The main project-level surveys put unsold condo stock at roughly 60,000 to 61,500 units, which is already more than enough to show a serious inventory overhang.
The bigger problem is persistence. Colliers still has 28.3% of tracked Bangkok condo supply unsold, only modestly better than roughly 31% two years earlier, despite developers sharply reducing new launches.
Developers have already done a lot of the painful adjustment. Annual launches fell from 35,761 units in 2023 to about 17,400 in 2025, and one quarter in 2025 saw barely 400 new units reach the market.
Sales are improving, but partly because developers changed what they launch. New projects are smaller, more affordable and concentrated in places where demand already exists, so a better launch-period sales rate does not mean the whole buyer pool suddenly doubled.
Mortgage access remains the main weakness in the mass market. A buyer can reserve a ฿2 million or ฿3 million unit and still fail to complete the transfer if the bank rejects the loan, which makes presales look healthier than actual cash completion.
Bangkok’s oversupply is also highly segmented. Prime luxury projects can reach sales rates above 90%, while ordinary expensive condos and mortgage-dependent suburban projects can remain stuck for completely different reasons.
Prices have not crashed because the adjustment has happened through fewer launches, smaller projects, promotions, rebates and extras rather than broad headline price cuts. In practice, some units are getting cheaper without the official price per square metre moving much.
Foreign buyers help the best projects but cannot clear the citywide backlog. Nationwide foreign transfers are far smaller than Bangkok’s unsold stock, and every building still faces the 49% foreign-ownership ceiling.
At the current developer sales pace, the existing condo backlog looks digestible in roughly two years on paper. In reality, the weakest units will take longer because Bangkok keeps launching new supply and old stock is not equally sellable.
The main risk now is that developers misread the recovery. If annual launches climb back toward 30,000 to 35,000 units while launch-period sales stay near 50%, Bangkok could rebuild the same inventory problem before clearing the last one.
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How many Bangkok condos are actually sitting unsold?
Bangkok currently has roughly 60,000 unsold condos in the main project-level surveys, which is large enough to call the market oversupplied.
Colliers counted 214,849 condominium units in its Bangkok market universe in early 2026 and found that 28.3% remained unsold. That works out to roughly 60,800 units. AREA's separate survey of Bangkok and the surrounding provinces later counted 61,543 unsold condominiums.
The two studies do not cover exactly the same geography or use exactly the same methodology, so their near-identical totals are not a perfect cross-check. But they put the problem in the same order of magnitude: around 60,000-plus condos looking for buyers.
That is a much more useful figure than some of the huge “Bangkok has 300,000 or 350,000 unsold condos” claims that circulate online. Those broader numbers can mix condos with other housing, future supply, surrounding provinces or units at different stages of development. AREA, for example, counted 210,112 unsold residential units across all property types in metropolitan Bangkok, of which condos represented 61,543.
And even 61,000 is plenty. Bangkok does not need an exaggerated six-figure condo number for the oversupply argument to hold.
| Measure | Market coverage | Latest figure | What we learn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Condo stock tracked by Colliers | Bangkok | 214,849 units | Large active project universe |
| Colliers unsold share | Bangkok | 28.3% | More than one in four units remains available |
| Implied Colliers unsold stock | Bangkok | ~60,800 units | Serious inventory overhang |
| AREA unsold condos | Bangkok and vicinity | 61,543 units | Similar order of magnitude |
| AREA unsold homes, all types | Bangkok and vicinity | 210,112 units | The wider housing glut is much larger |
| AREA unsold townhouses | Bangkok and vicinity | 68,831 units | Condos are not even the worst segment |
Is having 28% of Bangkok condos unsold really that bad?
Yes. A 28% unsold rate is clearly weak, especially because Bangkok has been carrying something close to this level for years.
Colliers' cumulative take-up rate reached 71.7% in early 2026, leaving 28.3% of tracked supply unsold. The same measure was around 68.7% in early 2024 and roughly 70% in late 2025.
Bangkok's excess inventory did not suddenly appear this year. The city has spent several years with close to three units unsold for every seven that developers have managed to sell.
There has been some improvement. Moving from roughly 69% sold to almost 72% sold means inventory is slowly being absorbed. But the pace looks less impressive once we remember what developers did at the same time: they dramatically reduced new launches.
If Bangkok had cut construction hard and the unsold share had quickly dropped toward 10% or 15%, we could argue that the glut was mostly behind us. Instead, almost 30% of stock is still hanging around.
That persistence is the clearest evidence of oversupply today.
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Did Bangkok developers already stop flooding the market with new condos?
Yes. Bangkok developers have already slashed condo launches, and this is probably the strongest reason the oversupply problem is becoming more manageable.
Knight Frank counted 35,761 newly launched Bangkok condos in 2023. By 2025, the figure had dropped to 17,409. Developers effectively halved annual new supply in two years.
Colliers measured a similar fall, counting just under 17,000 units in 2025 and describing a 54.5% year-on-year decline.
The pullback became extreme during the weakest part of the market. In the second quarter of 2025, Colliers counted only 373 new units, while Knight Frank counted 405. That was effectively a pause for a city the size of Bangkok.
Launches are picking up again now. CBRE found that first-half 2026 supply reached 2,380 units downtown and 8,982 units across midtown and suburban Bangkok. Its second-quarter data showed new launches jumping 265% year on year.
That 265% sounds much scarier than it is. The comparison starts from the abnormally weak quarter after the 2025 earthquake, so almost any return toward normal activity produces a huge percentage increase.
Knight Frank's latest numbers make the longer trend clearer. Bangkok received 8,501 newly launched condos in the first half of 2026. Even if the second half becomes busier, developers are still nowhere near the 2023 pace.
| Period | Newly launched Bangkok condos | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 35,761 | Supply was still very aggressive |
| 2025 | 17,409 | Launches roughly halved |
| Q2 2025 | ~400 | Market almost stopped launching |
| H1 2026 | 8,501 | Developers started adding supply again |
| 2026 Colliers forecast | ~20,000 | Recovery, but still well below 2023 |
How did Bangkok end up with too many condos?
Bangkok ended up oversupplied because developers brought supply back faster than real purchasing power recovered.
Knight Frank's launch data shows the sequence unusually clearly.
From early 2020 through much of 2021, developers were launching roughly 2,500 to 7,400 units per quarter. With supply restrained, launch-period sales rates often reached 78% to 100%.
Developers then stepped up production.
By 2022 and 2023, quarterly launch-period sales rates were often down in the 24% to 45% range. During 2023 alone, developers launched 35,761 units, while only 10,155 were reserved within their launch quarters.
That gives us a launch-period sales rate of just 28.4%.
Things became even uglier in early 2024, when Knight Frank measured only 8.3% of newly launched units being reserved during their launch quarter.
The important pattern is the gap between what developers were producing and what buyers could realistically absorb. Supply returned quickly after the pandemic disruption, while household finances, mortgage approvals and confidence recovered much more slowly.
The unsold stock we see today is largely the accumulated result of that mismatch.
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Are Bangkok condo sales actually getting better now?
Yes. New Bangkok condo projects are selling much better today than they were two years ago, although demand still looks far weaker than during genuinely strong periods.
Knight Frank's latest survey recorded a 45.3% launch-period sales rate in the first quarter of 2026 and 51.7% in the second. Across the first half, developers launched 8,501 condos and reserved 3,994 within their respective launch quarters, giving a 47% sales rate.
Compare that with 28.4% during 2023 and just 8.3% at the low point in early 2024. The recovery is real.
But 50% used to be a bad number.
Knight Frank says pre-COVID launch-period sales rates generally exceeded 78%. Bangkok is selling new projects much more easily than it did during the worst phase of the glut, while still operating well below the absorption levels of a strong market.
There is another reason to be careful with the rebound. Knight Frank attributes much of the improvement to developers launching smaller projects, choosing areas where demand already exists and setting prices closer to what buyers can afford.
That is smart adaptation. It also means a 51.7% sales rate today does not prove that Bangkok suddenly has twice as many eager buyers.
The supply being offered to those buyers has simply become much better targeted.
| Period | Launch-period sales rate | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-COVID | Generally >78% | Strong absorption |
| 2023 | 28.4% | Major supply-demand mismatch |
| Q1 2024 | 8.3% | Market low |
| 2025 | 51.6% | Sharp improvement |
| Q1 2026 | 45.3% | Recovery still uneven |
| Q2 2026 | 51.7% | Better, but nowhere near old boom levels |
Why are developers launching more Bangkok condos again if there are already too many?
Bangkok developers are launching again because carefully chosen projects can still sell, and lately the winners have become much easier to identify.
Colliers found that more than 80% of the new units launched in early 2026 were priced below ฿100,000 per square metre. Large listed developers accounted for almost four-fifths of supply. There were no new CBD projects in that quarter.
Knight Frank reaches almost the same conclusion from a different dataset. Developers are focusing on suburban districts, extensions of Bangkok's rail network and price points where local buyers still have a realistic chance of completing a purchase.
CBRE also expects more launches during the rest of the year, including some large projects. That makes the next few quarters important. Developers have finally found ways to get launch-period sales back around 50%, and that success can tempt the industry to add supply too quickly again.
For now, the new wave looks far more selective than the 2022-2023 expansion.
Developers have clearly learned that simply putting another tower on a Bangkok transit line does not guarantee demand.
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Is Bangkok’s condo glut really caused by buyers being unable to get mortgages?
Mortgage constraints are one of the biggest reasons Bangkok has too many unsold condos, especially in the mass market.
The latest data keeps pointing back to the same bottleneck: people can want the property without being able to complete the purchase.
Knight Frank says strict mortgage approvals and limited purchasing power are still holding the broader condo market back. Colliers has also highlighted high mortgage rejection rates as a major reason developers are pushing more units below ฿100,000 per square metre.
A particularly fresh example comes from Sena Development. The company recently described a growing gap between bookings and completed transfers: sales can reach target while actual transfers fall short because some customers cannot secure financing or carry the purchase through to completion.
That distinction is crucial when we read presales numbers. A reservation is encouraging, but developers get paid properly when the unit transfers.
Thailand's banking data supports the idea of a cautious credit environment. The Bank of Thailand reported that consumer and SME lending were still contracting in the first quarter of 2026 even as overall banking-system lending edged up. Commercial banks remain careful about credit risk.
The central bank has actually extended its temporary relaxation of loan-to-value limits, allowing up to 100% LTV in several categories through the middle of 2027. Yet easier LTV ceilings cannot force a bank to lend to someone whose income, debt burden or credit profile does not pass underwriting.
This is why Bangkok can have plenty of people walking through sales galleries and still end up oversupplied.
Are cheap Bangkok condos selling better than expensive ones?
Usually, but the cheap end of Bangkok has its own financing problem, so low price alone does not guarantee sales.
Colliers' launch mix says a lot about what developers currently believe buyers can handle. More than 80% of new units in early 2026 came in below ฿100,000 per square metre.
Knight Frank also expects second-half supply to concentrate around more accessible prices, especially in suburban locations and along extensions of the mass-transit system.
However, Bangkok's weakest purchasers are often the people who depend most heavily on bank financing. A ฿2 million unit can look affordable on a developer's price sheet and still be impossible for a household that fails a mortgage application.
At the expensive end, buyers face a different calculation. A wealthy purchaser may have no trouble paying, but Bangkok offers a huge number of alternatives. A generic ฿12 million condo has to compete with newer buildings, better locations, branded projects and discounted resale units.
The projects selling most easily these days tend to combine three things: a location people already want, a product that feels meaningfully different from nearby supply, and a price the target buyer can actually pay.
Cheap for the sake of cheap is not enough.
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Is Bangkok’s luxury condo market oversupplied too?
Prime Bangkok luxury condos are currently performing far better than the mass market, which shows how misleading a single citywide oversupply label can be.
CBRE's latest first-half data is unusually strong. Completed downtown condo projects had an average sales rate of 93%, with completed luxury projects reaching 95%. Pipeline downtown projects averaged 52%, while the super-luxury pipeline segment reached 85%.
CBRE also reported more than ฿2 billion in sales in the Central Lumpini area during one quarter, while its own Bangkok residential sales rose more than 300% year on year from a weak comparison period.
Thai buyers accounted for 68% of CBRE's downtown purchasers and foreigners for 32%.
Those numbers clearly do not describe a luxury market drowning in unwanted condos.
There is still bad luxury inventory in Bangkok. An expensive project with an ordinary design, awkward location or unrealistic pricing can sit around for years. But genuinely scarce residences around Central Lumpini, prime Sukhumvit and the best mixed-use or branded developments operate in a very different demand pool from a ฿3 million suburban tower.
Affluent buyers are less dependent on maximum mortgage leverage, and they can continue purchasing even when the middle class pulls back.
| Bangkok segment | Current picture | Main reason |
|---|---|---|
| Completed prime luxury | Very strong | CBRE reports ~95% sales rate |
| Super-luxury pipeline | Strong | ~85% sales rate in CBRE data |
| Generic expensive condos | Much weaker | Buyers have plenty of alternatives |
| Transit-linked mid-market | Selectively healthy | Price and location can still work |
| Mortgage-dependent mass market | Weak | Financing blocks many buyers |
Where is Bangkok’s condo oversupply most dangerous?
Bangkok’s most troublesome condo inventory sits where weak purchasing power meets an ordinary product, whether that means a marginal suburban project or an overpriced inner-city one.
Colliers says slower absorption remains concentrated in inner-city and higher-priced segments. At the same time, market reports have repeatedly shown difficulty in low-priced outer areas where buyers depend heavily on mortgages.
At first glance those findings sound inconsistent. They describe two different failures.
An expensive inner-city condo can remain unsold because wealthy buyers have better alternatives. A mass-market suburban unit can remain unsold because the intended buyer cannot borrow enough money.
By contrast, developers are still finding buyers around established transport corridors where the surrounding neighborhood already works. Knight Frank explicitly says demand has become concentrated in locations where it is proven rather than merely expected.
That word “established” is important. Bangkok spent years pricing condos around future rail lines, future shopping centers and future neighborhood growth. Buyers today are much less willing to pay for a promise.
The safer projects already have the station, supermarket, offices, schools, restaurants or established residential population around them.
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If Bangkok has too many condos, why haven’t prices crashed?
Bangkok condo prices have avoided a broad crash because developers have cut construction, slowed launches and used promotions before resorting to brutal headline price reductions.
This is how Bangkok's correction has worked so far.
Annual launches roughly halved between 2023 and 2025. Projects were postponed. Developers reduced project sizes. New supply shifted toward more financeable price points.
That removes pressure without requiring every developer to cut its list price by 20%.
Promotions also do a lot of hidden work. Developers can offer transfer-fee support, furniture, appliances, cash rebates, reduced deposits or special payment schedules while leaving the official unit price relatively intact.
A buyer who gets ฿300,000 worth of discounts and extras on a ฿5 million condo has effectively received a 6% improvement in the deal even if the advertised square-metre price never changes.
Developers prefer this approach because a visible price cut can anger earlier buyers, weaken valuations throughout the building and make future sales harder.
So relatively stable asking prices do not prove that supply and demand are balanced. Bangkok has been adjusting prices quietly through the deal structure.
Can foreign buyers clear Bangkok’s unsold condos?
Foreign demand can help individual Bangkok projects a lot, but foreigners are too small and too volatile a buyer pool to clear the city's wider condo overhang.
REIC's latest detailed foreign-transfer report showed foreign buyers taking 3,241 condos nationwide in the first quarter of 2026, down 17.3% from the same period a year earlier. The transferred value fell 17.9% to ฿13.46 billion.
Chinese buyers remained the largest group, although REIC linked their weaker activity to China's economic slowdown and tighter liquidity.
At the same time, other nationalities are becoming more visible. Indian buyers have stood out for especially high average transaction values, while CBRE says buyers from the Middle East, Japan and Russia have supported demand in Bangkok's premium market.
That diversification helps. It still leaves Bangkok exposed to the basic mathematics of scale.
The city and surrounding market has more than 60,000 unsold condos in the AREA survey. Foreign transactions across the whole country run at only a fraction of that volume each quarter, and Bangkok receives only part of them.
There is also a legal ceiling: foreigners can own no more than 49% of the total saleable area of a condominium building.
Foreign money can make a huge difference to a Central Lumpini project. It cannot rescue every mediocre tower across Greater Bangkok.
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Are rising property transfers proof Bangkok’s condo glut is ending?
No. Rising transfers are encouraging, but Bangkok still has too much inventory for us to call the oversupply problem solved.
REIC's latest half-year release found residential transfers across Thailand rising 17.6% year on year. In the first quarter alone, transfers had already risen 11.2% to 72,583 units.
AREA's Bangkok metropolitan survey points in the same direction at the developer level. It counted 26,780 new-home sales during the first half of 2026, including 14,439 condominiums. AREA expects total residential developer sales to reach roughly 57,000 units for the full year, up from 50,472 in 2025.
That is a decent recovery.
Government support is helping too. Reduced transfer and mortgage-registration fees have lowered transaction costs, while the Bank of Thailand has extended relaxed LTV rules.
We should still separate improving flow from the stock already sitting on the market. AREA simultaneously counted 210,112 unsold homes across Bangkok and its surrounding provinces, including those 61,543 condos.
As seen above, developers are selling more successfully now. They are starting from a very large pile of unsold property.
| Indicator | Latest reading | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Thailand residential transfers | +17.6% YoY in H1 | Improving |
| Bangkok-area developer residential sales | 26,780 in H1 | Improving |
| Bangkok-area condo sales | 14,439 in H1 | Improving |
| 2025 developer residential sales | 50,472 | Weak base |
| AREA 2026 forecast | ~57,000 | Recovery expected |
| Unsold Bangkok-area condos | 61,543 | Still very high |
How long could Bangkok take to clear all those unsold condos?
Bangkok could theoretically work through its condo inventory in a little over two years at the current sales pace, but the least attractive units will probably hang around much longer.
AREA counted 61,543 unsold condos around mid-year and 14,439 condo sales during the first half.
Annualising those sales gives us roughly 28,900 condo transactions from developers per year. Dividing 61,543 by 28,900 produces about 2.1 years of sales.
That calculation is deliberately simple. Bangkok will keep launching new condos, some current sales come from newer projects, and every unit is not equally sellable. A badly located unit can remain available long after stronger stock disappears.
AREA's broader calculation illustrates the same problem from another angle. Across condos, houses, townhouses and other residential products, it estimates the 210,112 unsold units would take 49.5 months to clear if developers launched absolutely nothing else.
So Bangkok is dealing with a multi-year cleanup.
The encouraging part is that condo turnover itself is fast enough to prevent the current stock from looking impossible to digest. The worrying part is that developers are already increasing launches again before that cleanup is complete.
| Calculation | Approximate figure |
|---|---|
| Unsold Bangkok-area condos | 61,543 |
| Condo sales in H1 | 14,439 |
| Annualised sales pace | ~28,900 |
| Unsold stock / annualised sales | ~2.1 years |
| Unsold residential stock, all types | 210,112 |
| AREA all-housing clearance estimate | 49.5 months |
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Could Bangkok create another condo glut from here?
Yes. Bangkok could rebuild the oversupply surprisingly quickly if developers ramp launches back toward 2023 levels while purchasing power stays weak.
CBRE is already seeing more supply come back. New condo launches jumped 265% year on year in the second quarter, albeit against an exceptionally low base. CBRE expects several larger projects during the rest of the year.
Knight Frank also expects developers to keep launching in areas where they have found workable demand.
There is nothing alarming about 8,501 units launched in the first half by itself. The risk starts if annual supply moves back toward 30,000 or 35,000 units while launch-period sales remain around 50% or fall again.
We already know what happened the last time the gap became too wide. Developers launched 35,761 units in 2023 and only 28.4% were reserved during their launch quarters.
Today's industry is behaving more carefully. Smaller projects, proven locations and accessible prices have become normal parts of launch strategy.
The test over the next few quarters is simple: can developers keep launch sales above roughly 50% while adding more supply?
If the answer turns negative, Bangkok will start piling new inventory on top of inventory it still has not cleared.
Is Bangkok’s condo market actually oversupplied?
Yes. Bangkok’s condo market is genuinely oversupplied today, although the worst phase of inventory accumulation appears to be behind it.
Around 60,000-plus condos remain unsold in the main market surveys, and Colliers still has 28.3% of tracked Bangkok inventory available. That is too much stock to call the market balanced.
The deeper evidence points in the same direction. Bangkok launched more than 35,000 condos in 2023 while launch-period sales fell below 30%. Mortgage-dependent buyers remain financially stretched. Developers are still designing projects around stricter affordability limits. Recent industry comments even describe buyers reserving homes and then failing to complete the transfer.
Yet the market has changed considerably since the worst point of the downturn.
Annual launches roughly halved by 2025. Developers became much more selective about locations and project sizes. Launch-period sales have climbed from 8.3% at the low point to 51.7% in the latest quarter. Residential transfers are rising again. Housing credit outstanding has continued edging higher. Prime luxury condos can still achieve extremely high sales rates.
The result is a very uneven Bangkok market.
Good condos are selling. Generic ones are struggling. Wealthy buyers remain active. Mortgage-dependent households are having a much harder time. Established transit locations can work well while speculative locations suffer. And developers with the right product can capture buyers from competitors even when overall demand barely grows.
Calling Bangkok simply “a condo glut” misses part of the story.
We would describe the market more precisely as an oversupplied market that is slowly correcting. Developers have already cut the inflow of new stock enough to stop the imbalance from spiraling, while demand is now improving from a very weak base.
The big risk from here comes from success itself. If developers see launch sales above 50%, get excited and return too quickly to 30,000-plus annual launches, Bangkok could recreate the same problem before clearing the old inventory.
For now, buyers still have the stronger hand across much of the market. Bangkok has too many condos for the amount of effective demand available today, and several years of excess stock will probably remain visible. But the evidence currently points toward a slow cleanup rather than an approaching citywide condo crash.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Bangkok’s condo market is genuinely oversupplied today. Because the answer can look very different depending on whether we focus on unsold stock, new launches, reservations, completed transfers, mortgage access or prime-project performance, we broke the question into those separate analytical dimensions and assessed them together.
For each dimension, we prioritized the freshest available evidence and aggregated the most relevant readings rather than relying on one headline figure. The main tests were the number of unsold condominiums, cumulative and launch-period absorption, the pace of new launches, buyers’ ability to finance and complete purchases, differences between market segments, foreign demand and current transaction activity.
Colliers and AREA do not measure exactly the same geography or project universe, so we use their roughly 60,000-plus unsold-condo readings to establish scale and direction rather than pretending they are perfectly interchangeable. The same rule applies when comparing Bangkok-only project surveys with Bangkok-and-vicinity housing data.
We also separate indicators that are easy to confuse. Reservations are not the same as completed transfers, improving transaction flow does not erase the stock already sitting unsold, and a very large year-on-year percentage increase can still come from an abnormally weak comparison period.
The simple inventory-to-sales calculation is used as a scale check, not as a literal forecast. Annualising first-half developer condo sales and dividing current unsold stock by that pace gives a rough sense of how large the backlog is, while acknowledging that new projects will keep launching and weaker units will clear much more slowly than stronger ones.
We gave the greatest weight to official data, direct project-level research and first-hand market evidence. Key sources include Colliers’ Bangkok Condominium Market Q1 2026, Knight Frank Thailand’s H1 2026 condo sales-rate analysis, CBRE Thailand’s Bangkok Overall Figures Q2 2026, AREA’s Bangkok Real Estate Markets, First Half of 2026 and Tendency, the Bank of Thailand’s Q1 2026 banking-sector brief, REIC’s Q1 2026 foreign condominium transfer report, and REIC’s H1 2026 housing-market update.
For segment-level context, we also use CBRE’s Bangkok luxury-condo sales data, Colliers’ Q4 2025 Bangkok condominium report, Colliers’ Q2 2025 report, and the Bank of Thailand’s extension of temporary LTV relaxation.
The final conclusion does not depend on an arbitrary definition of a “glut.” It comes from the combined weight of evidence across inventory, absorption, financing, new supply, transaction activity and market segmentation, with more recent readings interpreted against the multi-year pattern that created today’s backlog.
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