How is the property market forecast in Wellington?

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the New Zealand Property Pack

Yes, the analysis of Wellington's property market is included in our pack

Who is the author of this content?

BAMBOOROUTES

A team specialized in real estate investing in APAC countries (Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, etc.).

We are a team of financial experts, legal professionals, developers, and local real estate specialists dedicated to helping people like you avoid mistakes when investing in real estate in a foreign place, particularly in Wellington. If you'd like to learn more about us, you can check our presentation page.

How this content was created 🔎📝

At BambooRoutes, we explore the Wellington real estate market every day. Our team doesn't just analyze data from a distance—we're actively engaging with local realtors, investors, and property managers in cities like Wellington, Auckland, and Christchurch. This hands-on approach allows us to gain a deep understanding of the market from the inside out.

These observations are originally based on what we've learned through these conversations and our observations. But it was not enough. To back them up, we also needed to rely on trusted resources

We prioritize accuracy and authority. Trends lacking solid data or expert validation were excluded.

Trustworthiness is central to our work. Every source and citation is clearly listed, ensuring transparency. A writing AI-powered tool was used solely to refine readability and engagement.

To make the information accessible, our team designed custom infographics that clarify key points. We hope you will like them! All illustrations and media were created in-house and added manually.

What's the current median house price in Wellington, and how has it changed compared to last year?

Wellington's median house price currently stands at NZ$795,000 as of June 2025.

This represents a modest annual increase of 1.3% compared to the same period last year, showing the market has maintained stability rather than experiencing dramatic price swings.

The current median price reflects a market that has found equilibrium after the volatility of previous years. While some areas within Wellington show average house values ranging from NZ$844,600 to NZ$956,548 depending on location and property type, the median figure of NZ$795,000 serves as the most reliable benchmark for typical standalone homes in the city.

This price point positions Wellington as more affordable than Auckland but still represents a significant investment for most buyers. The 1.3% growth rate indicates the market is neither overheating nor declining sharply, creating conditions that may appeal to both first-home buyers and investors seeking stability.

It's something we develop in our New Zealand property pack.

How many homes are currently listed for sale in Wellington, and how does that number compare with the five-year average?

Wellington's property market is currently experiencing elevated inventory levels with significantly more homes available than historical averages.

While specific sales listing numbers for September 2025 weren't provided in the source data, rental listings indicate market trends with 1,383 homes available for rent, which is 38% above the five-year average of 999 properties. This elevated inventory pattern typically mirrors sales listings, suggesting buyers have considerably more choice than in recent years.

The increased stock levels represent a shift from the tight inventory conditions that characterized Wellington's market in previous years. This abundance of choice has reduced the fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) mentality that previously drove rapid purchasing decisions and competitive bidding situations.

For buyers, this means more time to evaluate options, negotiate prices, and conduct thorough due diligence. For sellers, it means facing increased competition and potentially longer selling timeframes, requiring more strategic pricing and marketing approaches.

What's the average time a property stays on the market before selling in Wellington right now?

Properties in Wellington currently take an average of 50 days to sell, representing a significant increase from market conditions one year ago.

This timeframe has extended by 11 days compared to the same period last year when properties sold within 39 days on average. The lengthening selling period reflects the shift from a seller's market to more balanced conditions where buyers have greater negotiating power and time to make decisions.

The 50-day average indicates that while properties are still selling, the process has become more deliberate and less frenzied than during peak market periods. This timeline allows for proper marketing campaigns, multiple viewings, and negotiation periods that were often compressed during high-demand phases.

For sellers, this means planning for longer holding periods and potentially carrying costs such as mortgage payments, rates, and maintenance for an extended time. For buyers, it provides opportunities to conduct thorough inspections, secure financing, and make informed decisions without pressure.

What's the annual growth rate in Wellington house prices over the past 10 years, and how does that compare to the national average?

Wellington's residential property market has delivered an annual growth rate of approximately 4.09% over the past decade from 2005 to 2025.

This performance falls below the New Zealand national average of 6-7% annual compound growth over the same period, indicating that Wellington has been a more conservative market compared to other major centers. The lower growth rate reflects Wellington's position as a government and service sector hub rather than a high-growth commercial center.

While Wellington's 4.09% annual growth may appear modest compared to national figures, it represents steady, sustainable appreciation that has provided solid returns for long-term property owners. This growth rate has been achieved despite Wellington's unique challenges including earthquake risk considerations and a relatively stable population base.

The consistent but moderate growth pattern suggests Wellington offers stability over speculation, appealing to investors seeking reliable long-term returns rather than rapid capital gains. This performance also indicates that Wellington properties may be less susceptible to dramatic price corrections during market downturns.

What are the rental vacancy rates in Wellington at the moment, and how have they shifted in the last 12 months?

Wellington's rental market is currently experiencing a clear oversupply situation with vacancy rates having increased substantially over the past 12 months.

Rental listings were up 55.9% year-on-year at the end of 2024, creating a significantly looser rental market than Wellington has experienced in recent years. This dramatic increase in available rental properties indicates a fundamental shift from the tight rental conditions that previously characterized the city.

The elevated vacancy rates represent a tenant's market where renters have significantly more choice and negotiating power. Property managers and landlords are finding it takes longer to secure tenants and may need to offer incentives or accept lower rents to attract quality tenants.

This shift reflects broader economic factors including population movement patterns, new housing supply coming online, and changing work arrangements that may have reduced demand for inner-city rentals. For investors, higher vacancy rates mean increased risk of rental income gaps and potentially lower returns on investment properties.

What's the average weekly rent in Wellington, and how much has it increased in the past year?

Wellington's average weekly rent currently ranges between NZ$590 and NZ$673 depending on property type and location within the region.

Contrary to typical rental market trends, average weekly rents have actually declined by 8% year-on-year on a region-wide basis as of March 2025. This decrease represents a significant shift from the rental growth patterns of previous years and reflects the oversupplied market conditions.

The rental decline demonstrates how excess inventory has shifted market power toward tenants, allowing them to negotiate better terms and forcing landlords to reduce prices to secure occupancy. Some data sources show stability around the NZ$590 mark, suggesting certain segments may have found equilibrium while others continue to adjust downward.

For landlords, this rental decline combined with higher vacancy rates creates challenging conditions for investment property returns. For tenants, it represents improved affordability and greater choice in the Wellington rental market compared to previous years when rents were rising consistently.

It's something we develop in our New Zealand property pack.

How many new building consents were issued in Wellington last year, and how does that compare to the long-term trend?

Wellington's building consent activity has followed the national trend of declining construction approvals, though specific numbers for 2024/25 were not detailed in available data.

Across New Zealand, building consents have fallen approximately 30% from their 2023 peak levels, with Wellington's patterns aligning with this national downward trend. This significant reduction in new construction approvals reflects both economic uncertainties and tighter lending conditions affecting developers and homebuilders.

The decline in building consents indicates that new housing supply will be constrained in the coming years as fewer projects receive approval and commence construction. This reduced pipeline may eventually help absorb the current oversupply of existing properties in Wellington's market.

Lower consent numbers also reflect the impact of higher construction costs, stricter lending criteria for development projects, and uncertainty about future demand. While this may seem negative for immediate construction activity, it could support property values in the medium term by limiting new supply competing with existing stock.

What's the current mortgage interest rate range in New Zealand, and how do different rate scenarios affect average buyer affordability in Wellington?

New Zealand's residential mortgage interest rates currently range between 5.8% and 7.3% for fixed-rate loans as of September 2025.

Interest Rate Scenario	Monthly Payment (NZ$795K)	Affordability Impact
5.8% (current low)	~NZ$4,780	Most affordable current option
6.5% (mid-range)	~NZ$5,070	Moderate affordability constraint
7.3% (current high)	~NZ$5,390	Significant affordability pressure
5.0% (potential 2026)	~NZ$4,400	Improved buyer capacity
4.5% (optimistic 2026)	~NZ$4,150	Strong buyer affordability

Interest rate variations within this range create substantial differences in buyer affordability and purchasing power. The difference between borrowing at 5.8% versus 7.3% represents approximately NZ$610 per month in mortgage payments for a median-priced Wellington property, significantly affecting who can qualify for loans.

Market expectations suggest interest rates may ease into 2026, which would improve affordability and potentially stimulate increased buyer activity. Lower rates would also reduce the carrying costs for investors, potentially improving returns on rental properties despite current rental market softness.

What percentage of buyers in Wellington are first-home buyers, and how does that compare to investors and upgraders?

First-home buyers are currently making up a larger share of Wellington's property purchases compared to recent years, though specific percentages were not quantified in the available data.

The increased first-home buyer activity reflects improved market conditions including softer prices, longer decision timeframes, and clearer mortgage lending criteria. These buyers are benefiting from reduced competition and more negotiating power compared to the intense bidding wars of previous market cycles.

Investor participation has declined significantly from previous years as rental returns have softened and profitability has tightened due to higher vacancy rates and declining rents. The combination of lower rental yields and higher mortgage rates has made investment properties less attractive for many investors.

Property upgraders, including families trading up to larger homes, represent a steady but reduced segment of the market as many homeowners remain cautious about making moves during uncertain market conditions. The extended selling timeframes also make property chains more complex for upgraders who need to coordinate sales and purchases.

We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in New Zealand versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you're planning to invest there.

What's the current unemployment rate in Wellington, and how does it compare to five years ago?

Wellington's unemployment rate is estimated to be around 4% as of September 2025, tracking closely with the national New Zealand unemployment rate.

This represents an increase from approximately 3% five years ago in 2020, though it remains at historically low levels that indicate a relatively healthy labor market. Wellington's unemployment typically runs below the national average due to its concentration of government and professional service jobs.

The slight increase in unemployment over five years reflects broader economic adjustments including technological changes, post-pandemic economic restructuring, and cyclical business conditions. However, the 4% rate still represents near full employment conditions that support property market stability.

Wellington's employment base remains relatively stable due to its role as New Zealand's capital city, hosting government departments, diplomatic missions, and major corporate headquarters. This employment stability provides underlying support for housing demand, though it may limit the explosive growth seen in more dynamic economic centers.

What is the population growth forecast for Wellington over the next decade, and how many additional dwellings will be needed to meet that demand?

Wellington region is projected to experience significant population growth over the next decade, with surrounding areas showing particularly strong expansion forecasts.

1. **Porirua City** (adjacent to Wellington): Projected 13.04% population growth over 25 years2. **Kapiti Coast**: Forecast 7.61% growth over the same period3. **Wellington City**: Expected steady growth requiring thousands of additional dwellings4. **Regional Migration**: Continued net migration expected to drive housing demand5. **Demographic Changes**: Aging population and household formation patterns will influence dwelling requirements

The projected population growth will create substantial demand for new housing across the Wellington region, with estimates suggesting thousands of additional dwellings will be needed to accommodate the expanding population. This demand will need to be met through a combination of new construction, urban intensification, and development of previously undeveloped land.

The growth projections suggest that current oversupply conditions in Wellington's property market may be temporary, with underlying demographic trends supporting future demand. However, the pace of population growth will need to be balanced against new housing supply to prevent affordability crises.

It's something we develop in our New Zealand property pack.

How do experts forecast Wellington property prices and sales volumes to move in the next 12 to 24 months under different economic conditions?

Property experts are forecasting modest growth or flat price movement for Wellington through late 2025, with potential for recovery in 2026 depending on economic conditions.

Economic Scenario	Price Forecast	Sales Volume Forecast
Interest rates decline to 5%	3-5% annual growth	15-20% volume increase
Rates remain at 6-7%	0-2% annual growth	Stable to slight increase
Economic recession	-2% to -5% decline	10-15% volume decrease
Strong population growth	4-6% annual growth	20-25% volume increase
Continued oversupply	Flat to -1% growth	Slow improvement

Most forecasts expect house prices to remain subdued or grow slowly while inventory levels remain high and mortgage affordability is constrained. However, if interest rates decline significantly or population migration picks up substantially, stronger price growth and sales volumes are likely to follow.

Sales volumes have shown slight improvement with a 3.1% year-on-year increase noted recently, though total transactions remain below pre-pandemic levels. The market's direction will largely depend on the interaction between interest rate movements, employment conditions, and population growth trends.

The consensus among experts is that Wellington's property market is positioned for gradual recovery rather than dramatic price movements, with the timing dependent on broader economic factors beyond the local market's control.

Conclusion

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.

Sources

1. Squirrel - Wellington Property Market Update June 2025
2. Property Plus - Wellington Rental Market Trends
3. Opes Partners - Wellington City Property Market
4. Lowe & Co - New Zealand Housing Market July 2025
5. Staircase - NZ Property Price Growth Forecast
6. Trade Me - Wellington Regional Property Market Insights
7. Real Estate News - New Zealand Property Market 2025
8. OneRoof - House Price Report July 2025