Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the New Zealand Property Pack
Yes, the analysis of Wellington's property market is included in our pack
If you're wondering whether January 2026 is the right time to buy property in Wellington, you're not alone.
With Wellington house prices sitting around 30% below their 2021 peak and the market showing clear signs of stabilisation, many buyers are asking whether it's finally time to make their move.
In this article, we cover the latest Wellington housing prices and market signals, and we constantly update this blog post with fresh data and analysis.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Wellington.
So, is now a good time?
Rather yes, January 2026 looks like a sensible window to buy property in Wellington if you're selective about what you purchase and patient in your approach.
The strongest signal supporting this view is that Wellington inventory has been growing for many consecutive months, which gives buyers genuine negotiating power and time to find the right property without rushing.
Another strong signal is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand eased LVR restrictions from December 2025, making it easier for first-home buyers to enter the market with smaller deposits.
Other supporting signals include elevated days-to-sell (around 46 days), price-to-income ratios that have improved significantly from the peak, and DTI restrictions that act as a brake against another sudden price surge.
The best investment strategy in Wellington right now is to focus on standalone houses or well-located townhouses in suburbs with good transport links and low building risk, plan for a medium-to-long hold of at least 5 years, and prioritise properties with straightforward insurance and no seismic or weathertightness concerns.
This is not financial or investment advice, we don't know your personal situation, and you should always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making any property decisions.
Is it smart to buy now in Wellington, or should I wait as of 2026?
Do real estate prices look too high in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, Wellington property prices are not obviously cheap, but they're also not at bubble levels, with the median house price around NZ$767,500 and values sitting roughly 25-30% below the 2021 peak.
One clear on-the-ground signal that prices are no longer stretched is that days-to-sell in Wellington has risen to around 46 days, which is significantly longer than the 30-35 days typical of a hot market, and this means sellers are having to work harder to attract buyers.
Another telling signal is that new listings in Wellington have increased year-on-year, giving buyers more choice and reducing the competitive pressure that drives prices higher during tight-supply periods.
You can also read our latest update regarding the housing prices in Wellington.
Does a property price drop look likely in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the likelihood of a meaningful property price decline in Wellington over the next 12 months looks low to medium, as the market has already undergone a significant correction and appears to be stabilising.
The plausible price change range for Wellington property over the next 12 months is roughly flat to modest growth of 3-6%, with a small downside risk of up to 5% decline if economic conditions worsen unexpectedly.
The single most important macro factor that would increase the odds of a Wellington price drop is a sharp rise in unemployment, particularly in the government and public sector which drives a large portion of Wellington's economy.
However, most forecasters expect unemployment to peak around 5.4% before easing during 2026, which means a sudden job-loss shock that would trigger further price falls looks relatively unlikely at this stage.
Finally, please note that we cover the price trends for next year in our pack about the property market in Wellington.
Could property prices jump again in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the likelihood of a renewed price surge in Wellington over the next 12 months is low to medium, because while demand-side pressures are building, structural brakes remain in place.
The plausible upside price change range for Wellington property over the next 12 months is around 3-6%, with national forecasts from major banks like ANZ and Westpac pointing to 5-6% growth nationally.
The single biggest demand-side trigger that could drive Wellington prices to jump again is continued interest rate cuts combined with the December 2025 LVR easing, which allows more first-home buyers to enter the market with smaller deposits.
Please also note that we regularly publish and update real estate price forecasts for Wellington here.
Are we in a buyer or a seller market in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, Wellington is leaning toward a buyer's market, with elevated inventory, rising new listings, and extended selling times all giving purchasers more negotiating power than they've had in years.
The estimated months-of-inventory in Wellington is higher than the 3-4 months that typically indicates a balanced market, which means buyers can take their time, compare options, and negotiate harder on price without fear of missing out.
The share of listings requiring price reductions in Wellington has increased compared to the tight-market years, which suggests that many sellers are still overpricing initially and having to adjust downward to attract offers.
Are homes overpriced, or fairly priced in Wellington as of 2026?
Are homes overpriced versus rents or versus incomes in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, Wellington homes are moderately expensive but no longer at extreme overpricing levels, with both price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios having improved significantly from the 2021 peak.
The estimated price-to-rent ratio in Wellington translates to gross rental yields of around 3.5-4.5% for houses and 4-5% for townhouses and apartments, which is below the 5-6% that would indicate strong value but improved from the 3% yields seen at the market peak.
The estimated price-to-income multiple in Wellington is around 8-10 times median household income, which is still stretched compared to a healthy benchmark of 4-6 times, but materially better than the 12+ times seen during the boom years.
Finally please note that you will have all the indicators you need in our property pack covering the real estate market in Wellington.
Are home prices above the long-term average in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, Wellington home prices remain above long-term historical averages in absolute terms, but they have declined significantly from their extreme highs and are now closer to sustainable levels.
The estimated recent 12-month price change in Wellington has been roughly flat to slightly negative (down around 2-4%), which is notably slower than the pre-pandemic long-run average growth of 5-6% per year.
In inflation-adjusted (real) terms, Wellington prices are substantially below the 2021 peak, with QV data showing values down close to 30% from peak in some parts of the city, meaning real purchasing power has been partially restored.
What local changes could move prices in Wellington as of 2026?
Are big infrastructure projects coming to Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the biggest infrastructure project likely to impact Wellington property prices is the SH1 Wellington Improvements programme, which is classified as a Road of National Significance and included in the National Land Transport Programme 2024-2027.
The estimated timeline for this project involves ongoing work through 2027 and beyond, with construction phases creating short-term disruption in affected corridors but potential for long-term accessibility improvements that could lift values in suburbs like Johnsonville, Tawa, and the northern commuter catchment.
For the latest updates on the local projects, you can read our property market analysis about Wellington here.
Are zoning or building rules changing in Wellington as of 2026?
The most important zoning change in Wellington is the 2023 District Plan update, which allows up to 3 homes of 3 storeys in many residential areas and 6+ storey developments near transit hubs, significantly increasing medium-density housing potential.
As of January 2026, the net effect of these zoning changes on Wellington prices is mixed: in areas where townhouse supply can increase rapidly, like Newtown, Mount Cook, Kilbirnie, and Johnsonville, resale price growth may be capped by new-build competition.
Conversely, in tightly constrained heritage or character pockets like Kelburn, Thorndon, and Northland, where zoning limits new supply, standalone houses are likely to hold their scarcity value better over time.
Are foreign-buyer or mortgage rules changing in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, foreign-buyer rules remain restrictive for Wellington property, with overseas buyers generally unable to purchase existing residential homes without meeting specific consent requirements, which limits external demand pressure on the market.
The most significant mortgage rule change is the RBNZ's December 2025 LVR easing, which now allows banks to issue up to 25% of new owner-occupier loans above 80% LVR and up to 10% of new investor loans above 70% LVR, making it easier for buyers with smaller deposits to enter the market.
However, DTI (debt-to-income) restrictions remain in place since July 2024, limiting how much buyers can borrow relative to their income and acting as a structural brake against another rapid price surge even as other credit conditions ease.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in New Zealand.
Will it be easy to find tenants in Wellington as of 2026?
Is the renter pool growing faster than new supply in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the balance between renter demand and rental supply in Wellington favours tenants, with rental listings up around 40% compared to the five-year average and rents declining year-on-year.
The recent net migration signal for Wellington shows population growth has slowed, with more people leaving New Zealand than arriving nationally, and public sector job cuts in the capital have reduced the typical renter pool growth that Wellington usually enjoys.
On the supply side, the pace of new rental listings has been strong, with Trade Me reporting over 1,600 properties listed across the Wellington region at recent counts, creating competition among landlords and giving tenants more bargaining power.
Are days-on-market for rentals falling in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, days-on-market for rentals in Wellington is not falling overall; the softer rental market means many properties are taking longer to let than they did during the tight-supply years of 2021-2022.
The difference in days-on-market between Wellington's best suburbs and weaker areas is significant: well-priced family homes in school zones like Kelburn, Thorndon, and Karori still rent within 1-2 weeks, while apartments with issues like poor sun or seismic concerns can sit for 4-6 weeks or longer.
One common reason days-on-market could fall in Wellington is seasonal demand from government workers and students arriving before the academic and work year begins in February, which typically creates a short burst of rental activity in late January.
Are vacancies dropping in the best areas of Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, vacancies are not broadly dropping in Wellington's best rental areas like Kelburn, Thorndon, Mount Victoria, and Karori, but well-maintained properties in these locations still experience tighter conditions than the wider market.
The estimated vacancy rate in Wellington's best suburbs is lower than the regional average, but the gap has narrowed as the overall market has softened and tenants have gained more choice across all areas.
One practical sign that the best areas are tightening first in Wellington is when quality 3-bedroom houses with good sun and modern heating start receiving multiple applications within days of listing, even while similar properties in less desirable streets sit empty.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current rent levels in Wellington.
Am I buying into a tightening market in Wellington as of 2026?
Is for-sale inventory shrinking in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, for-sale inventory in Wellington is not shrinking; REINZ data shows Wellington has experienced a prolonged period of year-on-year inventory growth, giving buyers more choice than they've had in recent years.
The estimated months-of-supply in Wellington is above the 3-4 months that typically indicates a balanced market, which means sellers need to price realistically and be patient, while buyers can negotiate without the pressure of a tight-supply environment.
Are homes selling faster in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, homes in Wellington are not selling faster; the median days-to-sell sits around 46 days, which is elevated compared to the 30-35 days typical of a faster-moving market.
The estimated year-over-year change in median days-on-market for Wellington shows an increase of around 5 days compared to the same period last year, indicating the market has continued to slow rather than tighten.
Are new listings slowing down in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, new listings in Wellington are not slowing down; REINZ reports new listings have increased around 5.5% year-on-year nationally, and Wellington is contributing to this trend with steady listing activity.
The seasonal pattern for new listings in Wellington typically shows a quiet December-early January period followed by a surge in late January and February as sellers return from holidays; the current level is not unusually low by historical standards.
Is new construction failing to keep up in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, we estimate new construction in Wellington is constrained, but the gap between completions and demand is not as severe as in some other New Zealand cities, partly because population growth has slowed and the building pipeline from recent years is still working through.
The recent trend in building consents for Wellington showed a significant drop (around 28% year-on-year by late 2024), which means the future supply pipeline for 2026-2027 is more limited and could contribute to tighter conditions later.
The single biggest bottleneck limiting new construction in Wellington is a combination of terrain constraints (hills and limited flat land), infrastructure capacity issues (water and wastewater), and elevated construction costs that make many projects unviable at current prices.
Will it be easy to sell later in Wellington as of 2026?
Is resale liquidity strong enough in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, resale liquidity in Wellington is adequate for standard, low-risk properties, but weaker for complex stock like apartments with seismic uncertainty, high body corporate fees, or insurance challenges.
The estimated median days-on-market for resale homes in Wellington is around 46 days, which is longer than the 30-day benchmark that typically indicates healthy liquidity, but still within a range where well-priced properties do find buyers.
One property characteristic that most improves resale liquidity in Wellington is having a straightforward risk profile: standalone houses with good sun, no major retaining-wall issues, and simple insurance arrangements consistently sell faster and attract more buyer interest.
Is selling time getting longer in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, selling time in Wellington has been getting longer, with days-to-sell up around 5 days compared to the same period last year and elevated compared to the faster-moving market of 2020-2021.
The estimated current median days-on-market in Wellington is around 46 days, with a realistic range from 25-30 days for well-priced, desirable properties up to 70-90+ days for difficult stock like earthquake-prone apartments or overpriced listings.
One clear reason selling time lengthens in Wellington is affordability pressure combined with buyer caution: with prices still elevated relative to incomes and memories of the market correction fresh, buyers are taking longer to commit and demanding more from sellers before making offers.
Is it realistic to exit with profit in Wellington as of 2026?
As of January 2026, the likelihood of selling with profit in Wellington is medium for short holds (under 3 years) and high for medium-to-long holds (5+ years), assuming you buy a quality property at a realistic price and avoid high-risk buildings.
The estimated minimum holding period in Wellington that most often makes exiting with profit realistic is around 5-7 years, which allows time for the market to recover, transaction costs to be absorbed, and modest capital growth to accumulate.
The estimated total round-trip cost drag in Wellington (buying plus selling costs) is around NZ$50,000-80,000 on a median-priced property, which includes agent commission of roughly NZ$20,000-25,000, legal fees of NZ$3,000-5,000 on each side, and marketing costs of NZ$3,000-5,000 (approximately USD 30,000-48,000 or EUR 28,000-45,000).
One clear factor that most increases profit odds in Wellington is buying in suburbs with genuine scarcity value and low building risk, such as Kelburn, Thorndon, Mount Victoria, or parts of Karori, where limited supply and consistent demand support long-term value retention.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Wellington, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can ... and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) | REINZ is the industry body that publishes widely used nationwide sales and market metrics directly from agents. | We used it for market temperature signals: days-to-sell, listings, new listings, and inventory growth. We relied on these indicators to assess buyer vs seller balance in Wellington. |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Financial Stability Report | This is New Zealand's central bank analyzing housing and financial-system risks using official data. | We used it to anchor price-to-income ratios by region and assess whether Wellington prices look sustainable. We treated it as the conservative reference for overpricing analysis. |
| RBNZ LVR Policy Announcement | It's the official announcement of mortgage lending rule changes from New Zealand's banking regulator. | We used it to assess near-term demand pressure from easier low-deposit lending from December 2025. We incorporated this into our buyer demand and price-jump analysis. |
| RBNZ DTI Restrictions Explainer | It's the regulator's plain-English description of debt-to-income rules that limit how much people can borrow. | We used it to judge how much the market can re-accelerate even if rates fall. We treat DTI as the speed limiter on another boom. |
| QV House Price Index | QV is a long-established New Zealand property data provider with a published index methodology. | We used it to anchor current value levels and short-term price momentum around late 2025. We triangulated it against RBNZ and REINZ narratives. |
| Trade Me Property Rental Price Index | Trade Me is New Zealand's dominant property marketplace and publishes a transparent rental index. | We used it to estimate current rents by property type and rental market momentum going into 2026. We computed gross yields by pairing rents with price data. |
| Tenancy Services (MBIE) Rental Bond Data | It's official government-administered rental market activity data tracking bonds lodged and active. | We used it as a hard, verifiable proxy for rental market churn and the stock of tenancies. We cross-checked private rental listing signals against this data. |
| Wellington City Council District Plan | It's the rulebook that governs what can be built where in Wellington City. | We used it to identify zoning and density changes that shift medium-term supply. We explained why some suburbs may see more new-build competition than others. |
| NZ Transport Agency (Waka Kotahi) SH1 Wellington Improvements | It's the official project page for a major nationally significant transport programme. | We used it to identify likely medium-term accessibility changes that can move price gradients between suburbs. We highlighted construction disruption and value dynamics. |
| Inland Revenue Bright-line Test | It's the official tax authority guidance on taxable property sales rules in New Zealand. | We used it to explain investor behaviour incentives and how tax rules affect short-term vs long-term holding decisions. We factored it into exit profit realism. |
| Land Information New Zealand (LINZ) Overseas Investment Guidance | LINZ administers overseas investment rules and publishes the official guidance for property buyers. | We used it to confirm foreign-buyer constraints that limit external demand on Wellington's market. We ensured accuracy for non-resident readers. |
| Stats NZ Building Topic Hub | It's the national statistics agency's gateway to building consent and construction activity data. | We used it to ground the new construction discussion in official supply indicators. We cross-checked against Wellington's planning rules and infrastructure capacity. |
| Opes Partners Wellington Market Analysis | Opes Partners provides detailed suburb-level data and analysis for New Zealand property investors. | We used it for suburb-specific median prices, yield data, and growth rates. We cross-referenced their figures with official sources for validation. |
| Cotality (CoreLogic) House Price Index | This is the primary source describing a widely used quality-adjusted New Zealand house price index. | We used it to justify which index methodology we trust for trend analysis. We relied on it to avoid overreacting to mix-shifts in monthly median data. |
Related blog posts