Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Indonesia Property Pack
Everything you need to know before buying real estate is included in our Indonesia Property Pack
Thinking about buying property in Surabaya and wondering if the timing is right?
We constantly update this blog post to bring you the latest data on housing prices in Surabaya and what they mean for buyers in 2026.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Surabaya.
So, is now a good time?
As of early 2026, buying property in Surabaya is a "rather yes" decision for patient buyers who negotiate well and focus on liquid neighborhoods.
The strongest signal is that Indonesia's national primary home prices grew only around 1% year-on-year in early 2025, meaning the market is not overheated and leaves room for negotiation.
Another strong signal is that government support remains in place, with VAT incentives on new homes and relaxed down payment rules extended into 2026, which helps keep transactions moving and prices stable.
Local fundamentals also look solid: Surabaya's economy grew 5.76% recently (the highest in East Java), inflation stayed low at around 1.2%, and rental demand remains steady from students, professionals, and industrial workers.
The best investment strategy is to target mid-market landed homes or apartments in established areas like Darmo, Manyar, Gubeng, or the Pakuwon Indah corridor, hold for at least five years, and consider renting out if you want income while you wait for appreciation.
This is not financial or investment advice, we do not know your personal situation, and you should always do your own research before making any property purchase.
Is it smart to buy now in Surabaya, or should I wait as of 2026?
Do real estate prices look too high in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, property prices in Surabaya are not broadly stretched beyond fundamentals, though prime areas like West Surabaya's master-planned communities do feel expensive relative to local wages.
One clear on-the-ground signal is that developers and sellers are leaning heavily on incentives (VAT relief, freebies, flexible payment terms) rather than cutting headline prices, which suggests list prices are sticky but effective prices are more negotiable.
Another signal is that price-to-income multiples in Surabaya typically sit between 11 and 15 times household income, which is tight but not wildly out of line for a major Indonesian city, and gross rental yields around 4% to 6% suggest investors are not paying bubble-level premiums.
You can also read our latest update regarding the housing prices in Surabaya.
Does a property price drop look likely in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the likelihood of a meaningful property price decline in Surabaya over the next 12 months is low, with a broad nominal drop of more than 10% estimated at only about 10% to 15% probability.
A more plausible scenario is a mild nominal decline of 0% to minus 5% in weaker pockets or overpriced listings, which we estimate has about a 35% to 45% probability, while the citywide market stays roughly flat or edges up slightly.
The single most important macro factor that would increase the odds of a price drop in Surabaya is a sharp rise in mortgage rates, because most buyers rely on bank financing and affordability is already tight at current price-to-income levels.
However, this factor is unlikely to materialize soon because Bank Indonesia has already cut rates since late 2024 and has signaled its focus on improving credit transmission to lending rates, meaning mortgage affordability should stay stable or improve in the coming months.
Finally, please note that we cover the price trends for next year in our pack about the property market in Surabaya.
Could property prices jump again in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the likelihood of a renewed price surge (above 8% nominal growth) in Surabaya within the next 12 months is low to medium, estimated at about 15% to 25% probability.
The most likely outcome is modest growth of 0% to 4% nominal for the overall Surabaya market, with prime areas like Pakuwon Indah and Citraland potentially outperforming that range.
The single biggest demand-side trigger that could drive prices to jump again in Surabaya is faster mortgage credit growth, which would happen if Bank Indonesia's rate cuts translate into meaningfully lower effective borrowing costs for homebuyers.
Please also note that we regularly publish and update real estate price forecasts for Surabaya here.
Are we in a buyer or a seller market in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, Surabaya is mildly a buyer's market, meaning patient buyers who do their homework have more negotiating power than they would in a hot market.
While exact months-of-inventory data for Surabaya is limited, the slow price growth environment (around 1% nationally) typically means supply is adequate and sellers cannot dictate terms, giving buyers room to push back on asking prices.
The share of listings with price reductions or seller incentives appears elevated, as developers actively use VAT relief eligibility and freebies to close deals, which is another sign that seller leverage is weaker than it was during boom years.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Indonesia. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Are homes overpriced, or fairly priced in Surabaya as of 2026?
Are homes overpriced versus rents or versus incomes in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, homes in Surabaya look fairly priced to slightly stretched versus rents (with gross yields around 4% to 6%) but tight versus incomes, especially for prime landed houses in desirable neighborhoods.
The estimated price-to-rent ratio in Surabaya suggests that buying costs around 17 to 25 times annual rent in most areas, which is on the higher end but not wildly above the 15 to 20 range that typically signals balance in Indonesian cities.
The price-to-income multiple in Surabaya typically runs between 11 and 15 times annual household income, which exceeds the 5 to 8 times benchmark common in more affordable global markets, but is normal for Indonesia's major cities where mortgage financing bridges the gap.
Finally please note that you will have all the indicators you need in our property pack covering the real estate market in Surabaya.
Are home prices above the long-term average in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, home prices in Surabaya are close to their long-term trend rather than significantly above it, meaning this does not look like a bubble peak.
The recent 12-month price change in Surabaya's primary market tracks Indonesia's national pattern of roughly 1% year-on-year growth, which is well below the 5% to 8% annual gains seen in some boom periods before 2020.
In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, Surabaya property prices are roughly flat to slightly positive versus the prior cycle peak, since local inflation has been low (around 1.2% year-on-year in early 2025) and nominal price growth has been modest.
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What local changes could move prices in Surabaya as of 2026?
Are big infrastructure projects coming to Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, Surabaya's price-sensitive story is less about one mega-project and more about connectivity improvements and growth corridors defined in the city's new spatial plan (RTRW 2025 to 2045), which guides where development, roads, and intensification will happen.
The timeline for these changes is long-term since the RTRW spans two decades, but markets tend to price in access and activity center improvements first in areas that gain new connectivity or zoning for denser residential use.
For the latest updates on the local projects, you can read our property market analysis about Surabaya here.
Are zoning or building rules changing in Surabaya as of 2026?
The most important zoning and building rule change in Surabaya is the city's updated technical guidance for building approvals (PBG), which formalizes and tightens the process for getting construction permits.
As of early 2026, the net effect of these stricter approval rules is likely to slow informal or marginal supply while favoring compliant developers, which could support prices in areas where land is already constrained and new stock is harder to deliver quickly.
The areas most affected by these rule changes in Surabaya are established neighborhoods with limited vacant land, like parts of Darmo, Gubeng, and Tegalsari, where any supply delays can tighten the market for existing homes.
Are foreign-buyer or mortgage rules changing in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, both foreign-buyer eligibility rules and mortgage conditions in Indonesia are stable to supportive, which should keep transaction activity moving without adding new price pressure from regulatory tightening.
On the foreign-buyer side, Indonesia's framework under PP 18/2021 continues to allow foreigners to buy certain apartments and properties under specific tenure types and minimum price thresholds, which mainly affects demand for higher-end condos in Surabaya's premium areas.
On the mortgage side, Bank Indonesia's macroprudential easing (including relaxed loan-to-value rules and effectively zero down payment options for qualifying buyers) has been extended into 2026, making financing less of a barrier than it would be in a tightening cycle.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Indonesia.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Indonesia versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
Will it be easy to find tenants in Surabaya as of 2026?
Is the renter pool growing faster than new supply in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, renter demand and new rental supply in Surabaya appear roughly balanced citywide, but in prime job-connected pockets the renter pool is growing faster than new stock can be delivered.
The clearest signal of renter demand in Surabaya is the city's strong economic momentum, with GRDP growth of 5.76% (the highest in East Java) and steady inflows of students, professionals, and industrial workers who need housing.
On the supply side, the pace of new completions in Surabaya is moderated by the city's formal building approval process (PBG), which slows marginal or informal supply and keeps new rental units from flooding the market all at once.
Are days-on-market for rentals falling in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, days-on-market for rentals in Surabaya is estimated at around 2 to 5 weeks for well-priced units in desirable areas, with no dramatic decline but also no signs of softening.
The difference between best areas and weaker areas is significant: rentals in neighborhoods like Darmo, Manyar, and Pakuwon Indah tend to lease quickly (often within 2 to 3 weeks), while overpriced units in less convenient locations can sit for 2 to 3 months or longer.
One common reason days-on-market stays low in Surabaya's prime areas is steady year-round demand from university students and corporate transferees, which smooths out the seasonal swings seen in other markets.
Are vacancies dropping in the best areas of Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, vacancy rates in Surabaya's best-performing rental areas like Darmo, Manyar, Gubeng, Pakuwon Indah, Citraland, and Rungkut are estimated at around 4% to 8%, and they appear stable to slightly tightening as demand stays solid.
These best areas typically have lower vacancies than the overall Surabaya market, where weaker locations or buildings with many similar competing units can see vacancies of 10% or higher.
One practical sign that best areas are tightening first in Surabaya is that landlords in places like Pakuwon Indah and Manyar can now ask for full-year upfront payment more often, whereas landlords in weaker areas still have to offer flexible terms to attract tenants.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current rent levels in Surabaya.
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Am I buying into a tightening market in Surabaya as of 2026?
Is for-sale inventory shrinking in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, for-sale inventory in Surabaya appears flat to slightly rising overall compared to last year, though it is shrinking in a few prime pockets where owners feel no pressure to sell at current prices.
Estimating months-of-supply in Surabaya is challenging because centralized MLS-style data is limited, but the slow price growth environment suggests supply is adequate for demand, meaning buyers are not competing in a severely tight market.
In prime locations like Pakuwon Indah and Darmo, inventory can feel tighter because owners are more willing to wait for their price, while in less desirable areas listings accumulate and stay on market longer.
Are homes selling faster in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the median time-to-sell for homes in Surabaya is estimated at around 2 to 4 months for correctly priced resale properties, and this pace has been roughly stable rather than speeding up dramatically.
Year-over-year, median days-on-market in Surabaya has not changed significantly, reflecting a market where pricing discipline matters more than momentum, with well-priced prime units selling in 3 to 8 weeks while overpriced listings can sit for 6 months or longer.
Are new listings slowing down in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, new for-sale listings in Surabaya are not materially slowing down, as the market remains active with a steady churn of both resale and developer inventory.
The seasonal pattern in Surabaya typically sees more listings in the first half of the year, and current levels appear normal rather than unusually low, partly because VAT incentive deadlines can pull forward both buyer and seller activity.
If anything, new listings may temporarily increase as developers and sellers try to capture government incentives before they expire, which keeps the market from freezing even when price appreciation is limited.
Is new construction failing to keep up in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, new housing completions in Surabaya appear roughly adequate for overall demand, though in some high-demand sub-areas the pace of formal development is not keeping up with buyer interest.
The trend in permits and completions is steady but moderated by Surabaya's building approval process (PBG), which has become more formalized and can slow developers who are not fully compliant.
The single biggest bottleneck limiting new construction in Surabaya is the combination of limited vacant land in established areas and the stricter approval process, which means supply constraints are most acute in desirable central and west Surabaya neighborhoods.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Indonesia compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
Will it be easy to sell later in Surabaya as of 2026?
Is resale liquidity strong enough in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, resale liquidity in Surabaya is reasonably strong for mainstream properties in established neighborhoods, meaning well-priced homes typically find buyers within a few months.
The median days-on-market for resale homes in Surabaya is estimated at 2 to 4 months for correctly priced properties, which is in line with a healthy liquidity benchmark for Indonesian secondary cities where transactions take longer than in Jakarta.
The property characteristic that most improves resale liquidity in Surabaya is location in a well-known, access-friendly neighborhood (like Darmo, Manyar, or Rungkut) with good flood history, since buyers strongly prefer established areas with proven livability.
Is selling time getting longer in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, selling time in Surabaya is broadly stable compared to last year, with no significant lengthening for correctly priced properties in desirable areas.
The current median days-on-market in Surabaya ranges from about 3 weeks for prime, well-priced units to 6 months or more for overpriced or less desirable listings, creating a bimodal pattern where pricing accuracy matters more than overall market conditions.
One clear reason selling time can lengthen in Surabaya is affordability pressure: if a seller prices above what local incomes can support (given the already tight price-to-income ratios), the property simply waits until either the price drops or a well-financed buyer appears.
Is it realistic to exit with profit in Surabaya as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the likelihood of selling with a profit in Surabaya is medium, assuming a holding period of at least 5 years and a well-bought property in a liquid neighborhood.
The estimated minimum holding period that most often makes exiting with profit realistic in Surabaya is about 5 years, which gives time for modest price appreciation (roughly 2% to 5% per year nominal) to overcome transaction costs.
The total round-trip cost drag in Surabaya (including notary fees, transfer taxes, agent commissions, and other buying and selling costs) is estimated at roughly 10% to 15% of the property value, which is around 150 to 300 million IDR (approximately $9,000 to $18,000 USD or 8,500 to 17,000 EUR) on a typical mid-market home.
The factor that most increases profit odds in Surabaya is buying below market (through negotiation in the current buyer-friendly environment) and targeting high-demand segments like mid-market landed homes in established areas, which consistently attract end-user buyers.
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What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Surabaya, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can ... and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why it's authoritative | How we used it |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Indonesia Residential Property Survey Q1 2025 | Indonesia's central bank reporting directly from a nationwide developer survey. | We used it to anchor the direction and pace of primary home price growth and sales momentum. We also relied on its financing indicators to explain what's driving price moves. |
| Bank Indonesia SHPR Q1 2025 PDF | The original, citable report document with exact figures. | We pulled the national RPPI growth figure and sales breakdowns from this PDF. We used those as a baseline to interpret what national trends mean for Surabaya. |
| Reuters Bank Indonesia Rate Decision | Top-tier wire service with direct quotes from Bank Indonesia. | We used it to frame the interest rate backdrop heading into 2026. We also used it for context on inflation and growth expectations. |
| BPS Surabaya Inflation Data | Official statistics office for Surabaya with CPI-based inflation. | We used it to anchor local inflation and reason about real home price growth. We compared nominal price changes against this inflation rate. |
| BPS Surabaya GRDP Publication | Official BPS publication describing Surabaya's local economic output. | We used it to ground the local fundamentals that support housing demand. We avoided over-relying on Jakarta-centric national narratives. |
| BPS Indonesia Wage Statistics | Official BPS dataset with consistent wage definitions and updates. | We used it as a conservative benchmark for income when calculating price-to-income ratios. We stress-tested affordability against these figures. |
| Surabaya City Government Economic News | Official city website attributing key numbers to BPS Surabaya. | We used it as a Surabaya-specific nowcast on growth and momentum. We treated it as context supporting the BPS data. |
| Surabaya PBG Mayor Regulation | Official JDIH legal publication with actual rule text. | We used it to explain permitting mechanics that influence new supply speed. We highlighted how this affects construction timelines in certain districts. |
| Surabaya RTRW 2025-2045 Spatial Plan | The city's official spatial planning law for zoning and land use. | We used it to identify growth corridors and land-use priorities. We kept infrastructure analysis specific to Surabaya rather than generic Indonesia. |
| Indonesia Tax Authority VAT Incentive | Official tax authority explaining the VAT DTP incentive and legal basis. | We used it to quantify policy support for transaction volume in 2025-2026. We explained why incentives may be more common than headline price cuts. |
| Ministry of Finance VAT Incentive News | Finance ministry describing the incentive from fiscal policy perspective. | We used it to cross-check the intent and scope of the housing incentive. We confirmed policy motivation alongside the tax authority's technical note. |
| Kontan LTV Extension Reporting | Major Indonesian business outlet reporting specifically on Bank Indonesia policy. | We used it to support the claim that macroprudential easing extends into 2026. We treated it as secondary confirmation while keeping Bank Indonesia as the primary authority. |
| PP No. 18/2021 JDIH BPK | Official legal database entry for the regulation governing land and strata rights. | We used it to ground what foreigners can legally buy in Indonesia. We kept the foreign ownership rules section verifiable and specific. |
| Permen ATR/BPN No. 18/2021 | Government regulation portal listing the ministerial regulation on land rights. | We used it to triangulate the legal framework under PP 18/2021. We explained process changes and compliance considerations for buyers. |
We created this infographic to give you a simple idea of how much it costs to buy property in different parts of Indonesia. As you can see, it breaks down price ranges and property types for popular cities in the country. We hope this makes it easier to explore your options and understand the market.
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