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SUMMARY
Yes. Seoul apartment prices are finally cooling, but the cooling is concentrated in transactions and expensive districts rather than a citywide price fall.
The clearest break is at the top of the market. Gangnam and Seocho are falling while several cheaper districts are still posting unusually strong weekly gains, so Seoul is behaving less like one market and more like two markets moving in opposite directions.
Demand has weakened faster than prices. Land transaction permit filings fell by roughly 65% from April to August, which suggests buyers have already stepped back even though the citywide price index is still positive.
Listings are now moving in the opposite direction to transactions. Seoul apartment supply for sale rose by about 11.5% in roughly a month, giving buyers more choice just as deal activity is thinning out.
Policy is reshaping where demand goes rather than simply destroying it. Tighter mortgage caps hit expensive apartments hardest, while homes below the upper price bands remain much easier to finance and are attracting more owner-occupier demand.
Higher interest rates are reinforcing the same split. Gangnam buyers face huge cash requirements because of loan caps, while buyers in cheaper districts can still borrow more but now face noticeably higher monthly payments.
The rental market is the main reason a broad correction still looks premature. Seoul jeonse prices remain firm, so households waiting for cheaper purchase prices are still paying more to rent in many districts.
Supply is not arriving fast enough to create a clean citywide reset. Near-term completions are weak, while much of the larger redevelopment pipeline will only matter years from now.
First-time buyers are still active, especially below the luxury end of the market. That helps explain why outer Seoul can keep rising even while the most expensive districts lose momentum.
The real turning point will come if the cheaper northern and southwestern districts flatten while transactions stay depressed and jeonse growth fades. Gangnam has already corrected; the rest of Seoul has not followed yet.
For now, the best description is a top-down cooling cycle. Seoul's boom is cracking first in luxury districts and trading activity, while the lower and middle parts of the market remain much more resilient.
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Why does Seoul suddenly look like a cooler housing market?
Seoul apartment prices are finally losing some heat, but the slowdown is much stronger in expensive districts than across the city as a whole.
The latest Korea Real Estate Board weekly survey puts Seoul apartment prices up 0.22%. That is still a fast weekly increase, although it slowed from 0.29% one week earlier. The real change is happening in the districts that had been driving the boom. Gangnam fell 0.41%, Seocho fell 0.23%, and Songpa barely moved at +0.01%. Southeastern Seoul as a group slipped 0.12%.
Trading activity has weakened even more dramatically. Land transaction permit filings across Seoul fell to 3,538 in August, according to data from the Saeol civil-affairs system. April had recorded 10,165. In four months, that measure of incoming transactions fell by roughly 65%.
At the same time, apartments available for sale are becoming easier to find. Asil counted 67,382 Seoul apartment listings at the beginning of the latest month, compared with 60,409 around one month earlier. That is an increase of about 11.5%.
So there is now much more behind the “cooling” story than a slower weekly index. Deals are drying up, listings are growing and expensive neighborhoods are already recording price declines.
| Seoul market measure | Earlier level | Latest level | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Seoul apartment prices | +0.29% | +0.22% | Growth slowed |
| Gangnam weekly prices | -0.11% previous week | -0.41% | Decline accelerated |
| Seocho weekly prices | -0.05% previous week | -0.23% | Decline accelerated |
| Land permit filings | 10,165 in April | 3,538 in August | About -65% |
| Apartment listings | 60,409 | 67,382 | +11.5% |
Are Seoul apartment prices actually falling now?
No. Seoul apartment prices are still rising overall today, despite the much weaker mood around the market.
The latest weekly increase of 0.22% remains well above zero. The greater Seoul metropolitan area also rose 0.17%, while apartments nationwide gained 0.09%.
That distinction is important after such a strong run. Seoul does not need to fall for the market to cool. Prices can keep rising while transactions collapse, sellers become more flexible and monthly or weekly gains lose momentum.
The most recent mature transaction-price data also started from a very strong base. Seoul's official apartment transaction-price index was still almost 13% higher than a year earlier in April. In June, actual transaction prices rose across every apartment size category. Homes between 60 and 85 square meters gained 1.48% in a single month.
Calling Seoul a falling market today would be too early. The boom has clearly weakened, but citywide prices have not turned down.
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Is Gangnam finally going down?
Yes. Gangnam apartment prices are now genuinely falling, and the decline has become too large and persistent to dismiss as weekly noise.
Gangnam-gu has moved from a 0.01% increase in the first week of August to four consecutive weekly declines: 0.02%, 0.05%, 0.11% and now 0.41%. Seocho has followed a similar path and most recently fell 0.23%.
Actual deals are beginning to confirm the shift. A 161-square-meter apartment at Hanyang 3rd in Apgujeong sold for 7.5 billion won in July and then changed hands for 6.85 billion won in August. That is a 650 million won drop, close to 9%, in one month for the same-sized unit.
Broker reports show the pressure is broader than a single deal. In Gaepo, one local agent recently said sellers were taking 200 million to 300 million won off expected prices and still struggling to find buyers. Financing restrictions are particularly painful in Gangnam because buyers of apartments worth several billion won increasingly need enormous amounts of cash.
The latest tax changes have added another reason to hesitate. Owners of very expensive homes face less favorable tax treatment than buyers and owners farther down the Seoul price ladder.
For now, Gangnam is the clearest part of Seoul where “cooling” has already become an actual price correction.
Why are Seoul prices still rising if Gangnam is falling?
Cheaper parts of Seoul are rising fast enough to offset Gangnam's decline.
The gap is striking. In the latest Korea Real Estate Board survey, Seongbuk gained 0.54%, Jungnang 0.52%, Nowon 0.50%, Gangbuk 0.45% and Dongdaemun 0.42%. Southwest Seoul is hot too: Gangseo rose 0.45%, Gwanak 0.43%, Guro 0.41% and Geumcheon 0.37%.
Across the 14 districts north of the Han River, apartment prices rose an average 0.36% in one week. The 11 districts south of the river averaged just 0.09%.
Individual transactions make that rotation easier to picture. An 84-square-meter apartment at Daewoo in Gangbuk's Ui-dong went from 660 million won to 755 million won in roughly two weeks. A 78-square-meter Samsung Raemian apartment in Guro moved from 980 million won to 1.08 billion won within about a month.
These districts are also where normal owner-occupiers can still buy with mortgage financing. Tax changes and tighter loan caps hit a 4 billion or 6 billion won apartment very differently from an 800 million or 1 billion won one.
Seoul currently contains two very different housing markets. Gangnam is correcting while several cheaper districts are still rising at an unusually fast pace.
| District | Latest weekly apartment-price change |
|---|---|
| Gangnam | -0.41% |
| Seocho | -0.23% |
| Songpa | +0.01% |
| Seongbuk | +0.54% |
| Jungnang | +0.52% |
| Nowon | +0.50% |
| Gangseo | +0.45% |
| Gwanak | +0.43% |
| Guro | +0.41% |
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Have Seoul homebuyers finally backed away?
Yes. Seoul homebuyers have pulled back sharply lately, even though enough buyers remain to keep cheaper neighborhoods moving higher.
Land transaction permit filings give us the clearest early reading. They reached 10,165 in April and fell to 3,538 in August. That is roughly a two-thirds reduction in only four months.
The retreat is even stronger in expensive Seoul. Compared with April, August filings fell 78.6% in Gangnam, 77.9% in Seocho and 75.5% in Songpa. Across those three districts, filings dropped from 1,607 to only 368.
Outer districts have slowed too, but much less. Dobong was down about 40% from the spring peak and Geumcheon about 39%. Buyers have therefore become cautious almost everywhere, while the retreat is especially severe where high prices make the new loan restrictions hardest to absorb.
This is one of the strongest pieces of evidence that Seoul really is cooling. Prices can react slowly when owners refuse to sell cheaply. Transactions react much faster when buyers decide the numbers no longer work.
Are Seoul sellers finally cutting their prices?
Some Seoul sellers are finally negotiating, especially in Gangnam, while the city still has too many tight neighborhoods to call it a buyer's market.
The change in listings is significant. Asil counted roughly 67,400 Seoul apartments for sale recently, up from about 60,400 one month earlier. During June and July, listings had stayed around the low-60,000 range even as transactions weakened. Now available inventory is clearly building.
Gangnam brokers are also describing real discounts rather than tiny cosmetic adjustments. Cuts of 200 million to 300 million won have appeared in parts of the district, and the Apgujeong transaction discussed above was 650 million won below an earlier same-sized sale.
Conditions look completely different in some cheaper areas. A broker in Guro recently reported only four available units in a complex with more than 1,000 households, with asking prices 100 million to 200 million won above recent transactions.
That contrast explains why Seoul's headline index remains positive. Buyers have gained negotiating power at the top of the market, but scarcity is still giving sellers leverage elsewhere.
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Did Korea's new housing rules actually cool Seoul?
Yes. Korea's latest housing rules have clearly weakened Seoul demand, although much of the effect has been redirected from expensive apartments toward cheaper ones.
Mortgage limits now become much tighter as the home price rises. Buyers of homes worth up to 1.5 billion won can borrow as much as 600 million won under the relevant cap. The maximum falls to 400 million won for homes between 1.5 and 2.5 billion won and only 200 million won above 2.5 billion won.
That structure hits Gangnam unusually hard. Someone buying a 4 billion won apartment cannot compensate for a high price with a proportionately large mortgage. The cash requirement becomes enormous.
Property-tax changes pushed in the same direction. The government has softened parts of its original proposal, but the core rules still place more pressure on multiple-home owners and owners of very expensive property. Capital-gains deductions are also becoming less generous at the top end.
The geography of the market changed almost exactly as we would expect from those rules. Gangnam and Seocho weakened, while owner-occupier demand accelerated in districts where apartments remain closer to the mortgage-friendly price bands.
The policy has worked far better at cooling expensive Seoul than Seoul as a whole.
Are higher interest rates making Seoul apartment prices weaker?
Yes. Higher Korean interest rates are now adding real pressure to an apartment market that was already constrained by tougher mortgage rules.
The Bank of Korea increased its base rate from 2.50% to 2.75% in July and then to 3.00% in August. Buyers have therefore absorbed two rate hikes in quick succession.
This is especially painful for households close to their borrowing limit. A buyer in Nowon using most of the 600 million won mortgage allowance faces a noticeably higher monthly payment than earlier in the summer. Local brokers there are already reporting that some younger buyers are struggling to borrow the full amount they expected.
Expensive districts face a different problem: loan caps force buyers to contribute far more cash upfront. In Gangnam, local agents have openly questioned how many buyers can produce 3 billion or 4 billion won in cash for a purchase.
The Bank of Korea's own language tells us how far the market has moved. After its latest rate increase, it acknowledged that some parts of Seoul had slowed, but said overall housing prices in Seoul and surrounding areas were still increasing at a high pace. The central bank also flagged accelerating household debt as a continuing financial-stability risk.
Rates are now working against Seoul housing much more forcefully than earlier this year. They have not pushed the citywide index into decline yet.
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Are actual Seoul apartment deals getting cheaper too?
Only in parts of Seoul. The latest fully developed transaction data still show strong citywide prices, while newer deals in Gangnam point to a more recent correction.
There is a timing issue here. Korea Real Estate Board weekly surveys react quickly, while official transaction-price indexes need completed and reported deals.
In June, Seoul transaction prices were still climbing rapidly. Apartments between 60 and 85 square meters gained 1.48% month on month, those between 40 and 60 square meters gained 1.21%, and apartments larger than 135 square meters rose 0.94%.
Newer individual transactions now look softer in expensive districts. The Apgujeong Hanyang example, where a 161-square-meter unit dropped from 7.5 billion to 6.85 billion won, is exactly the kind of completed sale we would expect to see if the weekly Gangnam correction is feeding into actual transaction indexes.
At the other end of the city, completed deals are still setting higher prices in places such as Gangbuk and Guro.
The next few official transaction-price releases will therefore be much more revealing than the older June numbers. For now, completed sales confirm a split market rather than a citywide fall.
Is Seoul's housing boom just moving into cheaper apartments?
Yes. Seoul's apartment boom has shifted strongly toward lower and mid-priced homes.
The earlier transaction mix already showed the change. In July, 81.2% of apartment transactions were below 1.5 billion won, up from 76.3% in June. Nowon recorded the largest number of deals, with strong activity also appearing in Jungnang, Gangseo, Guro, Seongbuk and Eunpyeong.
The latest weekly prices reinforce the same pattern. Several districts with large stocks of smaller and mid-sized apartments are gaining around 0.4% to 0.5% in a single week while Gangnam is falling.
There is a simple financial reason. A household buying below 1.5 billion won can still access up to 600 million won under the mortgage cap. Move above 2.5 billion won and the maximum falls to 200 million won. Tax pressure is also lighter on ordinary owner-occupied homes.
As seen above, transaction filings have now fallen sharply even in the cheaper districts, so this rotation could eventually lose energy too. Prices have not reflected that weakness yet.
Anyone waiting for a Seoul-wide correction should watch these districts more closely than Gangnam now. If Nowon, Seongbuk, Jungnang, Guro and Gangseo turn flat, the cooling story becomes much harder to argue against.
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Are Seoul rents cooling along with apartment prices?
No. Seoul apartment rents remain strong, which makes a deep sale-price correction harder to sustain.
The latest Korea Real Estate Board survey showed Seoul jeonse prices rising another 0.21% in one week. Seongbuk and Gangbuk each gained 0.38%, while Nowon and Geumcheon rose 0.37%.
The split with Gangnam appears here too. Gangnam jeonse fell 0.13% and Seocho dropped 0.10%, while Songpa still gained 0.28%.
Earlier transaction data showed Seoul apartment jeonse prices more than 10% higher year on year in April. Smaller and mid-sized homes were still posting strong monthly rent increases later in the summer.
Rental availability is tight enough in some neighborhoods that brokers describe prospective tenants waiting for apartments to appear. That gives renters a reason to consider buying rather than waiting for much cheaper housing.
A broad Seoul correction would become far easier to believe if sale prices and rents weakened together. We are nowhere near that point yet.
| Rental-market measure | Latest direction |
|---|---|
| Seoul apartment jeonse | +0.21% weekly |
| Seongbuk jeonse | +0.38% |
| Gangbuk jeonse | +0.38% |
| Nowon jeonse | +0.37% |
| Geumcheon jeonse | +0.37% |
| Gangnam jeonse | -0.13% |
| Seocho jeonse | -0.10% |
| Songpa jeonse | +0.28% |
Is Seoul finally building enough apartments to cool prices?
No. Seoul's supply pipeline is improving on paper, but the apartments actually becoming available remain too limited to create much downward pressure today.
According to Ministry of Land statistics, Seoul completed 15,160 homes in the first half of this year, down 52.1% from 31,618 during the same period one year earlier. Apartment completions fell even faster, from 29,420 to 12,251, a 58.4% drop.
The outlook has improved somewhat since earlier forecasts. A newer Korea Real Estate Board and Budongsan114 estimate now expects 49,668 Seoul apartments to become available between the second half of this year and the first half of 2028. That includes 18,994 in the second half of this year, 22,428 next year and 8,246 in the first half of 2028.
Those numbers are more encouraging than some older “supply cliff” forecasts, so we should not exaggerate the shortage. Even so, new supply remains modest relative to the size of Seoul and is unevenly distributed by district.
Redevelopment could eventually change the picture. Seoul has identified 85 redevelopment and reconstruction areas representing about 85,000 homes that could start construction between 2026 and 2028. The city's current project tracker shows only 4 projects representing 2,138 planned homes having reached the construction-start category this year, while another 6 zones representing 4,938 homes reached the management/disposition stage.
Those future projects matter later. People looking for a place to live now can only rent or buy homes that already exist or will be completed soon.
| Seoul supply measure | Latest figure |
|---|---|
| H1 housing completions | 15,160 |
| Year-on-year change | -52.1% |
| H1 apartment completions | 12,251 |
| Apartment-completion change | -58.4% |
| H2 current-year move-ins forecast | 18,994 |
| Next-year move-ins forecast | 22,428 |
| H1 2028 move-ins forecast | 8,246 |
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Are first-time buyers still buying Seoul apartments?
Yes. First-time buyers are still unusually active in Seoul, although higher rates could make that harder to sustain.
Registration data showed 7,547 first-home purchases in Seoul in July, the highest monthly total in nearly five years. Buyers in their 20s and 30s were heavily represented.
That sounds surprising while mortgage rules are tightening. The rental market helps explain it. Jeonse prices have risen strongly, rental listings are scarce in some neighborhoods, and buyers who stay below the expensive end of the market can still access much more mortgage financing than someone purchasing a luxury apartment.
The strong first-time-buyer numbers also fit the geographic pattern we are seeing now. Demand has moved toward places such as Nowon, Jungnang, Seongbuk and Guro rather than disappearing entirely.
The newer August transaction-permit data do suggest that even this part of the market is losing some energy. Filings fell across every type of district, and brokers in Nowon have begun reporting weaker buyer activity after the two rate hikes.
First-time buyers are keeping the lower end of Seoul resilient for now, but this is one area where the next few months could look weaker than the previous data.
Has Seoul finally become a buyer's market?
No. Seoul buyers have more leverage than they did a few months ago, especially in expensive neighborhoods, but affordability is still terrible.
A buyer looking in Gangnam can now encounter discounted units and sellers who are more willing to negotiate. That is a major change from the earlier frenzy.
Yet the same buyer faces stricter mortgage caps and a 3.00% Bank of Korea base rate. Someone purchasing a 3 billion or 4 billion won apartment may have to finance most of it with cash.
Moving to cheaper Seoul does not completely solve the problem. Districts where financing still works are exactly the ones posting some of the strongest current price increases.
The preceding rise was also enormous. Seoul apartment values climbed sharply over the past year, with the highest increases concentrated in premium neighborhoods. A few weeks of falling Gangnam prices do not erase that accumulated jump.
Conditions are certainly better for buyers who already have substantial cash and can wait for a motivated seller. For an ordinary household relying on a mortgage, Seoul remains brutally expensive.
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What would prove that Seoul apartment prices have really turned?
Seoul apartment prices will have clearly turned once weakness spreads beyond Gangnam and starts showing up in citywide prices, rents and completed transactions at the same time.
Gangnam has already crossed that line. Four straight weekly declines and a 0.41% latest drop make the high-end correction difficult to dispute.
The next test is northern and southwestern Seoul. Seongbuk at +0.54%, Jungnang at +0.52%, Nowon at +0.50% and Guro at +0.41% are still far too strong to describe the entire city as cooling in price terms.
Transactions are further along. August permit filings falling to 3,538 from 10,165 in April is already a major demand contraction. Listings rising 11.5% in roughly a month adds weight to that evidence. As pointed out above, however, fewer buyers have not yet translated into lower prices across most districts.
Rents are the third test. Seoul jeonse still rising 0.21% weekly tells us housing remains scarce enough to support demand.
If the outer districts flatten while transaction filings stay depressed and jeonse growth fades, the debate will be basically over. Seoul will have moved from a selective correction into a broad one.
| What to watch | Where Seoul stands now | What would confirm a broad turn |
|---|---|---|
| Citywide sale prices | +0.22% weekly | Sustained flat or negative readings |
| Gangnam | -0.41% | Already correcting |
| Northern Seoul | Several districts around +0.5% | Gains approach zero |
| Permit filings | Down about 65% from April peak | Stay depressed |
| Listings | Up about 11.5% recently | Continue rising |
| Jeonse | +0.21% weekly | Flat or falling |
| Actual sale prices | Mixed by district | Broad monthly declines |
Could Seoul apartment prices heat up again?
Yes. Seoul apartment prices could accelerate again if Gangnam stabilizes before demand in cheaper districts fades.
Supply remains the biggest reason to take that risk seriously. Current completions are low, Seoul has very little room to absorb another demand surge through immediately available new apartments, and redevelopment projects take years to become usable homes.
Rents add more pressure. Jeonse is still rising quickly across much of the city, which makes waiting expensive for households that already want to buy.
The current rotation is another possible route back to stronger citywide growth. If Nowon, Seongbuk, Jungnang, Gangseo and Guro keep rising while Gangnam simply stops falling, Seoul's headline index could accelerate without another luxury boom.
There are stronger brakes now than earlier in the year. Interest rates are higher, mortgage caps are tougher, taxation is less favorable for expensive property and transaction activity has already fallen sharply.
That makes another immediate buying frenzy less likely. It does not remove the underlying shortage that helped create the previous one.
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So, are Seoul apartment prices finally cooling?
Yes, but only partly: Seoul's housing market is cooling hard in transactions and expensive districts, while apartment prices across the city are still rising.
The strongest change is demand. August land transaction permit filings were roughly 65% below their April peak, filings across the three Gangnam districts were down about 77%, and Seoul listings increased around 11.5% in roughly one month. Buyers are clearly more hesitant today.
Gangnam has gone further. Four consecutive weekly declines have culminated in a 0.41% drop, Seocho is down 0.23%, and some completed luxury deals are coming in hundreds of millions of won below earlier sales.
But the rest of Seoul keeps the answer from becoming a simple “yes.” Seongbuk, Jungnang and Nowon are still gaining around half a percent per week. Jeonse rents continue rising. First-time buyers remain active. Near-term apartment supply is limited.
The market has reached an important turning point, just not a citywide correction yet.
The sharpest conclusion today is that Seoul's apartment boom is cracking from the top down. Gangnam has cooled, trading activity across the city has cooled, and sellers are starting to feel more pressure. The cheaper half of Seoul is still resisting that slowdown.
If those outer districts begin to flatten while transaction activity stays this weak, Seoul apartment prices will finally be cooling in the full sense of the word. We are close to that threshold, but we have not crossed it yet.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Seoul apartment prices are genuinely cooling by separating price momentum from transaction activity, listings, district-level divergence, financing conditions, rents and near-term housing supply. We treated the citywide headline as only one part of the answer because Gangnam can fall while cheaper districts continue rising.
We prioritized fast-moving indicators for the turning point and slower official data for confirmation. Weekly apartment and jeonse movements from the Korea Real Estate Board were used to track current price direction, while completed transaction-price data and Seoul Metropolitan Government analysis were used to check whether the weekly shift is feeding through into actual deals.
Demand was assessed through land transaction permit activity, apartment listings and district-level transaction evidence. We used individual sales and broker observations only to illustrate patterns already visible in broader data, not to infer a citywide trend from one apartment or one neighborhood.
Financing and policy were treated as part of the market mechanism rather than as background commentary. Mortgage-cap changes from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, property-tax measures from the Korean government and National Tax Service, and the July and August Bank of Korea rate decisions were used to explain why expensive districts have weakened more sharply than lower-priced areas.
Supply was split into homes completing soon and projects that may matter years later. Ministry of Land completion statistics, Seoul's redevelopment and reconstruction program, the city's project-stage tracker and the Korea Real Estate Board/Budongsan114 move-in forecast were used to avoid treating a long-term construction pipeline as if it were immediately available inventory.
Key sources used for this analysis include: Korea Real Estate Board on the latest weekly apartment and jeonse price movements, the previous Korea Real Estate Board weekly release, Seoul Metropolitan Government on official apartment transaction-price data, the Ministry of Land real transaction-price disclosure system, Seoul Economic Daily on permit activity, listings and broker evidence, the Ministry of Land on the mortgage-cap framework, the Bank of Korea's July 2026 rate decision, the Bank of Korea's August 2026 rate decision, Seoul's 85,000-home redevelopment and reconstruction plan, Seoul's redevelopment project-stage tracker, SBS reporting on the apartment move-in forecast through the first half of 2028, and the Supreme Court Registration Information Square used for buyer-registration statistics.
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