Is now a good time to buy a property in New Zealand? (January 2026)

Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the New Zealand Property Pack

Everything you need to know before buying real estate is included in our New Zealand Property Pack

Is it smart to buy now in New Zealand, or should I wait as of 2026?

Do real estate prices look too high in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, property prices in New Zealand are still stretched relative to incomes (around six times the typical household income) but they sit well below the 2021 peak, so they are not at bubble highs anymore.

One clear on-the-ground signal is that homes in New Zealand are taking about 40 days to sell on average, which is not particularly fast and suggests buyers have time to negotiate rather than scramble.

Another supporting signal is that inventory across New Zealand climbed to around 35,000 listings, meaning there is plenty of choice and sellers cannot simply name their price.

You can also read our latest update regarding the housing prices in New Zealand.

Does a property price drop look likely in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, the likelihood of a sharp property price crash in New Zealand is low, though softer patches in specific regions remain possible.

A plausible range for the next 12 months is somewhere between a small decline of around 2% and a modest gain of around 5%, depending on how the economy performs.

The single most important factor that could push New Zealand property prices down would be a significant rise in unemployment, which would squeeze household incomes and force some sellers to accept lower offers.

However, the job market in New Zealand is not collapsing, and with interest rates already low, a severe shock from that angle looks unlikely in the near term.

Finally, please note that we cover the price trends for next year in our pack about the property market in New Zealand.

Could property prices jump again in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, the likelihood of a big price surge in New Zealand is medium at best, because structural limits are now in place that did not exist during the 2020 to 2021 boom.

A realistic upside range for the next 12 months is around 3% to 7%, which would feel like steady improvement rather than a runaway market.

The single biggest demand-side trigger that could push prices higher is continued rate cuts combined with the eased deposit requirements that took effect in December 2025, which would bring more first-home buyers and investors back into the market.

However, debt-to-income restrictions now cap how much buyers can borrow relative to their earnings, acting like a speed limiter that prevents another frenzy even if rates fall further.

Please also note that we regularly publish and update real estate price forecasts for New Zealand here.

Are we in a buyer or a seller market in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, the New Zealand property market leans toward buyers, or at least sits in balanced territory, giving purchasers more negotiating room than they had during the boom years.

Inventory levels translate to roughly five to six months of supply in many areas, which is above the three to four months that typically signals a seller-dominated market, so buyers can take their time.

While exact price-reduction data is not published nationally, the combination of rising listings (up about 11% year-on-year) and steady days-to-sell suggests many sellers are adjusting expectations, which means there is room to negotiate.

Are homes overpriced, or fairly priced in New Zealand as of 2026?

Are homes overpriced versus rents or versus incomes in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, homes in New Zealand look expensive relative to incomes but closer to fair value when compared to rents, depending on the city and property type.

The price-to-rent ratio in New Zealand is around 26 (based on an NZ$808,000 median price and roughly NZ$31,000 in annual rent), which is above the 15 to 20 range often seen in more balanced markets but not extreme by global standards.

The price-to-income multiple sits at approximately six times the typical household income, which is high compared to the three to four times ratio often considered affordable, confirming that New Zealand property remains a stretch for many buyers.

Finally please note that you will have all the indicators you need in our property pack covering the real estate market in New Zealand.

Are home prices above the long-term average in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, New Zealand home prices remain above their long-term historical average in real terms but sit roughly 15% below the 2021 cycle peak, so the market has already corrected from its frothiest point.

The recent 12-month price change has been modest, with medians edging up a few percent, which is slower than the double-digit annual gains seen before the pandemic.

When adjusted for inflation, New Zealand property prices have given back a meaningful chunk of the pandemic-era surge, though they have not returned to pre-boom levels and remain elevated compared to the early 2010s.

What local changes could move prices in New Zealand as of 2026?

Are big infrastructure projects coming to New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, the biggest infrastructure project likely to move property prices in New Zealand is Auckland's City Rail Link, which is on track to open in the second half of 2026 and will significantly cut travel times into the city centre.

The City Rail Link has been under construction for years and is now in its final testing phase, with Auckland Transport confirming the system is expected to be operational later this year, meaning the price effects on nearby suburbs could start showing soon.

For the latest updates on the local projects, you can read our property market analysis about New Zealand here.

Are zoning or building rules changing in New Zealand as of 2026?

The most significant zoning change being discussed in New Zealand relates to ongoing adjustments to the Medium Density Residential Standards and national planning direction, which determine how many townhouses and apartments can be built in residential areas.

As of January 2026, these rule changes are still evolving under political and legal review, and their net effect on New Zealand property prices is likely to be a gradual increase in supply that could moderate price growth in areas where intensification is permitted.

The areas most affected by these zoning changes in New Zealand are established suburbs in Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch where councils can now allow more multi-unit developments, potentially adding competition for existing standalone homes.

Are foreign-buyer or mortgage rules changing in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, mortgage rules in New Zealand have loosened slightly with the Reserve Bank easing deposit requirements from December 2025, which could support demand and put modest upward pressure on prices.

On the foreign-buyer side, New Zealand is introducing a targeted pathway for investor-visa holders to purchase very high-value homes (around NZ$5 million and above), but this affects only a thin slice of the prestige market rather than typical family homes.

The most impactful mortgage rule change is the LVR easing, which allows banks to write more low-deposit loans, making it easier for first-home buyers and some investors to enter the New Zealand property market.

You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in New Zealand.

Will it be easy to find tenants in New Zealand as of 2026?

Is the renter pool growing faster than new supply in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, the balance between renter demand and new rental supply in New Zealand is roughly even, meaning landlords should not expect the market to tighten dramatically but also should not fear a collapse in tenant interest.

Net migration to New Zealand remains positive at around 12,000 people over the year to October 2025, which continues to support renter demand, especially in Auckland and other major centres.

At the same time, new dwelling consents in New Zealand reached about 35,500 homes over the same period, which means a substantial pipeline of new rentals is coming to market and will compete for tenants.

Are days-on-market for rentals falling in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, there is no official national days-on-market series for rentals in New Zealand, but proxy indicators like soft rent growth and steady bond activity suggest rental properties are not flying off the market unusually fast.

In stronger areas like central Auckland suburbs (Mt Eden, Grey Lynn, Ponsonby) and good Wellington locations (Thorndon, Kelburn), rentals typically fill faster than in outer suburbs where new townhouse supply is heavier.

One common reason days-on-market falls in New Zealand rental hotspots is seasonal demand from students and returning workers at the start of the year, which briefly tightens supply in university towns and employment hubs.

Are vacancies dropping in the best areas of New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, vacancy rates in the best-performing rental areas of New Zealand, such as Mt Eden, Kingsland, and Newmarket in Auckland, or Riccarton and Merivale in Christchurch, tend to stay lower than the national average, though they are not plummeting.

These prime suburbs typically see tighter conditions because of proximity to employment, schools, and transport, while the overall New Zealand rental market remains more balanced due to new supply coming through.

One practical sign that the best areas are tightening first in New Zealand is when landlords in those suburbs start receiving multiple applications within a week of listing, while properties in outer areas sit for two or three weeks.

By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current rent levels in New Zealand.

Am I buying into a tightening market in New Zealand as of 2026?

Is for-sale inventory shrinking in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, for-sale inventory in New Zealand is not shrinking; in fact, it increased year-on-year to around 35,000 listings, giving buyers more choice than they had a year ago.

This translates to roughly five to six months of supply in many parts of New Zealand, which is above the three to four months that typically indicates a tight market, so buyers are not under pressure to rush.

Are homes selling faster in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, the median time to sell a home in New Zealand is around 40 days, which is steady rather than dramatically faster, suggesting the market is active but not frenzied.

Year-on-year, days-on-market in New Zealand has held relatively stable or edged down slightly, meaning properties are moving at a measured pace rather than accelerating into bidding-war territory.

Are new listings slowing down in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, new for-sale listings in New Zealand are not slowing down; they were up about 11% year-on-year in the latest data, meaning more sellers are coming to market rather than fewer.

New Zealand's listing activity typically picks up in spring and early summer (September to December) and slows over the Christmas period, so the current level is consistent with seasonal patterns rather than unusually low.

Is new construction failing to keep up in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, new construction in New Zealand is keeping pace reasonably well with demand, as around 35,500 new homes were consented over the past year, which is a substantial pipeline even if completions lag by 12 to 18 months.

Building consent numbers in New Zealand have been elevated for several years now, though month-to-month figures can wobble, and the overall trend suggests supply is not starved even if it is not overwhelming demand either.

One bottleneck that can slow new construction in New Zealand is consenting and planning delays at the council level, which can add months to project timelines and discourage smaller developers from starting new builds.

Will it be easy to sell later in New Zealand as of 2026?

Is resale liquidity strong enough in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, resale liquidity in New Zealand is reasonable, meaning a realistically priced home will typically find a buyer, but you should not expect instant sales or multiple offers in most areas.

The median days-on-market of around 40 days in New Zealand is within the range that property professionals consider healthy, as anything under 60 days generally suggests active buyer interest.

One property characteristic that most improves resale liquidity in New Zealand is location near good schools or public transport, as family-friendly homes in well-connected suburbs consistently attract more buyer attention.

Is selling time getting longer in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, selling time in New Zealand has not lengthened dramatically compared to last year; it remains at around 40 days nationally, which is stable rather than deteriorating.

The realistic range for most listings in New Zealand is between 30 days for well-priced homes in popular suburbs and 60 to 90 days for properties that are overpriced or in softer locations.

One clear reason selling time can lengthen in New Zealand is when sellers set prices based on 2021 peak values rather than current market conditions, which leads to stale listings and eventual price cuts.

Is it realistic to exit with profit in New Zealand as of 2026?

As of January 2026, the likelihood of exiting with a profit in New Zealand is medium to high if you hold for five or more years, but short-term flips carry real risk given transaction costs and modest expected price gains.

Most property advisors suggest a minimum holding period of five to seven years in New Zealand to absorb buying and selling costs and benefit from the long-term upward trend in prices.

Total round-trip costs in New Zealand, including agent fees, legal expenses, and other charges, typically add up to around 4% to 6% of the property value, which is roughly NZ$32,000 to NZ$48,000 on an NZ$800,000 home (about US$19,000 to US$29,000 or EUR 17,500 to EUR 26,500).

One factor that most increases your profit odds in New Zealand is buying in a suburb with upcoming infrastructure improvements or strong school zones, as these areas tend to see above-average price growth over time.

What sources have we used to write this blog article?

Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about New Zealand, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.

We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.

Source	Why It's Authoritative	How We Used It
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (OCR)	New Zealand's central bank that sets the policy rate driving mortgage pricing.	We used it to anchor borrowing conditions as of January 2026. We treated OCR moves as the clearest signal for mortgage rate direction.
Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ)	The industry body publishing nationwide sales, listings, and days-to-sell data.	We used it for market balance signals including days to sell, inventory, and median prices. We also used it to assess how far prices sit below their peak.
Stats NZ (Building Consents)	The official statistics agency reporting new dwelling consents.	We used it to judge whether new supply is keeping up with demand. We also used it to discuss the construction pipeline's effect on future prices.
Stats NZ (Migration)	The official measure of arrivals, departures, and net migration.	We used it to assess demand pressure from population inflows. We also used it to frame rental demand risk.
Tenancy Services (MBIE)	A government dataset built from lodged bonds showing real tenancy agreements.	We used it to ground rent comparisons and provide suburb-level median rents. We treated bond flows as a proxy for tenant demand.
Ministry of Housing and Urban Development	A government housing agency providing a rental inflation series.	We used it to describe rental inflation direction and regional differences. We triangulated rent pressure with bond data.
CoreLogic (Cotality) NZ	A major housing data provider with a published index methodology.	We used it to triangulate price trends behind the RBNZ housing series. We also used the methodology to justify why index movements are reliable.
QV House Price Index	A long-standing valuation firm with nationwide price coverage.	We used it as a second cross-check on price direction. We also used it to confirm whether the market is broadly flat, rising, or falling.
RBNZ (LVR Changes)	The central bank's official statement on deposit requirement rules.	We used it to assess whether credit availability is loosening for buyers. We treated LVR shifts as a near-term demand factor.
RBNZ (DTI Restrictions)	The primary policy source for debt-to-income lending limits.	We used it to explain why price surges may be capped even if rates fall. We treated DTI as a structural brake on speculative demand.
Auckland Transport (City Rail Link)	The official transport authority with updates on a major infrastructure project.	We used it to identify a 2026 catalyst likely to shift demand in specific suburbs. We treated it as a local upside factor, not a national driver.
Reuters	A major global outlet summarizing analyst polls and affordability data.	We used it to triangulate market expectations for 2026 price growth. We also used the six-times-income affordability framing.