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The Medan property market is experiencing steady growth in 2026, driven by regional economic expansion and improving infrastructure across North Sumatra.
In this article, we break down everything you need to know about current housing prices in Medan, from neighborhood trends to long-term forecasts.
We constantly update this blog post to give you the freshest data available on Medan residential real estate.
And if you're planning to buy a property in this place, you may want to download our pack covering the real estate market in Medan.
Insights
- Medium-sized landed homes in Medan are outperforming other segments with roughly 3.3% annual growth, while smaller homes have shown almost flat price movement over the past year.
- The price gap between Medan's most expensive district (Medan Polonia at around IDR 9.5 billion median) and mainstream areas (around IDR 1.2 billion) is nearly 8x, creating distinct market tiers.
- North Sumatra's real estate sector grew 10.69% year-on-year in Q3 2025, the highest among all economic sectors in the province, signaling strong underlying demand.
- Bank Indonesia's policy rate at 4.75% entering 2026 keeps mortgage affordability relatively healthy, and further rate cuts are expected through the year.
- Medan Baru district shows consistent 4% price growth and remains the most liquid prime market, benefiting from proximity to universities and central amenities.
- The Trans-Sumatra Toll Road network, including the operational Medan-Binjai section, is reshaping commuting patterns and lifting property values in peripheral districts.
- Apartments in Medan command around IDR 27 million per square meter, nearly three times higher than landed houses on a per-meter basis.
- Government housing support measures, including VAT exemptions and 100% loan-to-value ratios, continue to stimulate entry-level property demand in 2026.
- The 80% price range for Medan homes spans from roughly IDR 500 million to IDR 2 billion, reflecting significant diversity in the market.
What are the current property price trends in Medan as of 2026?
What is the average house price in Medan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the typical price for a landed house in Medan sits around IDR 1.2 billion (approximately $76,000 USD or €70,000 EUR), though this varies significantly depending on the district and property condition.
When looking at price per square meter for residential properties in Medan, you can expect to pay roughly IDR 10 to 14 million per square meter of built area ($630 to $890 USD or €590 to €820 EUR), with the midpoint around IDR 12 million being a good benchmark for mainstream family homes.
For context, the realistic price range that covers about 80% of property purchases in Medan spans from IDR 500 million to IDR 2 billion ($32,000 to $127,000 USD or €29,000 to €118,000 EUR), which means most buyers are shopping in this bracket rather than in the ultra-premium segments.
How much have property prices increased in Medan over the past 12 months?
Property prices in Medan have increased by approximately 3% year-on-year as of the first half of 2026, based on official index data from Bank Indonesia's residential property survey.
Looking at different property types, the price increases in Medan ranged from nearly flat for smaller homes to around 3.3% for medium-sized houses, while prime district listings occasionally showed short-term jumps of 4% to 7%.
The single most significant factor behind this price movement has been steady regional economic growth in North Sumatra, which recorded 4.55% GDP expansion in Q3 2025, keeping household incomes and housing demand on a positive trajectory.
Which neighborhoods have the fastest rising property prices in Medan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods with the fastest rising property prices in Medan include Medan Baru, Medan Tembung, and Medan Barat, all showing consistent positive momentum in listing medians over recent months.
In terms of annual price growth, Medan Baru is showing approximately 4% gains, Medan Tembung around 3%, and Medan Barat roughly 2%, with some micro-locations near popular amenities recording jumps as high as 5% to 7%.
The main demand driver in these neighborhoods is their combination of accessibility, proximity to jobs, universities, and retail centers, which makes them attractive for both owner-occupiers and investors seeking rental income.
By the way, you will find much more detailed price ranges across neighborhoods in our property pack covering the real estate market in Medan.
We have made this infographic to give you a quick and clear snapshot of the property market in Indonesia. It highlights key facts like rental prices, yields, and property costs both in city centers and outside, so you can easily compare opportunities. We’ve done some research and also included useful insights about the country’s economy, like GDP, population, and interest rates, to help you understand the bigger picture.
Which property types are increasing faster in value in Medan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the ranking of property types by value appreciation in Medan places medium-sized landed homes at the top, followed by larger landed homes, then apartments, with smaller homes showing the weakest performance.
The top-performing property type, medium-sized landed houses, has appreciated by approximately 3.3% over the past year according to Bank Indonesia's official segment breakdown for Medan.
The main reason medium homes are outperforming is that they hit the sweet spot of affordability and livability, attracting upgrading families who have outgrown starter homes but aren't yet ready for premium price tags.
Finally, if you're interested in a specific property type, you will find our latest analyses here:
- How much do properties cost in Medan?
- How much should you pay for a house in Medan?
- How much should you pay for an apartment in Medan?
- How much should you pay for a studio in Medan?
What is driving property prices up or down in Medan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, the top three factors driving property prices in Medan are regional economic growth in North Sumatra (which supports incomes and household formation), government housing support policies (which keep credit accessible), and infrastructure improvements (which enhance connectivity to job centers).
The single factor with the strongest upward pressure on Medan property prices is the robust economic performance of North Sumatra, where the real estate sector itself grew by 10.69% year-on-year in Q3 2025, the fastest among all sectors in the province.
If you want to understand these factors at a deeper level, you can read our latest property market analysis about Medan here.
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What is the property price forecast for Medan in 2026?
How much are property prices expected to increase in Medan in 2026?
As of early 2026, property prices in Medan are expected to increase by approximately 3% to 6% over the course of the year, with our central estimate around 4.5%.
The realistic range of forecasts from different analysts spans from conservative projections of 1% to 2% annual growth to more optimistic scenarios of 5% to 7%, depending on assumptions about interest rate cuts and infrastructure progress.
The main assumption underlying most price increase forecasts for Medan is that Bank Indonesia will continue its accommodative monetary stance and that North Sumatra's economy will sustain growth around 4.5% to 5%, keeping housing demand healthy.
We go deeper and try to understand how solid are these forecasts in our pack covering the property market in Medan.
Which neighborhoods will see the highest price growth in Medan in 2026?
As of early 2026, the neighborhoods expected to see the highest price growth in Medan include Medan Baru, Medan Tembung, Medan Barat, and central condo zones around major retail nodes like Cambridge City Square and Sun Plaza.
The projected price growth for these top neighborhoods ranges from 4% to 6% for the year, with Medan Baru likely at the higher end due to its established premium positioning and consistent buyer demand.
The primary catalyst driving expected growth in these neighborhoods is their combination of central accessibility, strong rental demand from students and professionals, and limited new supply of quality housing.
One emerging neighborhood that could surprise with higher-than-expected growth is Medan Helvetia, which benefits from improving connectivity and more affordable entry prices compared to central districts.
By the way, we've written a blog article detailing what are the current best areas to invest in property in Medan.
What property types will appreciate the most in Medan in 2026?
As of early 2026, medium-sized landed homes are expected to appreciate the most in Medan, followed by larger landed homes in prime locations, then well-located apartments in central districts.
The projected appreciation for medium-sized landed homes in Medan is approximately 3% to 5% for 2026, building on the momentum established in 2025.
The main demand trend driving this appreciation is the upgrade cycle, where young families moving out of smaller starter homes seek more space without jumping to unaffordable luxury price points.
The property type expected to underperform in Medan is smaller entry-level homes, which face competition from subsidized housing programs and have shown flat price movement recently.
We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Indonesia versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you’re planning to invest there.
How will interest rates affect property prices in Medan in 2026?
As of early 2026, the current interest rate environment is supportive for Medan property prices, with Bank Indonesia's benchmark rate at 4.75% keeping mortgage costs manageable for most buyers.
The current BI-Rate stands at 4.75%, and analysts expect further gradual cuts through 2026, potentially bringing it toward 4.00% to 4.25% by year-end, which would translate into lower mortgage rates.
Historically in Indonesia, a 1% reduction in benchmark rates can improve buyer affordability by roughly 8% to 10% on monthly payments, potentially bringing thousands of additional households into the market for mid-priced Medan homes.
You can also read our latest update about mortgage and interest rates in Indonesia.
What are the biggest risks for property prices in Medan in 2026?
As of early 2026, the three biggest risks for property prices in Medan are sticky mortgage rates if Bank Indonesia delays further cuts, commodity price volatility affecting North Sumatra's export-driven economy, and potential oversupply in certain suburban housing clusters.
The risk with the highest probability of materializing is interest rate stickiness, given global uncertainties and the central bank's need to balance growth support with rupiah stability.
We actually cover all these risks and their likelihoods in our pack about the real estate market in Medan.
Is it a good time to buy a rental property in Medan in 2026?
As of early 2026, it is generally a good time to buy a rental property in Medan, as the combination of supportive interest rates, steady economic growth, and negotiable prices in certain segments creates favorable conditions for investors.
The strongest argument in favor of buying now is that fundamentals remain healthy while short-term listing softness gives buyers negotiating room, especially in the landed home segment where medians have shown month-to-month flexibility.
The strongest argument for waiting is that further interest rate cuts expected later in 2026 could improve financing terms, though this must be weighed against the risk of prices rising by then.
If you want to know our latest analysis (results may differ from what you just read), you can read our assessment on whether now is a good time to buy a property in Medan.
You'll also find a dedicated document about this specific question in our pack about real estate in Medan.
Buying real estate in Medan can be risky
An increasing number of foreign investors are showing interest. However, 90% of them will make mistakes. Avoid the pitfalls with our comprehensive guide.
Where will property prices be in 5 years in Medan?
What is the 5-year property price forecast for Medan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Medan over the next 5 years is expected to be between 22% and 34%, which translates to a compound annual growth rate of roughly 4% to 6%.
The range of 5-year forecasts spans from a conservative scenario of around 22% total growth (if interest rates stay elevated and regional growth slows) to an optimistic scenario of 34% or more (if infrastructure projects accelerate and credit conditions loosen significantly).
The projected average annual appreciation rate over the next 5 years in Medan is approximately 4.5% to 5%, which would bring a typical IDR 1.2 billion home today to roughly IDR 1.45 to 1.60 billion by early 2031.
The key assumption most forecasters rely on for their 5-year predictions is that Indonesia's national economy will continue growing at 4.5% to 5.5% annually and that North Sumatra will maintain its role as a regional growth hub.
Which areas in Medan will have the best price growth over the next 5 years?
The top three areas in Medan expected to have the best price growth over the next 5 years are Medan Baru (for prime stability), connectivity-beneficiary districts along the Trans-Sumatra corridor, and central condo zones near major retail and office nodes like Cambridge City Square.
The projected 5-year cumulative price growth for these top-performing areas ranges from 30% to 45%, with connectivity-beneficiary districts potentially at the higher end as infrastructure completion translates into reduced commute times.
This differs slightly from the shorter-term forecast because over 5 years, infrastructure effects have more time to compound, meaning currently peripheral districts that gain accessibility can catch up faster than already-premium areas.
One currently undervalued area with the best potential for outperformance over 5 years is Medan Helvetia, which combines relatively affordable prices with improving connectivity and proximity to industrial employment zones.
What property type will give the best return in Medan over 5 years as of 2026?
As of early 2026, medium-sized landed homes in liquid districts are expected to give the best total return over 5 years in Medan, balancing solid appreciation potential with steady rental income.
The projected 5-year total return for medium-sized landed homes in good locations could reach 35% to 50% when combining price appreciation (around 25% to 35%) with cumulative rental yields (around 10% to 15% over 5 years).
The main structural trend favoring this property type is the ongoing household formation cycle, where Medan's growing middle class seeks family-sized homes that offer more space than apartments but remain within reach financially.
For investors prioritizing lower risk over maximum returns, well-located apartments in central Medan offer the best balance, as they maintain stronger rental demand consistency and easier exit liquidity even if appreciation is slightly lower.
How will new infrastructure projects affect property prices in Medan over 5 years?
The top three major infrastructure projects expected to impact Medan property prices over the next 5 years are the ongoing Trans-Sumatra Toll Road network (including the Medan-Binjai section), airport connectivity improvements linked to Kualanamu International Airport, and urban road upgrades within Greater Medan.
Properties located near completed infrastructure projects in Medan typically command a price premium of 10% to 20% compared to similar properties in less accessible locations, based on historical patterns after toll road section openings.
The specific neighborhoods that will benefit most from these infrastructure developments include districts along the Medan-Binjai corridor, areas with improved access to Kualanamu, and residential zones that become more commutable to central job centers.
How will population growth and other factors impact property values in Medan in 5 years?
The projected population growth rate for Medan city is around 1.5% to 1.7% annually, which will add approximately 200,000 new residents over 5 years and create sustained baseline demand for housing.
The demographic shift that will have the strongest influence on property demand in Medan is the expansion of the middle-income segment, as rising wages in services and logistics sectors enable more households to afford mortgage-financed home purchases.
Migration patterns, particularly domestic migration from surrounding rural areas and smaller towns in North Sumatra seeking better job opportunities in Medan, will continue to pressure housing supply and support price appreciation in accessible districts.
The property types and areas that will benefit most from these demographic trends are mid-priced landed homes in districts like Medan Sunggal, Medan Selayang, and Medan Helvetia, which offer livability at price points matching rising middle-class budgets.
We made this infographic to show you how property prices in Indonesia compare to other big cities across the region. It breaks down the average price per square meter in city centers, so you can see how cities stack up. It’s an easy way to spot where you might get the best value for your money. We hope you like it.
What is the 10 year property price outlook in Medan?
What is the 10-year property price prediction for Medan as of 2026?
As of early 2026, cumulative property price growth in Medan over the next 10 years is expected to be between 48% and 97%, translating to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4% to 7%.
The range of 10-year forecasts spans from a conservative scenario of around 48% total growth (roughly 4% annual) to an optimistic scenario approaching 97% (roughly 7% annual), with the base case around 70% cumulative appreciation.
The projected average annual appreciation rate over the next 10 years in Medan is approximately 5% to 5.5%, which would bring a typical IDR 1.2 billion home today to roughly IDR 1.9 to 2.3 billion by 2036.
The biggest uncertainty factor in making 10-year property price predictions for Medan is the pace and direction of Indonesia's broader economic development, particularly whether infrastructure investments and urbanization trends continue on their current trajectory.
What long-term economic factors will shape property prices in Medan?
The top three long-term economic factors that will shape property prices in Medan over the next decade are Indonesia's national GDP growth trajectory, North Sumatra's regional competitiveness in logistics and manufacturing, and the continuation of housing finance policies that keep credit accessible.
The single long-term economic factor with the most positive impact on Medan property values is the ongoing infrastructure buildout, particularly the Trans-Sumatra connectivity that positions Medan as the gateway to Sumatra's 55-million-person market.
The single long-term economic factor posing the greatest structural risk to Medan property values is potential stagnation in national economic reforms, which could slow income growth and reduce the pool of qualified homebuyers over time.
You'll also find a much more detailed analysis in our pack about real estate in Medan.
What sources have we used to write this blog article?
Whether it's in our blog articles or the market analyses included in our property pack about Medan, we always rely on the strongest methodology we can … and we don't throw out numbers at random.
We also aim to be fully transparent, so below we've listed the authoritative sources we used, and explained how we used them and the methods behind our estimates.
| Source | Why It's Authoritative | How We Used It |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Indonesia SHPR Q3 2025 | Indonesia's central bank is the primary official source for residential property price movements. | We used it to anchor official price growth rates and compare small, medium, and large home segments in Medan. It serves as our reality check against listing-market signals. |
| BPS Residential Property Price Index 2024 | BPS (Statistics Indonesia) is the national statistics agency publishing official property indicators. | We used it to validate national methodology and broader price direction. We then localized the story to Medan using Bank Indonesia data and local listings. |
| Bank Indonesia Policy Decisions | It's the central bank's official communication of the benchmark rate and policy stance. | We used it to fix the interest-rate environment entering 2026 (BI-Rate at 4.75%). We connected that to mortgage affordability and buyer demand in Medan. |
| IMF Indonesia Country Page | The IMF is a top-tier international institution providing standardized macro forecasts. | We used it to frame a conservative, credible 2026 growth and inflation baseline for Indonesia. We then translated that into a Medan housing-demand outlook. |
| World Bank Indonesia Economic Outlook | The World Bank is a leading international institution with widely used macro analysis. | We used it to cross-check the IMF baseline and avoid single-source forecasting. We translated national resilience into likely support for urban housing demand. |
| BPS North Sumatra GRDP Q3 2025 | BPS regional offices provide official, localized economic statistics. | We used it to anchor regional growth context and note sector signals including real estate sector growth. We connected that to household incomes and housing demand in Greater Medan. |
| Bank Indonesia Provincial Economic Report (North Sumatra) | BI's provincial reports are official regional macro and financial assessments. | We used it to ground Medan's narrative in local drivers like consumption, investment, and credit conditions. We then inferred how these drivers affect different property types. |
| BPS Medan "Kota Medan Dalam Angka 2025" | It's the city's official annual statistical yearbook from BPS. | We used it to anchor city demographics and economy fundamentals behind long-term housing demand. We aligned the price story with Medan's urban structure and growth corridors. |
| BPS Medan Population by District | It's an official BPS table with district-level detail for Medan. | We used it to explain why certain districts see stronger demand based on population concentration. We mapped that to neighborhood examples for buyers and investors. |
| Rumah123 Medan House Listings | It's one of Indonesia's largest property portals with transparent median calculations. | We used it to estimate typical price levels and identify which districts are rising or falling fastest. We then sanity-checked against Bank Indonesia's official index direction. |
| Rumah123 Medan Apartment Listings | Same platform with transparent median approach but focused on apartments. | We used it to capture the condo and apartment slice of Medan's market and compare momentum versus landed houses. We translated this into property-type conclusions. |
| Rumah123 Medan Baru District Page | It provides district-specific median prices and short-term momentum with stated sample windows. | We used it as a key prime-district signal for Medan's higher-end landed market. We also used its nearby-area comparison panel to name real neighborhoods and price gaps. |
| BIS/FRED Real Residential Property Prices (Indonesia) | BIS-based series distributed by FRED is widely used for cross-country housing cycles. | We used it to describe the long-cycle inflation-adjusted context for Indonesia. We then kept Medan forecasts realistic by avoiding straight-line projections. |
| KPPIP Medan-Binjai Toll Road | KPPIP is an official Indonesian government committee tracking strategic projects. | We used it to justify why connectivity upgrades matter for Medan commuting zones. We linked infrastructure to likely relative outperformance corridors. |
| Setkab Toll Road Inaugurations | It's an official government communication channel from the Cabinet Secretariat. | We used it to confirm the timing and reality of major connectivity improvements. We discussed how improved access can lift certain residential nodes over time. |
| Reuters BI Liquidity Support | Reuters is reputable and reports policy actions tied to official statements. | We used it to support the claim that policy is actively trying to support housing credit. We translated that into demand support for entry-level homes in Medan. |
| Reuters Housing Loan Subsidies | Reuters is reputable and cites the policy basis from finance ministry decrees. | We used it to explain why the lower end of the market can stay liquid even if rates don't fall fast. We reflected that in our 2026 forecast by property type. |
| Trading Economics Indonesia Interest Rate | It aggregates central bank decisions and provides historical rate data. | We used it to track the BI-Rate trajectory and analyst expectations for 2026. We connected rate forecasts to mortgage affordability scenarios for Medan buyers. |
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If you want to go deeper, you can read the following: