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SUMMARY
Johor Bahru condo prices are not about to fall across the board, but a growing share of ordinary high-rise projects looks vulnerable to flat or lower resale prices as supply catches up with the recent boom.
The biggest risk is the sheer amount of construction. Johor already has 108,863 serviced apartments, with another 60,544 units incoming or planned, equivalent to roughly 56% of today's existing stock.
The development mix makes that number more worrying. Johor's future residential pipeline includes about 70,177 high-rise units against 38,448 landed homes, so most of the coming competition is concentrated in the same part of the market where oversupply has already been a problem.
Demand has not collapsed, though. Several large Johor Bahru launches have still reported take-up of roughly 60% to 90%, which is far too healthy for an immediate citywide correction.
Resale transactions also continue to clear. Johor condominiums recently recorded a median around RM408 per sq ft, while Country Garden Danga Bay continues to produce a large number of transactions around a much higher RM675 per sq ft median.
The market is becoming unusually fragmented. Some older or generic towers remain cheap while scarce central stock near Bukit Chagar can trade above RM1,000 per sq ft, with a small recent TriTower sample around RM1,256 per sq ft.
The RTS should widen that gap rather than protect every condo equally. Apartments that are genuinely walkable to Bukit Chagar have a scarce commuting advantage; projects several kilometres away may eventually find that a loose "near RTS" label is worth much less once buyers can compare real journey times.
Resale owners probably feel the supply pressure before developers do. Developers can defend headline prices with rebates, furniture and payment packages, while owners of similar second-hand units usually end up competing through price.
Rental economics are another warning. A RM500,000 condo earning RM2,300 a month produces a 5.5% gross yield, but the same rent on a RM1 million purchase price produces only 2.8% before maintenance, vacancy, furnishing and financing costs.
So the most likely outcome is not one dramatic Johor Bahru crash. It is a widening gap between scarce, well-connected, well-managed projects and investor-heavy towers that are easy to replace, with weaker buildings showing longer selling periods, flatter rents and softer resale prices first.
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Are Johor Bahru condo prices already falling?
Johor Bahru condo prices are not broadly falling today, but some buildings are already showing the kind of weakness we would expect before a more selective correction.
The latest transaction evidence still looks too strong to call this a citywide downturn. Brickz currently shows a Johor condominium median of about RM408 per sq ft and RM458,000 per transaction across 257 deals recorded between July 2025 and June 2026. Separately, Olive Tree Property Consultants reported that Johor Bahru residential prices generally rose in late 2025, with serviced apartments leading the increase.
Project-level data tell a messier story. Country Garden Danga Bay recorded more than 200 transactions over the latest 12-month period tracked by Brickz, with a median around RM675 per sq ft and roughly RM706,000 per unit. That is still an active resale market, but individual deals are spread across a wide range. Buyers clearly do not value every tower, layout or floor equally anymore.
At the expensive end, recent TriTower Residence transactions close to Bukit Chagar have reached well above RM1,000 per sq ft. Older and less conveniently located condos can trade at a fraction of that.
So the current market already has winners and losers. We do not yet see enough widespread forced selling or falling comparable prices to say Johor Bahru condos as a whole have entered a decline.
| Current evidence | Latest reading | What we think it means | Price pressure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johor condo median | ~RM408 psf | Broader market still functioning normally | Neutral |
| Johor condo median price | ~RM458,000 | No obvious collapse in transaction values | Neutral |
| Country Garden Danga Bay | ~RM675 psf median | Large resale market still clearing | Mixed |
| Prime Bukit Chagar stock | Often >RM1,000 psf | Strong location premium remains | Positive |
| Older generic high-rises | Much cheaper | Building quality increasingly matters | Negative |
Why are people suddenly worried about Johor Bahru condo prices?
People are worried about Johor Bahru condos now because developers are building into a market that already has an unusually large stock of serviced apartments.
The freshest warning came from CIMB Securities using first-quarter 2026 data from the National Property Information Centre. Johor had 108,863 existing serviced apartments, with another 41,832 units incoming and 18,712 planned through roughly 2030 and 2031.
Adding the incoming and planned units gives 60,544 additional apartments. That is equivalent to roughly 56% of the existing serviced-apartment stock.
Olive Tree Property Consultants gives us another way to see the imbalance. At the end of 2025, Johor's future residential supply consisted of about 70,177 high-rise units versus 38,448 landed homes. High-rises therefore represented almost two-thirds of the pipeline.
Those numbers explain why the debate has changed. A few years ago, buyers mainly asked whether the RTS and Singapore demand would revive Johor Bahru property. Today we also have to ask whether developers are building faster than that revival can absorb.
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Is Johor Bahru actually building too many condos?
Yes. Johor Bahru is currently building enough high-rise housing that some projects will probably struggle to maintain today's prices.
The scale matters more than the simple fact that construction is rising. Johor already has a six-figure serviced-apartment stock, and more than 60,000 additional units are either incoming or planned according to the latest NAPIC figures cited by CIMB Securities.
Large individual developments keep adding to that number. Skyline One Sentosa contains 1,623 units. Residensi Maxim Pelangi contains 1,716. Mandolin Residences recently added another 712 planned units in Taman Desa Tebrau. Mutiara Kempas has 562 units, while Mah Sing's M Grand Minori adds hundreds more in Taman Pelangi.
No single project creates an oversupply problem. Put dozens of projects like these together and owners start competing with developers, neighbouring towers and future completions at the same time.
The pressure should become especially visible between projects offering similar one- and two-bedroom investor units. When buyers can choose among ten nearly interchangeable towers, sellers have very little room to raise prices.
| Supply measure | Units | Scale versus existing serviced-apartment stock |
|---|---|---|
| Existing serviced apartments | 108,863 | 100% |
| Incoming supply | 41,832 | ~38% |
| Planned supply | 18,712 | ~17% |
| Incoming + planned | 60,544 | ~56% |
| Potential stock if all delivered | ~169,400 | ~156% of current stock |
Didn't Johor Bahru already have a condo oversupply problem?
Johor Bahru has lived with condo oversupply for years, and that history tells us prices can stay surprisingly sticky even when there are far too many units.
NAPIC previously recorded more than 13,000 completed but unsold serviced apartments in Johor, with almost the entire total concentrated in Johor Bahru district. Johor alone represented well over half of Malaysia's serviced-apartment overhang at one point.
That stock did begin to come down. NAPIC reported further improvement in completed-unsold serviced apartments going into 2025, suggesting that stronger demand was gradually cleaning up some of the legacy inventory.
The awkward part is that developers have started another major building cycle before the old imbalance has completely disappeared. Current commentary from CIMB Securities has therefore turned cautious again specifically on high-rise residential property even while the research house remains more constructive on Johor's landed and industrial segments.
History also shows why we should avoid expecting one dramatic crash. Owners of Malaysian condos often hold rather than sell immediately at a loss. Developers can use rebates, furnishing packages and payment incentives instead of openly cutting headline prices. The market can weaken through flat resales, long selling periods and poor rental returns before official transaction prices fall sharply.
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Are buyers still buying new Johor Bahru condos?
Yes, buyers are still taking up new Johor Bahru condos quickly enough that an immediate market-wide fall looks unlikely.
Mah Sing's M Grand Minori gave us one of the clearest examples. Phase 1 of Tower A contained 843 serviced apartments and reached roughly 90% take-up over a single weekend after launch. The project sits in Taman Pelangi, around three kilometres from Bukit Chagar.
More recently, Malton reported that Mutiara Kempas reached about 70% take-up after its preview. The project contains 562 serviced apartments and starts around RM336,000 after Bumiputera discounts. Malton was confident enough in Johor Bahru demand to acquire another site about six kilometres from the city centre for a future serviced-apartment development with an estimated RM950 million gross development value.
Skyline One Sentosa was also reported around 60% sold while carrying more than 1,600 units.
Three separate projects reaching roughly 60%, 70% and 90% take-up tells us current demand is real. We should still treat developer take-up figures carefully because bookings and incentives are different from completed resale transactions. Even so, this is much stronger evidence than a market where launch galleries are empty and developers cannot move inventory.
| Development | Approximate scale | Reported take-up | What stands out |
|---|---|---|---|
| M Grand Minori Tower A Phase 1 | 843 units | ~90% | Very strong opening response |
| Mutiara Kempas | 562 units | ~70% | Strong demand outside Bukit Chagar itself |
| Skyline One Sentosa | 1,623 units | ~60% | Large project still absorbing buyers |
| Mandolin Residences | 712 units | Newly introduced | More supply continues to enter the market |
Is the RTS Link already pushing Johor Bahru condo prices higher?
The RTS Link is already affecting Johor Bahru condo pricing, especially close to Bukit Chagar, even though passenger service has not started yet.
Singapore's Land Transport Authority says the line will connect Woodlands North and Bukit Chagar in about five minutes, with capacity for up to 10,000 passengers per hour in each direction. Passengers will clear both countries' immigration procedures before boarding because customs and immigration facilities are being co-located at the stations.
For housing, that changes the usefulness of central Johor Bahru much more than another highway would. A Singapore employee could eventually live near Bukit Chagar, clear immigration once and reach Woodlands North in minutes rather than depending entirely on Causeway traffic.
Transaction prices already show how much buyers value that possibility. A small recent Brickz sample at TriTower Residence, very close to Bukit Chagar, produced a median around RM1,256 per sq ft. Country Garden Danga Bay, which is still relatively central but lacks the same walk-to-RTS advantage, sits around RM675 per sq ft across a far larger transaction sample.
That gap is too large to explain purely through the RTS because building age, unit size and specifications also differ. Still, buyers are clearly paying heavily for the best-connected central stock these days.
| Example | Recent price evidence | Positioning | Our reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| TriTower Residence | ~RM1,256 psf median in a small sample | Very close to Bukit Chagar | Strong RTS premium |
| Country Garden Danga Bay | ~RM675 psf median | Central waterfront | Much cheaper despite strong liquidity |
| Johor condo median | ~RM408 psf | Broad state sample | Shows how extreme prime JB pricing has become |
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Can the RTS Link protect every Johor Bahru condo from falling?
No. The RTS Link should protect the best-connected Johor Bahru condos far more than towers that simply use "near RTS" in their marketing.
Distance will become easier to judge once trains are operating. A condo where residents can actually walk to Bukit Chagar offers a very different daily routine from one requiring a car, parking, traffic and another transfer before reaching the station.
That distinction is partly hidden while the RTS remains a future story. Developers can currently market a broad radius around central Johor Bahru as RTS-related. Once commuters start using the line every day, buyers will have real travel times rather than brochures.
We expect the market to become stricter. Five minutes on foot, 15 minutes on foot and 15 minutes by car will no longer feel interchangeable.
This is one reason a large supply pipeline does not automatically mean Bukit Chagar prices collapse. Developers can create thousands of new apartments across Johor Bahru, but genuinely walkable land around one international rail terminus is limited.
Projects farther away face a harder question: what exactly makes their unit scarce when another tower opens nearby?
Are Johor Bahru resale condos more vulnerable than new launches?
Johor Bahru resale condos look more vulnerable than new launches right now because individual owners cannot compete with the incentives developers use to keep headline prices high.
A developer can throw in furniture, absorb certain fees, offer rebates, structure payment plans and spend heavily on marketing. A resale owner usually has one effective weapon when several similar units are available: price.
Country Garden Danga Bay is useful here because it has enough transactions to show what a mature resale market looks like. Brickz currently records a median around RM675 per sq ft across more than 200 recent transactions. The middle 50% of deals stretches from roughly RM605,000 to RM796,000.
That is a wide range inside one development. Buyers can compare many existing units and negotiate hard instead of accepting a single developer price.
The same effect should become stronger when new towers complete. An owner trying to sell a six-year-old 650 sq ft apartment may suddenly compete with a brand-new 650 sq ft unit nearby that includes new facilities, fresh furnishings and launch incentives.
We therefore expect resale prices to reveal weakness before developers advertise large outright price cuts.
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Are Johor Bahru condo rents keeping up with prices?
Johor Bahru rents currently make sense at some purchase prices, but the maths becomes much less attractive when buyers pay a large RTS premium.
Take a simple example. A condo bought for RM500,000 and rented for RM2,300 a month produces RM27,600 of annual rent, equal to a 5.5% gross yield. At RM700,000, the same rent produces about 3.9%. At RM1 million, it falls to 2.8%.
Those figures come before maintenance fees, vacancies, agent commissions, furnishing, repairs, assessment charges and financing.
This is where supply can hurt investors without producing a spectacular fall in rents. Thousands of additional units can simply keep rents from rising very much. If purchase prices keep climbing while rent stays flat, the yield gets worse every year.
That eventually changes buyer behaviour. Someone accepting a 3% gross yield needs much stronger confidence in future capital gains than someone receiving 5% or 6%.
For Johor Bahru condos today, rental growth deserves at least as much attention as headline selling prices.
| Purchase price | Monthly rent | Annual gross rent | Gross yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| RM400,000 | RM2,300 | RM27,600 | 6.9% |
| RM500,000 | RM2,300 | RM27,600 | 5.5% |
| RM700,000 | RM2,300 | RM27,600 | 3.9% |
| RM1,000,000 | RM2,300 | RM27,600 | 2.8% |
Will Singapore buyers keep Johor Bahru condo prices high?
Singapore-linked buyers should continue supporting Johor Bahru condos, but expecting them to absorb every new tower gives them far too much weight.
The attraction is easy to understand. Singapore private housing is dramatically more expensive, while the RTS will make central Johor Bahru easier to reach. Someone earning Singapore dollars can therefore look at a RM700,000 or RM1 million Johor apartment very differently from a household relying entirely on Malaysian income.
Cross-border demand is also becoming more credible because the housing story sits alongside wider economic integration through the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone.
But it will not be evenly spread. Buyers who want to commute care disproportionately about Bukit Chagar, the city centre and routes with simple access to Singapore. A tower 15 or 20 kilometres away does not suddenly become equivalent because it sits inside Johor Bahru district.
Foreign ownership rules create another filter. Johor generally applies minimum purchase thresholds to foreign residential buyers, so many cheaper resale units cannot simply rely on Singaporean purchasers to clear the market.
Singapore money should therefore remain a strong support for particular locations. It gives much less protection to generic high-rise supply across the whole city.
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Are some Johor Bahru condos simply too expensive now?
Yes. Some Johor Bahru condos are already priced aggressively enough that buyers are paying today for benefits they will only fully experience later.
The clearest warning comes from the spread between projects. Johor's broader condominium median is around RM408 per sq ft. Country Garden Danga Bay is around RM675. Some central new developments are marketed above RM1,000 per sq ft, while recent transactions in the small TriTower sample were around RM1,256 per sq ft.
A buyer paying RM1,200 per sq ft is therefore paying almost three times the broader Johor condo median.
That premium may still work for a genuinely scarce apartment beside Bukit Chagar. We would be much less comfortable paying something close to it several kilometres away because the buyer is then accepting prime-city pricing without prime-city scarcity.
Comparisons with Singapore can also make weak deals look cheap. A RM1 million Johor condo obviously costs far less than many Singapore apartments, but that tells us very little about whether RM1 million is a sensible price relative to Johor rents, local resale transactions and competing projects.
The better question today is how much more one Johor Bahru condo deserves to cost than another.
Which Johor Bahru condos are most likely to fall first?
Investor-heavy Johor Bahru towers with lots of similar units, weak rental differentiation and no genuine walkable RTS advantage look most likely to see price cuts first.
We would be particularly cautious when hundreds of owners can eventually list the same studio or two-bedroom layout. Ten sellers offering almost identical units create a simple problem: the cheapest credible listing becomes the new reference point for buyers.
Older serviced apartments also face pressure when newer buildings appear nearby. Tenants tend to notice newer common areas, better gyms, cleaner lifts and newer furniture quickly. An ageing project has to compensate through lower rent, better management or a much cheaper purchase price.
Projects that depend heavily on investors are another concern. Owner-occupiers can tolerate several years of flat prices because the property still provides somewhere to live. Investors paying maintenance charges and mortgage interest while earning mediocre rent tend to become much less patient.
By contrast, buildings with several demand pools should hold up better. A condo that appeals to local residents, Singapore commuters and long-term tenants is harder to destabilise than a tower designed mainly for speculative buyers.
From here, project selection matters much more than simply being bullish or bearish on Johor Bahru.
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What would make Johor Bahru condo prices really start falling?
Johor Bahru condo prices would become much more vulnerable if new completions rise while rents, resale demand and launch take-up weaken at the same time.
The first thing we would watch is new-launch absorption. Recent projects have still managed roughly 60% to 90% take-up, which gives developers confidence to keep building. Several comparable launches suddenly struggling to reach 30% or 40% would be a very different market.
Next comes rental performance. Flat rents are manageable when purchase prices are also flat. Flat rents combined with rising purchase prices compress yields and make investment demand less convincing.
Resale inventory is probably the most important early warning. When owners begin listing faster than buyers transact, comparable units start undercutting one another. That is how a theoretical oversupply problem becomes an actual price problem.
Completed-unsold inventory would also matter. Johor had been making progress reducing some of its previous serviced-apartment overhang. A sustained reversal would show that new supply had once again moved ahead of demand.
Finally, we would watch what happens after RTS commuting becomes real. Strong daily usage would support central housing demand. If residential demand around the line ends up much weaker than investors currently expect, today's biggest pricing story would lose some force.
| What to watch | Healthy market | Early warning | Clearer bearish turn |
|---|---|---|---|
| New-launch take-up | ~60%+ repeatedly | Slower launches | Major launches stuck around 30–40% |
| Rents | Rising | Flat | Falling across competing projects |
| Resale listings | Stable | Rising faster than transactions | Sellers repeatedly undercut each other |
| Completed overhang | Falling | Stops improving | Starts rising consistently |
| RTS-linked demand | Strong commuting demand | Mixed housing impact | Residential demand disappoints badly |
Are Johor Bahru condo prices about to fall?
Johor Bahru condo prices are likely to become weaker and much more uneven, but a broad citywide fall still looks premature today.
The case for caution has become strong. Johor already has 108,863 serviced apartments, and the latest NAPIC figures cited by CIMB Securities show more than 60,000 additional units incoming or planned. High-rises account for almost two-thirds of Johor's future residential pipeline. That amount of construction will create losers.
At the same time, current demand is too healthy for us to call an immediate crash. M Grand Minori achieved roughly 90% take-up for an 843-unit release. Mutiara Kempas reached about 70%. Skyline One Sentosa was around 60%. Recent transaction data still show active resale markets, and buyers continue paying large premiums close to Bukit Chagar.
The strongest conclusion is about dispersion. Johor Bahru is moving into a market where two condos five kilometres apart can have completely different outcomes.
Genuinely walkable RTS projects, well-managed buildings with proven tenant demand and condos that appeal to owner-occupiers should have a decent chance of holding their value or rising further. Generic serviced apartments surrounded by similar future supply have a much weaker setup.
The next downturn, if it develops, will probably appear building by building before anyone can clearly see it in a Johor Bahru average. Resale owners will accept slightly lower prices, rents will stop keeping pace, selling periods will lengthen and weaker projects will increasingly underperform the prime ones.
So are Johor Bahru condo prices about to fall? Some probably are.
We would avoid betting on a broad crash. We would be much more willing to bet that a growing number of ordinary Johor Bahru condos will struggle to reproduce the gains buyers have become used to, while the best-located projects keep pulling away.
That is the real danger in Johor Bahru now: paying a premium price for a condo that future buyers discover is easy to replace.
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OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis tests whether Johor Bahru condo prices are moving toward a meaningful correction by looking at the conditions that would normally produce one: transaction pricing, existing stock, future supply, completed overhang, new-launch absorption, resale competition, rental economics, and the concentration of RTS and Singapore-linked demand.
We give completed transactions more weight when judging established resale values, while developer take-up figures are used mainly as an indication of current demand for new projects. The two measures are useful for different things and should not be treated as interchangeable.
Future supply includes both projects already moving toward completion and the wider planned pipeline. We do not assume every planned unit will arrive exactly as announced; the purpose is to judge whether the scale and concentration of construction are large enough to create meaningful competition for today's owners.
Project comparisons are used to measure how far pricing has already separated across Johor Bahru, rather than to claim that buildings such as TriTower Residence and Country Garden Danga Bay are identical comparables. Location, age, unit size, specifications and transaction depth all differ, but the gaps are still useful for identifying where buyers are paying unusually large premiums.
We also do not define a downturn only as a fall in a broad Johor price index. In a market with a large number of different high-rise projects, deterioration can appear first through weaker resale comparables, longer selling periods, flatter rents, falling yields and widening gaps between strong and weak buildings.
Key sources used include NAPIC's official property-market data, NAPIC's Property Market Report 2025, Brickz's Johor condominium transactions, Brickz's Country Garden Danga Bay transactions, Brickz's TriTower Residence transactions, and Olive Tree Property Consultants' Johor Bahru Housing Property Monitor published by The Edge Malaysia.
For individual projects and current launch absorption, we used first-hand developer disclosures and established business reporting, including Mah Sing's interim reporting on M Grand Minori, Malton's Mutiara Kempas project information, The Edge Malaysia's reporting on Mutiara Kempas take-up, Plenitude's Mandolin Residences information, and Skyline One Sentosa's project information.
For the cross-border part of the analysis, we relied on Singapore's Land Transport Authority for the RTS Link, the Johor Land and Mines Office for foreign-property acquisition rules, and Malaysia's Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry for the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone.
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