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How is the property market forecast in Canberra?

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Authored by the expert who managed and guided the team behind the Australia Property Pack

property investment Canberra

Yes, the analysis of Canberra's property market is included in our pack

Canberra's property market in September 2025 shows a stable foundation with subtle price declines, increased sales activity, and strong rental demand positioning the city for measured growth ahead.

The Australian capital territory presents a unique investment landscape where government employment stability meets controlled urban development, creating distinct opportunities for both residential buyers and property investors seeking steady returns in a politically secure environment.

If you want to go deeper, you can check our pack of documents related to the real estate market in Australia, based on reliable facts and data, not opinions or rumors.

How this content was created 🔎📝

At BambooRoutes, we explore the Australian real estate market every day. Our team doesn't just analyze data from a distance—we're actively engaging with local realtors, investors, and property managers in cities like Canberra, Sydney, and Melbourne. This hands-on approach allows us to gain a deep understanding of the market from the inside out.

These observations are originally based on what we've learned through these conversations and our observations. But it was not enough. To back them up, we also needed to rely on trusted resources

We prioritize accuracy and authority. Trends lacking solid data or expert validation were excluded.

Trustworthiness is central to our work. Every source and citation is clearly listed, ensuring transparency. A writing AI-powered tool was used solely to refine readability and engagement.

To make the information accessible, our team designed custom infographics that clarify key points. We hope you will like them! All illustrations and media were created in-house and added manually.

What's the current median house price in Canberra, and how has it changed over the past 12 months?

The median house price in Canberra stands at $975,387 as of September 2025, representing a -0.5% decrease over the past 12 months.

This modest price decline reflects a stabilizing market rather than a concerning downturn. The small percentage drop indicates that Canberra's property market has reached a mature equilibrium after years of growth, with prices now moving sideways rather than experiencing dramatic swings.

The current median figure positions Canberra as more affordable than Sydney or Melbourne while maintaining its premium over other regional Australian markets. This pricing level reflects the city's status as the national capital, supported by stable government employment and controlled urban development policies.

For property investors, this price stability suggests a market that has found its natural level, reducing the risk of significant value erosion while providing a solid foundation for future growth when market conditions improve.

How many properties are being sold each month in Canberra right now compared to this time last year?

Monthly property sales volumes in Canberra have increased by 8.2% year-on-year as of September 2025, indicating robust market activity despite stable pricing.

This increased sales activity demonstrates that buyer confidence remains strong in the Canberra market. The higher transaction volumes suggest that properties are moving more efficiently through the sales process, with both buyers and sellers finding common ground on pricing expectations.

The volume increase also reflects improved market liquidity, meaning investors and homebuyers have more options to choose from and can execute transactions more readily. This liquidity is particularly important for property investors who may need to adjust their portfolios or capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Higher sales volumes combined with stable prices create an ideal environment for strategic property acquisitions, as buyers can negotiate from a position of choice without facing intense price competition.

What's the current auction clearance rate in Canberra, and how does it compare with the national average?

Canberra's auction clearance rate sits at 73% in September 2025, showing a significant improvement from 59% this time last year, and compares favorably to the national average of approximately 75%.

This clearance rate positions Canberra just below the national benchmark but demonstrates strong upward momentum with a 14 percentage point improvement year-on-year. The 73% rate indicates that nearly three-quarters of properties taken to auction successfully sell, reflecting healthy buyer demand and realistic seller expectations.

When compared to major capitals, Canberra's performance is competitive, with Sydney achieving 74% and Melbourne reaching 75.5% clearance rates. This comparison shows that Canberra's auction market operates with similar efficiency to Australia's largest cities while potentially offering better value propositions for buyers.

For property investors, a 73% clearance rate suggests strong underlying demand that supports confidence in future sale prospects when the time comes to divest properties.

How many days on average does it take for a property to sell in Canberra right now?

Properties in Canberra are selling in an average of 49 days as of September 2025, representing a two-day improvement from 51 days this time last year.

This faster selling time indicates an increasingly efficient market where well-priced properties attract buyers quickly. The reduction from 51 to 49 days, while modest, demonstrates improved market dynamics and suggests that inventory is moving at a healthy pace.

A 49-day average selling period is considered reasonable in the Australian property market context, allowing sufficient time for proper marketing while avoiding extended holding costs for sellers. This timeframe provides buyers adequate opportunity to conduct due diligence while preventing properties from becoming stale listings.

For investors, the faster selling times reduce the risk associated with future property disposal and indicate a liquid market that can accommodate portfolio adjustments when needed.

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What's the current vacancy rate for rentals in Canberra, and how has it shifted over the past year?

While specific vacancy rate percentages aren't detailed in current data, rental listings in Canberra have increased by 4.3% year-on-year, indicating a slight easing in rental market tightness compared to the previous year.

The increase in rental listings suggests that tenants have more choice than they did twelve months ago, which typically correlates with a marginally higher vacancy rate. This shift represents a gradual normalization from the extremely tight rental conditions experienced across Australia in recent years.

Despite the increase in available rental properties, Canberra's rental market remains fundamentally strong due to the city's stable employment base and consistent population growth driven by government sector jobs and university enrollment.

It's something we develop in our Australia property pack.

For rental property investors, this slight easing provides better tenant quality options while maintaining solid rental demand fundamentals.

How much have average weekly rents for houses and apartments increased in Canberra over the past 12 months?

Average weekly rents in Canberra have increased by approximately 3% over the past 12 months, aligning with the national capital city trend for rental growth as of September 2025.

This 3% rental increase reflects a moderation from the more aggressive rental growth experienced in 2022-2023, suggesting the rental market has reached a more sustainable growth trajectory. The increase still outpaces inflation in many categories, providing positive real returns for property investors.

The moderate rental growth rate indicates a healthy balance between tenant affordability and investor returns. This level of increase supports rental yield maintenance while avoiding the excessive rental stress that could destabilize the market.

For property investors, the 3% growth rate provides steady income increases while maintaining tenant retention and reducing vacancy risks associated with excessive rental hikes.

What percentage of new housing supply is being built in Canberra this year compared to the five-year average?

New listings in Canberra have surged 16.6% year-on-year, with total live listings up 28.9% compared to last year, reflecting a robust increase well above the five-year average for housing supply.

This significant increase in new listings indicates that developers and individual sellers are responding to market demand by bringing more properties to market. The 28.9% increase in total listings provides buyers with substantially more choice than in previous years.

The elevated supply levels help explain the price stability and modest declines observed in the market, as increased inventory typically moderates price growth. However, the strong sales volumes indicate that demand is absorbing this additional supply effectively.

For investors, increased supply creates opportunities to be selective about property choices and negotiate better terms, while the healthy absorption rate suggests that well-chosen properties will still find ready buyers when it comes time to sell.

How many people are migrating into Canberra annually, and what's the net population growth forecast for the next two years?

While specific migration figures aren't detailed in current market data, Canberra typically experiences net population growth of 1-2% annually, driven primarily by interstate migration and international arrivals attracted by government sector employment opportunities.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics data historically shows Canberra as a consistent population growth market, with the city benefiting from its role as the national capital and major government employer. This growth pattern is expected to continue supporting housing demand fundamentals.

Population growth forecasts for the next two years suggest continued moderate expansion, supported by ongoing government sector employment stability and the city's reputation for quality of life. University enrollment and research sector employment also contribute to steady population inflows.

For property investors, consistent population growth of 1-2% annually provides fundamental support for both rental demand and long-term property value appreciation, even during periods of price stability.

infographics rental yields citiesCanberra

We did some research and made this infographic to help you quickly compare rental yields of the major cities in Australia versus those in neighboring countries. It provides a clear view of how this country positions itself as a real estate investment destination, which might interest you if you're planning to invest there.

What's the current interest rate on variable mortgages, and how does that affect borrowing capacity for the average Canberra household?

Variable mortgage rates currently average around 5.9-6.1% for major lenders as of September 2025, following recent Reserve Bank rate adjustments that have slightly improved borrowing capacity for Canberra households.

The current rate environment represents a moderate level that balances inflation control with economic growth support. Recent rate cuts have provided modest relief to borrowers, increasing borrowing capacity by approximately 2-4% compared to peak rate periods.

For the average Canberra household, current rates mean that a household earning $150,000 annually might qualify for borrowing of approximately $750,000-$850,000, depending on other debts and expenses. This borrowing capacity aligns well with median property prices in the city.

Property investors benefit from the current rate environment through improved serviceability calculations and reduced holding costs on investment properties, while the moderate level provides stability for financial planning purposes.

How many first-home buyer loans were issued in Canberra last quarter, and how does that number compare to investors?

While specific Canberra figures aren't detailed in current data, national trends show first-home buyers maintaining strong market activity comparable to or slightly exceeding investor loan volumes throughout 2025.

First-home buyer activity remains supported by government incentives and improved affordability conditions created by stable prices and moderate interest rates. The competitive loan volumes between first-home buyers and investors indicate a healthy market balance.

The sustained first-home buyer activity provides fundamental market support, as these purchasers typically represent genuine housing demand rather than speculative investment. Their continued presence helps maintain market stability and liquidity.

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For investors, strong first-home buyer activity creates a reliable future sales market and supports long-term property value fundamentals through genuine end-user demand.

What's the current rental yield for houses and units in Canberra, and how does it compare with Sydney and Melbourne?

Canberra delivers superior rental yields compared to Australia's largest capitals, with houses yielding 4.1-4.5% and units providing even stronger returns at 4.8-5.3% as of September 2025.

These yields significantly outperform Sydney, where houses yield approximately 3.1% and units 4.0%, and Melbourne, where houses return around 3.4% and units 4.2%. Canberra's yield advantage reflects its more reasonable property prices relative to rental income potential.

The particularly strong unit yields of 4.8-5.3% make Canberra apartments attractive for income-focused investors, especially compared to similar properties in Sydney or Melbourne. Houses also provide competitive yields while offering better capital growth potential over time.

City House Yield Unit Yield
Canberra 4.1-4.5% 4.8-5.3%
Sydney 3.1% 4.0%
Melbourne 3.4% 4.2%
Brisbane 4.0-4.3% 4.5-5.0%
Perth 3.8-4.2% 4.3-4.8%
Adelaide 4.2-4.6% 4.7-5.2%
National Average 3.8% 4.3%

What's the forecast for property price growth or decline in Canberra over the next 12 to 24 months?

Property price forecasts for Canberra predict mild growth of 1-3% annually over the next 12-24 months, with potential upside if interest rates decline further or migration increases significantly.

Most property analysts expect the Canberra market to transition from the current flat-to-slightly declining phase into modest positive growth territory during 2025-2026. This outlook is supported by stabilizing interest rates, strong sales volumes, and the city's employment stability.

The forecast range of 1-3% annual growth reflects a sustainable trajectory that balances affordability with investment returns. This moderate growth rate would outpace inflation while avoiding the speculative excesses that can destabilize property markets.

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For property investors, this forecast suggests a market primed for steady wealth building without the volatility risks associated with boom-bust cycles, making it ideal for long-term investment strategies.

Conclusion

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.

Sources

  1. Property Update - National Housing Market Update Australia
  2. Open Agent - Canberra Property Market
  3. Domain - Canberra Auction Results
  4. Goodyer - Property Market Indicator Summary
  5. Cotality - Auction Market Response to Rate Cut
  6. Domain - Sydney Auction Results
  7. Real Estate Shop - Allhomes Market Fact Pack
  8. Cotality - Monthly Housing Chart Pack
  9. SQM Research - Total Property Listings
  10. Which Real Estate Agent - Canberra Market Update