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SUMMARY
Vietnam home prices are mostly cooling now, and in some important parts of the market they are already going down.
The cleanest change is in Hanoi’s resale market. Secondary apartment prices have finally started falling after the 2024–2025 surge, while some individual projects are showing much larger cuts than the citywide average.
New-build prices can still make Vietnam look bullish because the mix of supply has shifted heavily toward expensive projects. In Hanoi especially, high primary prices now say as much about what developers are launching as they do about what ordinary buyers are willing to pay.
Demand is weakening faster than headline prices. Nationwide successful real-estate transactions fell almost 29% quarter on quarter, while Hanoi’s new-condo absorption has dropped from the 90%-plus levels common during the boom to around 68%.
Land is weaker than housing. Transaction volumes have collapsed much faster than quoted prices, which usually means sellers are holding their asking prices for now even as buyers disappear.
Ho Chi Minh City is holding up better than Hanoi because established apartment supply remains tight. The market is cooling, but there is not yet the same broad resale correction visible in Hanoi.
Affordability is becoming a hard ceiling. A normal-sized Hanoi apartment can now cost several billion dong even in the resale market, while double-digit mortgage rates make those prices much harder for local households to finance.
More supply is arriving at exactly the moment demand is becoming more selective. Project approvals, homes cleared for future sales, units under construction and reported inventory are all rising, which should gradually reduce the scarcity premium that supported the previous upswing.
The national picture is still uneven. Some provincial apartment markets, including Hai Phong, Quang Ninh and parts of the southern industrial belt, are still rising because local supply, infrastructure and employment conditions differ sharply from Hanoi’s.
Vietnam therefore does not look like a market entering a nationwide crash. It looks like a market moving out of easy, broad-based price growth and into a much more selective phase where resale homes, speculative land and highly leveraged buyers are under the most pressure.
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Are home prices in Vietnam going up or down right now?
Vietnam home prices are currently starting to come down in important parts of the market, even though new apartments can still look more expensive in headline data.
The clearest nationwide evidence comes from the Ministry of Construction’s latest quarterly market report. Secondary apartment, villa and land prices generally softened, with project land down around 2–3%. At the same time, successful real-estate transactions fell to 100,005, only 71.5% of the previous quarter’s level.
That is a meaningful change from the rebound that pushed prices sharply higher through 2024 and 2025.
The picture gets messy because Vietnam does not have one housing market. Hanoi resale apartments are now correcting, while newly launched Hanoi apartments remain extremely expensive. Ho Chi Minh City apartment prices are holding up better. Several provincial markets are still rising. Land has weakened more clearly than housing.
So we would describe Vietnam today as a market moving from rapid price growth into a selective correction. Buyers have more leverage than they did a year ago, but the downturn is nowhere near uniform.
| Part of the market | Direction now | Latest evidence | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi resale apartments | Down | First CBRE quarterly decline since late 2022 | Correction has started |
| Hanoi new apartments | Still very expensive | Primary prices remain near record levels | Headline prices remain distorted upward |
| Ho Chi Minh City apartments | Mixed to firm | Resale prices still rising modestly | Cooling rather than correcting sharply |
| Project land | Down | Roughly -2% to -3% QoQ | Weakest major segment |
| Nationwide transactions | Down sharply | 100,005 deals, -28.5% QoQ | Buyers are pulling back |
Why do some reports still say Vietnam home prices are rising?
Some Vietnam home-price statistics are still going up because they measure newly launched apartments, and today’s new projects are much more expensive than the homes developers used to launch.
Hanoi shows the problem especially clearly.
CBRE recorded a 36% jump in Hanoi primary apartment prices during 2024. More recently, its data have continued to show extremely high primary prices even while resale values started falling.
Part of that increase is genuine appreciation. But the type of apartment being sold has also changed dramatically.
In 2019, CBRE counted roughly 37,300 new Hanoi apartments, including around 6,500 affordable units. By 2024, more than 30,000 apartments were launched, yet roughly 25,500 were high-end and essentially none were classified as affordable.
Savills found the same change from the buyer side. Apartments costing more than VND4 billion represented only around 2% of Hanoi transactions in 2020. By 2024, they accounted for 59%.
When cheap apartments vanish and expensive projects dominate launches, the average price rises even if an existing apartment across town has stopped appreciating.
That is why primary-price data alone currently give an overly bullish impression of Vietnam’s housing market.
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Are Hanoi apartment prices finally falling?
Yes. Hanoi resale apartment prices are now falling, and this is the clearest evidence that Vietnam’s hottest housing market has turned.
CBRE reported a decline in Hanoi secondary prices in the latest quarter, the first quarterly drop since late 2022. Batdongsan.com.vn separately put the average Hanoi apartment asking price at around VND85 million per square metre, down roughly 2% from the previous quarter.
Individual projects have moved more.
Batdongsan.com.vn recorded quarterly asking-price drops of around 8% at some large developments, including Times City, The Sapphire and Imperia Sky Park, while Vinhomes Ocean Park Gia Lam was down roughly 4%.
These declines remain small compared with the run-up that came before them. CBRE measured Hanoi secondary prices rising 26% during 2024, while Savills later recorded year-on-year secondary growth above 40% at one point.
A 2% or 3% quarterly fall does not unwind the boom. It does tell us that buyers are no longer automatically accepting higher prices.
CBRE reinforces that interpretation with sales data. Hanoi sold more than 5,800 condos in the latest quarter, equivalent to only 68% of the new supply launched. During 2024 and 2025, absorption frequently exceeded 90%.
Hanoi has moved into a real correction phase, although prices are correcting from an unusually high base.
| Hanoi indicator | During the boom | Latest reading | Change in the story |
|---|---|---|---|
| Secondary prices | +26% during 2024 | Falling QoQ | First decline since late 2022 |
| Batdongsan apartment asking price | Rising strongly | ~VND85m/m² | -2% QoQ |
| Some individual projects | Repeated increases | -4% to -8% QoQ | Sellers are cutting more |
| New-project absorption | Often above 90% | 68% | Buyers are becoming selective |
Why are new Hanoi apartments still so expensive?
New Hanoi apartments remain expensive because developers are still launching mostly high-end homes, while cheap new apartments have almost disappeared.
CBRE’s data show how far the market has moved. Excluding large township projects in Van Giang, average Hanoi primary apartment prices have stayed above VND100 million per square metre since the third quarter of 2025.
That price level would have looked exceptional only a few years earlier.
The composition of supply explains a large part of it. High-end projects dominate new launches, and developers also use incentives instead of obvious list-price cuts. CBRE has previously recorded payment schedules stretching for years and discounts of roughly 5–16% depending on how buyers pay.
A developer can therefore advertise a VND6 billion apartment while effectively selling it for less through discounts, interest support or delayed payments.
Resale owners have fewer options. Someone who needs to sell an existing apartment usually has to negotiate the actual price.
This helps explain why Hanoi’s primary and secondary markets are currently separating. New-build prices stay high on paper while existing apartments respond faster to weaker demand.
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Is Ho Chi Minh City property falling too?
Ho Chi Minh City property is cooling today, but apartment prices have not fallen as clearly as they have in Hanoi.
CBRE’s latest figures show only 850 new condominium units launched in Ho Chi Minh City during the quarter, down 48% from the previous quarter. Limited apartment supply still gives sellers some protection.
Resale apartments have also remained firmer than Hanoi. Depending on the geographic definition and dataset, current secondary prices are still materially higher than a year ago, although quarterly growth has slowed.
Batdongsan.com.vn offers a useful second view. Its average asking price for apartments in the old Ho Chi Minh City area was around VND69 million per square metre in the second quarter and broadly flat quarter on quarter.
CBRE’s broader primary residential average fell 3% during the quarter. That figure, however, was heavily affected by a surge of lower-priced landed homes from a suburban township in the expanded city.
Ho Chi Minh City averages need more care now. The enlarged metropolitan boundary combines expensive central apartments with very different suburban housing markets.
For central and established apartment locations, the evidence currently points to slowing price growth rather than a broad fall.
Is Hanoi’s property market weaker than Ho Chi Minh City now?
Yes. Hanoi currently looks more vulnerable than Ho Chi Minh City because prices rose faster, new supply is much larger and resale values have already started falling.
The previous cycle created the difference.
CBRE recorded Hanoi primary condo prices rising around 36% in 2024, compared with roughly 24% in Ho Chi Minh City. Hanoi also launched more than 30,000 condos that year, while Ho Chi Minh City received only about 5,050, its lowest annual supply since 2013.
Hanoi therefore managed something unusual: a huge increase in supply and a huge increase in prices at the same time.
Buyers initially absorbed that supply remarkably well. During much of 2024 and 2025, more than 90% of newly launched Hanoi apartments were being absorbed, sometimes with sales exceeding new launches because older inventory was also clearing.
Currently, the absorption rate is around 68%.
Ho Chi Minh City still has an underlying scarcity problem in its established apartment market, while Hanoi increasingly has an affordability problem after prices ran far ahead.
That makes Hanoi the clearer candidate for further near-term price adjustment.
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Are Vietnamese buyers refusing today’s home prices?
Yes. Vietnamese homebuyers are increasingly refusing current prices, and the drop in completed sales is now too large to dismiss as normal quarterly noise.
The Ministry of Construction counted approximately 100,005 successful property transactions nationwide in the latest quarter. That was down 28.5% from the previous quarter.
Apartments and individual houses accounted for 26,567 transactions. Their volume fell less sharply than land, but buyers were still clearly more cautious.
Hanoi tells the same story inside one of the country’s strongest markets. As seen above, CBRE’s new-apartment absorption rate is now around 68%, after repeatedly exceeding 90% during 2024 and 2025.
The weakness gets stronger at the expensive end. One Mount found that Hanoi projects priced above VND120 million per square metre were absorbing only around 53% of available supply, compared with 69% a year earlier.
That is already changing negotiations.
Some households are waiting. Others are moving farther from city centres, switching to the resale market or renting instead. Developers are responding with longer payment plans and incentives rather than cutting every list price immediately.
The market can therefore stay expensive for quite a while even when fewer people are willing to buy.
Are high mortgage rates pushing Vietnam home prices down?
Yes. High mortgage rates are currently putting direct pressure on Vietnam homebuyers and are one of the strongest reasons resale prices have started slipping.
According to the Ministry of Construction, real-estate lending rates commonly run around 12–14% a year, while some floating rates reach 15–16%.
Those rates change the economics of an expensive apartment very quickly.
Take a VND5 billion home financed with a 70% mortgage. The buyer borrows VND3.5 billion. At 12% interest, the initial interest bill alone is about VND420 million per year, or VND35 million a month, before repaying any principal.
That makes waiting a perfectly rational choice for many households.
Higher rates also affect people who already bought. CBRE has pointed to owners of under-construction Hanoi apartments reaching the end of principal grace periods just as financing costs increased. Some of those owners now need to lower asking prices to find a buyer.
This pressure is much stronger in the resale market because individual owners cannot easily offer five-year payment schemes or subsidized loans.
As long as borrowing costs remain around current levels, it will be difficult for Vietnam to reproduce the broad home-price surge of the previous two years.
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Is Vietnam finally building enough homes to cool prices?
Vietnam is now approving enough housing to reduce some of the shortage pressure, although much of the new supply remains too expensive for ordinary households.
The shift in construction activity is large.
The Ministry of Construction says 113 commercial housing projects with 103,205 homes received new approvals in the latest quarter. The number of projects was almost three times the previous quarter’s level and more than triple the year-earlier figure.
Another 131 projects containing 59,073 homes became eligible for future-home sales. Meanwhile, 39 projects with nearly 11,000 units were completed.
Across Vietnam, roughly 694,000 commercial homes were under construction in 1,297 projects.
Inventory is also building. Among the 25 of 34 localities that reported data to the Ministry, developers were holding around 39,284 unsold apartments, individual houses and land plots.
The combination of more approvals, more homes for sale and weaker transactions should gradually make it harder to justify scarcity-driven price increases.
Affordability remains the catch. A city can technically receive thousands of new apartments and still have a housing shortage for middle-income households if most launches sit at VND5 billion, VND7 billion or VND10 billion.
Vietnam is currently getting more supply. What the market still needs is more supply at prices ordinary buyers can actually finance.
| Supply indicator | Latest scale | Change | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newly approved commercial projects | 113 projects / 103,205 homes | +194.8% QoQ | Future supply is rising fast |
| Projects cleared for future-home sales | 131 / 59,073 homes | Higher QoQ | More units can reach buyers |
| Completed commercial projects | 39 / ~10,954 homes | Higher QoQ | Physical supply is growing |
| Commercial homes under construction | ~694,000 | Large pipeline | Scarcity should ease gradually |
| Reported unsold inventory | 39,284 units/plots | Rising | Supply is outrunning sales in some markets |
Is land getting cheaper faster than apartments in Vietnam?
Yes. Land is currently weaker than apartments in Vietnam, especially in markets where buyers were relying heavily on future price appreciation.
The latest Ministry of Construction report puts secondary project-land prices down roughly 2–3% from the previous quarter.
Transaction activity fell much harder.
Vietnam recorded around 73,438 land transactions, equal to only 67.4% of the previous quarter’s level and 59.9% of the level one year earlier.
In other words, land sales have dropped roughly 40% year on year while quoted prices have moved only a few percentage points.
That gap is important.
Landowners can simply decide not to sell if offers look too low, particularly when there is no mortgage forcing an immediate transaction. Volumes therefore tend to collapse before quoted prices do.
Some pressured projects are already showing larger reductions, with reported transaction prices down roughly 3–6%.
If today’s weak volumes continue, land has more room to adjust than owner-occupied apartments because speculative demand can disappear much faster than housing demand.
| Vietnam land indicator | Latest reading | Change | What we see |
|---|---|---|---|
| Land transactions | ~73,438 | -32.6% QoQ | Buyers pulled back sharply |
| Land transactions YoY | 59.9% of previous level | About -40% | Weakness is substantial |
| Secondary project-land prices | — | About -2% to -3% QoQ | Prices have started following volumes |
| Some pressured projects | — | Roughly -3% to -6% | Motivated sellers are cutting more |
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Are home prices falling outside Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City?
No. Home prices outside Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are moving in very different directions, and several provincial apartment markets are still rising.
Batdongsan.com.vn’s latest data show just how wide the gap has become.
Average apartment asking prices fell around 2% quarter on quarter in Hanoi and around 3% in former Hung Yen and Bac Ninh. Yet former Hai Phong rose approximately 8%, Quang Ninh 6%, former Binh Dinh 13%, former Ba Ria–Vung Tau 20%, former Long An 6% and former Dong Nai 5%.
Those numbers make a nationwide apartment-price headline almost useless without local context.
Hai Phong is a good example. Apartment prices there climbed through 2025 and into 2026 before showing more mixed momentum depending on the project and period. Land interest, meanwhile, has weakened much more sharply.
Different property types inside the same city can therefore be at different points in the cycle.
That is becoming one of the defining features of Vietnam’s market today. Areas receiving infrastructure investment, industrial jobs or newly scarce apartment supply can still rise while overheated parts of Hanoi and speculative land markets cool.
Are Vietnam home prices simply too expensive now?
For many local households, yes. Vietnam home prices have reached levels where affordability itself is starting to cap how far prices can rise.
Hanoi makes the mismatch easiest to see.
CBRE’s primary apartment price excluding major Van Giang townships has remained above VND100 million per square metre since late 2025. A fairly ordinary 70-square-metre apartment at VND100 million per square metre costs VND7 billion.
Even at VND60 million per square metre in the secondary market, the same 70 square metres cost VND4.2 billion.
That VND2.8 billion gap explains why more buyers are looking at resale homes rather than automatically choosing a new project.
The mortgage calculation makes the affordability problem worse. Financing a large part of a VND5–7 billion apartment at current double-digit interest rates creates monthly payments far beyond what most urban households can comfortably carry.
Rental demand is reacting too. Batdongsan.com.vn recently recorded rental-search demand up around 6% in Hanoi and 24% in the old Ho Chi Minh City area compared with a year earlier.
More people searching for rentals while purchase prices sit near records tells us something straightforward: owning has become too expensive for part of the demand that still wants to live in these cities.
That affordability ceiling is now influencing actual prices, particularly in Hanoi’s resale market.
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Does Vietnam’s strong economy mean property prices will start booming again?
Vietnam’s strong economy should keep housing demand healthy, but it is unlikely to recreate the same nationwide property boom while mortgages are expensive and supply is growing this quickly.
The economy itself remains a powerful support.
The Ministry of Construction cited estimated second-quarter GDP growth of about 8.39%. Foreign capital is also feeding employment and urban growth. Registered foreign investment into real estate reached roughly US$5.1 billion in the first half of 2026, representing 17.9% of total newly registered and additional investment capital.
Manufacturing areas remain particularly strong. CBRE recorded more than 217 hectares of industrial-land absorption across northern Tier-1 markets in the latest quarter, the highest level since early 2024. Southern industrial land absorption reached 124 hectares in the first half, up 125% year on year.
Those factories, offices and logistics hubs eventually support residential demand around major employment centres.
Housing prices can still run too far ahead of that demand. Hanoi already proved it: economic conditions remained strong even as resale apartments started falling.
What has changed lately is the equation buyers face. Homes are expensive, borrowing costs are high and developers have a much larger pipeline coming.
Vietnam’s economy gives the property market a strong underlying base. It does not give every apartment seller permission to raise the price indefinitely.
Could Vietnam home prices fall a lot more from here?
Vietnam home prices could fall further in overheated resale and land markets, but a deep nationwide housing crash still looks unlikely with the evidence available today.
We see several reasons for more downward pressure.
Hanoi resale prices have already turned. Land prices are slipping. Nationwide transactions fell almost 29% in a single quarter. Reported inventory is rising. Borrowing costs are painful. New project approvals have jumped.
Those conditions rarely produce another immediate burst of broad price growth.
A severe national collapse would require more. Vietnam still has strong economic growth, continued urbanization, scarce prime-city land and a shortage of genuinely affordable homes. Developers can also delay launches or use incentives before resorting to large public price cuts.
The starting point matters as well. Someone who bought a Hanoi apartment before the 2024–2025 surge may still be sitting on a large gain after a 5% correction. A buyer who entered late, paid a premium and borrowed heavily is in a much weaker position.
We would watch leveraged resales, high-priced new projects with poor absorption and speculative land most closely. Those are the parts of Vietnam’s market where another leg down would make the most sense.
Prime completed apartments with clean legal status and strong locations should be considerably more resilient.
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So, are Vietnam home prices going up or down?
Vietnam home prices are mostly cooling now, with genuine declines already visible in Hanoi resale apartments and land while new-build prices remain unusually high.
The turning point is increasingly hard to miss.
Hanoi secondary prices have fallen for the first time since late 2022. National property transactions are down almost 29% quarter on quarter. Land transactions are roughly 40% lower than a year earlier. Project-land prices have started falling. Hanoi new-apartment absorption has dropped to around 68%. More homes are being approved and built just as financing becomes harder for buyers.
At the same time, Vietnam has avoided a broad collapse. Ho Chi Minh City apartments remain more resilient, and Batdongsan.com.vn still records quarterly apartment-price increases in places including Hai Phong, Quang Ninh, Dong Nai and former Ba Ria–Vung Tau.
The strongest conclusion today is therefore quite specific: the easy phase of Vietnam’s property upswing is over.
New-project averages may keep producing impressive numbers because developers are launching expensive stock. For someone trying to sell an existing apartment or a speculative plot, conditions already feel very different from the boom.
We expect that gap to define Vietnam’s housing market for now. Premium new homes can remain expensive, but actual resale prices will increasingly have to meet what buyers can afford.
OUR METHODOLOGY
This analysis treats “Are home prices in Vietnam going up or down?” as a direction-of-market question rather than a search for one national price number. We separate primary and secondary pricing, transactions, absorption, supply, inventory, financing conditions, affordability, land activity, local market divergence and underlying economic demand.
Recent evidence receives the greatest weight when we assess what is happening now. Older data is used mainly to show the scale of the 2024–2025 upswing, identify where current readings represent a real change in trend, and avoid confusing a still-high price level with continued price growth.
We also separate price levels from price direction. A new-build average can rise because developers are launching more expensive stock even while existing apartments are no longer appreciating, so headline prices are read alongside resale movements, transaction volumes, absorption, inventory and financing costs.
Where geography or market definitions can distort the comparison, we keep the underlying markets separate. That is particularly important for Hanoi versus Ho Chi Minh City, for provincial markets moving on different cycles, and for the expanded Ho Chi Minh City boundary, where central apartments and suburban landed housing can pull the same average in different directions.
Our national baseline comes from the Vietnam Ministry of Construction’s Q2 2026 housing and real-estate market report, which provides the core transaction, supply, inventory, land-price and lending-rate figures used above.
For Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, we rely heavily on CBRE Vietnam’s Hanoi Q2 2026 figures, CBRE Vietnam’s Ho Chi Minh City Q2 2026 figures, and CBRE’s earlier quarterly and annual market reports to compare today’s conditions with the preceding boom.
We cross-check asking-price and rental-demand trends with Batdongsan.com.vn’s Q2 2026 apartment-market update, while Savills Vietnam’s Hanoi affordability and supply analysis is used to understand how the mix of apartments being sold has shifted toward much more expensive stock.
The final conclusion does not depend on one index or one quarter. It comes from the convergence of recent evidence across pricing, sales volumes, absorption, financing, supply and affordability, while preserving genuine differences between Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, land and the provincial apartment markets.
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